Sample of my one day workshop given at SDP Asia on Application Stores, Developer Communities, Content, Games and Widgets: Strategic Market Review and Operator Opportunity / Risk Analysis

1. Application Stores, Developer Communities,
Content, Games and Widgets: Strategic
Market Review and Operator Opportunity /
Risk Analysis
Alan Quayle
Business and Service Development
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© 2008 Alan Quayle
www.alanquayle.com/blog

2. Landscape Operator
Activities
Opportunities Strategies &
& Threats Action Plans
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

3. Morning Session
• 9.30 Market Landscape : Review The ‘Open’ Initiatives And Their Business
Opportunities & Impact
– Joint Innovation Labs (Vodafone, Verizon, China Mobile and Softbank)
Can a market of 1 billion customers ever be wrong?
– GSMA’s OneAPI (Network API specification based upon ParlayX)
Will customers / application developers pay?
– OMTP's (Open Mobile Terminal Platform) BONDI (handset based API)
Will this enable operator bypass?
– LiMo (Linux Mobile) and Android
True open source versus a proprietary java virtual machine
– Web-centric initiatives such as Open Ajax Alliance and W3C widgets
Converging web and telco on the device
– Consumer electronics and OS platforms and strategies (e.g. Nokia Ovi, Apple App Store, etc)
and the rise of internet retailers (e.g. Amazon.com – Kindle is just their first step!)
• 11.00 Morning Refreshments
• 11.30 Updates & Analysis On Telecom Operator Activities And Initiatives
– O2 Litmus (open co-development community)
– Orange Partner (leading example of a traditional operator developer community)
– Telus’s success with OneAPI versus Three Australia’s challenges
– Cricket’s MyHomeStore (widgets for all phones – the re-emergence of the ODP)
– Telenor’s CPA (Content Provider Access) and Playground – the impact of a common API
across all operators within a country
– Verizon AppZone – aggregating content through a single Storefront
• 12.30 Networking Lunch
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

4. Afternoon Session
• 1.45 Quantifying the Opportunities and Threats
– Reviewing and quantifying the success of the consumer electronics (e.g. Apple
and Nokia) and operating system (e.g. Android and Microsoft) app stores versus
the existing $31B mobile content market
What are the key learning points for operators
What should / should not be copied?
– Within the app stores what are the opportunities and emerging bypass threats to
the core revenue streams of voice and messaging?
– What is the revenue and margin potential?
• 3.15 Afternoon Refreshments
• 3.45 Moving Forward: Strategies & Action Plans
– Do operators really need developer communities or is content ingestion
enough?
– What should an integrated storefront strategy look like?
– What are an operator’s differentiators?
– Why should customer relationship management be part of that strategy?
– Why will customers use an operator’s storefront?
• 4.45 Close of Workshop
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

5. Market Landscape
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

6. Structure
• App Store Ecosystem
• Definitions
• How JIL, W3C, OpenAPI, BONDI, AJAX, and SDP all fit
together
• OneAPI and Telus
• BONDI, JIL, Zembly, OneApp
• Impact on the SDP
• Apple
• Nokia Ovi
• Android
• Developer perspective
• Community Magic Quadrants
• What an Operator must do
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

7. App Store Ecosystem
Consumer Electronics / OS Store
Developers Developer Direct
Store Front
/ Content Community Relationship
StoreFront
Developer Ingestion Direct
Store Front
Communities Management Relationship
Operator Store
Ingestion
Operator Management Direct
Apps Store Front
Developer Relationship
Community
Store Front strategy is independent of access technology. Bottomline: corner stores
still survive despite Walmart - because they know the customer and are convenient
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

8. Application Ecosystem
Application or Content Developer
Dial2do
Application or Content Aggregator
/ Publisher
Sony
Store specific aggregation
HP, Handmark, Operator, and
Operator development community Application ingestion approval / testing
Operator (content standards) and
possibly 3rd party (Device
Application store infrastructure Anywhere) and/or standards body
/ backend operations (IT) (Symbian/Java)
Accenture, Operator, Volantis,
Handmark
Application store brand,
marketing and commercials
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Operator
© 2008 Alan Quayle

9. Definitions
• Widgets
– User interface (rendered in browser)
– 3 things: HTML, CSS, JavaScript
Though there are variations: e.g. Facebook defines FBML, FBJS
• Data Services
– Back-end logic – running on a web-server
For example: JavaScript 1.6 including E4X (processing XML
objects in JavaScript)
– Called from widgets or from other services
• API
– Externally available value-added services
Generally a RESTful services
Described by WADL(Web Application Description Language)
– Called from other widgets and services
– Requires some entity to manage the security, policies and
quality of service (e.g. Mashery, or a mash-up server)
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

10. How it all Fits Together
Network
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

11. Bringing in the SDP – Will it be Bypassed?
SDP can mash-up
social network
APIs and
communication
network policies /
APIs (Zembly)
Network
Client APIs will
substitute some
network capabilities SDP
(e.g. location.)
Policy and API
management can
come from SDP
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

12. GSMA’s OneAPI
GSMA’s OneAPI provides a common network API across
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most popular API frameworks
© 2008 Alan Quayle

13. Telus Provides a Useful Reference Case
Telus has focused on business services, with strategic partners.
Accelerated service innovation from 4 to 40 services per year.
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

14. Mapping the Operator Developer Community
Landscape
Enterprise App Consumer App
Verizon
China Sprint ADP Vodafone
Telus
Orange Mobile Betavine
AT&T
Three API
BT Ribbit
Cricket
Telenor Globe
CPA
Enterprise IT Content
Only Telus and BT Ribbit have a solid enterprise focus, Orange Partner, VDC
and China Mobile are attempts at enterprise, they lack focus
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

15. Mapping the Consumer Electronics / Operating
System Developer Community Landscape
Enterprise App Consumer App
Android Palm
Handango Samsung Facebook
Sun
RIM
Salesforce.com Microsoft
AppExchange Getjar
iPhone Nokia Ovi
Enterprise IT Content
Apple recently executed a plan supporting enterprise app developers and
internal enterprise IT developers (those who do not sell on the store)
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

16. Capabilities Application Developers Seek
Potential Telco API capabilities (from App Vendor Survey)
• Single sign-on • Authentication & Single Sign-on
High • Presence (device, application, call state)
•
•
Home Network Enabler
Content Delivery
• Address Book API •
and Availability
Device Capabilities / Software
• Policy (Quality of Service)
• IPTV enablers
• Age Verification • Location (accuracies and freshness),
Proximity, Heading, Speed • IPTV STB enablers
• Preferences (policies or rules) • Content Enablers
• Billing/Charging • Context – a combination of presence,
location, device status, application status,
• Collaboration Enablers
• VoIP / SIP call control including invoking
• Identity/Authentication •
meeting status (calendar), etc.
Customer data (business intelligence)
supplementary services
• Call Control • Fulfilment and other BOSS capabilities
• Location • Messaging • Digital Rights Management
• Network address book • Device Management
• Messaging • Group List Server (buddy lists) • Local dial in number provisioning
Popularity
• Enterprise Mobilization • Ringtone purchase integration
• Profile API •
•
VoIP / SIP: tone insertion
Call Flow: ACD, IVR, CRM, Helpdesk
• Video-ringtone platform
• Subscription status
• File Browsing •
•
Charging / Billing
Call Log / Call events
•
•
Mobile Video
CDR number frequency search
• Directory
• Browser based API • Message Store
• Calling Name dip
• Presence And the list goes on, much further on….. Prioritization is critical
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© 2008 Alan Quayle
• SIP/VOIP/Call Control
• Mobile Lookup Developers are excited about the
• Connection status many capabilities and information
• Discoverability an operator has available; but
• Short codes getting the community / business
• Plus lots and lots more…… basics is more important
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

17. Distribution Discovery
Developers’ Problems an Operator must Solve
Predictable Clear Path
Process to Cash
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

18. Operator Activities
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

19. Structure
• Vodafone Betavine
• Verizon Developer Community
• Orange Partner
• Telenor Content Provider Access
• Cricket Communications
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

20. Vodafone Betavine Analysis (Deep Dive)
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

21. Structure
• Betavine home screen and focus
• Developer quotes
• Community activity
• Customer engagement
• Developer perception
• Vodafone’s application strategy and business model
• Vodafone’s App Store strategy
• Vodafone’s widget focus (obsession)
• Home screen, App Store and MyWeb (widget engine)
• Channels, partnering and sharing
• Betavine going forward
• Operator Impact
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

22. Cricket Communications: Phone-Top Experience
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

23. Cricket’s Phone Top Experience
HomeScreen is front and center of the
customer’s phone experience,
Services included incMyHomeScreen:
• Website widget, and of course any
website can be presented as a widget
• Storefront widget for graphics, tones,
themes, games or ringbacks. Here
Cricket can aggregate a number of
catalogs to present a unified
storefront;
• Account status widget to see the
prepaid balance, call detail records,
status of orders, etc; and
• Of course the usual weather, news,
gossip, entertainment widgets;
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

24. Cricket MyHomeScreen: On Device Portal
Example
Cricket is an example of a phone-top
experience that can work across all its
phones (Brew-based operator).
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Integrates both widgets and App Store.
© 2008 Alan Quayle

25. Cricket MyHomeScreen
Store Front experience is the classic ODP
experience covering tones, graphics and games
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

26. Cricket’s Impact on Operators
• Cricket provides an example of the phone-top experience in
practice
– Vodafone are only trialing, Cricket has deployed, Verizon will follow
Cricket’s lead
– Operator must have a clear plan on how developers apps will be
presented in a phone-top experience
• Cricket does not have the scale to create its own developer
community
– It will need to partner
– Aggregates a number of existing Brew stores at present
• Its focused is on creating a simple, easy to use, front-and-center
experience that can
– Educate ALL customers on the additional services Cricket can provide
– Drive consumption of data services and content
• For more info on Cricket’s MyHomeScreen check out
http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2009/06/crickets-myhomescreen-
shows-th.html
Cricket provides a deployment example of the integrated (app, content and
widget) phone-top experience
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

27. Threats and Opportunities
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

28. Mobile Application Revenue could reach $6B by 2013, 2008 is was $118M
(US), $240M (Global)
Broader Mobile Data Revenue breakdown by
type of service, 2008-2014
Source: Pyramid Research Mobile Data Forecasts, Q1 2009
$6B Mobile application revenue is part of broader $46B mobile data
revenue opportunity by 2013
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

29. Strategic Context: Re-engineering the Web
Era Date Characteristic Access Operator Implications
Development of the <100kbps Focus on infrastructure,
Web 1.0 ’90-’05 capacity expansion and mass
basic platform.
market connectivity.
Focus on user Partner with media
experience, open <10Mbps companies, social networking,
Web 2.0 ’00-’10 programmable systems, advertising based models, IP
connecting people. control and QoS.
Web becomes intelligent, Fundamental shift in business
understand / anticipates <100Mbps model, dumb or smart pipe?
Web 3.0 ’10-’20 users needs – rise of the Question mark of operators’
‘trusted agent.’ role as ‘trusted agent.’
Can Operators become the Trusted Agent?
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

30. Strategic Context: Power of Devices drives Peer to Peer
Assumptions Shattered
Always Online Intelligently Connected
Faster CPUs, 3D graphics
Multiple PDP context Push as well as pull
Massive storage
Multiple access Pervasive P2P
High definition displays
Application driven Smart UIs
Media centric
Web-centric Context aware
Smartphone penetration >50%
Intelligence is now at the edge
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

31. Critical Factor: Customer’s Perceptions are Changing
User doesn’t care if Applications are no
message delivered longer ‘web’ or
Other
by SMS, MMS, IM Voice ‘telecom’ services –
or email. they’re just apps.
Utility
Messaging
Subscribers are no Productivity
longer ‘voice
Mobile broadband
subscribers,’ PIM starts to substitute
they’re Internet
fixed broadband
subscribers – voice
is just an app.
Games
Access to
Source: Nokia Browsing Multimedia
multimedia is no
Smartphone 360 Survey
Time allocated to
longer constrained
different applications by the network
Voice makes up an increasingly small percentage of a smartphone’s
usage, critical to embed such capabilities into other apps/processes
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

32. Strategic Context: Web-based Service Providers are
Innovating Faster in Service Providers Core Business
And customers now expect this rate of innovation from their service
providers
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

33. Strategic Context: Which means that…..
Fixed and mobile Services independent of Rapid usage growth and
Broadband is an enabler the network innovation
•Broadband is the •Broadband is an •Growth of Web 2.0
growth engine for enablers for all services community services
telecom. •Market boundaries •“Freemium” models
•Increasing access diminish as customers •‘Boiling Frog’
capacity increases expectations change. expansion into voice
web-service •Move from vertically to
capabilities horizontally integrated
•Web 2.0 start to cannibalize telco’s services
•Voice, messaging, IPTV
•Multi-play becomes multi-access
Operators must act now or become a dumb pipe
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

34. Why Operators are Considering SDPs
Access & Intelligent Wholesale
Applications Content
Distribution Connectivity Brokering
Utility access where
Bit Pipe differentiation is price and
network quality.
Open access, controlled
and monetized QoS, Billing,
Smart Pipe Data Mining, Capability
Wholesale, Ad Broker
Content and Service Provider
There will be no clear cut between the different scenarios, multiple
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business models and revenue modules will co-exist.
© 2008 Alan Quayle

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© 2008 Alan Quayle

36. Fragmentation has Stifled and is now Killing the Industry
20,000 Phones
*
750 Operators
25 OS *
375,000,000
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

37. An Operator’s Product Development Process
Find Budget
Opportunity Market
Identified Research
18-30 month 12-18 month
s s
New product
Re-Launch Launch development process
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

38. What’s Changed?
Expectations
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

39. What customers expect
18-30 month 6-12 months
s
4 months Weekly
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

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© 2008 Alan Quayle

41. High Street Subsidized Network
Phones Control
S to r e s
Customer
Relationship
Ecosystem Billing
Control Relationship
Brand
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

42. Strategies and Action Plans
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

43. The Three Pillars of an Operators Application Strategy
Services Community Contextually
Focus Focus Relevant
Use all stores, Friends list Use
operators sell should be your knowledge of
services! Favs list customers
Trusted Agent
Billing, privacy protection, subscriber data management
Operators must focus on what they’re good at – not what’s currently
43 fashionable thinking
© 2008 Alan Quayle

44. We’ve been talking about it for over a decade,
but now its the customer that’s going to decide
Utility Service
Connectivity Provider
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© 2008 Alan Quayle

45. I’ve recently completed an “IMS Status Report”
• Independent and quantified view of what is happening in the industry on IMS
(IP Multimedia Subsystem),
– 137 interviews, 101 operators around the world
– Operator and supplier case studies
• Key Findings
– IMS remains niche, with only 8% of those operators surveyed deploying IMS.
Note, none of those operators have completed the conversion of their network, all
considered it a 5-7 year process.
– Another 12% are in an extended field trial, which is characterized by services
being launched on the IMS core, with in some cases paying customers; but a
decision has not yet been made to commit to service migration onto the IMS core.
– IMS does not appear to be entering a period of rapid adoption, rather a linear
growth in initial adoption over the next 5 years, with by 2014 about 32% of
operators commencing an IMS deployment.
– Regionally, NAR (North America Region) provides the bulk of the growth in years
2010 and 2011, while EMEA (Europe Middle East and Africa) and APAC (Asia
Pacific) regions provide the bulk of growth in later years.
– Lack of business case, lack of standards compliance and BOSS (Business and
Operational Support System) integration were the top three barriers to adoption as
identified by operators.
http://www.mindcommerce.com/Publications/IMS_Status.php
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© 2008 Alan Quayle