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To sign up to receive an electronic copy of this Industry Research Monitor, please visit www.gecapital.com/IRM                                     Winter 2011


GE Capital




Industry Research Monitor


Truck
Transportation
The U.S. economy and freight indicators are holding
steady despite economists’ warnings of a double-
dip recession. Even though truck and trailer orders
continue to see year-over-year gains due to aging
equipment and improving carrier operating rates,
rates have slowed as carriers remain cautious
about the future.
CONTENTS
Current Economic Environment ....................... 2
Trucking Demand ................................................. 3
Truck and Trailer Orders ..................................... 4
Costs ......................................................................... 7
Recent Industry News and Developments .... 9
Bonus Depreciation ............................................13




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Current Economic Environment                                                                                                                       ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT HEADLINES




A
                                                                                                                                                                    •	 Real GDP increased +2.5% in 3Q11 after
        ccording to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real gross                                                                                                        increasing +1.3% in 2Q11.
        domestic product (GDP) grew +2.5% in 3Q11 after                                                                                                             •	 Industrial Production increased +3.3%
        increasing +1.3% in 2Q11. The increase in personal                                                                                                             YoY in 3Q11 after increasing +3.7% YoY in
                                                                                                                                                                       2Q11.
  consumption expenditures came as a result of declining savings                                                                                                    •	 ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index declined
  rather than increased disposable personal income.                                                                                                                    -7.9% YoY and -9.5% QoQ to average 51.0
                                                                                                                                                                       in 3Q11.
  Industrial Production and ISM                                                                                                                                     •	 Retail Sales increase +8.0% YoY and
                                                                                                                                                                       +1.1% QoQ in 3Q11. Retail sales
  A key leading indicator of trucking activity, the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production                                                                            increased +7.7% in 2Q11.
  Index continues to grow. 3Q11 industrial production increased +3.3% year-over-year (YoY)
  after increasing +3.7% YoY in 2Q11. The Index increased +1.3% quarter-over-quarter
  (QoQ) in 3Q11 after increasing +0.1% sequentially in 2Q11. Capacity utilization increased
  +2.5% YoY and increased +1.0% on a sequential basis in 3Q11.

  Industrial Production (Seasonally Adjusted)
             105                                                                                                 10%



                                                                                                                 5%
             100


                                                                                                                 0%
                           95
                                                                                                                        YoY % Change
Index




                                                                                                                 -5%

                           90
                                                                                                                 -10%
                                                                                                                                                     Index
                           85                                                                                                                        YoY % Change
                                                                                                                 -15%

                                                                                                                                       Source: Federal Reserve

                           80                                                                                    -20%
                                 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11

  For the second consecutive quarter, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM)
  Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) declined on a YoY basis. PMI declined -7.9% YoY in
  3Q11 and -9.5% QoQ to an average of 51.0.
  A PMI reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally
  expanding; below 50 indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI in excess of 42.5, over
  a period of time, indicates that the overall economy or GDP, is generally expanding;
  below 42.5, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 or 42.5 is indicative of the
  strength of the expansion or decline.

  ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index
                                65


                                60


                                55
ISM Purchasing Managers Index




                                50


                                45


                                40

                                                                                                                                       Source: Institute for
                                35
                                                                                                                                       Supply Management


                                30
                                     1Q08   3Q08       1Q09      3Q09       1Q10       3Q10      1Q11         3Q11


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Retail Sales
       Another key indicator of truckload activity is Retail Sales as reported by the U.S. Census
       Bureau. Retail trade and food services grew +8.0% YoY in 3Q11 after increasing +7.7%
       in 2Q11. Retail sales increased +1.1% QoQ in 3Q11 after increasing +1.2% QoQ in 2Q11.

       Retail Sales (Seasonally Adjusted $Bn)
                                 400                                                                                15%


                                 390
                                                                                                                    10%

                                 380
Retail Sales And Food Services




                                                                                                                    5%

                                 370




                                                                                                                           YoY % Change
                                                                                                                    0%
                                 360
                                                                                                                                                       Retail & Food Services
                                                                                                                    -5%                                YoY % Change
                                 350

                                                                                                                    -10%
                                 340


                                 330                                                                                -15%
                                                                                                                                          Source: Source: U.S. Census Bureau
                                       1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11


Other Indicators
According to the Fibre Box Association (FBA), containerboard or corrugated box
shipments increased +0.2% YoY in 3Q11 after declining -0.5% in 2Q11.
According to the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker, import cargo volume
at the nation’s major retail container ports declined -3.0% YoY in 3Q11. They are
forecasting 4Q11 volumes to increase +3.1% YoY while they forecast a slow start to 2012
with January and February declining -3.6% and -3.8% YoY, respectively.

                Trucking Demand



D
      espite conflicting economic data, demand for trucking                                                                                                                     TRUCKING DEMAND HEADLINES
      services continues to remain positive. Increased volumes                                                                                                                  •	 ATA Truck Tonnage Index increased +5.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                   YoY and increased +0.4% QoQ in 3Q11.
      and rising freight rates make way for improved company
                                                                                                                                                                                •	 Cass Freight Shipments Index increased
financials.                                                                                                                                                                        +7.5% YoY and increased +2.2% QoQ in
                                                                                                                                                                                   3Q11.
In our 2011 GE Capital Transportation Survey, 71% of trucking carriers we surveyed
expect improved business conditions in 2011. In addition, the vast majority of
respondents anticipate increases in number of shipments/loads, loaded miles, average
revenue per tractor and average revenue per loaded mile.

Truck Tonnage Index
According to the American Trucking Associations (ATA), the trucking tonnage index
increased +5.5% YoY 3Q11 and increased +0.4% over 2Q11 to average seasonally
adjusted rate of 114.8.
In the September ATA Truck Tonnage press release, ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello
states, “I continue to believe the economy will skirt another recession because truck
tonnage isn’t showing signs that we are in a recession,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello
said. “Tonnage is suggesting that we are in a weak growth period for the economy, but
not a recession.”




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ATA Truck Tonnage Index
        120                                                                                10%



                                                                                           5%
        115


                                                                                           0%




                                                                                                  YoY % Change
        110
Index




                                                                                           -5%

        105
                                                                                           -10%

                                                                                                                              Index
        100
                                                                                           -15%                               YoY % Change



                                                                                                                 Source: American Trucking Associations
         95                                                                                -20%
              1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11



Cass Freight Index
The Cass Freight Index as reported by Cass Information Systems, Inc. continues to be
positive. The Shipments Index increased +7.5% YoY in 3Q11, slower than the +8.9% YoY
growth seen in 2Q11 and +12.5% growth in 1Q11. The Shipments Index increased +2.2%
QoQ. The Expenditures Index increased +19.9% YoY in 3Q11 but declined modestly on a
sequential basis (-0.4% QoQ) after a +13.7% QoQ increase in 2Q11. This suggests a very
healthy 2Q11 implied rate increase of +11.6% YoY and -2.5% QoQ.

Cass Freight Index
        2.6


        2.3


        2.0
Index




        1.7
                                                                                                                              Expenditures

                                                                                                                              Shipments
        1.4


        1.1

                                                                                                                 Source: Cass Information Systems
        0.8
              1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11




        Truck and Trailer Orders



H
                   igh asset age, increased capacity utilization and
                   improving used equipment valuations will help truck and
                   trailer orders through 2011 and 2012.
While 71% of respondents to our 2011 GE Capital Transportation survey expect
improved business conditions, only 51% state they will increase the size of their
company sleeper cab fleets, 26% say they will increase the size of their company
day cab fleets and 55% state they will increase the size of their trailer fleet. This gap
between improving business conditions and revenue metrics vs. truck orders is likely due
to carriers’ sobering views on rising expenses.
For 2012, their outlook is much improved with more carriers expecting to add to their
fleet in every equipment category.


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Heavy-Duty Truck Orders
U.S. Class 8 truck net truck orders continued to exhibit strength in 3Q11. Net orders
increased +65.9% YoY to 45,000 compared the year ago quarter. Orders are significantly
improved from the cyclical low of 17,000 orders in 1Q10 but below the high of 107,000 in
1Q06.
                                                                                                                                                      TRUCK AND TRAILER ORDER HEADLINES
The cancellation rate has increased from a low of 4.6% in January and February of this
year to 7.8% in June and 11.2% in September. We will keep an eye on this number to                                                                    •	 Heavy-duty net truck orders increased
                                                                                                                                                         +65.9% YoY in 3Q11. Retail sales of
determine whether it represents a normal, end-of-year cleaning-up of the order book or
                                                                                                                                                         heavy-duty trucks increased +56.1% YoY
real cancellations due to a change in economic outlook.                                                                                                  in the same period.
Retail sales increased +56.1% YoY in 3Q11 to 44,000 as very strong order volumes                                                                      •	 Medium-duty net truck orders increased
continue to make their way onto the road. Net orders barely outpaced retail sales so                                                                     +19.1% YoY in 3Q11 with strength the
backlogs increased +158.0% YoY off very low levels in 3Q10 but are down -3.5% from                                                                       Class 6-7 markets offset by a slight
                                                                                                                                                         decline in Class 5 orders. Retail sales of
the prior quarter. The backlog-to-build ratio averaged 5.9 months in the quarter, down
                                                                                                                                                         medium-duty trucks increased +43.4%
from 2Q11. Build rates in August rose to the highest level since January 2007. If the                                                                    YoY in the same period.
maximum build rate in the last cycle is any indication, it was 30,000 trucks in October
                                                                                                                                                      •	 Trailer orders increased +18.1% YoY in
2006.
                                                                                                                                                         3Q11.
Absolute levels of inventories increased throughout the quarter, increasing +58.2% YoY
in 1Q11 off historic lows in 3Q10. Inventories increased +12.9% QoQ. The inventory-to-
sales ratio continues to decline from an average of 2.32 months in 1Q11 to an average
of 2.09 months in 3Q11 due to improving retail sales volumes.

U.S. Class 8 Net Truck Orders
              60,000                                                                                300%

              55,000                                                                                250%

              50,000
                                                                                                    200%
                                                                                                            YoY % Change




              45,000
 Net Orders




                                                                                                    150%
              40,000
                                                                                                    100%
              35,000
                                                                                                    50%
              30,000                                                                                                                   Net Orders

                                                                                                    0%                                 YoY % Change
              25,000

              20,000                                                                                -50%
                                                                                                                           Source: ACT Research
              15,000                                                                                -100%
                       1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11



Medium-Duty Truck Orders
Net orders of U.S. Class 5-7 trucks increased +19.1% YoY to 21,000 in 3Q11. Medium-
duty net truck orders are significantly improved from the cyclical low of 7,800 orders in
2Q09 but are significantly below the cyclical high of 60,000 orders in 1Q06. Net orders
increased +45.6% YoY for Class 6-7 trucks while net orders of Class 5 trucks declined
-0.3% YoY. Net orders have remained relatively flat over the past 3 quarters perhaps due
to companies seeing mixed results in their business and taking a wait-and-see approach
to capital expenditures and asset purchases.
Retail sales increased +43.4% YoY in 3Q11 to 23,000 after increasing +50.6% YoY in
2Q11. Class 5 retail sales increased +18.1% YoY in 3Q11 while retail sales in the Class 6-7
market increased +67.9% YoY.
This is the first quarter since 2Q10 where net orders have not outpaced retail sales.
Backlogs declined -12.4% QoQ but are +47.0% above a year ago. The backlog-to-build
ratio declined slightly.
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Absolute levels of inventory declined -38.9% YoY in 3Q11 but increased +4.3% QoQ. On a
  relative basis, the inventory-to-sales ratio continues to increase from 2.5 months in 1Q11
  to 3.0 months in 3Q11.

  U.S. Class 5-7 Net Truck Orders

             40,000                                                                                    200%


             35,000
                                                                                                       150%

             30,000

                                                                                                       100%
             25,000




                                                                                                               YoY % Change
Net Orders




             20,000                                                                                    50%
                                                                                                                                           Net Orders

             15,000                                                                                                                        YoY % Change
                                                                                                       0%

             10,000

                                                                                                       -50%
              5,000
                                                                                                                               Source: ACT Research

                      0                                                                                -100%
                          1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11




   Trailer Orders
   Trailers net orders increased +18.1% YoY to 42,000 in 3Q11. Trailer orders are
   significantly improved from cyclical lows of 11,000 orders in 4Q08 but are still below
   cyclical highs of 102,000 orders in 1Q06. 3Q11 orders represent a -16.6% decrease over
   3Q11.
   Orders of liquid and dry tank trailers showed significant YoY growth in 3Q11, nearly
   doubling last year’s volumes while orders of refrigerated trailers declined -32.1% YoY
   in 3Q11. Dry van orders increased +20.1% YoY but declined -24.2% QoQ, the third
   consecutive quarter of declines.

   Net Trailer Orders
             80,000                                                                                    200%


             70,000
                                                                                                       150%

             60,000

                                                                                                       100%
                                                                                                                YoY % Change




             50,000
Net Orders




             40,000                                                                                    50%
                                                                                                                                            Net Orders
             30,000                                                                                                                         YoY % Change
                                                                                                       0%

             20,000

                                                                                                       -50%
             10,000
                                                                                                                               Source: ACT Research

                  0                                                                                    -100%
                          1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11


   Factory shipments increased +65.7% YoY in 3Q11 to 58,000 after increasing +51.6%
   YoY in 2Q11. For the second consecutive quarter since 3Q09, net orders did not exceed
   shipments or build rates. Absolute backlogs increased +71.7% YoY in 3Q11 but declined
   -15.0% from 2Q11. The backlog-to-build ratio declined from 5.4 months in 2Q11 to 4.4
   months in 3Q11 with strong build rates. The 2Q11 build rate is at its highest level since
   2Q07.
   Absolute levels of inventory in 3Q11 increased +25.2% from a year ago but declined
   -5.7% from 2Q11.

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Costs



 T
                  rucking fleets are facing higher cost pressures from the
                  rising cost of diesel fuel and recruiting and retaining
                  quality drivers to complying with regulatory requirements.
 Even though 71% of respondents to our 2011 GE Capital Transportation survey
 anticipate improved business conditions, the majority (57%) expect their operating rate
 to increase in 2011. 17% expect their operating rate to stay the same and 22% expect
 their operating rate to decrease.

 Diesel Fuel
 The price of on-highway diesel fuel increased +31.6% YoY in 3Q11 but declined -3.7%
 QoQ to an average of $3.87 per gallon. October marks the fifth consecutive month in
 which diesel has shown month-over-month declines.
 In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) decreased
 its projection of diesel and gasoline prices. The EIA now expects diesel to increase
 +27.1% to an average $3.80 per gallon in 2011 and decline -1.8% to $3.73 per gallon in
 2012. Diesel averaged $3.80 per gallon in October 2011.

 On-Highway Diesel Fuel ($/gallon)
        5.00                                                                                80%


                                                                                            60%
        4.50


                                                                                            40%
        4.00
                                                                                                   YoY % Change




                                                                                            20%
Price




        3.50                                                                                                                   Price

                                                                                            0%                                 YoY % Change


        3.00                                                                                                                                           COST HEADLINES
                                                                                            -20%
                                                                                                                                                       •	 Average price of diesel fuel increased
        2.50
                                                                                            -40%                  Source: U.S. Department of Energy,      +31.6% YoY and declined -3.7% QoQ in
                                                                                                                  Energy Information Administration
                                                                                                                                                          3Q11. The EIA expects diesel to increase
        2.00                                                                                -60%
               1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
                                                                                                                                                          +27.1 % to $3.80 per gallon in 2011.
                                                                                                                                                          Diesel averaged $3.80 per gallon in
 The average price of gasoline (all grades) increased +33.0% YoY in 3Q11 but declined                                                                     October 2011.
 from 2Q11 to an average of $3.69 per gallon. October marks the fifth consecutive month                                                                •	 Average new heavy-duty truck prices
 of sequential declines. The EIA expects gasoline to increase +26.6% to $3.52 per gallon                                                                  increased +2.9% YoY at Rush Enterprises
 in 2011 and decline -2.6% to $3.43 in 2012. Regular gasoline averaged $3.51 per gallon                                                                •	 Average new medium-duty truck prices
 in October 2011.                                                                                                                                         decreased -1.2% YoY at Rush Enterprises
                                                                                                                                                       •	 Average used truck prices increased
 In our 2011 GE Capital Transportation Survey, 96% of carriers surveyed expected the
                                                                                                                                                          +6.4% at Rush Enterprises
 average price of diesel fuel to increase in 2011. In addition, 67% of carriers cited the
                                                                                                                                                       •	 In 3Q11, truck transportation employment
 rising cost of diesel fuel to be one of the top 3 challenges for their company in 2011.
                                                                                                                                                          increased by 35,300 persons or +2.8%
                                                                                                                                                          YoY.




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Equipment, Parts, Supplies and Maintenance
In their 3Q11 earning release, Rush Enterprises number of new heavy-duty truck sold
increased +92.7% YoY in 3Q11 with an average selling price of $131,300, up 2.9% YoY
and up +3.5% from 2Q10. The number of new medium duty trucks sold increased
+119.5% YoY with and average selling price of $69,587, a -1.2% decrease from a year
ago and -1.8% from 2Q10. The number of used vehicles sold increased +30.1% YoY
in 3Q11 with average selling price of $44,274, up 6.4% from a year ago and +8% from
2Q10.
In their second quarter earnings release, W. M. “Rusty” Rush, President and Chief
Executive Officer for Rush Enterprises, Inc stated, “ In its third quarter earning press
release, Rush Enterprises stated: “The Company expects U.S. Class 8 retail sales will
remain on pace to reach approximately 165,000 to 170,000 units by year end in 2011,
which remains below historical replacement levels. Industry experts currently forecast
Class 8 U.S. retail sales to be 214,000 units for 2012. Medium-duty commercial vehicle
sales continued to be negatively impacted by supply issues faced by several medium-
duty truck manufacturers, but the Company expects medium-duty commercial vehicle
sales to increase before the end of the year as these supply issues are resolved. “
In our 2011 GE Capital Transportation Survey, 62% of carriers expect the cost of
maintenance and service to increase in 2011. 12% anticipate their maintenance and
service costs will stay the same while 26% of carriers expect it to decrease. In addition,
41% of carriers cite rising equipment, parts and maintenance costs as one of the top 3
challenges for their business in 2011.
As a result of an aging fleet and increased maintenance intervals, carriers may
experience increased maintenance costs in 2011. The greatest impact to overall costs
will likely come from the increased frequency of repairs as a direct result of deferred
vehicle replacement. Older fleets will likely experience larger effects. In addition,
there may be spike in unscheduled, higher-cost maintenance which impacts not only
maintenance dollars but also increases driver downtime.

Employment
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the trucking industry employed 35,300 more
people in September 2011 than it did a year ago. On a seasonally adjusted basis, truck
transportation employment increased +2.8% YoY in 3Q11 after increasing +3.1% YoY in
2Q11.
Sequentially, employment increased +0.3% (or 4,300 jobs) on a seasonally adjusted
basis. This marks the sixth consecutive quarter that truck transportation has seen QoQ
seasonally adjusted employment gains.




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Truck Transportation Employment (seasonally adjusted)
             1,450                                                                                                            4%


                                                                                                                              2%

             1,400
                                                                                                                              0%


                                                                                                                              -2%
             1,350




                                                                                                                                    YoY % Change
Employment




                                                                                                                              -4%


             1,300                                                                                                                                               Employment
                                                                                                                              -6%
                                                                                                                                                                 YoY % Change

                                                                                                                              -8%
             1,250

                                                                                                                              -10%                 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics


             1,200                                                                                                            -12%
                     1Q08   2Q08   3Q08   4Q08   1Q09   2Q09   3Q09   4Q09   1Q10   2Q10   3Q10   4Q10   1Q11   2Q11   3Q11



In our 2011 GE Capital Transportation Survey, 74% of carriers cite recruiting and hiring
quality drivers to be one of the top 3 challenges for their company in 2011. Additionally,
71% of carriers anticipate increases in salaries, wages and benefit expense.

             Recent Industry News and Developments
Recent Industry News
•	 The U.S. and Mexico formalized a cross-border trucking program that will end more
   than $2 billion of tariffs on exported U.S. goods and open up U.S. roadways to approved
   Mexican trucks. According to the Dept. of Transportation, the agreement calls for
   Mexican trucks to comply with all Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and they
   must utilize electronic monitoring systems to track hours-of-service compliance. DOT
   will also review driving records and require drug testing of all drivers, to be analyzed by
   the Dept. of Health and Human Services at approved U.S. labs. Mexican drivers will also
   have to prove “their ability to understand the English language and U.S. traffic signs.”
   U.S. carriers will receive reciprocal authority to operate in Mexico.

•	 C.R. England has made some major changes in senior management following Dan
   England’s appointment as chairman of the American Trucking Associations. Effectively
   immediately, Dan England, Chairman and President, will assume the title of Chairman
   and Dean England, Chief Executive Officer, will assume the title of President. Wayne
   Cederholm, Chief Operating Officer, will become Chief Executive Officer and Chad
   England, formerly President, England North America, will assume the title of Chief
   Operating Officer.

•	 Navistar is officially closing its Chatham, Ontario truck manufacturing facility. The plant
   has been idle since June 2009.

•	 Congress voted to re-extend the current highway program through March 2012.

•	 Shareholders of YRC Worldwide voted in favor of is restructuring – an internal
   merger agreement to combine YRC Worldwide and its recently created YRC Merger
   Sub subsidiary. YRC Worldwide’s banking group will now own about 72.5% of the
   Company’s stock, its Teamsters employees about 25% and remaining shareholders
   about 2.5%.




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© 2011 General Electric Capital Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
•	 Congress unveiled new fuel efficiency rules from the Environmental Protection Agency
   and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Combination tractors
   (semi-trucks) will be required to achieve up to approximately 20% reduction in fuel
   consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by model year 2018. Heavy-duty pick-
   up trucks and vans will be required to achieve up to approximately 15% reduction in
   fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by model year 2018 with separate
   standards for gasoline and diesel engines. Vocational vehicles (delivery trucks, buses
   and refuse trucks) will be required to achieve up to approximately 100% reduction in
   fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by model year 2018.

•	 Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood will not be seeking a second term at that post.
   He said he would step down at the end of President Obama’s current term in 2012. The
   former Republican congressman from Illinois also said he would not run for public office
   again. He served in Congress for 14 years before joining Obama’s cabinet. He said he
   wanted to enter the private sector after leaving the administration and gave no further
   reason for his departure.

•	 Russell Gerdin, the son of a truck driver who founded Heartland Express died October
   15. He was 70 years old. Gerdin founded Heartland Express in 1978, shortly before
   federal deregulation redrew the map of the trucking industry. Deregulation created the
   irregular route, long-haul truckload carrier, and Heartland Express expanded rapidly in
   the 1980s, going public as early as 1986. Gerdin took a leave of absence in January due
   to poor health. His son Michael Gerdin was named president, CEO and chairman.

(5) Revenue includes truck segment revenue. Net Income includes truck segment operating income.


Selected Commentary
Carriers
•	 In their fiscal first quarter earnings release, Chairman and CEO Steve Russell
   commentedon the results of the September 2011 quarter: “Our average rate per
   loaded mile improved to $1.53, up approximately six cents per mile from the September
   2010 quarter, or 3.7%. Seated count declined about six percent, related to the more
   challenging driver shortage in the industry.” In addition, “On October 11, 2011, we filed
   a 13D indicating that Celadon has acquired 6.3% of the stock of USA Truck Inc. In USA
   Truck’s September 2011 quarter release, they indicated that their Board of Directors
   has unanimously decided to decline a meeting with us. At Celadon’s Board of Directors
   meeting earlier this week, we were quite disappointed with their reaction, and we
   decided to consider alternative actions.”

•	 Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Kevin P. Knight, offered the following comments
   in the company’s third quarter earnings press release: “We improved our revenue per
   tractor excluding fuel surcharge by 4.6%, as a result of a 2.3% increase in miles per
   tractor and a 2.2% increase in revenue per total mile (not including fuel surcharge), as
   compared to the third quarter last year.“




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© 2011 General Electric Capital Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
•	 In USA Truck’s third quarter earnings release, Cliff Beckham, President and CEO, made the
   following statements: “Our business environment was softer than in the second quarter.
   We felt a modest step-down in overall freight demand in our markets, which we attribute
   to slower growth in the U.S. economy. In addition, we began phasing out service on two
   major accounts, one due to the end of a project and one due to inadequate pricing. In a
   softer overall freight market, we had fewer opportunities to replace all of this business
   with high-quality freight. Industry-wide, we believe freight demand and trucking capacity
   are in relative equilibrium, but the spot market is less robust than during the second
   quarter. This contributed to a reduction in overall miles and an increase in our percentage
   of non-revenue miles. For the quarter, in our Trucking operations, tractor utilization
   decreased 13.2% and our empty mile factor increased approximately 200 basis points,
   to 12.4%, compared with the third quarter of 2010. Base Trucking revenue per mile
   was a positive, however, rising approximately 7.2% compared with the third quarter
   of 2010. From a cost perspective, driver wages, net fuel cost, equipment repairs, and
   insurance and claims all increased on a per mile basis. These increases more than offset
   our increase in Trucking revenue per mile. In addition, the decrease in tractor utilization
   less effectively covered our fixed costs, and increased empty miles percentage hurt fuel
   surcharge recovery as well as overall base revenue per mile.”

•	 In their 3Q11 earnings release, Werner Enterprises stated, “We continue to believe that
   generally favorable truckload freight trends are caused to a greater degree by supply
   side constraints limiting truckload capacity, as opposed to demand generated by
   economic activity. ”

OEM
•	 In their third quarter interim report, Daimler Trucks showed a +74.4% YoY increase in U.S.
   unit sales.

•	 PACCAR executive vice president, Dan Sobic stated in the company’s third quarter
   earnings press release, Class 8 industry retail sales in the U.S. and Canada are expected
   to be in the range of 185,000-200,000 vehicles in 2011. Our customers are benefiting
   from higher freight tonnage and improved freight rates,” said Dan Sobic, PACCAR
   executive vice president. “For the first nine months of 2011, PACCAR achieved a
   record Class 8 retail market share in the U.S. and Canada of 27.7 percent as customers
   benefited from Kenworth and Peterbilt vehicles’ low operating cost advantage. Estimates
   for industry Class 8 retail sales in 2012 are in the range of 205,000-230,000 units, driven
   primarily by ongoing replacement of the aging fleet. Annual replacement demand for
   the U.S. and Canadian truck market is approximately 225,000 units,” added Sobic.

•	 At Volvo, net sales in North America increased +29.1% YoY in 3Q11. Replacement
   demand continues to be the primary driver of new truck sales, particularly highway
   tractors. Activity in the refuse sector has remained steady. Ongoing weakness in
   construction has been partially offset by demand for heavy-duty trucks vehicles in
   energy-related enterprises. In 2011, the North American market for heavy-duty trucks is
   expected to reach a level of about 210,000 trucks, (previous estimate: 230,000-240,000).
   For 2012 the total market is expected to grow by about 20%.

•	 Wabash National’s Dick Giromini, President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, “Never
   before has our industry experienced such a rapid recovery in demand as we have seen
   over the past 12 to 18 months.” New trailer shipments of 11,400 increased 111% YoY.
   “Increases in commodity and component costs coupled with the inherent challenges
   associated with the capacity ramp-up to support the increased demand impacted our
   gross margin for the quarter.”

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© 2011 General Electric Capital Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
3Q11 Earnings Summary                                                            YoY % Change
                                                                                      Revenue
                                                Operating                              ex Fuel              Net
                                                  Rate              Revenue          Surcharge            Income
 TL Carriers
 Celadon Group                                      93.7              0.8%              -6.0%             21.5%
 Heartland Express      (1)
                                                    81.0              4.2%               N.A.             -15.8%
 J.B. Hunt                                          89.9             18.8%              10.8%             31.6%
 Knight Transportation                              87.8             18.7%              13.2%              0.3%
 Landstar System                                    92.8              9.8%               N.A.             40.0%
 Patriot Transportation Holding         (2)
                                                    90.7             13.5%               N.A.              -8.5%
 Quality Distribution     (1)
                                                    92.3              9.5%               5.1%               N.M.
 USA Truck (1)                                     104.5              9.6%               1.9%               N.M.
 Werner Enterprises                                 90.2             10.0%               0.7%             22.4%

 LTL Carriers
 Arkansas Best                                      95.9             14.7%               N.A.               N.M.
 Old Dominion Freight Line                          86.2             24.9%               N.A.             58.4%
 Saia                                               96.4             14.3%               N.A.             93.5%
 YRC Worldwide                                     101.9             12.3%               N.A.               N.M.

 Engine, Truck & Trailer OEMs                                Units Sold            Revenue            Net Income
 Cummins                                                        47.3%               36.0%                -10.5%
 Daimler Trucks                                                 74.4%               18.4%                11.9%
 Navistar     (3)
                                                                40.1%               10.4%                 N.M.
 PACCAR      (4)
                                                                82.1%               73.3%               134.9%
 Volvo (5)                                                      24.1%               15.9%                46.7%
 Wabash National                                               1000%                96.9%                 N.M.


N.A. = Not Available
N.M. = Not Material
(1) Operating rate and net income excludes net gain on the disposal of revenue equipment
(2) Revenue and operating rate includes transportation segment only.
(3) For the quarter ended April 30. Revenue includes sales of manufactured products and excludes finance revenues.
(4) Revenue includes truck and other revenue and excludes financial services.




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© 2011 General Electric Capital Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
New and used equipment investments
can = tax-savings opportunities
Take advantage of 100% bonus                                                                                           For used equipment: Section 179 benefits
depreciation for new equipment                                                                                         When purchasing used equipment, you may be able to
For 2011, the purchaser of new equipment may be                                                                        utilize the Section 179 expense allowance, which has
able to expense up to 100% of the new capital equip-                                                                   risen to $500,000. Contact your equipment dealer
ment expenditure. This tax-savings opportunity is                                                                      for more information.
available throughout the 2011 tax year.
                                                                                                                             Used equipment investment                                       $750,000

What this means                                                                                                              With Section 179
If your business operates as a sole proprietorship, part-                                                                    Section 179 Allowance*                                           $500,000
nership or corporation, this makes equipment purchases                                                                       20% first year depreciation                                       $50,000
more affordable. Now is the time to take advantage of                                                                        Potential tax deduction                                          $550,000
big tax benefits, acquire the equipment you need and                                                                         Potential 1st year savings**                                     $192,500
put it to work for your business today.
                                                                                                                             Without Section 179
   New equipment investment                                         $750,000                                                 Section 179 Allowance                                               ---
                                                                                                                             20% first year depreciation                                      $150,000
   100% Bonus Depreciation*                                         $750,000                                                 Potential tax deduction                                          $150,000
   Potential tax deduction                                          $750,000                                                 Potential 1st year savings**                                       $52,500
   Potential 1st year savings                                       $262,500
                                                                                                                             Section 179 savings difference                                  $140,000

    After-tax equipment cost                                      $487,500



Take advantage with GE Capital
GE Capital has dedicated resources to help you respond quickly and effectively to this remarkable tax-saving
opportunity! Contact your local dealership to get started.
*Section 179: Allows taxpayers to deduct the cost of qualifying equipment up to $500,000, and includes “off the shelf” software purchases, rather than depreciating the cost over a period of several years. For any remaining
amount above the $500,000 allowance, you are entitled to take the first year depreciation. The maximum dollar amount of equipment you can purchase in 2011 is $2,000,000 before the deduction is reduced dollar for
dollar for purchases in excess of $2,000,000. For used property, the 20% First Year Depreciation can be taken after Section 179 deduction in the first year the equipment is placed in service assuming MACRS, 5-year life,
200% declining balance, or half-year convention.
This brochure is provided for general reference only, contains a partial overview of certain sections of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended (the “Code”), and is not intended to be a detailed discussion of the
depreciation rules or any other provision(s) of the Code. Nothing herein constitutes any tax, accounting or legal advice, and it cannot be used or relied upon to avoid any penalties that may be imposed under U.S. Federal
tax laws. You should consult your own independent tax , accounting and/or legal advisors for advice that is based upon your particular circumstances. Nothing herein constitutes a proposal or commitment for any
particular transaction. Any such transaction would be subject to credit and other relevant approvals at GE and would be subject to the execution of documentation in form and substance satisfactory to GE.



INDUSTRY RESEARCH TEAM
Serena Tse                           Scott Cohen                           Jeff Englander                       Kimberly Savilonis                    Loren Trotta                          Michael Zimm, CFA
646-428-7249                         646-428-7242                          646-428-7135                         480-565-6289                          203-229-1877                          646-428-7015
serena.tse@ge.com                    scott.cohen@ge.com                    jeffrey.englander@ge.com             kimberly.savilonis@                   loren.trotta@ge.com                   michael.zimm@ge.com
Construction                         Consumer & Leisure                    Healthcare                           ge.com                                Food, Beverage &                      Technology & Business
Transportation                       Products                              Industrial Products &                                                      Agribusiness                          Services
                                     Media, Communications &               Services                                                                   Financial Services                    Aerospace & Defense
Richard Aldrich, CFA                 Entertainment
646-428-7365
richard.aldrich@ge.com
Chemicals & Plastics
Metals & Mining
Auto & Auto Parts


 Disclaimer: Although General Electric Capital Corporation (“GE”) believes that the information contained in this newsletter has been obtained from and is based upon sources GE
 believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. GE makes no representation or warranties of any kind whatsoever in respect of
 such information. GE accepts no liability of any kind for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this newsletter. This newsletter is not to be relied upon in substitution
 for the exercise of your independent judgment or legal advice.


Subscribe to other Industry Research Monitors | Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas                                                 Industry Research Monitor: Truck Transportation 13
© 2011 General Electric Capital Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

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4 Q11 Transportation Monitor

  • 1. To sign up to receive an electronic copy of this Industry Research Monitor, please visit www.gecapital.com/IRM Winter 2011 GE Capital Industry Research Monitor Truck Transportation The U.S. economy and freight indicators are holding steady despite economists’ warnings of a double- dip recession. Even though truck and trailer orders continue to see year-over-year gains due to aging equipment and improving carrier operating rates, rates have slowed as carriers remain cautious about the future. CONTENTS Current Economic Environment ....................... 2 Trucking Demand ................................................. 3 Truck and Trailer Orders ..................................... 4 Costs ......................................................................... 7 Recent Industry News and Developments .... 9 Bonus Depreciation ............................................13 Subscribe to other Industry Research Monitors | Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas Industry Research Monitor: Truck Transportation 1 © 2011 General Electric Capital Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
  • 2. Current Economic Environment ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT HEADLINES A • Real GDP increased +2.5% in 3Q11 after ccording to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real gross increasing +1.3% in 2Q11. domestic product (GDP) grew +2.5% in 3Q11 after • Industrial Production increased +3.3% increasing +1.3% in 2Q11. The increase in personal YoY in 3Q11 after increasing +3.7% YoY in 2Q11. consumption expenditures came as a result of declining savings • ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index declined rather than increased disposable personal income. -7.9% YoY and -9.5% QoQ to average 51.0 in 3Q11. Industrial Production and ISM • Retail Sales increase +8.0% YoY and +1.1% QoQ in 3Q11. Retail sales A key leading indicator of trucking activity, the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production increased +7.7% in 2Q11. Index continues to grow. 3Q11 industrial production increased +3.3% year-over-year (YoY) after increasing +3.7% YoY in 2Q11. The Index increased +1.3% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in 3Q11 after increasing +0.1% sequentially in 2Q11. Capacity utilization increased +2.5% YoY and increased +1.0% on a sequential basis in 3Q11. Industrial Production (Seasonally Adjusted) 105 10% 5% 100 0% 95 YoY % Change Index -5% 90 -10% Index 85 YoY % Change -15% Source: Federal Reserve 80 -20% 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 For the second consecutive quarter, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) declined on a YoY basis. PMI declined -7.9% YoY in 3Q11 and -9.5% QoQ to an average of 51.0. A PMI reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI in excess of 42.5, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy or GDP, is generally expanding; below 42.5, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 or 42.5 is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index 65 60 55 ISM Purchasing Managers Index 50 45 40 Source: Institute for 35 Supply Management 30 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 Subscribe to other Industry Research Monitors | Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas Industry Research Monitor: Truck Transportation 2 © 2011 General Electric Capital Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
  • 3. Retail Sales Another key indicator of truckload activity is Retail Sales as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. Retail trade and food services grew +8.0% YoY in 3Q11 after increasing +7.7% in 2Q11. Retail sales increased +1.1% QoQ in 3Q11 after increasing +1.2% QoQ in 2Q11. Retail Sales (Seasonally Adjusted $Bn) 400 15% 390 10% 380 Retail Sales And Food Services 5% 370 YoY % Change 0% 360 Retail & Food Services -5% YoY % Change 350 -10% 340 330 -15% Source: Source: U.S. Census Bureau 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 Other Indicators According to the Fibre Box Association (FBA), containerboard or corrugated box shipments increased +0.2% YoY in 3Q11 after declining -0.5% in 2Q11. According to the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker, import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports declined -3.0% YoY in 3Q11. They are forecasting 4Q11 volumes to increase +3.1% YoY while they forecast a slow start to 2012 with January and February declining -3.6% and -3.8% YoY, respectively. Trucking Demand D espite conflicting economic data, demand for trucking TRUCKING DEMAND HEADLINES services continues to remain positive. Increased volumes • ATA Truck Tonnage Index increased +5.5% YoY and increased +0.4% QoQ in 3Q11. and rising freight rates make way for improved company • Cass Freight Shipments Index increased financials. +7.5% YoY and increased +2.2% QoQ in 3Q11. In our 2011 GE Capital Transportation Survey, 71% of trucking carriers we surveyed expect improved business conditions in 2011. In addition, the vast majority of respondents anticipate increases in number of shipments/loads, loaded miles, average revenue per tractor and average revenue per loaded mile. Truck Tonnage Index According to the American Trucking Associations (ATA), the trucking tonnage index increased +5.5% YoY 3Q11 and increased +0.4% over 2Q11 to average seasonally adjusted rate of 114.8. In the September ATA Truck Tonnage press release, ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello states, “I continue to believe the economy will skirt another recession because truck tonnage isn’t showing signs that we are in a recession,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. “Tonnage is suggesting that we are in a weak growth period for the economy, but not a recession.” Subscribe to other Industry Research Monitors | Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas Industry Research Monitor: Truck Transportation 3 © 2011 General Electric Capital Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
  • 4. ATA Truck Tonnage Index 120 10% 5% 115 0% YoY % Change 110 Index -5% 105 -10% Index 100 -15% YoY % Change Source: American Trucking Associations 95 -20% 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 Cass Freight Index The Cass Freight Index as reported by Cass Information Systems, Inc. continues to be positive. The Shipments Index increased +7.5% YoY in 3Q11, slower than the +8.9% YoY growth seen in 2Q11 and +12.5% growth in 1Q11. The Shipments Index increased +2.2% QoQ. The Expenditures Index increased +19.9% YoY in 3Q11 but declined modestly on a sequential basis (-0.4% QoQ) after a +13.7% QoQ increase in 2Q11. This suggests a very healthy 2Q11 implied rate increase of +11.6% YoY and -2.5% QoQ. Cass Freight Index 2.6 2.3 2.0 Index 1.7 Expenditures Shipments 1.4 1.1 Source: Cass Information Systems 0.8 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 Truck and Trailer Orders H igh asset age, increased capacity utilization and improving used equipment valuations will help truck and trailer orders through 2011 and 2012. While 71% of respondents to our 2011 GE Capital Transportation survey expect improved business conditions, only 51% state they will increase the size of their company sleeper cab fleets, 26% say they will increase the size of their company day cab fleets and 55% state they will increase the size of their trailer fleet. This gap between improving business conditions and revenue metrics vs. truck orders is likely due to carriers’ sobering views on rising expenses. For 2012, their outlook is much improved with more carriers expecting to add to their fleet in every equipment category. Subscribe to other Industry Research Monitors | Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas Industry Research Monitor: Truck Transportation 4 © 2011 General Electric Capital Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
  • 5. Heavy-Duty Truck Orders U.S. Class 8 truck net truck orders continued to exhibit strength in 3Q11. Net orders increased +65.9% YoY to 45,000 compared the year ago quarter. Orders are significantly improved from the cyclical low of 17,000 orders in 1Q10 but below the high of 107,000 in 1Q06. TRUCK AND TRAILER ORDER HEADLINES The cancellation rate has increased from a low of 4.6% in January and February of this year to 7.8% in June and 11.2% in September. We will keep an eye on this number to • Heavy-duty net truck orders increased +65.9% YoY in 3Q11. Retail sales of determine whether it represents a normal, end-of-year cleaning-up of the order book or heavy-duty trucks increased +56.1% YoY real cancellations due to a change in economic outlook. in the same period. Retail sales increased +56.1% YoY in 3Q11 to 44,000 as very strong order volumes • Medium-duty net truck orders increased continue to make their way onto the road. Net orders barely outpaced retail sales so +19.1% YoY in 3Q11 with strength the backlogs increased +158.0% YoY off very low levels in 3Q10 but are down -3.5% from Class 6-7 markets offset by a slight decline in Class 5 orders. Retail sales of the prior quarter. The backlog-to-build ratio averaged 5.9 months in the quarter, down medium-duty trucks increased +43.4% from 2Q11. Build rates in August rose to the highest level since January 2007. If the YoY in the same period. maximum build rate in the last cycle is any indication, it was 30,000 trucks in October • Trailer orders increased +18.1% YoY in 2006. 3Q11. Absolute levels of inventories increased throughout the quarter, increasing +58.2% YoY in 1Q11 off historic lows in 3Q10. Inventories increased +12.9% QoQ. The inventory-to- sales ratio continues to decline from an average of 2.32 months in 1Q11 to an average of 2.09 months in 3Q11 due to improving retail sales volumes. U.S. Class 8 Net Truck Orders 60,000 300% 55,000 250% 50,000 200% YoY % Change 45,000 Net Orders 150% 40,000 100% 35,000 50% 30,000 Net Orders 0% YoY % Change 25,000 20,000 -50% Source: ACT Research 15,000 -100% 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 Medium-Duty Truck Orders Net orders of U.S. Class 5-7 trucks increased +19.1% YoY to 21,000 in 3Q11. Medium- duty net truck orders are significantly improved from the cyclical low of 7,800 orders in 2Q09 but are significantly below the cyclical high of 60,000 orders in 1Q06. Net orders increased +45.6% YoY for Class 6-7 trucks while net orders of Class 5 trucks declined -0.3% YoY. Net orders have remained relatively flat over the past 3 quarters perhaps due to companies seeing mixed results in their business and taking a wait-and-see approach to capital expenditures and asset purchases. Retail sales increased +43.4% YoY in 3Q11 to 23,000 after increasing +50.6% YoY in 2Q11. Class 5 retail sales increased +18.1% YoY in 3Q11 while retail sales in the Class 6-7 market increased +67.9% YoY. This is the first quarter since 2Q10 where net orders have not outpaced retail sales. Backlogs declined -12.4% QoQ but are +47.0% above a year ago. The backlog-to-build ratio declined slightly. Subscribe to other Industry Research Monitors | Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas Industry Research Monitor: Truck Transportation 5 © 2011 General Electric Capital Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
  • 6. Absolute levels of inventory declined -38.9% YoY in 3Q11 but increased +4.3% QoQ. On a relative basis, the inventory-to-sales ratio continues to increase from 2.5 months in 1Q11 to 3.0 months in 3Q11. U.S. Class 5-7 Net Truck Orders 40,000 200% 35,000 150% 30,000 100% 25,000 YoY % Change Net Orders 20,000 50% Net Orders 15,000 YoY % Change 0% 10,000 -50% 5,000 Source: ACT Research 0 -100% 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 Trailer Orders Trailers net orders increased +18.1% YoY to 42,000 in 3Q11. Trailer orders are significantly improved from cyclical lows of 11,000 orders in 4Q08 but are still below cyclical highs of 102,000 orders in 1Q06. 3Q11 orders represent a -16.6% decrease over 3Q11. Orders of liquid and dry tank trailers showed significant YoY growth in 3Q11, nearly doubling last year’s volumes while orders of refrigerated trailers declined -32.1% YoY in 3Q11. Dry van orders increased +20.1% YoY but declined -24.2% QoQ, the third consecutive quarter of declines. Net Trailer Orders 80,000 200% 70,000 150% 60,000 100% YoY % Change 50,000 Net Orders 40,000 50% Net Orders 30,000 YoY % Change 0% 20,000 -50% 10,000 Source: ACT Research 0 -100% 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 Factory shipments increased +65.7% YoY in 3Q11 to 58,000 after increasing +51.6% YoY in 2Q11. For the second consecutive quarter since 3Q09, net orders did not exceed shipments or build rates. Absolute backlogs increased +71.7% YoY in 3Q11 but declined -15.0% from 2Q11. The backlog-to-build ratio declined from 5.4 months in 2Q11 to 4.4 months in 3Q11 with strong build rates. The 2Q11 build rate is at its highest level since 2Q07. Absolute levels of inventory in 3Q11 increased +25.2% from a year ago but declined -5.7% from 2Q11. Subscribe to other Industry Research Monitors | Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas Industry Research Monitor: Truck Transportation 6 © 2011 General Electric Capital Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
  • 7. Costs T rucking fleets are facing higher cost pressures from the rising cost of diesel fuel and recruiting and retaining quality drivers to complying with regulatory requirements. Even though 71% of respondents to our 2011 GE Capital Transportation survey anticipate improved business conditions, the majority (57%) expect their operating rate to increase in 2011. 17% expect their operating rate to stay the same and 22% expect their operating rate to decrease. Diesel Fuel The price of on-highway diesel fuel increased +31.6% YoY in 3Q11 but declined -3.7% QoQ to an average of $3.87 per gallon. October marks the fifth consecutive month in which diesel has shown month-over-month declines. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) decreased its projection of diesel and gasoline prices. The EIA now expects diesel to increase +27.1% to an average $3.80 per gallon in 2011 and decline -1.8% to $3.73 per gallon in 2012. Diesel averaged $3.80 per gallon in October 2011. On-Highway Diesel Fuel ($/gallon) 5.00 80% 60% 4.50 40% 4.00 YoY % Change 20% Price 3.50 Price 0% YoY % Change 3.00 COST HEADLINES -20% • Average price of diesel fuel increased 2.50 -40% Source: U.S. Department of Energy, +31.6% YoY and declined -3.7% QoQ in Energy Information Administration 3Q11. The EIA expects diesel to increase 2.00 -60% 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 +27.1 % to $3.80 per gallon in 2011. Diesel averaged $3.80 per gallon in The average price of gasoline (all grades) increased +33.0% YoY in 3Q11 but declined October 2011. from 2Q11 to an average of $3.69 per gallon. October marks the fifth consecutive month • Average new heavy-duty truck prices of sequential declines. The EIA expects gasoline to increase +26.6% to $3.52 per gallon increased +2.9% YoY at Rush Enterprises in 2011 and decline -2.6% to $3.43 in 2012. Regular gasoline averaged $3.51 per gallon • Average new medium-duty truck prices in October 2011. decreased -1.2% YoY at Rush Enterprises • Average used truck prices increased In our 2011 GE Capital Transportation Survey, 96% of carriers surveyed expected the +6.4% at Rush Enterprises average price of diesel fuel to increase in 2011. In addition, 67% of carriers cited the • In 3Q11, truck transportation employment rising cost of diesel fuel to be one of the top 3 challenges for their company in 2011. increased by 35,300 persons or +2.8% YoY. Subscribe to other Industry Research Monitors | Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas Industry Research Monitor: Truck Transportation 7 © 2011 General Electric Capital Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
  • 8. Equipment, Parts, Supplies and Maintenance In their 3Q11 earning release, Rush Enterprises number of new heavy-duty truck sold increased +92.7% YoY in 3Q11 with an average selling price of $131,300, up 2.9% YoY and up +3.5% from 2Q10. The number of new medium duty trucks sold increased +119.5% YoY with and average selling price of $69,587, a -1.2% decrease from a year ago and -1.8% from 2Q10. The number of used vehicles sold increased +30.1% YoY in 3Q11 with average selling price of $44,274, up 6.4% from a year ago and +8% from 2Q10. In their second quarter earnings release, W. M. “Rusty” Rush, President and Chief Executive Officer for Rush Enterprises, Inc stated, “ In its third quarter earning press release, Rush Enterprises stated: “The Company expects U.S. Class 8 retail sales will remain on pace to reach approximately 165,000 to 170,000 units by year end in 2011, which remains below historical replacement levels. Industry experts currently forecast Class 8 U.S. retail sales to be 214,000 units for 2012. Medium-duty commercial vehicle sales continued to be negatively impacted by supply issues faced by several medium- duty truck manufacturers, but the Company expects medium-duty commercial vehicle sales to increase before the end of the year as these supply issues are resolved. “ In our 2011 GE Capital Transportation Survey, 62% of carriers expect the cost of maintenance and service to increase in 2011. 12% anticipate their maintenance and service costs will stay the same while 26% of carriers expect it to decrease. In addition, 41% of carriers cite rising equipment, parts and maintenance costs as one of the top 3 challenges for their business in 2011. As a result of an aging fleet and increased maintenance intervals, carriers may experience increased maintenance costs in 2011. The greatest impact to overall costs will likely come from the increased frequency of repairs as a direct result of deferred vehicle replacement. Older fleets will likely experience larger effects. In addition, there may be spike in unscheduled, higher-cost maintenance which impacts not only maintenance dollars but also increases driver downtime. Employment According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the trucking industry employed 35,300 more people in September 2011 than it did a year ago. On a seasonally adjusted basis, truck transportation employment increased +2.8% YoY in 3Q11 after increasing +3.1% YoY in 2Q11. Sequentially, employment increased +0.3% (or 4,300 jobs) on a seasonally adjusted basis. This marks the sixth consecutive quarter that truck transportation has seen QoQ seasonally adjusted employment gains. Subscribe to other Industry Research Monitors | Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas Industry Research Monitor: Truck Transportation 8 © 2011 General Electric Capital Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
  • 9. Truck Transportation Employment (seasonally adjusted) 1,450 4% 2% 1,400 0% -2% 1,350 YoY % Change Employment -4% 1,300 Employment -6% YoY % Change -8% 1,250 -10% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 1,200 -12% 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 In our 2011 GE Capital Transportation Survey, 74% of carriers cite recruiting and hiring quality drivers to be one of the top 3 challenges for their company in 2011. Additionally, 71% of carriers anticipate increases in salaries, wages and benefit expense. Recent Industry News and Developments Recent Industry News • The U.S. and Mexico formalized a cross-border trucking program that will end more than $2 billion of tariffs on exported U.S. goods and open up U.S. roadways to approved Mexican trucks. According to the Dept. of Transportation, the agreement calls for Mexican trucks to comply with all Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and they must utilize electronic monitoring systems to track hours-of-service compliance. DOT will also review driving records and require drug testing of all drivers, to be analyzed by the Dept. of Health and Human Services at approved U.S. labs. Mexican drivers will also have to prove “their ability to understand the English language and U.S. traffic signs.” U.S. carriers will receive reciprocal authority to operate in Mexico. • C.R. England has made some major changes in senior management following Dan England’s appointment as chairman of the American Trucking Associations. Effectively immediately, Dan England, Chairman and President, will assume the title of Chairman and Dean England, Chief Executive Officer, will assume the title of President. Wayne Cederholm, Chief Operating Officer, will become Chief Executive Officer and Chad England, formerly President, England North America, will assume the title of Chief Operating Officer. • Navistar is officially closing its Chatham, Ontario truck manufacturing facility. The plant has been idle since June 2009. • Congress voted to re-extend the current highway program through March 2012. • Shareholders of YRC Worldwide voted in favor of is restructuring – an internal merger agreement to combine YRC Worldwide and its recently created YRC Merger Sub subsidiary. YRC Worldwide’s banking group will now own about 72.5% of the Company’s stock, its Teamsters employees about 25% and remaining shareholders about 2.5%. Subscribe to other Industry Research Monitors | Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas Industry Research Monitor: Truck Transportation 9 © 2011 General Electric Capital Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
  • 10. • Congress unveiled new fuel efficiency rules from the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Combination tractors (semi-trucks) will be required to achieve up to approximately 20% reduction in fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by model year 2018. Heavy-duty pick- up trucks and vans will be required to achieve up to approximately 15% reduction in fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by model year 2018 with separate standards for gasoline and diesel engines. Vocational vehicles (delivery trucks, buses and refuse trucks) will be required to achieve up to approximately 100% reduction in fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by model year 2018. • Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood will not be seeking a second term at that post. He said he would step down at the end of President Obama’s current term in 2012. The former Republican congressman from Illinois also said he would not run for public office again. He served in Congress for 14 years before joining Obama’s cabinet. He said he wanted to enter the private sector after leaving the administration and gave no further reason for his departure. • Russell Gerdin, the son of a truck driver who founded Heartland Express died October 15. He was 70 years old. Gerdin founded Heartland Express in 1978, shortly before federal deregulation redrew the map of the trucking industry. Deregulation created the irregular route, long-haul truckload carrier, and Heartland Express expanded rapidly in the 1980s, going public as early as 1986. Gerdin took a leave of absence in January due to poor health. His son Michael Gerdin was named president, CEO and chairman. (5) Revenue includes truck segment revenue. Net Income includes truck segment operating income. Selected Commentary Carriers • In their fiscal first quarter earnings release, Chairman and CEO Steve Russell commentedon the results of the September 2011 quarter: “Our average rate per loaded mile improved to $1.53, up approximately six cents per mile from the September 2010 quarter, or 3.7%. Seated count declined about six percent, related to the more challenging driver shortage in the industry.” In addition, “On October 11, 2011, we filed a 13D indicating that Celadon has acquired 6.3% of the stock of USA Truck Inc. In USA Truck’s September 2011 quarter release, they indicated that their Board of Directors has unanimously decided to decline a meeting with us. At Celadon’s Board of Directors meeting earlier this week, we were quite disappointed with their reaction, and we decided to consider alternative actions.” • Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Kevin P. Knight, offered the following comments in the company’s third quarter earnings press release: “We improved our revenue per tractor excluding fuel surcharge by 4.6%, as a result of a 2.3% increase in miles per tractor and a 2.2% increase in revenue per total mile (not including fuel surcharge), as compared to the third quarter last year.“ Subscribe to other Industry Research Monitors | Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas Industry Research Monitor: Truck Transportation 10 © 2011 General Electric Capital Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
  • 11. • In USA Truck’s third quarter earnings release, Cliff Beckham, President and CEO, made the following statements: “Our business environment was softer than in the second quarter. We felt a modest step-down in overall freight demand in our markets, which we attribute to slower growth in the U.S. economy. In addition, we began phasing out service on two major accounts, one due to the end of a project and one due to inadequate pricing. In a softer overall freight market, we had fewer opportunities to replace all of this business with high-quality freight. Industry-wide, we believe freight demand and trucking capacity are in relative equilibrium, but the spot market is less robust than during the second quarter. This contributed to a reduction in overall miles and an increase in our percentage of non-revenue miles. For the quarter, in our Trucking operations, tractor utilization decreased 13.2% and our empty mile factor increased approximately 200 basis points, to 12.4%, compared with the third quarter of 2010. Base Trucking revenue per mile was a positive, however, rising approximately 7.2% compared with the third quarter of 2010. From a cost perspective, driver wages, net fuel cost, equipment repairs, and insurance and claims all increased on a per mile basis. These increases more than offset our increase in Trucking revenue per mile. In addition, the decrease in tractor utilization less effectively covered our fixed costs, and increased empty miles percentage hurt fuel surcharge recovery as well as overall base revenue per mile.” • In their 3Q11 earnings release, Werner Enterprises stated, “We continue to believe that generally favorable truckload freight trends are caused to a greater degree by supply side constraints limiting truckload capacity, as opposed to demand generated by economic activity. ” OEM • In their third quarter interim report, Daimler Trucks showed a +74.4% YoY increase in U.S. unit sales. • PACCAR executive vice president, Dan Sobic stated in the company’s third quarter earnings press release, Class 8 industry retail sales in the U.S. and Canada are expected to be in the range of 185,000-200,000 vehicles in 2011. Our customers are benefiting from higher freight tonnage and improved freight rates,” said Dan Sobic, PACCAR executive vice president. “For the first nine months of 2011, PACCAR achieved a record Class 8 retail market share in the U.S. and Canada of 27.7 percent as customers benefited from Kenworth and Peterbilt vehicles’ low operating cost advantage. Estimates for industry Class 8 retail sales in 2012 are in the range of 205,000-230,000 units, driven primarily by ongoing replacement of the aging fleet. Annual replacement demand for the U.S. and Canadian truck market is approximately 225,000 units,” added Sobic. • At Volvo, net sales in North America increased +29.1% YoY in 3Q11. Replacement demand continues to be the primary driver of new truck sales, particularly highway tractors. Activity in the refuse sector has remained steady. Ongoing weakness in construction has been partially offset by demand for heavy-duty trucks vehicles in energy-related enterprises. In 2011, the North American market for heavy-duty trucks is expected to reach a level of about 210,000 trucks, (previous estimate: 230,000-240,000). For 2012 the total market is expected to grow by about 20%. • Wabash National’s Dick Giromini, President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, “Never before has our industry experienced such a rapid recovery in demand as we have seen over the past 12 to 18 months.” New trailer shipments of 11,400 increased 111% YoY. “Increases in commodity and component costs coupled with the inherent challenges associated with the capacity ramp-up to support the increased demand impacted our gross margin for the quarter.” Subscribe to other Industry Research Monitors | Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas Industry Research Monitor: Truck Transportation 11 © 2011 General Electric Capital Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
  • 12. 3Q11 Earnings Summary YoY % Change Revenue Operating ex Fuel Net Rate Revenue Surcharge Income TL Carriers Celadon Group 93.7 0.8% -6.0% 21.5% Heartland Express (1) 81.0 4.2% N.A. -15.8% J.B. Hunt 89.9 18.8% 10.8% 31.6% Knight Transportation 87.8 18.7% 13.2% 0.3% Landstar System 92.8 9.8% N.A. 40.0% Patriot Transportation Holding (2) 90.7 13.5% N.A. -8.5% Quality Distribution (1) 92.3 9.5% 5.1% N.M. USA Truck (1) 104.5 9.6% 1.9% N.M. Werner Enterprises 90.2 10.0% 0.7% 22.4% LTL Carriers Arkansas Best 95.9 14.7% N.A. N.M. Old Dominion Freight Line 86.2 24.9% N.A. 58.4% Saia 96.4 14.3% N.A. 93.5% YRC Worldwide 101.9 12.3% N.A. N.M. Engine, Truck & Trailer OEMs Units Sold Revenue Net Income Cummins 47.3% 36.0% -10.5% Daimler Trucks 74.4% 18.4% 11.9% Navistar (3) 40.1% 10.4% N.M. PACCAR (4) 82.1% 73.3% 134.9% Volvo (5) 24.1% 15.9% 46.7% Wabash National 1000% 96.9% N.M. N.A. = Not Available N.M. = Not Material (1) Operating rate and net income excludes net gain on the disposal of revenue equipment (2) Revenue and operating rate includes transportation segment only. (3) For the quarter ended April 30. Revenue includes sales of manufactured products and excludes finance revenues. (4) Revenue includes truck and other revenue and excludes financial services. Subscribe to other Industry Research Monitors | Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas Industry Research Monitor: Truck Transportation 12 © 2011 General Electric Capital Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
  • 13. New and used equipment investments can = tax-savings opportunities Take advantage of 100% bonus For used equipment: Section 179 benefits depreciation for new equipment When purchasing used equipment, you may be able to For 2011, the purchaser of new equipment may be utilize the Section 179 expense allowance, which has able to expense up to 100% of the new capital equip- risen to $500,000. Contact your equipment dealer ment expenditure. This tax-savings opportunity is for more information. available throughout the 2011 tax year. Used equipment investment $750,000 What this means With Section 179 If your business operates as a sole proprietorship, part- Section 179 Allowance* $500,000 nership or corporation, this makes equipment purchases 20% first year depreciation $50,000 more affordable. Now is the time to take advantage of Potential tax deduction $550,000 big tax benefits, acquire the equipment you need and Potential 1st year savings** $192,500 put it to work for your business today. Without Section 179 New equipment investment $750,000 Section 179 Allowance --- 20% first year depreciation $150,000 100% Bonus Depreciation* $750,000 Potential tax deduction $150,000 Potential tax deduction $750,000 Potential 1st year savings** $52,500 Potential 1st year savings $262,500 Section 179 savings difference $140,000 After-tax equipment cost $487,500 Take advantage with GE Capital GE Capital has dedicated resources to help you respond quickly and effectively to this remarkable tax-saving opportunity! Contact your local dealership to get started. *Section 179: Allows taxpayers to deduct the cost of qualifying equipment up to $500,000, and includes “off the shelf” software purchases, rather than depreciating the cost over a period of several years. For any remaining amount above the $500,000 allowance, you are entitled to take the first year depreciation. The maximum dollar amount of equipment you can purchase in 2011 is $2,000,000 before the deduction is reduced dollar for dollar for purchases in excess of $2,000,000. For used property, the 20% First Year Depreciation can be taken after Section 179 deduction in the first year the equipment is placed in service assuming MACRS, 5-year life, 200% declining balance, or half-year convention. This brochure is provided for general reference only, contains a partial overview of certain sections of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended (the “Code”), and is not intended to be a detailed discussion of the depreciation rules or any other provision(s) of the Code. Nothing herein constitutes any tax, accounting or legal advice, and it cannot be used or relied upon to avoid any penalties that may be imposed under U.S. Federal tax laws. You should consult your own independent tax , accounting and/or legal advisors for advice that is based upon your particular circumstances. Nothing herein constitutes a proposal or commitment for any particular transaction. Any such transaction would be subject to credit and other relevant approvals at GE and would be subject to the execution of documentation in form and substance satisfactory to GE. INDUSTRY RESEARCH TEAM Serena Tse Scott Cohen Jeff Englander Kimberly Savilonis Loren Trotta Michael Zimm, CFA 646-428-7249 646-428-7242 646-428-7135 480-565-6289 203-229-1877 646-428-7015 serena.tse@ge.com scott.cohen@ge.com jeffrey.englander@ge.com kimberly.savilonis@ loren.trotta@ge.com michael.zimm@ge.com Construction Consumer & Leisure Healthcare ge.com Food, Beverage & Technology & Business Transportation Products Industrial Products & Agribusiness Services Media, Communications & Services Financial Services Aerospace & Defense Richard Aldrich, CFA Entertainment 646-428-7365 richard.aldrich@ge.com Chemicals & Plastics Metals & Mining Auto & Auto Parts Disclaimer: Although General Electric Capital Corporation (“GE”) believes that the information contained in this newsletter has been obtained from and is based upon sources GE believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. GE makes no representation or warranties of any kind whatsoever in respect of such information. GE accepts no liability of any kind for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this newsletter. This newsletter is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of your independent judgment or legal advice. Subscribe to other Industry Research Monitors | Explore Financing Solutions at www.gecapital.com/americas Industry Research Monitor: Truck Transportation 13 © 2011 General Electric Capital Corporation. All Rights Reserved.