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philosophy of statistics philosophy of science replication crisis p-values severity severe testing error statistics statistical inference statistics significance tests likelihood principle deborah mayo r. a. fisher foundations of statistics statistical significance tests bayes factors replicability role of probability in inference error probabilities neyman-pearson statistical methodology asa 2016 statement on p-values reproducibility confidence intervals evidence induction statistical reforms statistics wars replication paradox biasing selection effects big data bayesian inference j. neyman lse ph500 d. mayo richard royall falsification reformulation of statistical tests experimental philosophy fisher psychology association for psychological science (aps) 2015 c higgs boson sir david cox frequentist statistics popper problem of induction replication reforms modeling casual inference asa e. pearson asa task force statement 2021 error control aris spanos stephen senn duality of tests & confidence intervals (cis) data-dredging testing reasoning higgs discovery severity vs. rubbing off capabilities of methods capability & severity non-rejection fallacies of rejection statistical inference as severe testing fisherian tests likelihood bernoulli trials meta-methodology roles of probability in inference default priors stopping rules revised role of error probabilities jeffreys-lindley paradox statistics war double-counting selection effects american statistical association calibration bayesian statistics error statistics statistical inference significance testing reproducibility psychology confirmation repligate bayesian vs frequentist statistics reliability frequentist inference background assumptions logic philosophy & practice bayesianism methodological probability probativeness research methods statistical testing statistical testing in psych statistical philosophy statistical analysis theoretical statistics foundations disclaimers malfunction errors gatekeepers jon williamson associations fallacious inferences evidential plualism stephan guttinger evidential pluralism abolish qrps grp-qrps-fraud local methodology local inference changing methodology qrps questionable research practice best measures vary don't ban tools use tools correctly methods & theories fanelli information-compression logic meta-research meta-science meta-analysis complexity right question simulations mixed models math literally vs. researchers transparency invalid inference mathematical abstractions keynes margherita harris ipcc weight of evidence misspecification testing 2 cultures economics machine learning bonferroni subgroup analyzes prior probabilities gwas multiplicity in science james o. berger cmu multiple hypothesis tests graphical model searches regression data dredging clark glymour psa 2022 suzanne thornton min-ge xie frequentists inference credible intervals confidence distributions texas sharpshooter fallacy psa 22 legitimate data-dredging multiplicity nature of probability likelihood priniciple r.a. egon pearson neyman statistical tests' models mathematical modeling c. hennig replication studies daniel lakens nejm guidelines relevant varability selective inference yoav benjamini statistis wars skeptical user fiducial probability r.a. fisher socially aware data science wsl 2019 editorial wasserstein replicability & significance bias editors role pradeu psa 2021 philosophy in science (pins) lemoine bibliometrics gtr eclipse tests severe tests xu latham & wilson lab origins covid-19 registered reports de groot meehl bem novelty preregistration trustworthiness trust reproducibility crisis david hand default posterior probability likelihood ratio generous to alternative matching contrasting bayes factors berger and delampady jeffreys type prior p-value vs posterior bent: bad evidence-no test spike & smear casella and r. berger do p-values exaggerate the evidence? j. berger and sellke relationship power & sample size bayes/fisher disagreement redefine statistical significance severity interpretation of a rejection test t+ high energy particle physics o'hagan lindley 5 sigman effect fev/sev new justification for ci confidence intervals-problems frequentist feuds likelihoodists vs. significance testers fallacies of non-rejection large sample size criticisms of p-values water plant example 3 steps in n-p tests p-hacking e. s. pearson role for probability in statistical inference erich lehmann statistics debates ian hacking statistics battles irreplication diagnostic screening (ds) model of tests j. berger peace treaty fisher-neyman & pearson dispute 21 word solution spurious p-values fishing key statistical conflicts look elsewhere effect (lee) sev principle for statistical significance p-value police fisher's testing principle statistical fluctuations 5 sigma effect duality tests & conf. intervals howlers & chestnuts sensitivity function interpreting negative results large n-problem sev frequentist principle of evidence (fev) hacking glymour paradox of irrelevant conjunctions logic of statistical inference measures of confirmation uniformity of nature justifying induction asymmetry of falsification enumerative induction inductive logicians vs deductive testers demarcation carnap formal epistemology likelihood ratio parameter exercises affirming the consequent detach conclusion categorical syllogism version of modus ponens deductively valid argument statistical modus tollens logic of simple significance tests soundness disjunctive syllogism modus ponens modus tollens premises argument valid vs. invalid unification optional stopping law of likelihood bad evidence no test (bent) statistical crisis in science psa 2018 likelihood principle violations large-n problem esp-bem-bayes p-values exaggerate use-constructed predesignation severity criterion novel evidence biased data data-driven science paradigm shift bright lines industrialization of the scientific process epidemiology intentions sampling distribution posterior probability overstate evidence against the null pre-registration biased selection effects critical challenges-replies n-p testing inductive logic peirce fidicual normative epistemology nancy reid probativism workshop on probability and learning power vs severity post-data columbia fallacies of non-statistically significant results error correction statistical fallacies bayes false positivies reliablity exploratory research role for philosophers scientific methodology fraudbusting connecting statistical claims to causal claims liklihood principle nonsignificant results nhst technical activism replication spanos spurious correlation frequentists statistics p values statistical foundations logical flaws birnbaum d. mayo statisticism scientism debunking smeesters affair geraerts "memory paper" affair scientific integrity data analysis edwards deming stan young phd failure to replicate human medical observational studies auxiliary hypotheses duhem's problem mis-specification (m-s) testing accept/reject procedures histomorphology forensic anthropology fallacies of acceptance and rejection null hypothesis inductive inference severity excel program power hypothesis testing gold standard estimation central limit theorem interval estimation point estimation statistical fraud busting uses of probability inference scientific method(s) probability