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The shortfall in progress on
the provision of affordable
and clean energy for all
by 2030 (SDG7), and
its eminent fixabili...
The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals
are nearly 4 years old, and 10.5 years
remain before the 2030 target
30th Sep
2015
18th Sep
2015
UNGA agrees Sustainable Development Goals
Aim: to eradicate poverty via sustainable developmen...
Of the 17 SDGs, SDG 7 – affordable and clean energy
for all by 2030 – ought to be one of the easiest to hit
But….
7th Jan
2016
22nd May
2019
The world is far short of the SDG7 target trajectory,
IEA / IRENA / UN / World Bank / WHO repor...
Let us consider each sub-target in turn, starting with
2010 2017
7th Jan
2016
29th May
2019
GOGLA members’ sales in H2 2018 bring global
cumulative off-grid solar lighting sales to 42 mil...
GOGLA estimates that these data - sales of 84 GOGLA members - represent c. 30% of all solar
lanterns and multi-light syste...
7th Jan
2016
9th May
2019
Global off-grid solar investment in 2018: $352 m
….by just 43 investors, 77% to just 10 companie...
2010 2017
7th Jan
2016
22nd May
2019
Access to clean cooking has been increasing 0.5%
p.a., but 3% p.a. is needed to hit the SDG7 ta...
10.2%
excluding traditional biomass
8.6%
excluding traditional biomass
a substantial increase in
the share of renewable
en...
7th Jan
2016
29th May
2019
83 % of solar PV & 77% of onshore wind due 2020
to produce cheaper electricity than any fossil ...
7th Jan
2016
29th May
2019
The vital statistics of utility-scale solar PV 2010 to
2018: the steepest learning curve of all...
and yet, almost incomprehensibly….
7th Jan
2016
6th May
2019
Renewable capacity growth worldwide stalled in
2018 after two decades of strong expansion: IEA
“...
7th Jan
2016
6th May
2019
New net capacity from renewables increased by
about 180 GW in 2018, the same as 2017
IEA: This i...
Some of the current
team of 210
7th Jan
2016
May
2019
How many Solarcenturys would it take to install 300
GW p.a.? Our ann...
Source: LUT University / Energy Watch
7th Jan
2016
12th Apr
2019
1.5˚C zero-GHG energy from power, heat, transport
and des...
7th Jan
2016
14th May
2019
And yet: “Falling renewables investment stalls Paris
climate goals”
IEA warns that renewables i...
2010 2016
The necessary annual rate of improvement to 2030
exceeds 2.7%. In 2018 it stood at a mere 1.3%.
Target: Doubling
And yet: IEA’s Efficient World Scenario finds huge
cost-effective global energy-efficiency potential
7th Jan
2016
19th Oct...
The tantalising ease of getting back on track:
some examples (far from a comprehensive list)
1. Regulators need to tell fi...
7th Jan
2016
14th Dec
2016
“With better disclosure, a market in the transition to
a (less than 2 degrees C) world can be b...
but….
“Relatively few” companies are disclosing climate
risk, esp. in financial filings, as TCFD recommends
7th Jan
2016
26th Se...
They are neither acting on financial risk
nor in many cases, bewilderingly,
on opportunity….
New Mercer analysis shows where investor
returns are to be found in a 2˚C world
7th Jan
2016
22nd Apr
2019
“Investors need...
2. Governments and progressive financial institutions
should join forces and make a plan to bring the
trillions of dollars...
7th Jan
2016
23rd Jan
2019
“Governments won’t fund sustainable development.
Will private finance step in?”: Gillian Tett i...
People are “saving” their way to a global disaster
that they could help solve
7th Jan
2016
23rd Jan
2019
The world’s saver...
3. The rich need to invest much more in a viable future
and / or be more generous in philanthropy, if they
want their chil...
The number of Ultra High Net Worth individuals
(those with >$30m assets) increased 12.9% in 2017
7th Jan
2016
5th Sep
2018...
The 0.003% have collective wealth of $31.5 trillion
…11.2% of the world’s total $280 trillion wealth
7th Jan
2016
5th Sep
...
Just 42 people hold the same wealth
as the 3.7bn poorest
7th Jan
2016
22nd Jan
2018
Oxfam survey of 70,000 in 10 countries...
America’s richest 3 have as much wealth as
the poorer half of the US population …160 m people
7th Jan
2016
8th Nov
2017
Mu...
7th Jan
2016
9th May
2019
In the provision of debt for off-grid solar
companies, depressing evidence post-Paris...
The fou...
UBS finds that only 39% of world’s High Net Worth
Individuals have >1% of assets invested ethically
7th Jan
2016
19th Sep
...
Which is both a shame
and a lost opportunity
because…..
In “the ethical investment boom ….outperformance
of ESG strategies is beyond doubt”
7th Jan
2016
3rd Sep
2017
The market opportunity in hitting the UN’s
Sustainable Development Goals is huge
7th Jan
2016
17th Jan
2017
5. Tech companies should pay just a little back
to a global society they have taken so much
from in recent years
…and gove...
Tech companies own a trillion-dollar offshore “cash
pile” that is actually a giant bond portfolio
7th Jan
2016
11th Feb
20...
6. Governments need to end subsidies for fossil fuels
….something which many of them have already agreed to do
7th Jan
2016
9th May
2019
Fossil-fuel subsidies hit a “staggering”
$5.7 trillion in 2017: IMF
“Efficient fossil fuel prici...
To donate a $5
solar light to all c.
170m households
globally without
electricity:
< $1 billion
Annual subsidies
globally ...
6. Every institution and individual should pay
a small price for their carbon emissions
for funding of the SDGs
Some alrea...
7. Oil companies and/or governments should
name an end year for kerosene sales
In the same way some governments have for c...
Option 1 for the poorest:
burn oil (kerosene)
….at c.$50 a year
Annual global spend on kerosene and other unsustainables:
...
Option 2:
Solar light
…at $5 (as of 2018)
for 3-5 years
Savings per
household:
Average annual
income, Malawi:
$225
$145 at...
7th Jan
2016
3rd Aug
2017
Indian government introduces kerosene
subsidy phaseout via stepped price rise
Consumption has fa...
7th Jan
2016
3rd Jul
2017
Total sells its 2 millionth solar light, overtaking
SolarAid’s SunnyMoney as leading African sel...
8. Corporations should match what they do in
the developing world with what they are
increasingly doing in the developed w...
In Unilever’s case, introducing affordable solar
lights into their legendary global distribution
chain would create a new ...
9. Governments should (finally) crack down on money
laundering and tax evasion, and use some o the
proceeds to fund the SD...
New book dives into themes the FT’s Martin Wolf
and others have increasingly been writing about
7th Jan
2016
6th Sep
2018
...
Danske Bank scandal was only possible because UK
allows Kremlin to move dark money with impunity
7th Jan
2016
20th Sep
201...
The corrupt hide billions in shell companies. US &
UK Beneficial Ownership Registries could stop them
7th Jan
2016
3rd Apr...
10. Governments should divert a tiny fraction of global
military expenditure to funding the SDGs
After all, there will ult...
7th Jan
2016
28th Apr
2019
“The world is arming itself to the teeth”
Worldwide military expenditure 2018 as % of total $1....
www.jeremyleggett.net
Including links to this and other powerpoints for free use
Much more here
Thank you
The shortfall in progress on the provision of affordable and clean energy for all by 2030 (SDG7), and its eminent fixability
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The shortfall in progress on the provision of affordable and clean energy for all by 2030 (SDG7), and its eminent fixability

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A global progress report on the four sub-targets of SDG7, the extent to which the international community is behind the pace, and how this can be fixed, with emphasis on investment. A pictures-and-charts presentation to accompany a blog on Business Green.

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The shortfall in progress on the provision of affordable and clean energy for all by 2030 (SDG7), and its eminent fixability

  1. 1. The shortfall in progress on the provision of affordable and clean energy for all by 2030 (SDG7), and its eminent fixability
  2. 2. The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals are nearly 4 years old, and 10.5 years remain before the 2030 target
  3. 3. 30th Sep 2015 18th Sep 2015 UNGA agrees Sustainable Development Goals Aim: to eradicate poverty via sustainable development by 2030 Governments are aware of most of the world’s many ecological and economic problems, and have pledged to tackle them.
  4. 4. Of the 17 SDGs, SDG 7 – affordable and clean energy for all by 2030 – ought to be one of the easiest to hit But….
  5. 5. 7th Jan 2016 22nd May 2019 The world is far short of the SDG7 target trajectory, IEA / IRENA / UN / World Bank / WHO report Annual investment 2018 to 2030 will need to double, reaching $55bn for energy access, $700 bn for renewables, $600 bn for energy efficiency.
  6. 6. Let us consider each sub-target in turn, starting with 2010 2017
  7. 7. 7th Jan 2016 29th May 2019 GOGLA members’ sales in H2 2018 bring global cumulative off-grid solar lighting sales to 42 million Source: Global Off Grid Lighting Association / Lighting Global
  8. 8. GOGLA estimates that these data - sales of 84 GOGLA members - represent c. 30% of all solar lanterns and multi-light systems sold globally (most of the rest being low-quality generics, including counterfeits) and 60-80% of off-grid solar home systems with panel >11 Wp. Global solar lighting sales have essentially stalled since 2015/16 …despite a steep rise in investment 7th Jan 2016 29th Apr 2019 0 1 2 3 4 5 H2 2010 H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 million Data source: GOGLA / Lighting Global Only 42 million solar light sales in all …when 840 million still have no electricity $207m$75 m$18 m$21 mInvestment: H1 2018 H2 2018 3.9 $352m$293m$317m 3.7
  9. 9. 7th Jan 2016 9th May 2019 Global off-grid solar investment in 2018: $352 m ….by just 43 investors, 77% to just 10 companies “Among GOGLA members, many companies reported a need for additional investments, to help the sector grow further.” Total investment in the off-grid solar sector p.a. $m USD # of investors making at least 1 transaction in one particular year Source: GOGLA
  10. 10. 2010 2017
  11. 11. 7th Jan 2016 22nd May 2019 Access to clean cooking has been increasing 0.5% p.a., but 3% p.a. is needed to hit the SDG7 target The rewards of universal access include preventing some 3.8 million premature deaths each year, primarily among women and children.
  12. 12. 10.2% excluding traditional biomass 8.6% excluding traditional biomass a substantial increase in the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix 2010 2016
  13. 13. 7th Jan 2016 29th May 2019 83 % of solar PV & 77% of onshore wind due 2020 to produce cheaper electricity than any fossil fuel Source: IRENA
  14. 14. 7th Jan 2016 29th May 2019 The vital statistics of utility-scale solar PV 2010 to 2018: the steepest learning curve of all RE Source: IRENA
  15. 15. and yet, almost incomprehensibly….
  16. 16. 7th Jan 2016 6th May 2019 Renewable capacity growth worldwide stalled in 2018 after two decades of strong expansion: IEA “The world cannot afford to press ‘pause’ on the expansion of renewables and governments need to act quickly”: IEA ED Fatih Birol
  17. 17. 7th Jan 2016 6th May 2019 New net capacity from renewables increased by about 180 GW in 2018, the same as 2017 IEA: This is only around 60% of the net additions needed each year to meet Paris climate goals: that requires 300 GW a year to 2030.
  18. 18. Some of the current team of 210 7th Jan 2016 May 2019 How many Solarcenturys would it take to install 300 GW p.a.? Our annual pipeline is c. 1 GW p.a.….. The IEA numbers are criticised by many. Taking more realistic numbers, several hundred GW p.a. more would be needed. Still eminently doable.
  19. 19. Source: LUT University / Energy Watch 7th Jan 2016 12th Apr 2019 1.5˚C zero-GHG energy from power, heat, transport and desalination sectors is possible before 2050 By 2030 32% is solar, and by 2050 72%. In 2017 27% of global electricity capacity was renewable (2,195 GW). Average 700 GW p.a. solar PV
  20. 20. 7th Jan 2016 14th May 2019 And yet: “Falling renewables investment stalls Paris climate goals” IEA warns that renewables investment was down for the second year running in 2018, to $304bn, and fossil fuel investment up, to $1.22 trillion. ED Fatih Birol: “the appetite to push low carbon investments and policies is slowly fading.”
  21. 21. 2010 2016 The necessary annual rate of improvement to 2030 exceeds 2.7%. In 2018 it stood at a mere 1.3%. Target: Doubling
  22. 22. And yet: IEA’s Efficient World Scenario finds huge cost-effective global energy-efficiency potential 7th Jan 2016 19th Oct 2018 Scenario calculates effect if all countries maximised all available cost-effective efficiency potential between now and 2040. Transport energy demand could stay flat even with a doubling of activity We could have 60% more building space in 2040 for no additional energy use Industry could provide nearly twice as much value per unit of energy in 2040 …. “Not bad for an invisible fuel.”
  23. 23. The tantalising ease of getting back on track: some examples (far from a comprehensive list) 1. Regulators need to tell financial institutions what they must do, not just advise what they should do After all, many regulators now profess that climate change and stranded assets are threats to global financial stability
  24. 24. 7th Jan 2016 14th Dec 2016 “With better disclosure, a market in the transition to a (less than 2 degrees C) world can be built.” Michael Bloomberg and Mark Carney Chair and originator of the Taskforce on Climate-Related Financial Disclosure
  25. 25. but….
  26. 26. “Relatively few” companies are disclosing climate risk, esp. in financial filings, as TCFD recommends 7th Jan 2016 26th Sep 2018 513 organisations now support the TCFD recommendations, 457 with market cap of $7.9 trillion. But few are yet acting on financial risk.
  27. 27. They are neither acting on financial risk nor in many cases, bewilderingly, on opportunity….
  28. 28. New Mercer analysis shows where investor returns are to be found in a 2˚C world 7th Jan 2016 22nd Apr 2019 “Investors need to consider both climate-related mitigation and adaptation in an active way to develop climate resilience in portfolios.” Percentage point changes in annual returns in a 2C scenario by 2030 Source: FT Absolute loss of value by 2041 Cumulative 95% loss of value by 2050 Coal Oil and gas Electric utilities Infrastructure Sustainable equities Renewables 6.3%
  29. 29. 2. Governments and progressive financial institutions should join forces and make a plan to bring the trillions of dollars of “dead money” in the capital markets into play in achieving the SDGs
  30. 30. 7th Jan 2016 23rd Jan 2019 “Governments won’t fund sustainable development. Will private finance step in?”: Gillian Tett in the FT. The WEF discusses how “trillions of dollars of ‘dead money’ could help the world address poverty, hunger and climate change.” It sits in pension funds, insurance groups, endowments and family offices. Meanwhile investors are “clamouring for impact-investing products.” The World Bank estimates $4 trillion a year of investment is needed to hit the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. Governments put $150 billion a year into Overseas Development Aid, and multilateral banks bring that up to c. $1 trillion. How is the $3 trillion per year gap going to be closed?
  31. 31. People are “saving” their way to a global disaster that they could help solve 7th Jan 2016 23rd Jan 2019 The world’s savers have already put some $10tn of their money into low-yielding government bonds, another $7tn into bonds that currently yield negative real returns, and about $9tn into cash.
  32. 32. 3. The rich need to invest much more in a viable future and / or be more generous in philanthropy, if they want their children to have a livable future …and if they can’t do this, they need to be forced to by governments introducing wealth taxes. Tiny taxes would do fine.
  33. 33. The number of Ultra High Net Worth individuals (those with >$30m assets) increased 12.9% in 2017 7th Jan 2016 5th Sep 2018 They now number a record 255,810. This 0.25 million are 0.003% of the world’s 7.6 billion population.
  34. 34. The 0.003% have collective wealth of $31.5 trillion …11.2% of the world’s total $280 trillion wealth 7th Jan 2016 5th Sep 2018 $31 trillion is almost double the USA’s GDP. The inequality skew is at an all time high: 1% of the global population owns 82% of all wealth.
  35. 35. Just 42 people hold the same wealth as the 3.7bn poorest 7th Jan 2016 22nd Jan 2018 Oxfam survey of 70,000 in 10 countries shows nearly two-thirds of people – 72% in the UK – want urgent action to close rich / poor gap.
  36. 36. America’s richest 3 have as much wealth as the poorer half of the US population …160 m people 7th Jan 2016 8th Nov 2017 Multinational companies shift ever more profits offshore: €600bn in the last year A combined $248.5 billion ….and Trump’s tax cuts for the rich aim to channel 80% of benefits to 1%
  37. 37. 7th Jan 2016 9th May 2019 In the provision of debt for off-grid solar companies, depressing evidence post-Paris... The foundation world seems to have given up on SDG7, and the commercial world – despite all the rhetoric – barely features. Debt Transactions per Funding Source p.a. $m USD Source: GOGLA Unknown Crowd funding Impact DFI & other gov’t Foundation Commercial
  38. 38. UBS finds that only 39% of world’s High Net Worth Individuals have >1% of assets invested ethically 7th Jan 2016 19th Sep 2018 Americans are worst at 12%. British second worst at 20%. Chinese are at 60%. HNWIs defined as those with $1m (£760,000) in investable assets.
  39. 39. Which is both a shame and a lost opportunity because…..
  40. 40. In “the ethical investment boom ….outperformance of ESG strategies is beyond doubt” 7th Jan 2016 3rd Sep 2017
  41. 41. The market opportunity in hitting the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals is huge 7th Jan 2016 17th Jan 2017
  42. 42. 5. Tech companies should pay just a little back to a global society they have taken so much from in recent years …and governments should force them to if they won’t do it voluntarily.
  43. 43. Tech companies own a trillion-dollar offshore “cash pile” that is actually a giant bond portfolio 7th Jan 2016 11th Feb 2018 10 companies hold 80% of this. They are “the new investment banks”, using their own low-interest debt to buy high yield corporate debt. Rana Foroohar in the Financial Times
  44. 44. 6. Governments need to end subsidies for fossil fuels ….something which many of them have already agreed to do
  45. 45. 7th Jan 2016 9th May 2019 Fossil-fuel subsidies hit a “staggering” $5.7 trillion in 2017: IMF “Efficient fossil fuel pricing in 2015 would have lowered global carbon emissions by 28% and fossil fuel air pollution deaths by 46%, and increased government revenue by 3.8% of GDP.”
  46. 46. To donate a $5 solar light to all c. 170m households globally without electricity: < $1 billion Annual subsidies globally for kerosene for lighting: c. $7 billion
  47. 47. 6. Every institution and individual should pay a small price for their carbon emissions for funding of the SDGs Some already do, but a mass movement of volunteers doing so (in the absence of governments’ continuing collective inability / unwillingness to agree a global regime of carbon taxes) would make a huge difference
  48. 48. 7. Oil companies and/or governments should name an end year for kerosene sales In the same way some governments have for coal and petrol cars. This end year should be 2030, consistent with SDG and Paris targets. All they then have to do is sell a lot of solar lights from their forecourts.
  49. 49. Option 1 for the poorest: burn oil (kerosene) ….at c.$50 a year Annual global spend on kerosene and other unsustainables: $27 billion
  50. 50. Option 2: Solar light …at $5 (as of 2018) for 3-5 years Savings per household: Average annual income, Malawi: $225 $145 at least
  51. 51. 7th Jan 2016 3rd Aug 2017 Indian government introduces kerosene subsidy phaseout via stepped price rise Consumption has fallen 21% in 2016-17 due to increase in gas cooking and rapid electrification Delhi and Chandigarh are already kerosene-free cities
  52. 52. 7th Jan 2016 3rd Jul 2017 Total sells its 2 millionth solar light, overtaking SolarAid’s SunnyMoney as leading African seller 90% in Africa, via 4,000 filling stations Goal: 5 million by 2020 …not enough
  53. 53. 8. Corporations should match what they do in the developing world with what they are increasingly doing in the developed world e.g. Commit to 100% renewable power in all their operations / supply chain, and unlock in their retail operations the savings that solar lighting could make for their customers
  54. 54. In Unilever’s case, introducing affordable solar lights into their legendary global distribution chain would create a new profit centre for them in the emerging markets vital to their growth story ….plus create a “free money tree” for their customers measured in $ hundreds of millions from saved kerosene costs. 7th Jan 2016 2017 87% of business leaders believe companies best perform over time if purpose goes beyond profit
  55. 55. 9. Governments should (finally) crack down on money laundering and tax evasion, and use some o the proceeds to fund the SDGs Some examples of the scale….
  56. 56. New book dives into themes the FT’s Martin Wolf and others have increasingly been writing about 7th Jan 2016 6th Sep 2018 “Until this situation changes, the lawyers, bankers and drafters of deliberately loose financial laws will continue to prosper.” “Money flows across frontiers, but laws do not.” “The very wealthiest people … have tunnelled into this new land that lies beneath all our nation states, where borders have vanished. They move their money … and themselves wherever they wish, picking and choosing which countries’ laws they wish to live by.”
  57. 57. Danske Bank scandal was only possible because UK allows Kremlin to move dark money with impunity 7th Jan 2016 20th Sep 2018 If cash flowing west in other Baltic state banks were in proportion to the $200bn uncovered in Danske’s Estonian branch 2008-15, up to €4 trillion could have transited. British LLPs are the vehicle of choice.
  58. 58. The corrupt hide billions in shell companies. US & UK Beneficial Ownership Registries could stop them 7th Jan 2016 3rd Apr 2018 So suggest Panama Paper journalists Frederik Obermaier and Bastian Obermayer. The registries would show “ultimate beneficial owners.”
  59. 59. 10. Governments should divert a tiny fraction of global military expenditure to funding the SDGs After all, there will ultimately be no genuine security unless we eradicate poverty on a global basis
  60. 60. 7th Jan 2016 28th Apr 2019 “The world is arming itself to the teeth” Worldwide military expenditure 2018 as % of total $1.8 trillion …76% > 1998. Funding needed for SDG 7 (IEA): $52 billion p.a. ….3.2%. $649 bn
  61. 61. www.jeremyleggett.net Including links to this and other powerpoints for free use Much more here Thank you

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