This talk summarizes the implications of long-term trends in the efficiency of computing, communications, energy storage, and energy harvesting. It's one of my favorites! It took place on October 31, 2012.

1. Copyright
Jonathan
Koomey
2012
SOFTWARE
&
SYSTEMS
DESIGN
Why
ultra-­‐low
power
compu1ng
will
change
everything
Jonathan
Koomey
Research
Fellow,
Steyer-­‐Taylor
Center
for
Energy
Policy
and
Finance,
Stanford
University
jgkoomey@stanford.edu
hSp://www.koomey.com
ARM
Tech
Con,
San
Jose,
CA
October
31,
2012

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
RevoluXon
2

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
3
Cheap
Smart
Small
Connected
Low
power
+
Self
powered

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
CONSIDER
THE
POSSIBILITIES
hSp://proteusdigitalhealth.com/technology/

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
Research
quesXon:
How
has
the
energy
efficiency
of
compuXng
changed
over
Xme?
5

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
MOORE’S
LAW
• Not
a
“law”
but
an
empirical
observaXon
about
components/chip
– 1965:
doubling
every
year
– 1975:
doubling
every
2
years
• Characterizes
economics
of
chip
producXon,
not
physical
limits
• Ofen
imprecisely
cited,
interpretaXons
changed
over
Xme
(Mollick
2006)

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
MOORE’S
ORIGINAL
GRAPH
7

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
TRANSISTORS/CHIP
(000S)
The
doubling
Xme
from
1971
to
2006
is
about
1.8
years.
Data
source:
James
Larus,
Microsof
CorporaXon.
8

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
How
to
measure
the
energy
efficiency
of
computaXon?
9

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
METHOD
• ComputaXons
per
kWh
=

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
DATA
• Performance
from
Nordhaus
(2007)
or
normalized
to
that
source
using
benchmarks
for
more
recent
computers
• Used
measured
power
data,
either
published
(e.g.
Weik
1955,
1961,
1964)
or
from
archival
or
recent
computers
– with
computer
fully
uXlized
– with
screen
power
subtracted
for
portables

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
Doubling
Xme
for
performance
per
computer
=
1.5
years
in
the
PC
era
12

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
PERFORMANCE
TRENDS
(2):
COMPUTATIONS/S/COMPUTER
Source:
Nordhaus
(2007)
with
addiXonal
data
added
by
Koomey
(2009b)

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
REAL
POWER
MEASUREMENTS
OF
REAL
COMPUTERS

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
COMPUTING
EFFICIENCY
• Doubling
about
every
year
and
a
half
since
the
1940s
• 100x
improvement
every
decade
• Enabled
the
existence
of
laptops
and
smart
phones

16. Copyright
Jonathan
Koomey
2012
GOOD
CORRELATION,
CLEAR
RESULTS
• R2
for
computaXons/kWh
– 0.983
for
all
computers,
1946-­‐2009
– 0.970
for
PCs,
1975-­‐2009
• Doubling
Xme
for
computaXons/kWh
– All
computers:
1.6
years
– PCs:
1.5
years
– Vacuum
tubes:
1.35
years
• Big
jump
from
tubes
to
transistors

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
IMPLICATIONS
• AcXons
taken
to
improve
performance
also
improve
computaXons
per
kWh
– Transistors:
Smaller,
shorter
distance
source
to
drain,
fewer
electrons
– Tubes:
Smaller,
less
capacitance,
lower
currents
• Trends
make
mobile
and
distributed
compuXng
ever
more
feasible
(baSery
life
up
100x
per
decade
at
constant
compuXng
power)

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
LAPTOPS
GROWING
FAST
(WORLD
INSTALLED
BASE,
MILLIONS)
Sources—1985:
Arstechnica
+
Koomey
calcs
1996-­‐2008:
IDC

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
IT’S
NOT
JUST
ABOUT
COMPUTING
EFFICIENCY
• Low
power
>
high
efficiency
• RevoluXon
is
being
driven
by
the
confluence
of
trends
allowing
low-­‐power
– compuXng
– communicaXons
– sensors
– controls
• Energy
harvesXng
and
storage
also
criXcal
• Idle
modes
more
important
than
acXve

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
REDUCE
AREA
UNDER
THE
CURVE

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
A
MICROCONTROLLER
“RACE”
Source: Eduardo Montanez, Freescale Semiconductor (microcontroller is ARM
®
Cortex™-­‐m0+
core)

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
EFFICIENCY
OF
SIMPLE
CELL
PHONES
OVER
TIME

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
AN
EXAMPLE
OF
MOBILE
COMPUTING
+
COMMUNICATIONS
ENABLED
BY
EFFICIENCY
http://www.bigbellysolar.com
• Compacts trash 5 x
• Sends text message when full
• PV panel generates power from sunlight
• An economic and environmental home
run

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
HOW
ABOUT
REALLY
LOW
POWER
SENSORS?
• Consider
the
wireless
no-­‐baSery
sensors
created
by
Joshua
R.
Smith
of
the
University
of
Washington
hSp://www.nyXmes.com/2010/07/18/business/18novel.html,
hSp://www.economist.com/node/16295708
– sensors
use
60
microwaSs
on
average
(60x10-­‐6
waSs)
– scavenge
power
from
radio
and
TV
signals
• Other
possible
power
sources
for
similar
devices:
light,
heat,
moXon,
blood
sugar,
digesXve
fluids
Images courtesy of Josh Smith, U of WA

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
UNIVERSITY
OF
MICHIGAN
MICRO-­‐MOTE
Slide
courtesy
of
David
Blaauw
and
Dennis
Sylvester,
U
of
MI
P=11nW
sleep,
40
μW
acXve,
ARM®
M0
core

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
TUMOR
PRESSURE
MONITORING
Slide
courtesy
of
David
Blaauw
and
Dennis
Sylvester,
U
of
MI

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
STREETLINE
NETWORKS:
SMART
PARKING,
SMART
CITIES
Slide
courtesy
of
Mark
Noworolski,
Streetline
Networks
Motes
use
<400μW
on
average.
For
LA,
With
40,000
parking
spots,
that
implies
total
mote
power
of
about
15W.
Mote
technology
is
from
Dust
Networks

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
STREETLINE
NETWORKS:
SMART
PARKING,
SMART
CITIES
Slide
courtesy
of
Mark
Noworolski,
Streetline
Networks

29. Copyright
Jonathan
Koomey
2012
STREETLINE
NETWORKS:
VARIABLE
PARKING
SIGNS
Slide
courtesy
of
Mark
Noworolski,
Streetline
Networks

30. Copyright
Jonathan
Koomey
2012
DEEPER
IMPLICATIONS
• Move
bits,
not
atoms
• Customized
data
collecXon
(focus
on
nanodata,
not
big
data)
• Ever
more
precise
control
of
processes
• Real-­‐Xme
analysis
• Enabling
“the
internet
of
things”
• Bo#om
line:
beSer
matching
of
energy
services
demanded
with
those
supplied,
beSer
real-­‐Xme
control,
and
beSer
analysis.

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
THESE
TRENDS
STILL
HAVE
A
LONG
WAY
TO
RUN
Psssst:
Researchers
at
Purdue
and
the
University
of
New
South
Wales
recently
created
a
reliable
one
atom
transistor…
2041

32. Copyright
Jonathan
Koomey
2012
BIG
UNANSWERED
QUESTIONS
• Could
we
do
beSer
than
historical
trends?
• Might
we
do
worse?
If
so,
why?
• What’s
next
as
we
approach
theoreXcal
limits?

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Jonathan
Koomey
2012
CONCLUSIONS
• QuanXtaXve
results
– In
the
PC
era
(1976-­‐2009)
performance
per
computer
and
computaXons
per
kWh
doubled
every
1.5
years
– From
ENIAC
to
the
present,
computaXons
per
kWh
doubled
every
1.6
years
• Performance
and
efficiency
improvements
inextricably
linked
• SXll
far
from
theoreXcal
limits
• Big
implicaXons
for
mobile
technologies
• The
future
belongs
to
low
power
systems!

34. Copyright
Jonathan
Koomey
2012
Viva
la
Revolución!
34

35. Copyright
Jonathan
Koomey
2012
THANKS!
• Rob
Bernard,
Microsof
(funder)
• Lorie
Wigle,
Intel
(funder)
• Stephen
Berard
of
Microsof
(coauthor)
• Marla
Sanchez
of
LBNL
and
CMU
(coauthor),
and
• Henry
Wong
of
Intel
(coauthor)
• The
Computer
History
Museum
• IEEE
Annals
of
the
History
of
Compu8ng

36. Copyright
Jonathan
Koomey
2012
FURTHER
READING
Koomey,
Jonathan
G.,
Stephen
Berard,
Marla
Sanchez,
and
Henry
Wong.
2011.
"ImplicaXons
of
Historical
Trends
in
the
Electrical
Efficiency
of
CompuXng."
IEEE
Annals
of
the
History
of
Compu8ng.
vol.
33,
no.
3.
July-­‐September.
pp.
46-­‐54.
[hSp://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/MAHC.2010.28]
Koomey,
Jonathan.
2012.
"The
CompuXng
Trend
that
Will
Change
Everything."
In
Technology
Review.
April
2.
[hSp://www.technologyreview.com/news/
427444/the-­‐compuXng-­‐trend-­‐that-­‐will-­‐change-­‐everything/]
Greene,
Kate.
2011.
"A
New
and
Improved
Moore's
Law."
In
Technology
Review.
September
12.
[hSp://www.technologyreview.com/compuXng/38548/?
p1=A1]
Eisenberg,
Anne.
2010.
"Bye-­‐Bye
BaSeries:
Radio
Waves
as
a
Low-­‐Power
Source."
The
New
York
Times.
New
York,
NY.
July
18.
p.
BU3.
[hSp://
www.nyXmes.com/2010/07/18/business/18novel.html]

37. Copyright
Jonathan
Koomey
2012
REFERENCES
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Richard
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London,
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• Hilbert,
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38. Copyright
Jonathan
Koomey
2012
REFERENCES
(2)
• Yoonmyung,
Lee,
Kim
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Yejoong,
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Inhee,
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