Practical techniques for predicting the future (msft)

1. Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future Jesse Schell @jesseschell

4. $ $ $ $ $ $

7. + = Psychology Technology Destiny

8. CrystalBallSociety.com

9. 5 patterns

10. Pattern1 Foundational Technology Makes the Biggest Changes

11. FOUNDATION Decoration

12. Mickey Mouse’s First Cartoon?

13. Steamboat Willie (November, 1928)

14. Plane Crazy (May, 1928)

16. Pattern2 The Hype Curve

17. The Hype Curve

19. Pattern3 Disruption

22. Pattern4 Technology Mostly Diverges

29. Technologies are shaped by their VENUES

30. Public Venues Arena Theater Museum

31. Private Venues Hearth Workbench Reading Nook

32. Public / Private Venues Gaming Table Playground Anywhere

33. Anywhere Gaming Table Playground Hearth Workbench Reading Nook Theater Arena Museum Private Venues Public Venues

34. Pattern5 History Keeps Repeating

36. 1849!

38. 2011 Palmer Luckey (age 20) 1968 Ivan Sutherland 1884 Nipkow Disk 1927 Philo Farnsworth (age 20) TV VR 43 Years Later 43 Years Later

40. Foundational Technology Makes the Biggest Changes The Hype Curve Disruption Technology Mostly Diverges History Keeps Repeating 5 4 3 1 2 Send your predictions to me! Jesse@SchellGames.com Thanks! Find slides at: JesseSchell.com

Practical techniques for predicting the future (msft)

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Practical techniques for predicting the future (msft)