A global progress report on the four sub-targets of SDG7, the extent to which the international community is behind the pace, and how this can be fixed, with emphasis on investment. A pictures-and-charts presentation to accompany a blog on Business Green.

1. The shortfall in progress on
the provision of affordable
and clean energy for all
by 2030 (SDG7), and
its eminent fixability

2. The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals
are nearly 4 years old, and 10.5 years
remain before the 2030 target

3. 30th Sep
2015
18th Sep
2015
UNGA agrees Sustainable Development Goals
Aim: to eradicate poverty via sustainable development
by 2030
Governments are aware of most of the world’s many ecological and
economic problems, and have pledged to tackle them.

4. Of the 17 SDGs, SDG 7 – affordable and clean energy
for all by 2030 – ought to be one of the easiest to hit
But….

5. 7th Jan
2016
22nd May
2019
The world is far short of the SDG7 target trajectory,
IEA / IRENA / UN / World Bank / WHO report
Annual investment 2018 to 2030 will need to double, reaching $55bn for
energy access, $700 bn for renewables, $600 bn for energy efficiency.

6. Let us consider each sub-target in turn, starting with
2010 2017

7. 7th Jan
2016
29th May
2019
GOGLA members’ sales in H2 2018 bring global
cumulative off-grid solar lighting sales to 42 million
Source: Global Off Grid Lighting Association / Lighting Global

8. GOGLA estimates that these data - sales of 84 GOGLA members - represent c. 30% of all solar
lanterns and multi-light systems sold globally (most of the rest being low-quality generics,
including counterfeits) and 60-80% of off-grid solar home systems with panel >11 Wp.
Global solar lighting sales have essentially stalled
since 2015/16 …despite a steep rise in investment
7th Jan
2016
29th Apr
2019
0
1
2
3
4
5
H2
2010
H1
2011
H2
2011
H1
2012
H2
2012
H1
2013
H2
2013
H1
2014
H2
2014
H1
2015
H2
2015
H1
2016
H2
2016
H1
2017
H2
2017
million
Data source: GOGLA / Lighting Global
Only 42 million solar light sales in all …when 840 million still have no electricity
$207m$75 m$18 m$21 mInvestment:
H1
2018
H2
2018
3.9
$352m$293m$317m
3.7

9. 7th Jan
2016
9th May
2019
Global off-grid solar investment in 2018: $352 m
….by just 43 investors, 77% to just 10 companies
“Among GOGLA members, many companies reported a need for
additional investments, to help the sector grow further.”
Total investment in the off-grid solar sector p.a. $m USD
# of investors making at least 1 transaction in one particular year
Source:
GOGLA

10. 2010 2017

11. 7th Jan
2016
22nd May
2019
Access to clean cooking has been increasing 0.5%
p.a., but 3% p.a. is needed to hit the SDG7 target
The rewards of universal access include preventing some 3.8 million
premature deaths each year, primarily among women and children.

12. 10.2%
excluding traditional biomass
8.6%
excluding traditional biomass
a substantial increase in
the share of renewable
energy in the global
energy mix
2010 2016

13. 7th Jan
2016
29th May
2019
83 % of solar PV & 77% of onshore wind due 2020
to produce cheaper electricity than any fossil fuel
Source: IRENA

14. 7th Jan
2016
29th May
2019
The vital statistics of utility-scale solar PV 2010 to
2018: the steepest learning curve of all RE
Source: IRENA

15. and yet, almost incomprehensibly….

16. 7th Jan
2016
6th May
2019
Renewable capacity growth worldwide stalled in
2018 after two decades of strong expansion: IEA
“The world cannot afford to press ‘pause’ on the expansion of
renewables and governments need to act quickly”: IEA ED Fatih Birol

17. 7th Jan
2016
6th May
2019
New net capacity from renewables increased by
about 180 GW in 2018, the same as 2017
IEA: This is only around 60% of the net additions needed each year to
meet Paris climate goals: that requires 300 GW a year to 2030.

18. Some of the current
team of 210
7th Jan
2016
May
2019
How many Solarcenturys would it take to install 300
GW p.a.? Our annual pipeline is c. 1 GW p.a.…..
The IEA numbers are criticised by many. Taking more realistic numbers,
several hundred GW p.a. more would be needed. Still eminently doable.

19. Source: LUT University / Energy Watch
7th Jan
2016
12th Apr
2019
1.5˚C zero-GHG energy from power, heat, transport
and desalination sectors is possible before 2050
By 2030 32% is solar, and by 2050 72%. In 2017 27% of global electricity
capacity was renewable (2,195 GW).
Average 700 GW
p.a. solar PV

20. 7th Jan
2016
14th May
2019
And yet: “Falling renewables investment stalls Paris
climate goals”
IEA warns that renewables investment was down for the second year running in 2018,
to $304bn, and fossil fuel investment up, to $1.22 trillion. ED Fatih Birol: “the appetite
to push low carbon investments and policies is slowly fading.”

21. 2010 2016
The necessary annual rate of improvement to 2030
exceeds 2.7%. In 2018 it stood at a mere 1.3%.
Target: Doubling

22. And yet: IEA’s Efficient World Scenario finds huge
cost-effective global energy-efficiency potential
7th Jan
2016
19th Oct
2018
Scenario calculates effect if all countries maximised all available
cost-effective efficiency potential between now and 2040.
Transport energy
demand could stay
flat even with a
doubling of activity
We could have 60% more building
space in 2040 for no additional
energy use
Industry could provide nearly twice as
much value per unit of energy in 2040
…. “Not bad for an invisible fuel.”

23. The tantalising ease of getting back on track:
some examples (far from a comprehensive list)
1. Regulators need to tell financial institutions what
they must do, not just advise what they should do
After all, many regulators now profess that climate change
and stranded assets are threats to global financial stability

24. 7th Jan
2016
14th Dec
2016
“With better disclosure, a market in the transition to
a (less than 2 degrees C) world can be built.”
Michael Bloomberg and Mark Carney
Chair and originator of the Taskforce on
Climate-Related Financial Disclosure

25. but….

26. “Relatively few” companies are disclosing climate
risk, esp. in financial filings, as TCFD recommends
7th Jan
2016
26th Sep
2018
513 organisations now support the TCFD recommendations, 457 with
market cap of $7.9 trillion. But few are yet acting on financial risk.

27. They are neither acting on financial risk
nor in many cases, bewilderingly,
on opportunity….

28. New Mercer analysis shows where investor
returns are to be found in a 2˚C world
7th Jan
2016
22nd Apr
2019
“Investors need to consider both climate-related mitigation and
adaptation in an active way to develop climate resilience in portfolios.”
Percentage point changes in annual returns in a 2C scenario by 2030
Source: FT
Absolute loss of value by 2041
Cumulative 95% loss of value
by 2050
Coal
Oil and gas
Electric utilities
Infrastructure
Sustainable equities
Renewables 6.3%

29. 2. Governments and progressive financial institutions
should join forces and make a plan to bring the
trillions of dollars of “dead money” in the capital
markets into play in achieving the SDGs

30. 7th Jan
2016
23rd Jan
2019
“Governments won’t fund sustainable development.
Will private finance step in?”: Gillian Tett in the FT.
The WEF discusses how “trillions of dollars of ‘dead money’ could help the world
address poverty, hunger and climate change.” It sits in pension funds, insurance
groups, endowments and family offices. Meanwhile investors are “clamouring for
impact-investing products.”
The World Bank estimates $4
trillion a year of investment is
needed to hit the UN’s
Sustainable Development Goals.
Governments put $150 billion a
year into Overseas Development
Aid, and multilateral banks bring
that up to c. $1 trillion.
How is the $3 trillion per year
gap going to be closed?

31. People are “saving” their way to a global disaster
that they could help solve
7th Jan
2016
23rd Jan
2019
The world’s savers have already put some $10tn of their money into
low-yielding government bonds, another $7tn into bonds that currently
yield negative real returns, and about $9tn into cash.

32. 3. The rich need to invest much more in a viable future
and / or be more generous in philanthropy, if they
want their children to have a livable future
…and if they can’t do this, they need to be forced to by
governments introducing wealth taxes.
Tiny taxes would do fine.

33. The number of Ultra High Net Worth individuals
(those with >$30m assets) increased 12.9% in 2017
7th Jan
2016
5th Sep
2018
They now number a record 255,810. This 0.25 million are
0.003% of the world’s 7.6 billion population.

34. The 0.003% have collective wealth of $31.5 trillion
…11.2% of the world’s total $280 trillion wealth
7th Jan
2016
5th Sep
2018
$31 trillion is almost double the USA’s GDP. The inequality skew is at an
all time high: 1% of the global population owns 82% of all wealth.

35. Just 42 people hold the same wealth
as the 3.7bn poorest
7th Jan
2016
22nd Jan
2018
Oxfam survey of 70,000 in 10 countries shows nearly two-thirds of
people – 72% in the UK – want urgent action to close rich / poor gap.

36. America’s richest 3 have as much wealth as
the poorer half of the US population …160 m people
7th Jan
2016
8th Nov
2017
Multinational companies shift
ever more profits offshore:
€600bn in the last year
A combined $248.5 billion ….and Trump’s tax cuts for the rich
aim to channel 80% of benefits to 1%

37. 7th Jan
2016
9th May
2019
In the provision of debt for off-grid solar
companies, depressing evidence post-Paris...
The foundation world seems to have given up on SDG7, and the
commercial world – despite all the rhetoric – barely features.
Debt Transactions per Funding Source p.a. $m USD
Source:
GOGLA
Unknown
Crowd
funding
Impact
DFI &
other
gov’t
Foundation
Commercial

38. UBS finds that only 39% of world’s High Net Worth
Individuals have >1% of assets invested ethically
7th Jan
2016
19th Sep
2018
Americans are worst at 12%. British second worst at 20%. Chinese are at
60%. HNWIs defined as those with $1m (£760,000) in investable assets.

39. Which is both a shame
and a lost opportunity
because…..

40. In “the ethical investment boom ….outperformance
of ESG strategies is beyond doubt”
7th Jan
2016
3rd Sep
2017

41. The market opportunity in hitting the UN’s
Sustainable Development Goals is huge
7th Jan
2016
17th Jan
2017

42. 5. Tech companies should pay just a little back
to a global society they have taken so much
from in recent years
…and governments should force them to
if they won’t do it voluntarily.

43. Tech companies own a trillion-dollar offshore “cash
pile” that is actually a giant bond portfolio
7th Jan
2016
11th Feb
2018
10 companies hold 80% of this. They are “the new investment banks”,
using their own low-interest debt to buy high yield corporate debt.
Rana Foroohar in the
Financial Times

44. 6. Governments need to end subsidies for fossil fuels
….something which many of them have already agreed to do

45. 7th Jan
2016
9th May
2019
Fossil-fuel subsidies hit a “staggering”
$5.7 trillion in 2017: IMF
“Efficient fossil fuel pricing in 2015 would have lowered global carbon
emissions by 28% and fossil fuel air pollution deaths by 46%, and
increased government revenue by 3.8% of GDP.”

46. To donate a $5
solar light to all c.
170m households
globally without
electricity:
< $1 billion
Annual subsidies
globally for
kerosene for
lighting:
c. $7 billion

47. 6. Every institution and individual should pay
a small price for their carbon emissions
for funding of the SDGs
Some already do, but a mass movement of volunteers doing so
(in the absence of governments’ continuing collective inability /
unwillingness to agree a global regime of carbon taxes)
would make a huge difference

49. 7. Oil companies and/or governments should
name an end year for kerosene sales
In the same way some governments have for coal and petrol
cars. This end year should be 2030, consistent with SDG and
Paris targets. All they then have to do is sell a lot of solar
lights from their forecourts.

50. Option 1 for the poorest:
burn oil (kerosene)
….at c.$50 a year
Annual global spend on kerosene and other unsustainables:
$27 billion

51. Option 2:
Solar light
…at $5 (as of 2018)
for 3-5 years
Savings per
household:
Average annual
income, Malawi:
$225
$145 at least

52. 7th Jan
2016
3rd Aug
2017
Indian government introduces kerosene
subsidy phaseout via stepped price rise
Consumption has fallen 21% in 2016-17 due to
increase in gas cooking and rapid electrification
Delhi and Chandigarh are already kerosene-free cities

53. 7th Jan
2016
3rd Jul
2017
Total sells its 2 millionth solar light, overtaking
SolarAid’s SunnyMoney as leading African seller
90% in Africa, via 4,000 filling stations
Goal: 5 million by 2020 …not enough

54. 8. Corporations should match what they do in
the developing world with what they are
increasingly doing in the developed world
e.g. Commit to 100% renewable power in all their
operations / supply chain, and unlock in their retail
operations the savings that solar lighting
could make for their customers

55. In Unilever’s case, introducing affordable solar
lights into their legendary global distribution
chain would create a new profit centre for
them in the emerging markets vital to their
growth story ….plus create a “free money tree”
for their customers measured in $ hundreds of
millions from saved kerosene costs.
7th Jan
2016
2017
87% of business leaders believe companies best
perform over time if purpose goes beyond profit

56. 9. Governments should (finally) crack down on money
laundering and tax evasion, and use some o the
proceeds to fund the SDGs
Some examples of the scale….

57. New book dives into themes the FT’s Martin Wolf
and others have increasingly been writing about
7th Jan
2016
6th Sep
2018
“Until this situation changes, the lawyers, bankers and drafters of
deliberately loose financial laws will continue to prosper.”
“Money flows across frontiers, but
laws do not.”
“The very wealthiest people … have
tunnelled into this new land that lies
beneath all our nation states, where
borders have vanished. They move
their money … and themselves
wherever they wish, picking and
choosing which countries’ laws they
wish to live by.”

58. Danske Bank scandal was only possible because UK
allows Kremlin to move dark money with impunity
7th Jan
2016
20th Sep
2018
If cash flowing west in other Baltic state banks were in proportion to the
$200bn uncovered in Danske’s Estonian branch 2008-15, up to €4 trillion
could have transited. British LLPs are the vehicle of choice.

59. The corrupt hide billions in shell companies. US &
UK Beneficial Ownership Registries could stop them
7th Jan
2016
3rd Apr
2018
So suggest Panama Paper journalists Frederik Obermaier and Bastian
Obermayer. The registries would show “ultimate beneficial owners.”

60. 10. Governments should divert a tiny fraction of global
military expenditure to funding the SDGs
After all, there will ultimately be no genuine security
unless we eradicate poverty on a global basis

61. 7th Jan
2016
28th Apr
2019
“The world is arming itself to the teeth”
Worldwide military expenditure 2018 as % of total $1.8 trillion
…76% > 1998. Funding needed for SDG 7 (IEA): $52 billion p.a. ….3.2%.
$649 bn

62. www.jeremyleggett.net
Including links to this and other powerpoints for free use
Much more here
Thank you