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Scenario Planning James C. Galvin, Ed.D. April 20, 2009
Organizations can become paralyzed by turbulence or chaos
You fear your organization may adapt too slowly to unexpected changes
You want to create robust strategies that will weather any storm
Use scenario planning to help your organization grow more resilient
Tyndale House Publishers was a growing company
20,000 copies
40,000 copies
80,000 copies
350,000 copies
900,000 copies
1,400,000 copies
1,800,000 copies
2,400,000 copies
What’s going to happen next?
Scenario planning is a way to plan when facing critical uncertainties
Scenario planning is not…
Rapid-cycle scenario planning is a high-yield six-step process
Step 1: Determine your focus
Step 2: Identify driving forces
Step 3: Surface questions that matter
Step 4: Explore alternative scenarios
Step 5: Identify strategic priorities
Step 6: Develop your action plan
Tyndale House still had four titles remaining in the series
Tyndale House strategic focus How should we respond to this unprecedented growth?
Tyndale House driving forces Lack of trained staff in all areas Distribution capacity squeezed Less ability for sales reps to give attention to individual products New marketing channels and emerging opportunities Stewardship of capital Pressure to compromise values Pressure from agents to up ante Decline of established channels (CBA, ABA, chains, independents) Author expectations going up More competition for good authors Harder to maximize mid-size properties Consumers turning to other media Shrinking labor pool Channels enforcing legislative regulations Decline of reading/literacy Environmental concerns Global marketplace Core market becoming more postmodern
Continued… Spiritual needs intensifying, interest in spiritual things increasing New, younger market Non-English speaking demographics Pressure to have bigger projects and addiction to big releases Secular markets opening up Rise of nontraditional competitors New, small publishers emerging Internet sales increasing Rise of E-books Pressure to establish brand quickly and have quick pay back Need for brand managers to leverage our brands Strategic alliances with others who own strong  brands Lack of time for new lines Reduction of shelf life of new bibles More intense competition Need for evangelism Crowded marketplace Consumers wanting to design their own Bibles
Tyndale House questions that matter Will general interest in spiritual things go up or down? Will bookstores struggle or thrive? Big box stores vs. bookstores CBA vs. ABA Christian chains vs. Independents
Tyndale House scenario logic
Brand X scenario logic
ACSI scenario logic
G&A scenario logic
G&A scenarios
Use scenario planning to help your organization grow more resilient
Everyone in the organization will feel more confident about your future
G&A www.galvinandassociates.com

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Scenario planning 5

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Tyndale House strategic prioritiesSlow down new releases in the seriesBuild capacity for riding the blockbuster sales curveUnder-staff most departments on purposeBuy land and build a new warehouse offsiteBegin developing future leadershipTarget younger audiences.
  2. Same Old SongMinistry is more or less effectiveLeaders trying to hold a steady courseFinances are tight but OK, FR a bit more challengingGeneral attitude “What, me worry?”WaterWorldWorld changing in unexpected waysLeaders try to ride it outCompetition for resourcesWidespread lack of cooperationSuspicious of consultantsFuture ShockRapidly changing environmentNew opportunitiesLeaders ready to rethink what they are doingAdequate resources at handPositive view of outsourcing