Agile for project managers - a sailing analogy-UPDATE

Agile for Project
Managers
A sailor’s look at Agile

A presentation for

2012 GE Agile Conference

Produced by
Square Peg Consulting, LLC
Orlando, Florida USA
www.sqpegconsulting.com

Photo: US Navy

Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved
1

Agile and Sailing?
Really?

Photo: US Navy

So, let's get started!
2

Every sail (project) begins with a plan

• Opportunity
• Vision
• Narrative
• Constraints
• Resources

Chart: US NOAA

3

Recruit a small team (crew)

 Redundancy among crew (team)
 Crew master (captain) takes the helm
 Instinctive action
without direct
commands
 Proven protocols
and practices

Photo: US Navy

4

Commitment to the team

 Every sailor—
individually and
collectively—is
committed

5

Trust from shared experience

 Collaboration
and trust—
unconditionally

6

One for all ….

 No individual
success without
collective
success

7

Define scope (narrative): sail for the marks

 Prospective, strategic, top down:
Customer (sponsor) intones:
‘Make the marks’
 Retrospective, tactical, bottom up:
Team commits to Best value—
the most—and the most
important—that can be
accomplished
 Gap?

Photo US NOAA

Photo: US Navy 8

Close the prospective—retrospective gap

 Take a risk!
 Crew master (captain) is the
ultimate risk manager
 Maintains a mental image of the
risk register
 Works the response plan real-
time

Photo US NOAA

Photo: US Navy 9

From narrative to architecture

 Naval architect drives the strategic distribution of marks
 Captain is the architect of the tactics

Photo US Naval Academy

10

Embrace change!

 But… marks are updated, added new, or even deleted
from time to time

11

Lay-line is the plan

 Lay-line: most efficient
course from “here” to
“there”
 Sailing the ‘lay-line'
accumulates value
 Lay-line → ‘planned value’
PV
 Lay-line → backlog burn-
Lay-line
down plan

12

Lay-line burn-down plan

Planned Effort Earned
Segment Lay-line segment Efficiency
value burned value
(8 knts)
Red day marker to Not
(1 hour)
blinking light started
8 NM
Blinking light to green Not
16 NM
day marker started
…….
Not
…to blinking red 10 NM
started

Lay-line Segment

13

Navigation marks (Delivery milestones)

14

Wind is a source of energy

 Motive energy for the boat (project)
 Source of risks and unknowns
 Represents (also) stakeholder biases,
attitudes, and pressures
 Complex and sometimes unpredictable

15

Environment: complex and adaptive

 Boat-sails-rigging: methodology and practices
 Wind: energy, risks
 Mark: scope and sponsor expectations
 Lay-line: back-log & plan to make the ‘mark’
 Overall course: architecture

Complex: Many structural parts with uncertain
interactions and behaviors
Adaptive: Changes over time to maintain fidelity
of expectation

16

From energy to value

1. Maximize energy from favorable wind
2. Apply wind energy to create velocity
3. Measure velocity along the lay-line
4. Accumulate value by distance sailed
on the lay-line
Photo US NOAA

Accumulated valued (distance):
Velocity along the lay-line x elapsed time

17

From energy to value

8 knots (velocity) x 1 hour (elapsed time)
= 8 NM (distance)

Photo US NOAA

Accumulated valued (distance):
Velocity along the lay-line x elapsed time

18

Accumulate earned value

 EV strategy:
 Sail as close to the lay-line as possible
 Claim value earned when the mark is reached

One segment
EV from 1 to 2

19

Tack to the mark

 Tactical response to
circumstances
 Emergent with the wind
 Short performance
increments (time box)
 Variance to the planned
lay-line

Tacking: sailing one direction, and then the other, across the
lay-line

20

Most pessimistic forecast

 Wind (risk) directly opposes the boat (project)
 Least energy available in the direction of the lay-line
 Strategy:
 Find energy ‘off axis’ (evolve the plan)
 Tack (incremental performance) across the lay-line

Wind

21

Pessimistic progress

❖Example:
2 units of input (increments)
1.4 units of earned value along the lay line
Efficiency (Output / Input) = 70%
Lay-line
Wind (energy and risk)
1
Input 1 Output:
increments projected along
1.4 the lay-line

22

Benchmarks forecast velocity

 Velocity creates 'throughput'
 Throughput is "miles sailed" on the lay-line
 "Miles sailed" are like stories completed

23

Benchmark units of performance

Velocity = performance units per unit
of time
 Performance Unit (Story point) =
Nautical mile (NM)
 Unit of time (Time Box) = 1 hour
 Example:
8 knots velocity = 8 NM per hour

24

Lay-line burn-down

Effort
Segment Planned Earned
Line segment (time) Efficiency
Nr value value
burned
8 knts 7 knts
Red day marker to
1 1 hour 1.5 hr
blinking light
8 NM 10.5 NM
Blinking light to green In
2 16 NM
day marker process
…….
Not
N …to blinking red 10 NM
started

25

Lay-line burn-down

Effort
Segment Planned Earned
Line segment (time) Efficiency
Nr value value
burned
8 knts 7 knts
Red day marker to 8/10.5
1 1 hour 1.5 hr 8 NM
blinking light 76%
8 NM 10.5 NM
Blinking light to green In
2 16 NM
day marker process
…….
Not
N …to blinking red 10 NM
started

26

Cost estimating with benchmarks

1. Backlog (performance units) NM
2. Velocity benchmark (units / time) knots
3. Unit cost benchmark (cost / time )
Inputs

𝐵𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑙𝑜𝑔
Expected cost = ∗ Unit cost
𝑉𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦
Calculation

27

Cost estimating example

40𝑁𝑀
Expected cost = ∗ $1000 per hour
8 𝑘𝑛𝑡
Expected cost = 5 ℎ𝑜𝑢rs ∗ $1000 per hour
Expected cost = $5000
Example

𝐵𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑙𝑜𝑔
Expected cost = ∗ Unit cost
𝑉𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦
Calculation

28

Schedule (earned schedule)

 Earned schedule: effective time
made along the lay-line
ES = Total duration x efficiency

Efficiency:
effective duration / total duration

Photo: US NIST

29

Earnable schedule example

• Planning metrics
– 40 NM lay-line
– 8 Knot velocity benchmark
– Earnable schedule:
40/8 = 5 hours

Photo: J Goodpasture

30

Agile schedule heuristic

A schedule without slack is a hope, requiring
prayer….

But it’s unlikely to be an achievable schedule

31

Pessimistic schedule example

• Most pessimistic forecast:
𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡
– 𝐼𝑛𝑝𝑢𝑡 = 𝐿𝑎𝑦 𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑦
=
40
= 57NM
0.7
57
– 𝐷𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = = 7.2 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠
8

32

Slack schedule example

• Required schedule slack:

Pessimistic duration – Earnable
schedule
7.2 − 5 = 2.2 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠

33

Scale is manageable

The fleet has sortied
The fleet has sortied!

Photo US Navy

34

Scale is manageable

 Vision and strategic direction
 Conveyed from the fleet captain
 Each boat is a self-directing team,
 But learns from the performance of others
 Protocols observed
 For communication, sequencing, and
coordination
 Each boat maintains situational awareness

35

Rolling wave planning

 Information relayed to others by boats on the leading
edge of the fleet ( 'over the horizon‘)
 Far out lay-lines planned as approached
 Adjustments made for obstructions and wind shifts

36

There’s a lot more to know….

• Jim Highsmith: “Agile Project Management: Creating
innovative products”
• Dean Leffingwell: “Agile Software Requirements: Lean
requirements practices for Teams, Programs, and the
Enterprise”
• Mike Cohn: “Agile Estimating and Planning”
• Lisa Crispin and Janet Gregory: “Agile Testing: A practical
guide for Testers and Agile Teams”

37

Read more…

Large scale projects
in large scale
organizations

Photo: J. Ross Publishing

38

Learn more…

PMI® eSeminarsWorldsm instructor

• Agile Project Management
• Advanced Risk Management
and
• Understanding Organizational
Change

39
Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights
Reserved

All done and ready for questions!

41

Agile for project managers - a sailing analogy-UPDATE

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