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The global context of our work
Major developments since the last company review
16th April 2019 – 23rd July 2019
Evidence for the climate imperative for
our mission continues to clock up fast
Just one example from many….
7th Jan
2016
16th Jun
2019
The Greenland ice sheet is melting unusually fast
this summer
Reminder: if the entire sheet mel...
Evidence for the speed and potency
of the global energy transition
is also building fast
Notably….
7th Jan
2016
29th May
2019
83 % of solar PV & 77% of onshore wind due 2020
will produce cheaper electricity than any fossi...
7th Jan
2016
18th Jun
2019
Solar PV is the fastest growing energy technology,
and in an increasing number of countries
The...
7th Jan
2016
31st May
2019
Up to 70 TW of solar PV feasibly envisioned by 2050
(10 by 2030), providing most global energy
...
7th Jan
2016
13th Jun
2019
“Solar’s role in delivering net zero is being vastly
underestimated in the UK”
So say LUT unive...
7th Jan
2016
27th Jun
2019
100% of Scotland’s electricity came from
renewables in Q1 2019, and full year expected 2020
Sur...
7th Jan
2016
16th Jun
2019
Germany to back EU-wide target for net zero
emissions by 2050, joining 8 others
Belgium, Denmar...
7th Jan
2016
12th Jun
2019
UK government opts for zero net carbon emissions
by 2050 as a new target in the Climate Act
Mak...
7th Jan
2016
19th Jun
2019
Two thirds of British want faster climate action
than zero net emissions by 2050: new poll
Incr...
7th Jan
2016
4th Jun
2019
Worlds biggest companies see a trillion dollars of
climate risk, but around double that in benef...
7th Jan
2016
20th May
2019
Fund managers overseeing $10.2 trillion finds
86% call on OGI to Paris-align business plans
UKS...
New Mercer analysis shows where investor
returns are to be found in a 2˚C world
7th Jan
2016
22nd Apr
2019
“Investors need...
7th Jan
2016
2nd May
2019
Zero emissions possible well before 2050: an
argument from the heart of UK Conservatism, and…
“T...
BUT
We are still far short of the
necessary tipping point
for example….
7th Jan
2016
6th May
2019
Renewable capacity growth worldwide stalled in
2018 after two decades of strong expansion: IEA
“...
Worldwide investments in renewable energy
hits a six-year low in H1 2019
7th Jan
2016
10th Jul
2019
Source: Bloomberg NEF
...
7th Jan
2016
11th Jun
2019
Carbon emissions from the global energy industry
rose at the fastest rate in almost a decade in...
7th Jan
2016
9th May
2019
Fossil-fuel subsidies hit a “staggering”
$5.7 trillion in 2017: IMF
“Efficient fossil fuel prici...
7th Jan
2016
17th Apr
2019
Carney: urgent reallocation of capital needed by
financial sector in order to survive climate c...
The incumbency’s rearguard action
is robust and resilient
….but its sophistry is increasingly transparent
and it will be i...
7th Jan
2016
20th May
2019
Coal supporters win Australian national election
despite strong climate concerns among citizens...
7th Jan
2016
1st Jun
2019
Investment soars in exchange traded funds
designed to address the world’s ills
From $5 bn in 201...
7th Jan
2016
4th Jun
2019
“We are listening to Greta”: Oil and Gas UK
CEO Deirdre Michie
“We are clear that climate change...
7th Jan
2016
14th Jun
2019
Only 15% of the world’s top 500 companies by
market cap are in line with Paris climate goals
Es...
A landmark of seismic importance: first mention of
oil-and-gas shorting opportunities in the FT
7th Jan
2016
3rd Jul
2019
7th Jan
2016
21st May
2019
“Just about every shale company that I keep track
of suffered negative free cash flows in Q1 20...
US fracker with no positive free cash flow since
2010 sells at stock price almost half price a year ago
7th Jan
2016
15th ...
FTSE reclassifies “oil and gas producers” as
“non-renewable energy”
7th Jan
2016
3rd Jul
2019
Governments and firms in 28 countries sued over
climate crisis in 1,300 legal actions since 1990
7th Jan
2016
4th Jul
2019...
As for the UK
UK must act on emissions if it is not to be
embarrassed - legally - before COP26 in 18 months
7th Jan
2016
10th Jul
2019
S...
7th Jan
2016
20th Jun
2019
EDF faces new cost overruns and delays of up to
three years at Flamanville reactor
ASN, the Fre...
7th Jan
2016
28th Apr
2019
UK fracking tsar quits after six months,
blaming “highly successful” eco activists
Former Labou...
So a new report by Prospect finds. Akin to the devastation caused to
coalmining communities in the 1980s, the union says.
...
7th Jan
2016
5th Jun
2019
UK home solar panel installations fall by 94%
in May after subsidies cut (79 MW March to 5 MW Ma...
7th Jan
2016
9th May
2019
Stiff VAT rise on solar panels and batteries makes
installation “entirely uneconomic”, say exper...
All this drama is playing out in a world
where increasing political polarization
has increasing business implications
7th Jan
2016
25th Apr
2019
Global population is “sadder, angrier and more
fearful than ever before”, major poll finds
All ...
It is becoming increasingly difficult for
business to be apolitical
….it looks as though brands are going to have
pick sid...
Press release from department says increasing export capacity is
“critical to spreading freedom gas throughout the world.”...
7th Jan
2016
29th Jun
2019
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Greta Thunberg
compare notes on hope
GT: “Before I started school ...
Solarcentury makes brand position increasingly
clear in press releases, media interviews and blogs
7th Jan
2016
May - Jul
...
www.jeremyleggett.net
Including links to this and other powerpoints for free use
Much more here
Thank you
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The global context of Solarcentury's work: presentation by Jeremy Leggett to the company's quarterly review

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A summary in pictures and charts of selected major developments during the last three months in the global issues relevant to a leading solar company's mission, brand, and culture. That mission is to make a meaningful difference in the fight against climate chaos through the widespread adoption of solar power.

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The global context of Solarcentury's work: presentation by Jeremy Leggett to the company's quarterly review

  1. 1. The global context of our work Major developments since the last company review 16th April 2019 – 23rd July 2019
  2. 2. Evidence for the climate imperative for our mission continues to clock up fast Just one example from many….
  3. 3. 7th Jan 2016 16th Jun 2019 The Greenland ice sheet is melting unusually fast this summer Reminder: if the entire sheet melts it would raise global sea levels by more than 7 metres.
  4. 4. Evidence for the speed and potency of the global energy transition is also building fast Notably….
  5. 5. 7th Jan 2016 29th May 2019 83 % of solar PV & 77% of onshore wind due 2020 will produce cheaper electricity than any fossil fuel Source: IRENA
  6. 6. 7th Jan 2016 18th Jun 2019 Solar PV is the fastest growing energy technology, and in an increasing number of countries The annual REN 21 review records 32 countries with a cumulative total of > 1 GW and 11 countries adding > 1 GW in 2018.
  7. 7. 7th Jan 2016 31st May 2019 Up to 70 TW of solar PV feasibly envisioned by 2050 (10 by 2030), providing most global energy So an international team of 45 solar experts argues in a peer-reviewed paper in Science. Up from 0.5 TW today and 1 TW by 2022-2023. 3 scenarios for for growth of PV cumulative capacity assuming global average energy yield of 1,370 kWh/kWp
  8. 8. 7th Jan 2016 13th Jun 2019 “Solar’s role in delivering net zero is being vastly underestimated in the UK” So say LUT university / Energy Watch and Solarcentury: by 2030 6x increase in generation to 80GW, 200,000 jobs, 20% of UK electricity
  9. 9. 7th Jan 2016 27th Jun 2019 100% of Scotland’s electricity came from renewables in Q1 2019, and full year expected 2020 Surplus wind power exported to England and N. Ireland as enough clean energy generated to power 88% of Scottish households for a whole year.
  10. 10. 7th Jan 2016 16th Jun 2019 Germany to back EU-wide target for net zero emissions by 2050, joining 8 others Belgium, Denmark, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain & Sweden committed in May, and UK has the target in law.
  11. 11. 7th Jan 2016 12th Jun 2019 UK government opts for zero net carbon emissions by 2050 as a new target in the Climate Act Making the UK the first G7 nation to have zero in law as a target. Critics focus on the discordance with existing energy policy, e.g. on solar.
  12. 12. 7th Jan 2016 19th Jun 2019 Two thirds of British want faster climate action than zero net emissions by 2050: new poll Increasingly it looks as though Extinction Rebellion and the schoolchildrens’ strikes are achieving a step change in public opinion.
  13. 13. 7th Jan 2016 4th Jun 2019 Worlds biggest companies see a trillion dollars of climate risk, but around double that in benefits $2.1 trillion in benefits estimated from annual disclosures to CDP. $970 billion at risk - more than half of it anticipated within 5 years.
  14. 14. 7th Jan 2016 20th May 2019 Fund managers overseeing $10.2 trillion finds 86% call on OGI to Paris-align business plans UKSIF: But only 18% say they have set deadlines for oil companies to take action, and 57% have not decided on what action to take if the companies do not meet their demands.
  15. 15. New Mercer analysis shows where investor returns are to be found in a 2˚C world 7th Jan 2016 22nd Apr 2019 “Investors need to consider both climate-related mitigation and adaptation in an active way to develop climate resilience in portfolios.” Percentage point changes in annual returns in a 2C scenario by 2030 Source: FT Absolute loss of value by 2041 Cumulative 95% loss of value by 2050 Coal Oil and gas Electric utilities Infrastructure Sustainable equities Renewables 6.3%
  16. 16. 7th Jan 2016 2nd May 2019 Zero emissions possible well before 2050: an argument from the heart of UK Conservatism, and… “To claim that we cannot afford to wean ourselves off fossil fuels by 2050 is to rely on primitive accounting fallacies.”
  17. 17. BUT We are still far short of the necessary tipping point for example….
  18. 18. 7th Jan 2016 6th May 2019 Renewable capacity growth worldwide stalled in 2018 after two decades of strong expansion: IEA “The world cannot afford to press ‘pause’ on the expansion of renewables and governments need to act quickly”: ED Fatih Birol
  19. 19. Worldwide investments in renewable energy hits a six-year low in H1 2019 7th Jan 2016 10th Jul 2019 Source: Bloomberg NEF Essentially flat since H2 2011
  20. 20. 7th Jan 2016 11th Jun 2019 Carbon emissions from the global energy industry rose at the fastest rate in almost a decade in 2018 This after extreme weather and surprise swings in global temperatures stoked extra demand for fossil fuels, the BP Statistical Review observes. Growth in gas use is the main problem Global energy use grew by 2.9% in 2018
  21. 21. 7th Jan 2016 9th May 2019 Fossil-fuel subsidies hit a “staggering” $5.7 trillion in 2017: IMF “Efficient fossil fuel pricing in 2015 would have lowered global carbon emissions by 28% and fossil fuel air pollution deaths by 46%, and increased government revenue by 3.8% of GDP.”
  22. 22. 7th Jan 2016 17th Apr 2019 Carney: urgent reallocation of capital needed by financial sector in order to survive climate change “If some companies and industries fail to adjust to this new world, they will fail to exist.” So say the governors of the BoE and Banque de France.
  23. 23. The incumbency’s rearguard action is robust and resilient ….but its sophistry is increasingly transparent and it will be increasingly difficult to sustain For example….
  24. 24. 7th Jan 2016 20th May 2019 Coal supporters win Australian national election despite strong climate concerns among citizens Opposition Labor party’s plans for deep cuts in carbon emissions are rejected despite 57% “strong concern” re climate in recent poll. Scott Morrison, PM: coal promoter, derider of solar and wind
  25. 25. 7th Jan 2016 1st Jun 2019 Investment soars in exchange traded funds designed to address the world’s ills From $5 bn in 2016 to $26 bn today, with Europe and especially the Nordics leading the way among the nearly 200 funds operating today. “2019 looks as if it will be the year when environmental, social and governance considerations are moving out of a specialised niche into the mainstream.” Gillian Tett, FT
  26. 26. 7th Jan 2016 4th Jun 2019 “We are listening to Greta”: Oil and Gas UK CEO Deirdre Michie “We are clear that climate change is a real and present danger that we must deal with together.” We want “the world to be a better place too.”
  27. 27. 7th Jan 2016 14th Jun 2019 Only 15% of the world’s top 500 companies by market cap are in line with Paris climate goals Estimated increase in global average temperature (˚C)Source: Carbon Delta
  28. 28. A landmark of seismic importance: first mention of oil-and-gas shorting opportunities in the FT 7th Jan 2016 3rd Jul 2019
  29. 29. 7th Jan 2016 21st May 2019 “Just about every shale company that I keep track of suffered negative free cash flows in Q1 2019” This at a breakeven price of $46 a barrel and an average West Texas Oil price of $54.82. 16 shale companies paid nearly $900 m in interest. Free cash flow is cash from operations minus total capital expenditure
  30. 30. US fracker with no positive free cash flow since 2010 sells at stock price almost half price a year ago 7th Jan 2016 15th Jul 2019
  31. 31. FTSE reclassifies “oil and gas producers” as “non-renewable energy” 7th Jan 2016 3rd Jul 2019
  32. 32. Governments and firms in 28 countries sued over climate crisis in 1,300 legal actions since 1990 7th Jan 2016 4th Jul 2019 In the USA, no action by Trump to undo environmental regulations in his 2.5 years has yet survived a legal challenge, in 154 cases. Source: Grantham Institute, LSE
  33. 33. As for the UK
  34. 34. UK must act on emissions if it is not to be embarrassed - legally - before COP26 in 18 months 7th Jan 2016 10th Jul 2019 So concludes the Climate Change Committee. Just 7 of 24 on-the-ground indicators are on track. Almost all progress is in the electricity sector. 4th and 5th budget periods Lord Deben, Chair: “I feel I might be first witness for the prosecution”
  35. 35. 7th Jan 2016 20th Jun 2019 EDF faces new cost overruns and delays of up to three years at Flamanville reactor ASN, the French nuclear watchdog, instructs EDF to repair 8 faulty weldings in the reactor’s containment building, and rejects a request to delay repairs until 2024, after its putative startup. Start: 2007 Original target launch: 2012 Now: at least 2022 Original budget: €3 bn Now: at least €12.9 bn
  36. 36. 7th Jan 2016 28th Apr 2019 UK fracking tsar quits after six months, blaming “highly successful” eco activists Former Labour MP Natascha Engel said that developing the industry would be “an impossible task” despite its “enormous potential”.
  37. 37. So a new report by Prospect finds. Akin to the devastation caused to coalmining communities in the 1980s, the union says. UK renewables jobs plunge by a third 2014-17 and investment in renewables halves 2015-17 7th Jan 2016 30th Apr 2019
  38. 38. 7th Jan 2016 5th Jun 2019 UK home solar panel installations fall by 94% in May after subsidies cut (79 MW March to 5 MW May) The Labour party accuses the government of “actively dismantling” the UK’s solar power industry. Claire Perry Minister of State Department of Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy
  39. 39. 7th Jan 2016 9th May 2019 Stiff VAT rise on solar panels and batteries makes installation “entirely uneconomic”, say experts The UK government’s latest solar sabotage mechanism will apply from 1 October and follow a consultation which lasted < a month, closing last week, which acknowledged negligible gain in tax revenue to HMT.
  40. 40. All this drama is playing out in a world where increasing political polarization has increasing business implications
  41. 41. 7th Jan 2016 25th Apr 2019 Global population is “sadder, angrier and more fearful than ever before”, major poll finds All three emotions rose to record levels in 2018, for the second consecutive year, in Gallup's annual Global State of Emotions report.
  42. 42. It is becoming increasingly difficult for business to be apolitical ….it looks as though brands are going to have pick sides, at least at some basic level For example, which of the following to support?
  43. 43. Press release from department says increasing export capacity is “critical to spreading freedom gas throughout the world.” US energy department rebrands fossil fuels as “molecules of freedom” 7th Jan 2016 29th Apr 2019 Alternative view: Freedom willfully to fuel climate chaos: the IEA estimates that methane leakage and gas flaring are responsible for 7% of all global greenhouse gas emissions
  44. 44. 7th Jan 2016 29th Jun 2019 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Greta Thunberg compare notes on hope GT: “Before I started school striking …I was so depressed.” But once I acted “I was hopeful.” AOC: “Hope is something you have to manifest into the world, and once one person has hope, it can be contagious.”
  45. 45. Solarcentury makes brand position increasingly clear in press releases, media interviews and blogs 7th Jan 2016 May - Jul 2019 CEO Frans van den Heuvel: “There’s a culture ....we have a purpose that’s ingrained in the DNA ...It’s a great asset to have.”
  46. 46. www.jeremyleggett.net Including links to this and other powerpoints for free use Much more here Thank you

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