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The Future of the CAP:
An Independent View
  Agra Europe Outlook for Agriculture
            16 March 2010


        Jack ...
If citizens knew how the
 EU spends €55 billion a
year on farm subsidies...

 Would they approve?
Our method
 Freedom of
 information    Good stories
      +               +
                                Beer
Investig...
6 | | BUSINESS                                                                                                            ...
Three BIG problems with the CAP:

        1. It’s Expensive

       2. It’s Untargeted

         3. It’s Unequal
Three BIG problems with the CAP:

        1. It’s Expensive

       2. It’s Untargeted

         3. It’s Unequal
Growth of the CAP budget
€ billions                            EU-10                                                  EU-1...
EU Budget, 2007-2013

                           Admin

  Jobs, growth,              6%
security, justice,
 foreign policy...
Farm subsidy expenditure, 2007
               € billions
60
         52
45


30


15                12.8
                 ...
Three BIG problems with the CAP:

        1. It’s Expensive

       2. It’s Untargeted

         3. It’s Unequal
Proposed EU Budget: 2010
Photo: NASA
Photo: Laura Leon / IHT
U*0%&)#6#O#U3';)&#&*594#+).*O-,/%&,3#.),:';+#5,-#2)#)X/&).)38#&*59#*-#2%//)&13*)+4#2'/9#*-#+()5*)+#,-:#*-#,2+'3%/)#-%.2)&+...
“In conclusion, the current
system fails to deliver value
for taxpayers’ money. The
underlying lack of logic in
the curren...
Cross Compliance:
   geing paid for obeying the law

“Many, if not all, standards are likely to have
been legal requireme...
Cross Compliance in Scotland, 2008

                   Number of
                                 Amount
                 ...
Targeting policies to objectives

        Objective                              Policy
                                  ...
Three BIG problems with the CAP:

        1. It’s Expensive

       2. It’s Untargeted

         3. It’s Unequal
Top 18% of recipients
get 85% of the money
82 % of beneficiaries get
   less than €5,000
Direct aid, € per hectare - UAA, 2013
600



500



400



300



200



100



 0
      BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT ...
Harvesting cash
on Anglesey
€27,286 / hectare




M & R S Rogers,
Bodrida Brynsiencyn
Wales: SPS Rates, 2008: Top 5

    Recipient         Municipality    € / ha

H W & E E WILLIAMS      PWLLHELI      44,535
...
Wales: SPS Rates, 2008: Boom 5

Recipient    Municipality   € / ha

 JDF JONES   CAERNARFON      1.48

 RL JAMES    CARMA...
Wales: SPS Rates, 2008

€ per hectare   Recipients   Proportion
   500+           1058          6%
  400-500          982 ...
“The payment rates defined in
entitlements vary greatly depending
upon: the historic claims record of the
2005 applicant in...
Direct aid, € per farm worker - AWU, 2013
14,000



12,000



10,000



 8,000



 6,000



 4,000



 2,000



    0
    ...
Average rural development spend, € per hectare - UAA (2013)
250
                                               1,032



20...
How to spend it
- Ecological farming:
 uplands, organic farms...

- Marginal land at risk
of abandonment

- Invest in know...
EU Farm Income Growth
                                                          2000-2008
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...
A post-Fischler selement for the CAP?

Redistribution is politically toxic, but...

- Phase out historic entitlements
- M...
Thanks for listening!

       Jack Thurston
   Co-founder, farmsubsidy.org

   jack@farmsubsidy.org
Jack Thurston: Agra Europe Outlook
Jack Thurston: Agra Europe Outlook
Jack Thurston: Agra Europe Outlook
Jack Thurston: Agra Europe Outlook
Jack Thurston: Agra Europe Outlook
Jack Thurston: Agra Europe Outlook
Jack Thurston: Agra Europe Outlook
Jack Thurston: Agra Europe Outlook
Jack Thurston: Agra Europe Outlook
Jack Thurston: Agra Europe Outlook
Jack Thurston: Agra Europe Outlook
Jack Thurston: Agra Europe Outlook
Jack Thurston: Agra Europe Outlook
Jack Thurston: Agra Europe Outlook
Jack Thurston: Agra Europe Outlook
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Jack Thurston: Agra Europe Outlook

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Slides for talk by Jack Thurston at the 2010 Agra Europe Outlook Conference, 17 March 2010.

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Jack Thurston: Agra Europe Outlook

  1. 1. The Future of the CAP: An Independent View Agra Europe Outlook for Agriculture 16 March 2010 Jack Thurston Co-founder, farmsubsidy.org
  2. 2. If citizens knew how the EU spends €55 billion a year on farm subsidies... Would they approve?
  3. 3. Our method Freedom of information Good stories + + Beer Investigative Public debate policy reporting
  4. 4. 6 | | BUSINESS Business & Media | 21.05.06 CASH COWS WHAT IT COSTS THE TAXPAYER TO DESTABILISE DAIRY MARKETS British export subsidies, by Export subsidy granted, by company, 2004 and 2005 destination country, 2004 and 2005 Fayrefield Foods* £22,149,818 Philpot Dairy Products £21,957,002 SAUDI Dale ARABIA Farm* £19,391,504 £2,147,003 INDIA £1,244,914 Nestle UK £7,442,672 JA N APAN UAE BANGLADESH £1,24 273 £ 44,2 ALGERIA £6,016,605 £3,479,499 £9,413,948 TMC Dairies EGYP YPT (NI) £6,421,069 MEXICO £3,03 340 ,031,340 £7,714,200 PH IPPINE PHILIP NES JAMAICA JA AICA £1,7 ,901 ,708,9 £2,296,9 7 £2 296,987 OMA OMAN Hoogwegt £4,660,97 ,660,973 International £6,016,872 SUDAN THAILA D HAILAND IVORY COAST IVO £3,906,970 £6 06,805 £6,706,80 VENEZUELA £5,722,515 722,515 Lakeland Dairies £2,274,752 (NI) £4,863,754 NIGERIA £11,782,308 IND INDONESIA ESIA £2,94 8 £2,947,118 Eilers & Wheeler Sales £4,009,257 Meadow Foods £3,335,750 KEY F Uhrenholt Dairy £3,084,188 *includes subsidiaries £1 to £4m £4 to £7m £7m+ £0m 5 10 15 20 GRAPHIC: CATH LEVETT PHOTOGRAPH: ALAMY SOURCE: FARMSUBSIDY.COM Who’s creaming off EU subsidies? Exports of cheap European dairy products are crushing the livelihoods of developing world farmers, writes Heather Stewart ritish-based exporters, including known as the EU ‘butter mountain’ cow is one of the most reliable ways of on behalf of the EU, said Britain would Nestle and Dairy Crest, have (‘wine lakes’ were another manifestation Peter Mandelson lifting yourself out of poverty,’ says like to see them abolished. claimed £126m of taxpayers’ of the same problem). But after a barrage agreed to Europe Thurston, who is trying to compile a ‘We would prefer that export refunds
  5. 5. Three BIG problems with the CAP: 1. It’s Expensive 2. It’s Untargeted 3. It’s Unequal
  6. 6. Three BIG problems with the CAP: 1. It’s Expensive 2. It’s Untargeted 3. It’s Unequal
  7. 7. Growth of the CAP budget € billions EU-10 EU-12 EU-15 EU-25 EU-27 ➔ ➔ ➔ ➔ ➔ 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Export subsidies Market support Direct aids Rural development
  8. 8. EU Budget, 2007-2013 Admin Jobs, growth, 6% security, justice, foreign policy, overseas aid, 43% Farm subsidies climate, energy, 51% environment, R&D, science & innovation...
  9. 9. Farm subsidy expenditure, 2007 € billions 60 52 45 30 15 12.8 ? 0 EU National Regional & local
  10. 10. Three BIG problems with the CAP: 1. It’s Expensive 2. It’s Untargeted 3. It’s Unequal
  11. 11. Proposed EU Budget: 2010
  12. 12. Photo: NASA
  13. 13. Photo: Laura Leon / IHT
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
  15. 15. “In conclusion, the current system fails to deliver value for taxpayers’ money. The underlying lack of logic in the current direct payment system, with no link between Through the green subsidies received and smokescreen public goods delivered must be urgently addressed.” How is CAP cross compliance delivering for biodiversity? BirdLife International, November 2009
  16. 16. Cross Compliance: geing paid for obeying the law “Many, if not all, standards are likely to have been legal requirements for some years before cross compliance was introduced in 2005... ...the overall value of the Single Payment [is] in the majority of cases…likely to vastly exceed the total related costs.” Institute for European Environment Policy, 2007
  17. 17. Cross Compliance in Scotland, 2008 Number of Amount payments Subsidies 48,603 €541 million Cross compliance 310 €203,121 breaches Proportion 0.6% 0.0004%
  18. 18. Targeting policies to objectives Objective Policy Incentivise ecological performance; Preserve natural resources regulation: polluter pays Target poorest rural households; Safeguard rural livelihoods invest in economic diversification More open markets; skills, Reliable, affordable food supply knowledge & new technology Income support for poor households, Preventing hunger food stamp type policies Skills, marketing, protection of High quality production intellectual property
  19. 19. Three BIG problems with the CAP: 1. It’s Expensive 2. It’s Untargeted 3. It’s Unequal
  20. 20. Top 18% of recipients get 85% of the money
  21. 21. 82 % of beneficiaries get less than €5,000
  22. 22. Direct aid, € per hectare - UAA, 2013 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK
  23. 23. Harvesting cash on Anglesey
  24. 24. €27,286 / hectare M & R S Rogers, Bodrida Brynsiencyn
  25. 25. Wales: SPS Rates, 2008: Top 5 Recipient Municipality € / ha H W & E E WILLIAMS PWLLHELI 44,535 LLANFAIR M & R S ROGERS 27,286 PWLLGWYNGYLL TG HARRIS DYFED 26,848 W L RAYMOND & HAVERFORD WEST 26,008 LAWRENCE E R OWEN & SON HOLYHEAD 21,814
  26. 26. Wales: SPS Rates, 2008: Boom 5 Recipient Municipality € / ha JDF JONES CAERNARFON 1.48 RL JAMES CARMARTHEN 1.14 HG MORGAN NARBERTH 0.75 ML THOMAS CLYDACH 0.36 DT OWEN CAERNARFON 0.01
  27. 27. Wales: SPS Rates, 2008 € per hectare Recipients Proportion 500+ 1058 6% 400-500 982 6% 300-400 2602 16% 200-300 5376 32% 100-200 4815 29% less than 100 1908 11%
  28. 28. “The payment rates defined in entitlements vary greatly depending upon: the historic claims record of the 2005 applicant in the period 2000 - 2002, any National Reserve award, the volume of Milk Quota held on 31 March 2005, and the Tonneage of Sugar Beet Contract held in 2005.”
  29. 29. Direct aid, € per farm worker - AWU, 2013 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK
  30. 30. Average rural development spend, € per hectare - UAA (2013) 250 1,032 200 150 100 50 0 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK
  31. 31. How to spend it - Ecological farming: uplands, organic farms... - Marginal land at risk of abandonment - Invest in knowledge and skills: resource use, marketing, diversification - Measures to address price & income volatility
  32. 32. EU Farm Income Growth 2000-2008 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"#$!%&&'!()*+,-./-*0.!1$0*!! "#$#%&'(#)*!&+!*,#!-./012%*2/-%!0)1&(#!0)!*,#!34567! &$#/!*,#!68889688:!;'<!'#/0&=>!0)!*#/(?!&+!-))2-%!1,-).#!;@<!-)=!12(2%-*0$#!./&A*,!;6888BC88<! 15% 130 10% 10% 9% 120 9% 5% 110 4% Cumulative growth 1% 0% 100 Annual growth -3% -5% 90 -5% -10% -9% 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ! 234!3*56+7+580.!9!:5-*,$;!<-*57/0/
  33. 33. A post-Fischler selement for the CAP? Redistribution is politically toxic, but... - Phase out historic entitlements - More conditionality on area payments - ‘Public money for public goods’ rhetoric - Price/income volatility measures - optional? - Budget cuts - 30% by 2020, but how? - Co-financing - compulsory, rates vary by measure and by country
  34. 34. Thanks for listening! Jack Thurston Co-founder, farmsubsidy.org jack@farmsubsidy.org

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