The Long Game: It’s Not Prime Time for VR… Yet | Clive Downie
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Delivered at Casual Connect USA 2016. While VR has been around for decades, buzz has hit a fever pitch and is poised to make a huge impact on the games industry. But in reality, we’re in a year of experimentation. The next five years will be telling ones as we grapple with questions from development to distribution: Is the right infrastructure in place? How can VR creators master a new language and mode of storytelling? What experiences will be winners? And, beyond this initial boom, what lies ahead?
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The Long Game: It’s Not Prime Time for VR… Yet | Clive Downie
- 1. The Long Game: It’s Not Prime Time for VR/AR…..Yet. Clive Downie Chief Marketing Officer - Unity
- 3. 2016 202020182017 2019 Adoption/Value Time “gap of disappointment”
- 4. Once in a Generation Moment
- 5. Electricity Combustion Engine TV PC WWW Smartphone VR AR MR
- 9. We are already seeing very real signs of life
- 10. Getting started:
- 11. Learn 3D modeling Coding is essential The master rule Get OK with making mistakes Choose a game engine
- 12. 1.6 billion monthly game installs 6.5 million registered developers 1.7 billion devices tracked Notes: * SourceDNA, Q3 Data All other data from Internal Unity sources, as of December 2015 Unity Today
- 15. Match content to context Optimize & test Tell a story Give people an exit
- 17. If you haven’t read this book - then read this book
- 18. The Metaverse is Real
Notes de l'éditeur
- Hello. OK….. There has been a group of people doing this stuff FOREVER. People knew that this was going to change the world - at some point………and it’s just starting to. But let’s go back and see how smart those people were to dream then and take risks. So……
- Looking at videos of VR work from the 1970s onward is pretty humbling. That’s a guy in the 1970s {click} That’s a headset from the 1990s That’s a woman wearing a headset with a controller that looks like a wiimote in the 1990s, again This is a slide from the nineties talking about how VR is based on three decades of research, so…that would be the 1960s, which is fifty years ago This is a kid in the nineties And this is a woman in the eighties driving… This underwater submarine. Very humbling. And - shows that while we think we’re at the beginning of a curve - actually we’re in the latter stages of one of the longest technology arcs. Which brings us to today. There’s a lot of buzz and heat. But we haven’t reach that magical moment when VR will change the world.
- It’s coming - but it isn’t now. Chart shows time/adoption value. According to analysts Augmented/Virtual Reality revenue is forecasted to hit $120B by 2020 (90 AR / 30 VR) In comparison 2016 global games software revenues total $90B. Linear growth? No…… Prediction: I think VR and AR is going will start slower than some predict for a number of other reasons….most notably cost and content Some may even say (despite a $17Bn rise in market cap for Nintendo off of striking AR just right with) that AR and VR are fizzling …. just not living up to all the hype. The gap of disappointment will be real… but in the end, fairly meaningless. Because - just like all the those people 30, 40 years ago testing the limits of VR then, We should recognize what we still have. A once in a generation introduction of new tech so compelling it changes everything.
- I want to examine that once in a generation statement a bit more. If you’re in this room you might be a believer, or you might be continuing to seek reassurance that your investments are right, or your potential investment is sane. Well, like every major step change in technology the early pioneers who gritted it out faced high risk but supremely high reward. And this is a step change in technology. I put it up with {click to next}
- These others and the impact they had. {talk through} Electricity - I can see!! in the dark The combustion engine - travel, time Television - turned written into visual, summoned the golden age of advertising PC - optimized work flows The Internet - information Smartphones - time per day, opened up VR/AR/MR Each of these had supremely powerful outcomes on humanity…..and similarly - so will VR and AR.
- At some point between now and ten years from now, a billion people a day will experience VR or AR The reason why adoption and use will explode to those levels is fundamentally straight forward. There will come a time when using VR/AR will tangibly makes your life better. Richer. It will make your time more valuable. Why is it going to do that? Why am I not centering around, it’s just a cool games platform? Well - The simple yet oh so very powerful hint is in the name virtual/augmented REALITY. {CLICK TAKES YOU INTO SLIDESHOW…}
- We're on the edge, in this once in a generation moment, of being able to transport humans to other very real places instantly. Just imagine what you can do if you can make other realities have presence and meaning. Imagine how that unlocks education, or design, or socializing, or communication, or healthcare or travel or entertainment - or or or every pursuit on the planet and off this planet where you spend time. They will all be accessible anytime, by anyone. How close are we, to mass adoption?
- I think we’re closer than ever. {click} Mobile is leading the way. No disrespect to the excellent Rift and Vive - they can and will have deep communities of customers but it’s mobile that will speed these new realities to the world. <click> It began with Google Cardboard Through January 2016, over 5 million Cardboard viewers had shipped and over 1,000 compatible applications had been published https://techcrunch.com/2016/01/27/5-million-google-cardboard-vr-viewers-have-shipped/ GearVR, Oculus said 1Million users in April of this year http://uploadvr.com/gear-vr-saw-one-million-users-last-month/ More recently RelayCars passed 500,000 downloads http://uploadvr.com/relaycars-races-past-500000-gear-vr-downloads-much-planned/ (they have a free app in which users can explore realistic models of cars in minute detail, watch videos of them in action, head to virtual showrooms and even take virtual test drives) <click> Google announced Daydream, which is going to bring a controller, lighter weight and be portable, accessible, and approachable. <click> Facebook 360 was introduced in June, and while you don’t need to use headset, there are two important things that are happening. 1st, it gets users used to moving around in 3 dimensions while looking at their phone, and 2nd, it CAN be used with both GearVR and Rift. Gets the masses comfortables with VR step by step.http://newsroom.fb.com/news/2016/06/introducing-360-photos-on-facebook/ <click> Finally AR recently hit the mainstream with the Made with Unity title Pokemon GO, We are amidst one of the Meme moments of 2016, and very likely one of the most widely used apps on mobile to date, possibly surpassing some social networks with its use.
- Massive adoption on a global scale. More to come despite us being in the gap of disappointment. Could easily get to 10% of my 1 billion plugged into some form of virtual or augmented reality. And that’s early on in the cycle! And that’s right - for you keen watchers out there that’s Bellsprout, about to be captured, as he appears in this very presentation as I was making it. The fact I gave a crap about doing that speaks volumes - but
- So, if you want to be part of this generational moment. To stake your claim in VR/AR - what do you need to start thinking about? Here’s some quick thoughts.
- Technology ferries imagination closer to reality and 3D modeling is a critical part of what will make VR “real”. It's like pulling out the multi-dimensional images from your brain and painting them on a paper to see how it looks. Having skills in Max or Maya will be super useful. It's good to know how to build something, unwrap it, and texture it. {click} Coding is essential, if you want to be able to have interactions, you’re going to have to be able to script, for now, there’s no way around it. {click} The master rule is… There are no rules. At this point in the VR experience people are just trying to figure out what works and what doesn’t, so take chances, try new things, and don’t let yourself be constrained by what you “think” will work. {click} And because there are no rules, remember that you’re going to make mistakes. Some things will work, some things won’t, it’s hard to say what people are going to “like” or not like. {click} And last, you’ll need a game engine, which, it just so happens, is what Unity provides.
- 1.6B monthly downloads that’s 600 per second 31% of the top 1000 grossing games on mobile on the planet are powered by Unity. 6.5 million developers and 1.5 million are actively using Unity monthly, we’re adding 5,000 developers per day. We’re tracking 1.7 billion devices around the world, which shows the reach of made with unity games We got here because we stand by and with developers. Democratizing development, solving hard problems and enabling success. We’ve invested heavily in supporting all major VR and AR platforms at this moment.
- Google had the foresight to bring VR to the masses with Cardboard 50 million Cardboard app installs The we moved on to Samsung’s GearVR, whose customers have streamed more than 2 million hours of video on Gear VR (source samsung) The power and excitement of VR wrapped into a portable experience you can drop in your backpack or purse. Oculus Rift’s launch saw over 60% of the apps at launch made with Unity We’re supporting Hololens in our 5.4 version, which is extremely exciting for mixed reality And now, Google will be letting consumers imaginations explore without wires and desktops with Daydream {click} We support all 7 major VR/AR platforms (gearVR, Cardboard, Daydream, Rift, SteamVR, Playstation VR and Hololens) and we want to be continue to be the engine that powers the world's VR. In this pioneer moment.
- OK - how to think about design.
- Think about the context of how/where your users consume. {click} Everything from offering UI’s that are simple and intuitive to removing redundant content. Remember that who you’re talking to isn’t always you and they may be at a much different level of understanding. CLICK Optimize the experience, In other words, create for the widest addressable market (OS and Hardware), be sensitive to battery consumption (benchmark your app/game, no one like missing a call because they’re out of juice), conserve data usage so users don’t get pissed at the end of the month, and think about the ideal time someone will spend in your experience or game so they don’t get overtired. And most of all, this is all new, so don’t forget to test and get user feedback. We don’t know everything that will and work, we’re figuring it out, so make sure you test your experience or game to see that it “works” for people. CLICK Telling a story is one of the least understood aspects of VR. It’s not because people don’t know how to tell stories, it that you creating a story in a non-linear environment, and you have to be think about things like the “bubble gum” dilemma. In other words, if you put a table in your environment, do not be surprised when someone spends 10 minutes looking underneath it for chewed bubble gum, and not “playing” in your game or experience. CLICK Lastly, give people an exit. Seems obvious, but in VR it’s just a different world. Owlchemy labs hit the nail on the head with Job Simulator . After playing, when you want to exit, you’re told to hold down a button which spawns a suitcase. You open it up, and see a burrito marked exit, which you pick up and eat to get out of the game. Seems silly, but it’s a great way to device for inducing a behavior for closing out a session. You’re curious, and you do just what you would normally do with your real hands, open the suitcase, and chomp the burrito. It’s oddly elegant, and reminds us that we need to think differently.
- Where’s this going. What’s over the horizon past this pioneer moment of testing, failing, learning, gritting it out for a piece of the pie.
- Yes, it’s a rather dystopian view of a future where everyone is connected in other realities of their choosing. Schooled in VR. Employed in VR. Entertained in VR. Virtual reality is real. Real is virtual reality. The crossover has happened.
- The key idea is instead of just one world, one reality, there will be millions more. This pioneer moment is about exploring the first genesis points of what those worlds can be. Why they should exist. We will spend time hanging out in the metaverse, creating new worlds and moving through worlds that others are creating. It’s a forever changing place only limited by people’s imaginations. And every company, every group, every person in the world will be part of it.
- Great content is going to drive adoption. Content is and always has been KING. And that's where you come in. It’s here, it’s real, and the opportunity is waiting for people, people like you to dream to invent something we haven’t thought about Eventually everyone will be there. So, Get there first. It’s going to be worth it.