Anticipation: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
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This is a talk I gave at the first Velocity Europe Conference, in November 2011. The slides won't make too much sense without the video, which should be here:
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Anticipation: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
- 1. ANTICIPATION John Allspaw SVP, Tech Ops Velocity Europe 2011 Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 2. PREPARED? Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 3. Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 4. (Anticipation) (Response) Knowing Knowing Knowing Knowing What What What What To Expect To Look For To Do Has Happened (Monitoring) (Learning) Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 5. (Anticipation) (Response) Knowing Knowing Knowing Knowing What What What What To Expect To Look For To Do Has Happened (Monitoring) (Learning) Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 6. Design Work Response Learning Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 7. “What could possibly go wrong?” Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 8. REQUISITE IMAGINATION Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 9. Architectural reviews Go or No-Go meetings “Game Day” exercises Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 10. DESIGN Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 11. Possible Foreseeable Situations Situations Situations Situations Considered By Considered By Considered By Novice Designer Average Designer Expert Designer Adamski and Westrum, 2003 Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 12. “No problem! I design adaptive systems.” Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 13. Deepwater Horizon Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 14. Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 15. Challenger Shuttle Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 16. Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 17. Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 18. Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 19. Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 20. Adaptive Systems Expected Variation Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 21. Adaptive Systems Expected Variation Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 22. Adaptive Systems Expected Variation Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 23. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance Expected Variation Control compensation decompensation Woods, 2011 Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 24. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance Expected Variation Control compensation decompensation Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 25. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance SYSTEMS Target Control compensation decompensation Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 26. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance NETWORKS Target Control compensation decompensation Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 27. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance STAFF Target Control compensation decompensation Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 28. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance TOOLS Target Control compensation decompensation Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 29. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance FUNDING Target Control compensation decompensation Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 30. New Disturbances Compensation is Arise Exhausted Disturbance ANYTHING Target Control compensation decompensation Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 31. WORK Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 32. Predictability Given situation Given individual Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 33. Uncertainty Of Events Unknowable Unthought-of situations Unknown Potential situations Known Anticipation Skill (Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011) Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 34. Uncertainty Of Events Unknowable Unthought-of situations Unknown Potential situations Known Anticipation Skill (Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011) Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 35. Uncertainty Of Events Unknowable Unthought-of situations Unknown Potential situations Known Anticipation Skill (Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011) Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 36. Uncertainty Of Events Unthought-of Unknowable situations Unknown Potential situations Known Anticipation Skill (Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011) Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 37. RESPONSE Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 38. RESPONSE Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 39. RESPONSE Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 40. LEARNING Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 41. TIME Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 42. SUCCEED MATURELY Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 43. DANGER Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 44. “What an immense mass of evil must result...from allowing men to assume the right of anticipating what may happen.” Leo Tolstoy Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 45. ? Haphazard Paranoid Cowboy Paralysis Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 46. Sources of Anticipation Traumatic Mature Experience Requisite Imagination Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 47. (Anticipation) (Response) Knowing Knowing Knowing Knowing What What What What To Expect To Look For To Do Has Happened (Monitoring) (Learning) Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 48. FEAR Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 49. CONFIDENCE Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 50. REQUISITE IMAGINATION Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 51. Constant Sense Of UNEASE Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 52. CONFIDENCE Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 53. Homework! Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 54. 1. What do you expect to happen? 2.What might fail during this scenario? Homework! Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 55. First: individuals Then: As a group Homework! Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 56. Expectations? Potential failures? Group versus individual? ? Homework! Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 57. CONFIDENCE Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 58. The End Thursday, November 10, 2011
- 59. References Material in this talk comes from a variety of sources. These should be considered mandatory reading for operating and designing any complex systems. • Resilience Engineering in Practice, Ashgate (http://bit.ly/t7cnXC ) • Ch 10, Handbook of Cognitive Task Design, CRC Press (http:// amzn.to/s9Qo8n) • Resilience Engineering Perspectives, Ashgate (http://bit.ly/rFVtvo) Thursday, November 10, 2011