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A Framework for Understanding
     the Economics of Global Poverty



                       Jim Donahue
                       15th May 2008
                     jimdonahue7@yahoo.co.uk



© 2008 Jim Donahue
Overview
1.   Nearly half of the world still lives in poverty

2.   Some countries have moved from being poor to rich

3.   Africa continues to lag behind

4.   Mobile telephony is a key enabler for growth in poor countries

5.   There is an ongoing debate about what needs to be done to fight
     extreme poverty


Appendices:

A.   Case Study of Malawi: Can it move from poverty to prosperity?

B.   Example lifestyles at different levels of economic development
                                                                       2
1. Nearly half of the world still lives in poverty




                                                     3
How are rich and poor countries defined?
          How can poor countries become rich?




GNI/Capita (PPP 2004)
 - >$20,000
  - $10,000 - $20,000
  - $5,000 -$10,000
  - <$5,000

 Source: World Bank Development Indicators - GNI/capita, PPP – 2004
Most of the world lives in developing countries and nearly
half earn less than $2 per day
                                                Number of Countries
                                                                      Developing Countries
                         80                                                                    73
                                    Developed Countries
                         70
                         60
                                                                          41
                         50
                         40            33                   25
                         30
                         20
                         10
                          0
                                High Income Upper Middle Lower Middle Low Income (<
                               (> $20,000 US) (10-$20,000) Income (5-    $5,000)
                                                            $10,000)

                                                            Population
                    3,000,000,000
                                                                                           2.7 B
                                                                       2.2 B
                    2,500,000,000
                                                                                                               International
                    2,000,000,000                                                                  3 Billion      Poverty
                                                                                                   <$2/day         Lines:
                    1,500,000,000
                                                                               1 Billion
                                            1B
                    1,000,000,000                                              <$1/day

                      500,000,000                            .2 B
                                   0
                                        High Income Upper Middle Lower Middle Low Income (<
                                                                                                                       5
                                       (> $20,000 US) (10-$20,000) (5-$10,000)   $5,000)
 Source: World Bank Development Indicators - GNI/capita, PPP – 2004
Extreme poverty has been reduced in recent years, but
nearly half of the world still lives in poverty

                         1981                                                     2004

                                                                                       19% less
                                                                                         than
                                    40% less
               33%
                                                                                        $1/day
                                      than                                  52%
          Greater
                                     $1/day
        than $2/ day                                                       Greater
                                                                                        Additional
                                                                         than $2/day
                                                                                         29% on
                   Additional
                                                                                        less than
                    27% on
                                                                                          $2/day
                   less than
                     $2/day



Total Population: 4.5 Billion                                        Total Population: 6.4 Billion
Less than $1/day 1.5 Billion                                         Less than $1/day: 1.0 Billion
Less than $2/day: 3.0 Billion                                        Less than $2/day: 3.0 Billion
                                                                                                     6
 Source: World Bank Development Indicators - % Poverty 1981 - 2004
2. Some countries are moving from being poor to
   rich




                                                  7
There of numerous examples of countries moving from
     being poor to rich
                                                                        Today’s Emerging
                      Europe                Japan and the
                                                                            Markets
                                             Asian Tigers
                                                                         (% growth 2004-05)
                             Ireland 2005
                                            Japan 2005
                               ($34,720)
                                             ($31,410)
                         Spain2005                       Taiwan 2005
                          ($25,820)                        (25,000)
               Greece 2005                     S. Korea, 2005             Estonia– 9.8%
                ($23,620)                         ($21,850)
                                                                          Argentina – 9.2%
                                                                          S. Africa – 4.9%
                                                                          Malaysia – 5.9%


                                                                           Turkey – 7.4%
                         Spain   Ireland
                         2000                                              Venezuela – 9.3%
                                   1988
                                                                           China – 10.2%
                                            Japan
                                             1950                          Philippines – 5.0%
                Greece                                                     Indonesia – 5.6%
                                                               Taiwan
                 1950                                           1960       India – 9.2%
                                                                           Angola – 20.6%
                                                    S. Korea
                                                      1970
                                                                                                8
Source: World Bank Development Indicators
Europe   GNI per Capita/
 Years to Double Size of the Economy             Growth Rate
                                                    (PPP 2005 US$)
Developed                                         (%Growth 2004-05)
Countries
                                                UK- $32,690 (1.8%)
              Newly Emerging Markets
                                                France - $30,540 (1.2%)
                                                Germany -$29,210 (1.0%)
                                                Italy -$28,840 (0.0%)
                                                Spain -$25,820 (3.4%)


                                                Czech –$20,140 (6.1%)
                                                Hungary-$16,940 (4.1%)
                                                Estonia -$15,420 (9.8%)
                                                Poland -$13,490 (3.4%)


                                                Russia -$10,640 (6.4%)
                                                Romania-$8,940 (4.1%)
                                                Turkey - $8,420 (7.4%)
                                                Ukraine-$6,720 (2.6%)




                                                 Source: World Bank 9
                                                 Development Indicators
Key steps to poverty reduction through growth:
1. Create a good investment climate
2. Create formal economy jobs
3. Empower the poor to participate in the economy

   1. Key private sector
                                          2. Private
   investment decision factors:                             Informal/
                                       investment and      Sustenance
                                      export industries     Economy
                                       create jobs and
                                        help grow the
   Infrastructure,                    formal economy
   Health, Education
                                                               Private
                                                               Sector
    Governance
                                                               Formal
                                                              Economy
       Indirect factors influencing
         investment decisions:


                                          3. Health and
                                        education levels
      People/Culture
                                       empower the poor
                                          to move into
                                                                         10
                                        formal economy
        Geography
                                              jobs
Six types of underlying factors help to explain a
country’s ability to attract investment and grow
                                                                                Economic Output
                                                                           Gross National Income (GNI)
                                                     Education
      Infrastructure           Health                                       Economy                     Poverty
 • Paved Roads %                                • Male Literacy
                         • Life expectancy
                                                                                      % Agriculture
 • Telecoms                                     • Female Literacy
                         • Child Mortality
                                                                                                      > $2      <1$
                                                                         % Services
 • Internet/PC                                  • Primary
                         • Immunisation
 • Reliable power                               • Secondary
                         • AIDS%
                                                                                                       Between $1
                                                                              % Industry
                                                                                                       and $2
 • Water/ Sanitation                            • Tertiary
                         • Tuberculosis %

                            Governance
                                                                                                  Economic
                                      • Political Stability
 • Governance Rating: x%
                                      • Control of Corruption                                     Performance
 • Competitiveness Index: x/125       • Democracy/People’s Voice
                                      • Rule of Law
                                                                                                GNI per capita
 • Ease of Doing Business: x/175      • Gov’t/Regulatory Effectiveness
                              People
                                                                           Growth (1990-2003)                       %
      • Population growth     • Ethnic Groups/ Cultural Values
                                                                           Investment (% GDP)                       %
      • Net Migration         • Population age profile
                            Geography                                      Exports (% GDP)                          %
   • Natural resource               • Climate
                                                                           Imports (% GDP)                          %
   • Access to trade routes         • Arable Land
                                                                           Unemployment (00-05)                     %
   • Natural Disasters              • Net energy imports
                                                                           Inflation (Avg. 1990-03)                 %
 11
France
 United Kingdom
       Economic Output                               Economic Output
      GNI: $2.273 trillion (2005)                   GNI: $2.169 trillion (2005)
      Population: 60 million (2005)                 Population: 61 million (2005)


                                                   Economy                 Poverty
  Economy                   Poverty
     Services: 72%                                  Services: 73%
        Agriculture 1%                                Agriculture 3%

    Industry: 27%                                          Industry: 24%
                                     > $2                                       > $2



                                                                       Economic
                         Economic
                                                                       Performance
                         Performance
                         GNI/capita, PPP:                              GNI/capita, PPP:
                         $32,690 (2005)                                $30,540 (2005)

    Growth (Avg. 1990-03)                   2.7%   Growth (Avg. 1990-03)             1.9%
    Investment (% GDP)                      16%    Investment (% GDP)                19%
    Exports (% GDP)                         25%    Exports (% GDP)                   26%
    Imports (% GDP)                         28%    Imports (% GDP)                   25%
    Unemployment (00-05)                    4.6%   Unemployment (00-05)              9.9%
                                                                                            12
    Inflation (Avg. 1990-03)                2.7%   Inflation (Avg. 1990-03)          1.5%
Source: World Bank Development Indicators
United Kingdom                                                                         France
          (GNI/Capita, PPP $32,690)                                                 (GNI/Capita, PPP $30,540)

                                                  Education                                                               Education
  Infrastructure                                                           Infrastructure
                            Health                                                                   Health
• Paved Roads                                                           • Paved Roads         • Life expect: 79     • M Literacy: 99%
                                           • M Literacy: 99%
                      • Life expect: 78
100%                                                                    100%
                                                                                              • Child Mort: 0.5% • F Literacy: 99%
                      • Child Mort: 0.6% • F Literacy: 99%
• Mob Tel :112%                                                         • Mob Tel: 80%
                                                                                              • Immun: 86%          • Primary: 99%
                                           • Primary: 99%
                      • Immun: 80%
• Internet: 42.3%                                                       • Internet :36.5%
                                                                                              • AIDS: 0.4%          • Secondary: 93%
                                           • Secondary: 95%
                      • AIDS: 0.2%
• Reliable power                                                        • Reliable power
                                                                                              • TB: 0.12%           • Tertiary: 54%
                                           • Tertiary: 64%
                      • TB: 0.12%
• Water/ Sanitation                                                     • Water/ Sanitation
                        Governance                                                              Governance
                                      • Political Stability                                              • Political Stability
• Governance Rating: 90%                                                • Governance Rating: 89%
                                      • Control of Corruption                                            • Control of Corruption
• Competitiveness Index:10/125                                          • Competitiveness Index:18/125
                                      • Democracy/Voice                                                  • Democracy/Voice
                                      • Rule of Law                                                      • Rule of Law
• Ease of Doing Business: 6/175                                         • Ease of Doing Business: 35/175 • Gov’t/Reg Effect’ness
                                      • Gov’t/Reg Effect’ness
                           People                                                                   People
                                                                          • Births per woman: 1.9 • Ethnic Groups/ Culture
 • Births per woman: 1.7 • Ethnic Groups/ Culture
                                                                          • Net migration: + .1%       • Population age 0-14: 18.6%
 • Net migration: +.16%       • Population age 0-14: 18.2%
                         Geography                                                               Geography
  • Natural Resources           • Temperate/ Continental                  • Natural Resources            • Temperate/ Continental
  • Access to trade routes      • Arable Land                             • Access to trade routes       • Arable Land
  • Natural Disasters           • Net Energy imports                      • Natural Disasters            • Net Energy imports
                                                                                                                                      13
 Sources: World Bank Development Indicators 2005, WEF Global Competitiveness Rankings 2006, World Bank Governance Index-2005, UN Population
 Division : Net Migration 1995-2000/Births per woman 2004, Koppen Climate Classification, ITU Mob/Internet Ranking 2005
Asia
    Millions are living in poverty…..
    India (2004)                 China (2004)
                                                                        GNI per Capita/
                                              <1$
                                                                         Growth Rate
    > $2       <1$                               Between                    (PPP 2005 US$)
                                     > $2                                 (%Growth 2004-05)
                                                 $1 and $2
   Between
                                                                      Hong Kong-$34,670 (7.3%)
   $1 and $2
                                                                      Japan -$31,410 (2.6%)
                                                                      Taiwan - $25,400 (5.0%)
               ….but it is improving
                                                                      S. Korea-$21,850 (4.0%)
                           India                China
Extreme Poverty         70 million          400 million
reduction since 1980    fewer               fewer



                                                                      Malaysia - $10,320 (5.2%)
                                                                      Thailand - $8,440 (4.5%)
                                                                      China - $6,600 (10.2%)


                                                                      Philippines - $5,300 (5.0%)
                                                                      Indonesia - $3,720 (5.6%)
                                                                      India - $3,460 (9.2%)
                                                                      Vietnam - $3,010 (8.4%)


                                                                                              14
                                                                    Source: World Bank
                                                                    Development Indicators
China                                                              India
              Economic Output                                                      Economic Output
         GNI: $2.3 trillion (2005)                                            GNI: $804 billion (2005)
         Population: 1.3 billion (2005)                                       Population: 1.1 billion (2005)
                                                                       Economy                        Poverty
      Economy                        Poverty
                                            <1$                                 Agriculture 22%
  Services: 33%                                                                                      > $2
                  Agriculture 15%                                                                                <1$
                                                  Between
                                    > $2                      Services: 51%
                                                  $1 and $2
                                                                                  Industry: 27%      Between
        Industry: 52%
                                                                                                     $1 and $2



                           Economic                                                           Economic
                           Performance                                                        Performance
                           GNI/capita, PPP:                                                   GNI/capita, PPP:
                            $6,600 (2005)                                                      $3,640 (2005)
     Growth (Avg. 1990-03)                    10.3%                  Growth (Avg. 1990-03)             5.9% (9.2)
     Investment (% GDP)                           44%                Investment (% GDP)                     24%
     Exports (% GDP)                              34%                Exports (% GDP)                        14%
     Imports (% GDP)                              32%                Imports (% GDP)                        16%
     Unemployment (00-05)                         4.2%               Unemployment (00-05)                   5.0%
     Inflation (Avg, 1990-03)                     4.9%               Inflation (Avg, 1990-03)               6.8%
                                                                                                                       15
Source: World Bank Development Indicators
China                                                                   India
            (GNI/Capita, PPP $6,600)                                                (GNI/Capita, PPP $3,460)

                                                   Education                                                                 Education
   Infrastructure                                                            Infrastructure
                              Health                                                                    Health
• Roads ND                                                                • Roads 57%
                                             • M. Literacy: 98%
                        • Life expect: 71                                                        • Life expect: 68     • M. Literacy: 95%
• Mob Tel: 30%                                                            • Mob Tel 8%
                        • Child Mort: 3.7% • F. Literacy: ND                                     • Child Mort: 8.7% • F. Literacy: 81%
• Internet: 6.3%                                                          • Internet: 1.7%
                                             • Primary: 98%
                        • Immunis: 86%                                                           • Immun: 67%          • Primary: 95%
• Reliable power                                                          • Reliable power
                                             • Secondary: 70%
                        • AIDS: 0.4%                                                             • AIDS: 0.9%          • Secondary: 79%
• Water/ Sanitation • TB: 0.12%                                           • Water/ Sanitation • TB: 0.26%
                                             • Tertiary: 15%                                                           • Tertiary: 28%

                         Governance                                                                Governance
                                 • Political Stability                                                      • Political Stability
• Governance Rating: 38%                                                  • Governance Rating: 43%
                                 • Control of Corruption                                                    • Control of Corruption
• Competitiveness Index:54/125                                            • Competitiveness Index:43/125
                                 • Democracy/Voice                                                          • Democracy/Voice
                                 • Rule of Law                                                              • Rule of Law
• Ease of Doing Business: 93/175 • Gov’t/Reg Effect’ness                  • Ease of Doing Business: 134/175 • Gov’t/Reg Effect’ness
                              People                                                                   People
 • Births per woman:1.7 • Ethnic Groups/ Culture                           • Births per woman 3.1 • Ethnic Groups/ Culture
 • Net Migration: -.03% • Population age 0-14: 23.6%                       • Net Migration: -.03%      • Population age 0-14: 32.4%

                             Geography                                                              Geography
                                                                            • Natural Resources
  • Natural Resources          • Temperate/ Continental                                                  • Tropical, Temperate, Dry
  • Access to trade routes                                                  • Access to trade routes • Arable Land
                               • Arable Land
  • Natural Disasters                                                       • Natural Disasters
                               • Net Energy imports                                                      • Net Energy imports

  Sources: World Bank Development Indicators 2005, WEF Global Competitiveness Rankings 2006, World Bank Governance Index-2005, UN Population
  Division : Net Migration 1995-2000/Births per woman 2004, Koppen Climate Classification, ITU Mob/Internet Ranking 2005             16
India is struggling to improve its poor infrastructure
in an effort to improve its capacity to grow




                                                  17
3. Africa continues to lag behind




                                    18
Sub-Saharan Africa is not on track to meet the
 UN Millennium Development Goals by 2015
                   TARGET Halve, between
Goal 1:
                   1990 and 2015, the
Eradicate          proportion of people whose    √ - goal achieved
Extreme Poverty    income is less than $1 a
                                                 √ - on-track
and Hunger                                           on-
                   day

                                                 x – not on-track
                                                         on-

                   TARGET Ensure that, by
Goal 2: Achieve
                   2015, all children will be    √ - goal achieved
Universal          able to complete a full
                                                 √ - on-track
Education                                            on-
                   course of primary schooling
                                                 √ - good progress

                   TARGET Reduce by two
Goal 4:
                   thirds, between 1990 and
Reduce Child       2015, the under-five
Mortality          mortality rate

                   TARGET Have halted by
Goal 6:
                   2015 and begun to reverse
Combat HIV/AIDS,
                   the spread of HIV/AIDS
Malaria &
Other Diseases
                                                                     19
30 out of 48 African countries have GNI/capita less than
$2,000 and are not well integrated into the global economy

                                                  TUNISIA
                       MOROCCO



                                       ALGERIA           LIBYA
         WESTERN
                                                                          EGYPT
         SAHARA

                                                                                             Red
                                                                                             Sea
                 MAURITANIA
                                               NIGER
                                MALI
       SENEGAL                                              CHAD
                                                                         SUDAN – 5%
        THE
        GAMBIA                                                                                      DJIBOUTI
                              BURKINA
        GUINEA     GUINEA                      NIGERIA
                                       BENIN
        BISSAU
                                                     CENTRAL                             ETHIOPIA
            SIERRA               TOGO
                                                     AFRICAN
            LEONE
                                                     REPUBLIC
                LIBERIA                    CAMEROON
                       IVORY GHANA                                                                    SOMALIA
                                                                                  UGANDA
                                                     Democratic Rep
                       COAST 51% EQUATORIAL
                                                       of Congo
                         7%                                                             KENYA
                                 GUINEA
                                           GABON CONGO     RWANDA
                                                                       BURUNDI
                                                                                  TANZANIA


                                                                               MALAWI
            GNI/Capita, PPP                              ANGOLA
             ->$20,000                                                ZAMBIA
                                                                                        MOZAMBIQUE
              - $10 – 20,000                                                                         MADAGASCAR
                                                                          ZIMBABWE
                                                         NAMIBIA
              - $5-10,000                                          BOTSWANA

              - $2 – 5,000
                                                                                   SWAZILAND
                                                                        LESOTHO
              - < $2,000
                                                                   SOUTH
                                                                                                                  20
                                                                   AFRICA

         Source: World Bank Development Indicators - 2005
Paul Collier proposes a model of four traps to explain why
 some countries are unable to grow out of poverty


    The Conflict Trap                    The Natural                       Landlocked with           Bad Governance
                                        Resource Trap                      bad Neighbours

  Current Conflicts:             • Nigeria – Oil                          • Malawi                  • Zimbabwe
  • Somalia                      • Zambia – Copper                        • Central African Republic • Somalia
  • Cote d’Ivoire                • Botswana – Diamonds                    • Burkina Faso            • Chad/Sudan
  • Chad
                                 • Sierra Leone – Diamonds • Rwanda/ Burundi                        • Nigeria
  • Sudan
                                 • DRC – Diamonds, etc                    • Uganda                  • Angola
  Recent Conflicts:
                                 • Chad – Oil                             • Chad                    • DRC
  • DRC
                                 • Angola – Oil, Diamonds                                           • Ivory Coast
  • Congo Republic
  • Liberia
  • Sierra Leone

                                          Globalisation reinforces poverty for many poor countries

                    • Wealth of global investments opportunities highlights high risk of poorest countries for
                    both foreign and local investors
                    • Even more difficult to compete against other Asian competitors such as India and China
                                                                                                                      21
                    • Increased emigration opportunities intensifies ‘brain drain’ of limited pool talent
Source: The Bottom Billion, Paul Collier, Oxford University Press, 2007
Malawi’s economy reflects challenges typical of
 many African countries           Economic Output
                                                                                                         GNI: $2.1 billion (2005)
                                                                                                         Population: 13 million(2005)
                                                            Education
      Infrastructure               Health
                                                                                                       Economy                            Poverty
• Paved Roads             • Life expect: 37  • M. Literacy: 76%
18.5%
                          • Child Mort: 17.8%• F. Literacy: 49%
                                                                                                       Agriculture 38%
• Mobile Tel: 3.3%
                                                                                                                                               <1$
                                                                                                                                   > $2
                          • Immun: 77%              • Primary: 71%
• Internet: 0.3%
                          • AIDS: 14.2%             • Secondary: 29%                                               Industry: 15%
• Reliable power
                                                                                                   Services: 49%                             Between
                          • TB: 0.44%               • Tertiary: 0.4%
                                                                                                                                             $1 and $2
• Water/Sanitation
                              Governance
                                  • Political Stability
 •Governance Rating: 31%
                                                                                                                         Economic
                                  • Control of Corruption
 •Competitiveness Index:117/125 • Democracy/Voice
                                                                                                                         Performance
                                  • Rule of Law
 •Ease of Doing Business: 110/175 • Gov’t/Reg Effect’ness
                                                                                                                         GNI/capita, PPP:
                                  People
                                                                                                                           $650 (2005)
     • Births per woman: 6.1 • Ethnic Groups/ Religion
                                                                                                    Growth (Avg. 1990-03)                   3.0%
     • Net Migration: -.08%         • Population age 0-14: 45%
                               Geography                                                            Investment (% GDP)                       8%
                                                                                                    Exports (% GDP)                         27%
     • Natural Resources             • Tropical wet and dry
     • Landlocked                    • Arable Land                                                  Imports (% GDP)                         41%
                                                                                                                                                22
     • Natural Disasters             • Net Energy imports
                                                                                                    Unemployment                           no data
        Sources: World Bank Development Indicators 2005, WEF Global Competitiveness Rankings
22                                                                                                  Inflation (Avg, 1990-03)               31.1%
        2006, World Bank Governance Index-2005, UN Population Division : Net Migration 1995-
        2000/Births per woman 2004, Koppen Climate Classification, ITU Mob/Internet Ranking 2005
Malawi Poverty Reduction Strategy (2004/05)
 World Bank                UK DFID                                               IMF/WB Debt                      Other/NGO
                           UK DFID                   EU Projects
                             UK DFID
  Projects                 Projects                                              Cancellation                      Projects
                            Projects
                             Projects
                                                                                                                Train 3000 Teachers
     Roads Projects
                                                                               Education
                                 Infrastructure            Health
                                                                                                                154 Teacher Houses
                                                      Nurse Training
                              • Paved Roads
    ICT Skill Training                                                    • M. Literacy: 76%
                                                    • Life expect: 37
                              18.5%
                                                                                                                  22 New Schools
                                                                          • F. Literacy: 49%
                                                    • Child Mort: 17.8%
                                                      Salary Top-ups
                              • Mob Tel: 3.3%
    Rural Electricity
                                                    • Immun: 77%        • Primary: 71%                          Educational Material
                                                    Nutrition Programs
                              • Internet: 0.3%
                                                    • AIDS: 14.2%       • Secondary: 29%
   Water Distribution                                                                                         Campus for Mzuzu Univ
                              • Reliable power
                                                    • TB:Youth training • Tertiary: 0.4%
                                                    HIV 0.44%
                              • Water/ Sanitation
                                                                                                               Female Scholarships
                                                      Governance
New Financial Systems
                                                               • Political Stability
                              •Governance Rating: 31%
                                                               • Control of Corruption
Courtrooms & Judges                                                                                            Economic/ Industrial
                              •Competitiveness Index:117/125 • Democracy/Voice                                   Policy Reform
                                                               • Rule of Law
 Anti-Corrupt Bureau          •Ease of Doing Business: 110/175 • Gov’t/Reg Effect’ness

                          Off-shore Fishing                                                    Agricultural Productivity
                                                                                                                               WTO
                                                                                                Small-scale Irrigation
                            Fish Farming                       Agriculture 38%                                                Doha
  Private
                                                                                                                              Round
  Foreign                                                                                       Farmer cooperatives
                         Mobile Telephony
   Direct                                                           Industry: 15%
                                                                                           Promote Small-scale Mining
Investment               Tourism Standards
                                                         Services: 49%                                                         23
                                                                                           Increase Telecom Capacity
                         Tourism Committee
Political instability and poor governance have been
 problems in many African countries - but many conflicts
 are ending and governance is improving
                                            TUNISIA – 51%
                                                                                                                  Improved Governance Rating
                MOROCCO
                  42%
                                 2002
                                                                                                                 (1996 – 2005):
                                ALGERIA               LIBYA – 22%
                                                                                                                 • Botswana (Corruption)
  WESTERN
                                  29%                                  EGYPT
  SAHARA
                                                                        36%
                                                                                                                 • Ghana (Democracy)
                                                                                        Red
                                                                                                                 • Mozambique (Stability)
                                                                                        Sea
          MAURITANIA
             44%
                                                                                                                 • Tanzania (Effectiveness)
                         MALI           NIGER – 29%
                                                       CHAD - 11%
SENEGAL                  46%
                                                                                                                 • DRC (Democracy, Regulations)
                                                                      SUDAN – 5%
 THE
                                                                                      1993
 GAMBIA                                                                                         DJIBOUTI
                       BURKINA
                                                                                                                 • Nigeria (Democracy)
 GUINEA    GUINEA                     NIGERIA
 BISSAU 2002                    BENIN
                                        14%
                                                                                                                 • Madagascar (Corruption)
                                                            CENTRAL                ETHIOPIA – 18%
     SIERRA
              2003        TOGO
                                                            AFRICAN
     LEONE
                                                                                                                 • Liberia (Democracy)
                                                            REPUBLIC
         LIBERIA                    CAMEROON
                IVORY GHANA                                                                     SOMALIA
                                                                      UGANDA
                COAST 51% EQUATORIAL
                                                                                                                 • Senegal (Stability, Democracy)
                                                                                                  0%
                                                                        30%
                                          1999          2003     1994
                  7%                                                        KENYA
                          GUINEA
                                    GABON                                    26%
                                                               RWANDA
                                               CONGO Democratic BURUNDI
                                                                      TANZANIA
                                                    Rep of Congo                                                    World Bank
                                                                         36%
                                                               – 3%
                                                                                                                                            Other Developing
                                                                                                                 Governance Rating
                                                 2002                    MALAWI
                                                                                                                                            Country Governance
                                                                                                                       2005
                                                                          34%
                                                      ANGOLA
                                                                                                                                            Ratings:
                                                                                      1992
                                                        14%                                                           - 75%
                                                                ZAMBIA
                                                                                                                                            • China – 38%
     Political Stability                                         31%                MOZAMBIQUE
                                                                                                                      - 50- 75%             • India – 43%
                                                                                       38%
                                                                                             MADAGASCAR
                                                                 ZIMBABWE
           - Year conflicts
  2007                                                                                                                                      • Turkey – 47%
                                                  NAMIBIA                                        50%
                                                                    5%
                                                                                                                      - 25 – 50%
           ended                                    58%   BOTSWANA
                                                                                                                                            • Romania – 52%
                                                             74%
                                                                                                                      - 10 – 25%
           - Conflicts still
           unresolved                                                          SWAZILAND
                                                                                                                      - 0 – 10%
                                                                  LESOTHO
                                                             SOUTH
                                                                                                                                                       24
                                                           AFRICA 64%
                                                                                              Source: World Bank Governance Indicators - 2005
Africa’s economic growth since the mid-1990’s is more
promising for poverty reduction, but diversification away
from commodities is still a challenge
                                            TUNISIA – 4.5%
                MOROCCO
                                                                                                  Countries with Average Growth
                  4.3%
                                                                                                   Greater than 5%, 2000-2005
                                ALGERIA           LIBYA – 5.3%
  WESTERN
                                                                                                     - Sustained, diversified
                                  5.1%                            EGYPT
  SAHARA
                                                                   3.7%                              growth
                                                                                 Red
                                                                                                     - Dependant on oil as major
                                                                                 Sea
        MAURITANIA
                   MALI
                                                                                                     export
            4%                   NIGER
                   5.9%                              CHAD
SENEGAL                           3.7%
                                                     14.5%        SUDAN
  THE            BURKINA FASO
                                                                   6.1%
  GAMBIA                                                                               DJIBOUTI
                      5.6%
                                 NIGERIA
 GUINEA GUINEA
                           BENIN
 BISSAU                            5.9%
                                               CENTRAL                ETHIOPIA
                         TOGO
  SIERRA                                       AFRICAN                  4.7%
  LEONE                                        REPUBLIC
                                CAMEROON
         LIBERIA
               IVORY GHANA
   13.7%                                                                         SOMALIA
                                   3.7%                      UGANDA
                                                 DEM REP
               COAST 5.1%                                                                         Annual GDP Growth (2000-2005)
                                       CONGO CONGO 4.4%         5.6% KENYA
                       EQUATORIAL
                -0.1%                                                  3.4%
                       GUINEA     GABON          RWANDA
                        23.2%
                                                                                                      > 5% - 18 countries
                                                   5.1%          TANZANIA
                                                                   6.5%
                                                  BURUNDI
                                                                                                      3- 5% -16 countries
                                                    5.6%
                                                            MALAWI
                                                                                                      1-3% - 6 countries
                                                              3.4%
                                        ANGOLA
                                                    ZAMBIA
                                          9.9%                                                         < 1% - 6 countries
                                                      4.7%          MOZAMBIQUE
                                                                          8.4% MADAGASCAR
                                                        ZIMBABW
                                        NAMIBIA                                    2.0%
                                                         E (5.7%)
                                         4.7%
                                                BOTSWANA
                                                   5.9%
                                                                          SWAZILAND 2.5%
                                                         SOUTH
                                                         AFRICA    LESOTHO 2.9%                                                    25
                                                           3.9

  Source: World Bank, African Development Indicators, 2007
South Africa’s diversified economy still has its
issues but provides hope for African growth
                                                                                                     Economic Output
                                                                                                GNI: $223 billion (2005)
                                                                                                Population: 47 million(2005)
                                                         Education
       Infrastructure              Health
                                                                                               Economy                     Poverty
    • Paved Roads 21% • Life expect: 46           • M. Literacy: 87%
    • Mob Tel: 72%         • Child Mort: 6.6% • F. Literacy: 85%                              Services: 65%                    <1$
    • Internet: 6.8%                              • Primary: 99%
                           • Immun: 83%                                                                Agriculture 4%           Between
    • Reliable power                              • Secondary: 65%                                                              $1and $2
                           • AIDS: 15.6%                                                                                > $2
                                                                                                      Industry: 31%
    • Water/ Sanitation • TB: 0.5%                • Tertiary: 15%

                              Governance
                                     • Political Stability
    • Governance Rating: 64%
                                                                                                                Economic
                                     • Control of Corruption
    • Competitiveness Index:45/125   • Democracy/Voice
                                                                                                                Performance
                                     • Rule of Law
    • Ease of Doing Business: 29/175 • Gov’t/Reg Effect’ness
                                                                                                               GNI /capita, PPP:
                                  People
                                                                                                                $12,120 (2005)
       • Births per woman: 2.8 • Ethnic Groups/ Culture
                                                                                            Growth (Avg. 1990-03)          2.3 (4.9)%
       • Net Migration: -.01%       • Population age 0-14: 32%
                                                                                            Investment (% GDP)                 17%
                               Geography
                                                                                            Exports (% GDP)                    28%
       • Natural Resources • Dry, Temperate, Continental
       • Access to trade         • Arable Land                                              Imports (% GDP)                    26%
       routes
                                 • Net Energy imports
                                                                                            Unemployment (00-05)               27.1%
 Sources: World Bank Development Indicators 2005, WEF Global Competitiveness Rankings
                                                                                            Inflation (Avg, 1990-03)           9.0%
 2006, World Bank Governance Index-2005, UN Population Division : Net Migration 1995-
 2000/Births per woman 2004, Koppen Climate Classification, ITU Mob/Internet Ranking 2005
4. Mobile telephony is a key enabler for ending
   extreme poverty




                                                  27
Mobile telephony has a broad range of benefits appropriate
to fighting poverty in developing countries

                               Faster Overall Growth
                           • Increased Mobile penetration increases
                           GNI Growth


Infrastructure,                                                                   % Agriculture
Health, Education                                                         % Services


                                       Mobile                                   % Industry
• Telecom infrastructure

                                       Telephony
• Emergency and distance
health benefits
                                                                      Productivity Benefits
                                                                      Across All Sectors:
• Access to internet
                                                                      • Access to agriculture
                                                                      market prices and other
                                                                      information
                                                                      • Jobs in rapidly growing
                               New Targeted Services                  telecom sector
                             • Banking for previously ‘unbanked’
                                                                      • Low-cost enabler for
                             • Increased international remittances    micro-businesses
                             • Innovative use of text services                                28
Vodacom in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is an
example of how private investment in mobile telephony can
create jobs in Africa

•   Using cellular networks to ‘leapfrog’ fixed line
    technology
      –    In 1997 less that 15,000 landlines for 65m people
      –    Vodacom grew to 3 million mobile subscribers since 1997
•   Alieu Conteh, founder and chairman of Vodacom
    Congo showed entrepreneurial possibilities
•   Now one of the country’s biggest employers
      –    600 employees/ 5,000 contractors
•   Planning to create the country’s first stock
    market and float Vodacom Congo in a public
    offering




                                                                                              29
Source: The New York Times, 17th June, 2007, What Does Africa Need Most: Technology or Aid?
5. There is an ongoing debate about what needs to be
   done to fight poverty




                                                       30
The Optimists: Poverty can be eliminated in
Africa – more aid is needed for a ‘big push’
•   Jeffery Sachs: UN Millennium Development Goals can be met,
    but would cost $150-200 billion a year in aid by 2015
•   2005 G8 Glen Eagles Summit leaders pledged to double aid to
    Africa from $25 to $50 billion per year by 2010
•   Bob Geldof’s Africa Commission and Live8 supported more G8
    aid funding
•   Bono: Led debt relief campaign and foreign aid increases in US
•   Bill Gates using resources to address treatable diseases
•   Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Bill Clinton global poverty initiatives




                                                                        31
Jeffery Sachs advocates a number of simultaneous
interventions at the village level for sustainable development

                                                                                      Agriculture


  Infrastructure                Health                  Education

                            • Nutrition and clean     • Primary and
 • Road improvements                                                              • Agricultural
                            water                     secondary education
 and community vehicle                                                            productivity and training
                            • Health services and     • Eliminate gender
 access
                                                                                  • Irrigation, fertiliser
                            facilities                disparity
 • Internet and mobile
                                                                                  • Support new village
                            • HIV/AIDS, TB and        • ICT training
 telephony access
                                                                                  businesses
                            Malaria Treatment
 • Electricity for small
 businesses



                               Millennium Villages
           79 Millennium Villages operating or planned in twelve different countries in Africa:
           Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda,
                                   Senegal, Tanzania and Uganda.
                                                                                                              32
The Pessimists: Aid has not been effective

      Where has $2.3 trillion in foreign aid over
               past 50 years gone?




  Temporary                                  Swiss bank
                      Corrupt and
Famine Relief?                               accounts?
                       wasteful
                     Bureaucrats?




                                                          33
Paul Collier proposes a more balanced agenda for action to
tackle poverty in the poorest countries


  The Conflict Trap                The Natural                   Landlocked with           Bad Governance
                                  Resource Trap                  bad Neighbours

  Military support for         International laws and               Substantial aid to     Intelligent use of aid to
 post-conflict countries         norms for resource               develop infrastructure      encourage reform
                                       wealth                      and for basic social
                                                                        services
 Charter for post-conflict                                                                 Selected use of military
       governance                                                                          intervention (e.g. Sierra
                                                                    Military support to            Leone)
                                                                     prevent coups
  Aid for reconstruction

                                                                      Trade policies
                                                                   encouraging exports


                             Globalisation reinforces poverty on many poor countries

                                   ‘Big Push’ temporary             Temporary trade
                                       aid for export             protection from Asian
                                       infrastructure                  competitors


                                                                                                                       34
Source: The Bottom Billion, Paul Collier, Oxford University Press, 2007
7 things you can do to help fight global poverty

1. Educate yourself about the causes and solutions of
   poverty
2. Vote and let your politicians know you care about global
   poverty
3. Contribute to organisations fighting poverty
4. Buy fair trade goods
5. Invest in companies that trade ethically
6. Volunteer for NGOs fighting poverty – build a school!
7. Tell others about poverty – give a presentation to your
   child’s school

                                                         35

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15 May 08 Global Poverty Presentation

  • 1. A Framework for Understanding the Economics of Global Poverty Jim Donahue 15th May 2008 jimdonahue7@yahoo.co.uk © 2008 Jim Donahue
  • 2. Overview 1. Nearly half of the world still lives in poverty 2. Some countries have moved from being poor to rich 3. Africa continues to lag behind 4. Mobile telephony is a key enabler for growth in poor countries 5. There is an ongoing debate about what needs to be done to fight extreme poverty Appendices: A. Case Study of Malawi: Can it move from poverty to prosperity? B. Example lifestyles at different levels of economic development 2
  • 3. 1. Nearly half of the world still lives in poverty 3
  • 4. How are rich and poor countries defined? How can poor countries become rich? GNI/Capita (PPP 2004) - >$20,000 - $10,000 - $20,000 - $5,000 -$10,000 - <$5,000 Source: World Bank Development Indicators - GNI/capita, PPP – 2004
  • 5. Most of the world lives in developing countries and nearly half earn less than $2 per day Number of Countries Developing Countries 80 73 Developed Countries 70 60 41 50 40 33 25 30 20 10 0 High Income Upper Middle Lower Middle Low Income (< (> $20,000 US) (10-$20,000) Income (5- $5,000) $10,000) Population 3,000,000,000 2.7 B 2.2 B 2,500,000,000 International 2,000,000,000 3 Billion Poverty <$2/day Lines: 1,500,000,000 1 Billion 1B 1,000,000,000 <$1/day 500,000,000 .2 B 0 High Income Upper Middle Lower Middle Low Income (< 5 (> $20,000 US) (10-$20,000) (5-$10,000) $5,000) Source: World Bank Development Indicators - GNI/capita, PPP – 2004
  • 6. Extreme poverty has been reduced in recent years, but nearly half of the world still lives in poverty 1981 2004 19% less than 40% less 33% $1/day than 52% Greater $1/day than $2/ day Greater Additional than $2/day 29% on Additional less than 27% on $2/day less than $2/day Total Population: 4.5 Billion Total Population: 6.4 Billion Less than $1/day 1.5 Billion Less than $1/day: 1.0 Billion Less than $2/day: 3.0 Billion Less than $2/day: 3.0 Billion 6 Source: World Bank Development Indicators - % Poverty 1981 - 2004
  • 7. 2. Some countries are moving from being poor to rich 7
  • 8. There of numerous examples of countries moving from being poor to rich Today’s Emerging Europe Japan and the Markets Asian Tigers (% growth 2004-05) Ireland 2005 Japan 2005 ($34,720) ($31,410) Spain2005 Taiwan 2005 ($25,820) (25,000) Greece 2005 S. Korea, 2005 Estonia– 9.8% ($23,620) ($21,850) Argentina – 9.2% S. Africa – 4.9% Malaysia – 5.9% Turkey – 7.4% Spain Ireland 2000 Venezuela – 9.3% 1988 China – 10.2% Japan 1950 Philippines – 5.0% Greece Indonesia – 5.6% Taiwan 1950 1960 India – 9.2% Angola – 20.6% S. Korea 1970 8 Source: World Bank Development Indicators
  • 9. Europe GNI per Capita/ Years to Double Size of the Economy Growth Rate (PPP 2005 US$) Developed (%Growth 2004-05) Countries UK- $32,690 (1.8%) Newly Emerging Markets France - $30,540 (1.2%) Germany -$29,210 (1.0%) Italy -$28,840 (0.0%) Spain -$25,820 (3.4%) Czech –$20,140 (6.1%) Hungary-$16,940 (4.1%) Estonia -$15,420 (9.8%) Poland -$13,490 (3.4%) Russia -$10,640 (6.4%) Romania-$8,940 (4.1%) Turkey - $8,420 (7.4%) Ukraine-$6,720 (2.6%) Source: World Bank 9 Development Indicators
  • 10. Key steps to poverty reduction through growth: 1. Create a good investment climate 2. Create formal economy jobs 3. Empower the poor to participate in the economy 1. Key private sector 2. Private investment decision factors: Informal/ investment and Sustenance export industries Economy create jobs and help grow the Infrastructure, formal economy Health, Education Private Sector Governance Formal Economy Indirect factors influencing investment decisions: 3. Health and education levels People/Culture empower the poor to move into 10 formal economy Geography jobs
  • 11. Six types of underlying factors help to explain a country’s ability to attract investment and grow Economic Output Gross National Income (GNI) Education Infrastructure Health Economy Poverty • Paved Roads % • Male Literacy • Life expectancy % Agriculture • Telecoms • Female Literacy • Child Mortality > $2 <1$ % Services • Internet/PC • Primary • Immunisation • Reliable power • Secondary • AIDS% Between $1 % Industry and $2 • Water/ Sanitation • Tertiary • Tuberculosis % Governance Economic • Political Stability • Governance Rating: x% • Control of Corruption Performance • Competitiveness Index: x/125 • Democracy/People’s Voice • Rule of Law GNI per capita • Ease of Doing Business: x/175 • Gov’t/Regulatory Effectiveness People Growth (1990-2003) % • Population growth • Ethnic Groups/ Cultural Values Investment (% GDP) % • Net Migration • Population age profile Geography Exports (% GDP) % • Natural resource • Climate Imports (% GDP) % • Access to trade routes • Arable Land Unemployment (00-05) % • Natural Disasters • Net energy imports Inflation (Avg. 1990-03) % 11
  • 12. France United Kingdom Economic Output Economic Output GNI: $2.273 trillion (2005) GNI: $2.169 trillion (2005) Population: 60 million (2005) Population: 61 million (2005) Economy Poverty Economy Poverty Services: 72% Services: 73% Agriculture 1% Agriculture 3% Industry: 27% Industry: 24% > $2 > $2 Economic Economic Performance Performance GNI/capita, PPP: GNI/capita, PPP: $32,690 (2005) $30,540 (2005) Growth (Avg. 1990-03) 2.7% Growth (Avg. 1990-03) 1.9% Investment (% GDP) 16% Investment (% GDP) 19% Exports (% GDP) 25% Exports (% GDP) 26% Imports (% GDP) 28% Imports (% GDP) 25% Unemployment (00-05) 4.6% Unemployment (00-05) 9.9% 12 Inflation (Avg. 1990-03) 2.7% Inflation (Avg. 1990-03) 1.5% Source: World Bank Development Indicators
  • 13. United Kingdom France (GNI/Capita, PPP $32,690) (GNI/Capita, PPP $30,540) Education Education Infrastructure Infrastructure Health Health • Paved Roads • Paved Roads • Life expect: 79 • M Literacy: 99% • M Literacy: 99% • Life expect: 78 100% 100% • Child Mort: 0.5% • F Literacy: 99% • Child Mort: 0.6% • F Literacy: 99% • Mob Tel :112% • Mob Tel: 80% • Immun: 86% • Primary: 99% • Primary: 99% • Immun: 80% • Internet: 42.3% • Internet :36.5% • AIDS: 0.4% • Secondary: 93% • Secondary: 95% • AIDS: 0.2% • Reliable power • Reliable power • TB: 0.12% • Tertiary: 54% • Tertiary: 64% • TB: 0.12% • Water/ Sanitation • Water/ Sanitation Governance Governance • Political Stability • Political Stability • Governance Rating: 90% • Governance Rating: 89% • Control of Corruption • Control of Corruption • Competitiveness Index:10/125 • Competitiveness Index:18/125 • Democracy/Voice • Democracy/Voice • Rule of Law • Rule of Law • Ease of Doing Business: 6/175 • Ease of Doing Business: 35/175 • Gov’t/Reg Effect’ness • Gov’t/Reg Effect’ness People People • Births per woman: 1.9 • Ethnic Groups/ Culture • Births per woman: 1.7 • Ethnic Groups/ Culture • Net migration: + .1% • Population age 0-14: 18.6% • Net migration: +.16% • Population age 0-14: 18.2% Geography Geography • Natural Resources • Temperate/ Continental • Natural Resources • Temperate/ Continental • Access to trade routes • Arable Land • Access to trade routes • Arable Land • Natural Disasters • Net Energy imports • Natural Disasters • Net Energy imports 13 Sources: World Bank Development Indicators 2005, WEF Global Competitiveness Rankings 2006, World Bank Governance Index-2005, UN Population Division : Net Migration 1995-2000/Births per woman 2004, Koppen Climate Classification, ITU Mob/Internet Ranking 2005
  • 14. Asia Millions are living in poverty….. India (2004) China (2004) GNI per Capita/ <1$ Growth Rate > $2 <1$ Between (PPP 2005 US$) > $2 (%Growth 2004-05) $1 and $2 Between Hong Kong-$34,670 (7.3%) $1 and $2 Japan -$31,410 (2.6%) Taiwan - $25,400 (5.0%) ….but it is improving S. Korea-$21,850 (4.0%) India China Extreme Poverty 70 million 400 million reduction since 1980 fewer fewer Malaysia - $10,320 (5.2%) Thailand - $8,440 (4.5%) China - $6,600 (10.2%) Philippines - $5,300 (5.0%) Indonesia - $3,720 (5.6%) India - $3,460 (9.2%) Vietnam - $3,010 (8.4%) 14 Source: World Bank Development Indicators
  • 15. China India Economic Output Economic Output GNI: $2.3 trillion (2005) GNI: $804 billion (2005) Population: 1.3 billion (2005) Population: 1.1 billion (2005) Economy Poverty Economy Poverty <1$ Agriculture 22% Services: 33% > $2 Agriculture 15% <1$ Between > $2 Services: 51% $1 and $2 Industry: 27% Between Industry: 52% $1 and $2 Economic Economic Performance Performance GNI/capita, PPP: GNI/capita, PPP: $6,600 (2005) $3,640 (2005) Growth (Avg. 1990-03) 10.3% Growth (Avg. 1990-03) 5.9% (9.2) Investment (% GDP) 44% Investment (% GDP) 24% Exports (% GDP) 34% Exports (% GDP) 14% Imports (% GDP) 32% Imports (% GDP) 16% Unemployment (00-05) 4.2% Unemployment (00-05) 5.0% Inflation (Avg, 1990-03) 4.9% Inflation (Avg, 1990-03) 6.8% 15 Source: World Bank Development Indicators
  • 16. China India (GNI/Capita, PPP $6,600) (GNI/Capita, PPP $3,460) Education Education Infrastructure Infrastructure Health Health • Roads ND • Roads 57% • M. Literacy: 98% • Life expect: 71 • Life expect: 68 • M. Literacy: 95% • Mob Tel: 30% • Mob Tel 8% • Child Mort: 3.7% • F. Literacy: ND • Child Mort: 8.7% • F. Literacy: 81% • Internet: 6.3% • Internet: 1.7% • Primary: 98% • Immunis: 86% • Immun: 67% • Primary: 95% • Reliable power • Reliable power • Secondary: 70% • AIDS: 0.4% • AIDS: 0.9% • Secondary: 79% • Water/ Sanitation • TB: 0.12% • Water/ Sanitation • TB: 0.26% • Tertiary: 15% • Tertiary: 28% Governance Governance • Political Stability • Political Stability • Governance Rating: 38% • Governance Rating: 43% • Control of Corruption • Control of Corruption • Competitiveness Index:54/125 • Competitiveness Index:43/125 • Democracy/Voice • Democracy/Voice • Rule of Law • Rule of Law • Ease of Doing Business: 93/175 • Gov’t/Reg Effect’ness • Ease of Doing Business: 134/175 • Gov’t/Reg Effect’ness People People • Births per woman:1.7 • Ethnic Groups/ Culture • Births per woman 3.1 • Ethnic Groups/ Culture • Net Migration: -.03% • Population age 0-14: 23.6% • Net Migration: -.03% • Population age 0-14: 32.4% Geography Geography • Natural Resources • Natural Resources • Temperate/ Continental • Tropical, Temperate, Dry • Access to trade routes • Access to trade routes • Arable Land • Arable Land • Natural Disasters • Natural Disasters • Net Energy imports • Net Energy imports Sources: World Bank Development Indicators 2005, WEF Global Competitiveness Rankings 2006, World Bank Governance Index-2005, UN Population Division : Net Migration 1995-2000/Births per woman 2004, Koppen Climate Classification, ITU Mob/Internet Ranking 2005 16
  • 17. India is struggling to improve its poor infrastructure in an effort to improve its capacity to grow 17
  • 18. 3. Africa continues to lag behind 18
  • 19. Sub-Saharan Africa is not on track to meet the UN Millennium Development Goals by 2015 TARGET Halve, between Goal 1: 1990 and 2015, the Eradicate proportion of people whose √ - goal achieved Extreme Poverty income is less than $1 a √ - on-track and Hunger on- day x – not on-track on- TARGET Ensure that, by Goal 2: Achieve 2015, all children will be √ - goal achieved Universal able to complete a full √ - on-track Education on- course of primary schooling √ - good progress TARGET Reduce by two Goal 4: thirds, between 1990 and Reduce Child 2015, the under-five Mortality mortality rate TARGET Have halted by Goal 6: 2015 and begun to reverse Combat HIV/AIDS, the spread of HIV/AIDS Malaria & Other Diseases 19
  • 20. 30 out of 48 African countries have GNI/capita less than $2,000 and are not well integrated into the global economy TUNISIA MOROCCO ALGERIA LIBYA WESTERN EGYPT SAHARA Red Sea MAURITANIA NIGER MALI SENEGAL CHAD SUDAN – 5% THE GAMBIA DJIBOUTI BURKINA GUINEA GUINEA NIGERIA BENIN BISSAU CENTRAL ETHIOPIA SIERRA TOGO AFRICAN LEONE REPUBLIC LIBERIA CAMEROON IVORY GHANA SOMALIA UGANDA Democratic Rep COAST 51% EQUATORIAL of Congo 7% KENYA GUINEA GABON CONGO RWANDA BURUNDI TANZANIA MALAWI GNI/Capita, PPP ANGOLA ->$20,000 ZAMBIA MOZAMBIQUE - $10 – 20,000 MADAGASCAR ZIMBABWE NAMIBIA - $5-10,000 BOTSWANA - $2 – 5,000 SWAZILAND LESOTHO - < $2,000 SOUTH 20 AFRICA Source: World Bank Development Indicators - 2005
  • 21. Paul Collier proposes a model of four traps to explain why some countries are unable to grow out of poverty The Conflict Trap The Natural Landlocked with Bad Governance Resource Trap bad Neighbours Current Conflicts: • Nigeria – Oil • Malawi • Zimbabwe • Somalia • Zambia – Copper • Central African Republic • Somalia • Cote d’Ivoire • Botswana – Diamonds • Burkina Faso • Chad/Sudan • Chad • Sierra Leone – Diamonds • Rwanda/ Burundi • Nigeria • Sudan • DRC – Diamonds, etc • Uganda • Angola Recent Conflicts: • Chad – Oil • Chad • DRC • DRC • Angola – Oil, Diamonds • Ivory Coast • Congo Republic • Liberia • Sierra Leone Globalisation reinforces poverty for many poor countries • Wealth of global investments opportunities highlights high risk of poorest countries for both foreign and local investors • Even more difficult to compete against other Asian competitors such as India and China 21 • Increased emigration opportunities intensifies ‘brain drain’ of limited pool talent Source: The Bottom Billion, Paul Collier, Oxford University Press, 2007
  • 22. Malawi’s economy reflects challenges typical of many African countries Economic Output GNI: $2.1 billion (2005) Population: 13 million(2005) Education Infrastructure Health Economy Poverty • Paved Roads • Life expect: 37 • M. Literacy: 76% 18.5% • Child Mort: 17.8%• F. Literacy: 49% Agriculture 38% • Mobile Tel: 3.3% <1$ > $2 • Immun: 77% • Primary: 71% • Internet: 0.3% • AIDS: 14.2% • Secondary: 29% Industry: 15% • Reliable power Services: 49% Between • TB: 0.44% • Tertiary: 0.4% $1 and $2 • Water/Sanitation Governance • Political Stability •Governance Rating: 31% Economic • Control of Corruption •Competitiveness Index:117/125 • Democracy/Voice Performance • Rule of Law •Ease of Doing Business: 110/175 • Gov’t/Reg Effect’ness GNI/capita, PPP: People $650 (2005) • Births per woman: 6.1 • Ethnic Groups/ Religion Growth (Avg. 1990-03) 3.0% • Net Migration: -.08% • Population age 0-14: 45% Geography Investment (% GDP) 8% Exports (% GDP) 27% • Natural Resources • Tropical wet and dry • Landlocked • Arable Land Imports (% GDP) 41% 22 • Natural Disasters • Net Energy imports Unemployment no data Sources: World Bank Development Indicators 2005, WEF Global Competitiveness Rankings 22 Inflation (Avg, 1990-03) 31.1% 2006, World Bank Governance Index-2005, UN Population Division : Net Migration 1995- 2000/Births per woman 2004, Koppen Climate Classification, ITU Mob/Internet Ranking 2005
  • 23. Malawi Poverty Reduction Strategy (2004/05) World Bank UK DFID IMF/WB Debt Other/NGO UK DFID EU Projects UK DFID Projects Projects Cancellation Projects Projects Projects Train 3000 Teachers Roads Projects Education Infrastructure Health 154 Teacher Houses Nurse Training • Paved Roads ICT Skill Training • M. Literacy: 76% • Life expect: 37 18.5% 22 New Schools • F. Literacy: 49% • Child Mort: 17.8% Salary Top-ups • Mob Tel: 3.3% Rural Electricity • Immun: 77% • Primary: 71% Educational Material Nutrition Programs • Internet: 0.3% • AIDS: 14.2% • Secondary: 29% Water Distribution Campus for Mzuzu Univ • Reliable power • TB:Youth training • Tertiary: 0.4% HIV 0.44% • Water/ Sanitation Female Scholarships Governance New Financial Systems • Political Stability •Governance Rating: 31% • Control of Corruption Courtrooms & Judges Economic/ Industrial •Competitiveness Index:117/125 • Democracy/Voice Policy Reform • Rule of Law Anti-Corrupt Bureau •Ease of Doing Business: 110/175 • Gov’t/Reg Effect’ness Off-shore Fishing Agricultural Productivity WTO Small-scale Irrigation Fish Farming Agriculture 38% Doha Private Round Foreign Farmer cooperatives Mobile Telephony Direct Industry: 15% Promote Small-scale Mining Investment Tourism Standards Services: 49% 23 Increase Telecom Capacity Tourism Committee
  • 24. Political instability and poor governance have been problems in many African countries - but many conflicts are ending and governance is improving TUNISIA – 51% Improved Governance Rating MOROCCO 42% 2002 (1996 – 2005): ALGERIA LIBYA – 22% • Botswana (Corruption) WESTERN 29% EGYPT SAHARA 36% • Ghana (Democracy) Red • Mozambique (Stability) Sea MAURITANIA 44% • Tanzania (Effectiveness) MALI NIGER – 29% CHAD - 11% SENEGAL 46% • DRC (Democracy, Regulations) SUDAN – 5% THE 1993 GAMBIA DJIBOUTI BURKINA • Nigeria (Democracy) GUINEA GUINEA NIGERIA BISSAU 2002 BENIN 14% • Madagascar (Corruption) CENTRAL ETHIOPIA – 18% SIERRA 2003 TOGO AFRICAN LEONE • Liberia (Democracy) REPUBLIC LIBERIA CAMEROON IVORY GHANA SOMALIA UGANDA COAST 51% EQUATORIAL • Senegal (Stability, Democracy) 0% 30% 1999 2003 1994 7% KENYA GUINEA GABON 26% RWANDA CONGO Democratic BURUNDI TANZANIA Rep of Congo World Bank 36% – 3% Other Developing Governance Rating 2002 MALAWI Country Governance 2005 34% ANGOLA Ratings: 1992 14% - 75% ZAMBIA • China – 38% Political Stability 31% MOZAMBIQUE - 50- 75% • India – 43% 38% MADAGASCAR ZIMBABWE - Year conflicts 2007 • Turkey – 47% NAMIBIA 50% 5% - 25 – 50% ended 58% BOTSWANA • Romania – 52% 74% - 10 – 25% - Conflicts still unresolved SWAZILAND - 0 – 10% LESOTHO SOUTH 24 AFRICA 64% Source: World Bank Governance Indicators - 2005
  • 25. Africa’s economic growth since the mid-1990’s is more promising for poverty reduction, but diversification away from commodities is still a challenge TUNISIA – 4.5% MOROCCO Countries with Average Growth 4.3% Greater than 5%, 2000-2005 ALGERIA LIBYA – 5.3% WESTERN - Sustained, diversified 5.1% EGYPT SAHARA 3.7% growth Red - Dependant on oil as major Sea MAURITANIA MALI export 4% NIGER 5.9% CHAD SENEGAL 3.7% 14.5% SUDAN THE BURKINA FASO 6.1% GAMBIA DJIBOUTI 5.6% NIGERIA GUINEA GUINEA BENIN BISSAU 5.9% CENTRAL ETHIOPIA TOGO SIERRA AFRICAN 4.7% LEONE REPUBLIC CAMEROON LIBERIA IVORY GHANA 13.7% SOMALIA 3.7% UGANDA DEM REP COAST 5.1% Annual GDP Growth (2000-2005) CONGO CONGO 4.4% 5.6% KENYA EQUATORIAL -0.1% 3.4% GUINEA GABON RWANDA 23.2% > 5% - 18 countries 5.1% TANZANIA 6.5% BURUNDI 3- 5% -16 countries 5.6% MALAWI 1-3% - 6 countries 3.4% ANGOLA ZAMBIA 9.9% < 1% - 6 countries 4.7% MOZAMBIQUE 8.4% MADAGASCAR ZIMBABW NAMIBIA 2.0% E (5.7%) 4.7% BOTSWANA 5.9% SWAZILAND 2.5% SOUTH AFRICA LESOTHO 2.9% 25 3.9 Source: World Bank, African Development Indicators, 2007
  • 26. South Africa’s diversified economy still has its issues but provides hope for African growth Economic Output GNI: $223 billion (2005) Population: 47 million(2005) Education Infrastructure Health Economy Poverty • Paved Roads 21% • Life expect: 46 • M. Literacy: 87% • Mob Tel: 72% • Child Mort: 6.6% • F. Literacy: 85% Services: 65% <1$ • Internet: 6.8% • Primary: 99% • Immun: 83% Agriculture 4% Between • Reliable power • Secondary: 65% $1and $2 • AIDS: 15.6% > $2 Industry: 31% • Water/ Sanitation • TB: 0.5% • Tertiary: 15% Governance • Political Stability • Governance Rating: 64% Economic • Control of Corruption • Competitiveness Index:45/125 • Democracy/Voice Performance • Rule of Law • Ease of Doing Business: 29/175 • Gov’t/Reg Effect’ness GNI /capita, PPP: People $12,120 (2005) • Births per woman: 2.8 • Ethnic Groups/ Culture Growth (Avg. 1990-03) 2.3 (4.9)% • Net Migration: -.01% • Population age 0-14: 32% Investment (% GDP) 17% Geography Exports (% GDP) 28% • Natural Resources • Dry, Temperate, Continental • Access to trade • Arable Land Imports (% GDP) 26% routes • Net Energy imports Unemployment (00-05) 27.1% Sources: World Bank Development Indicators 2005, WEF Global Competitiveness Rankings Inflation (Avg, 1990-03) 9.0% 2006, World Bank Governance Index-2005, UN Population Division : Net Migration 1995- 2000/Births per woman 2004, Koppen Climate Classification, ITU Mob/Internet Ranking 2005
  • 27. 4. Mobile telephony is a key enabler for ending extreme poverty 27
  • 28. Mobile telephony has a broad range of benefits appropriate to fighting poverty in developing countries Faster Overall Growth • Increased Mobile penetration increases GNI Growth Infrastructure, % Agriculture Health, Education % Services Mobile % Industry • Telecom infrastructure Telephony • Emergency and distance health benefits Productivity Benefits Across All Sectors: • Access to internet • Access to agriculture market prices and other information • Jobs in rapidly growing New Targeted Services telecom sector • Banking for previously ‘unbanked’ • Low-cost enabler for • Increased international remittances micro-businesses • Innovative use of text services 28
  • 29. Vodacom in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is an example of how private investment in mobile telephony can create jobs in Africa • Using cellular networks to ‘leapfrog’ fixed line technology – In 1997 less that 15,000 landlines for 65m people – Vodacom grew to 3 million mobile subscribers since 1997 • Alieu Conteh, founder and chairman of Vodacom Congo showed entrepreneurial possibilities • Now one of the country’s biggest employers – 600 employees/ 5,000 contractors • Planning to create the country’s first stock market and float Vodacom Congo in a public offering 29 Source: The New York Times, 17th June, 2007, What Does Africa Need Most: Technology or Aid?
  • 30. 5. There is an ongoing debate about what needs to be done to fight poverty 30
  • 31. The Optimists: Poverty can be eliminated in Africa – more aid is needed for a ‘big push’ • Jeffery Sachs: UN Millennium Development Goals can be met, but would cost $150-200 billion a year in aid by 2015 • 2005 G8 Glen Eagles Summit leaders pledged to double aid to Africa from $25 to $50 billion per year by 2010 • Bob Geldof’s Africa Commission and Live8 supported more G8 aid funding • Bono: Led debt relief campaign and foreign aid increases in US • Bill Gates using resources to address treatable diseases • Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Bill Clinton global poverty initiatives 31
  • 32. Jeffery Sachs advocates a number of simultaneous interventions at the village level for sustainable development Agriculture Infrastructure Health Education • Nutrition and clean • Primary and • Road improvements • Agricultural water secondary education and community vehicle productivity and training • Health services and • Eliminate gender access • Irrigation, fertiliser facilities disparity • Internet and mobile • Support new village • HIV/AIDS, TB and • ICT training telephony access businesses Malaria Treatment • Electricity for small businesses Millennium Villages 79 Millennium Villages operating or planned in twelve different countries in Africa: Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania and Uganda. 32
  • 33. The Pessimists: Aid has not been effective Where has $2.3 trillion in foreign aid over past 50 years gone? Temporary Swiss bank Corrupt and Famine Relief? accounts? wasteful Bureaucrats? 33
  • 34. Paul Collier proposes a more balanced agenda for action to tackle poverty in the poorest countries The Conflict Trap The Natural Landlocked with Bad Governance Resource Trap bad Neighbours Military support for International laws and Substantial aid to Intelligent use of aid to post-conflict countries norms for resource develop infrastructure encourage reform wealth and for basic social services Charter for post-conflict Selected use of military governance intervention (e.g. Sierra Military support to Leone) prevent coups Aid for reconstruction Trade policies encouraging exports Globalisation reinforces poverty on many poor countries ‘Big Push’ temporary Temporary trade aid for export protection from Asian infrastructure competitors 34 Source: The Bottom Billion, Paul Collier, Oxford University Press, 2007
  • 35. 7 things you can do to help fight global poverty 1. Educate yourself about the causes and solutions of poverty 2. Vote and let your politicians know you care about global poverty 3. Contribute to organisations fighting poverty 4. Buy fair trade goods 5. Invest in companies that trade ethically 6. Volunteer for NGOs fighting poverty – build a school! 7. Tell others about poverty – give a presentation to your child’s school 35