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GBF2014 - Glenn McGillivray - Cities in the Crosshairs
1. Cities in the crosshairs
The trend to more and larger
catastrophic losses in Canada
Glenn McGillivray
Managing Director
Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
October 2, 2014
2. Number of cat. events 1970-2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Swiss Re, sigma
5. Global disaster damage
Annual insurance disaster claims, billions, adjusted for inflation
20 fold increase since 1970s!
6. Canadian disaster damage
Number of events
0204060801001201401601801960s1970s1980s1990s2000sMeteorological - HydrologicalGeological
7. 0 100 200 300
other
winter storm
tornado/hurricane
wildfire
thunderstorm
flood
Canadian disaster data base, number of events in Canada, 1950-2011
Canadian catastrophes
8. Canadian cats 2009
Winter storms in eastern Canada (Feb. 2)
$25 million
Hamilton rain (July 26)
$100-to $150 million
Alberta wind etc. (August 2-3)
$500 million
Mont Laurier tornado (August 4)
$6 million
Manitoba hail etc. (August 13-15)
$50-to $75 million
Ontario tornadoes (August 20)
$50-to $100 million
Tropical storms Bill & Danny (August 23 & 29)
$10 & 25 million
Source: Aon Benfield (Canada)
9. Canadian cats 2010
Saskatchewan storms (Spring)
Leamington & Harrow tornadoes (June 6)
Midland tornado (June 23)
Calgary hailstorm (July 12)
>$400 million
Hurricane Igor (September 21)
10. Canadian cats 2011
Storms in Ontario & Quebec (March)
Storms in Ontario & Quebec (April)
Wildfire in Slave Lake, Alberta (May 15)
$700 million
Flooding in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec (Spring)
Hail, tornadoes and wind in Alberta, Man. & Sask. (July 18/19)
Tornado in Goderich (August 21)
Hurricane Irene (August 28 to 30)
Alberta windstorm (November 27)
11. Canadian cats 2012
Flooding and wind in Ontario and Quebec (May 26 to 29)
Flooding, wind and hail in Alberta (July 12)
Flooding, wind and hail in Ontario (July 23)
Hail and wind in Alberta (July 26)
Flooding, wind and hail in Alberta (August 12)
12. Canadian cats 2013
Two small events early in the year
Southern Alberta flood (June 19-21)
$1.7 billion (preliminary)
GTA flood (July 8-9)
>$850 million (preliminary)
Ontario/Quebec storm (July 19)
13. 2013 high water marks
Canada’s costliest and third costliest insured loss events within two weeks of each other
Ice storm now the second costliest –took 15 years!
Two billion dollar natural catastrophes in one year –a first!
Second place event (Slave Lake) fell not one, but two notches to fourth place
5thconsecutive year of billion-dollar events
24. Billion-dollar years
1998 –due solely to the ice storm
2005 –due greatly to the August 19 GTA rainstorm
2009 –due greatly to back-to-back windstorms in Alberta
2010 –due greatly to large hailstorm in Alberta
2011 –due greatly to Slave Lake wildfire
2012 –due greatly to one large and two smaller hailstorms in Alberta
2013 –due to the Southern Alberta flood and GTA flood
First time ever for two billion-dollar events
2014 -$600-to $700 million so far
25. Why are losses rising?
More people and property at risk
Aging infrastructure
The climate is changing
26. New normal
“The Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction (ICLR) reports that large insured losses from extreme weather appear to be ‘the new normal’ for the Canadian insurance industry, expecting that large-loss years will no longer be rarities.” Canadian Underwriter (November 6, 2012)
27. New normal
Increasing liability concerns
Corporate/professional
Directors and officers
Errors and omissions
Public
Municipal
28. What can be done?
Loss prevention
Risk transfer
40. Massive gap between total and insured losses shows insurance potential
Natural and man-made catastrophe losses 1980-2012, in USD billion (2012 prices) 0501001502002503003504001980198519901995200020052010Insured lossesUninsured losses
41. Risk transfer
Insurance considerations
Rising cost
Homeowners
Businesses
Governments
Availability
Restrictions
Sewer backup
Commercial flood insurance in Alberta
42. When the feds say we have a problem…
”The rising cost of natural disasters and the financial burden on Ottawa is the country’s biggest public safety risk”… Public Safety Canada, 2013/14, Report on Plans and Priorities