The Laird Report - April 2014 Edition

....
The Laird Economics Report
Apr 10, 2014
Where we are now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Indicators for US Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Global Financial Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
US Key Interest Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
US Inﬂation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
QE Taper Tracker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
US Banking Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
US Employment Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
US Business Activity Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
US Consumption Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
US Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Global Business Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Canadian Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
European Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Chinese Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Global Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Where we are now
Welcome to the Laird Economics Report. This report looks at where
we are today based on a presentation of economic indicators with some
historical context.
I’ve given a number of the indicators an overhaul over the past
month to improve their clarity - or to jetison indicators that I think
weren’t providing enough useful information. Enjoy!
Formatting Notes The grey bars on the various charts are OECD
recession indicators for the respective countries. In many cases, the last
available value is listed, along with the median value (measured from
as much of the data series as is available).
Subscription Info For a FREE subscription to this monthly re-
port, please email us at jimalaird@gmail.com
The Laird Report, Apr 10, 2014

Indicators for US Economy
Leading indicators are indicators that usually change before the
economy as a whole changes. They are useful as short-term predictors
of the economy. Our list includes the Philly Fed’s Leading Index which
summarizes multiple indicators; initial jobless claims and hours worked
(both decrease quickly when demand for employee services drops and
vice versa); purchasing manager indicies; new order and housing per-
mit indicies; delivery timings (longer timings imply more demand in
the system) and consumer sentiment (how consumers are feeling about
their own ﬁnancial situation and the economy in general).
Leading Index for the US
Index:Est.6monthgrowth
−3−11234
median: 1.41
Feb 2014: 1.13
Growth
Contraction
Initial Unemployment Claims
1000'sofClaimsperWeek
200400600
median: 353.25
Mar 2014: 319.50
Manufacturing Ave. Weekly Hours Worked
Hours
39.040.041.042.0
median: 40.60
Mar 2014: 42.00
ISM Manufacturing: PMI Composite Index
Index:SteadyState=50
3040506070
median: 53.20
Mar 2014: 53.70
expanding economy
contracting economy
Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods
BillionsofDollars
120160200240
median: 182.13
Feb 2014: 229.09
ISM Manufacturing: Supplier Deliveries
Index
40506070
median: 51.50
Mar 2014: 54.00
Slower Deliveries
Faster Deliveries
Capex (ex. Defense & Planes)
Percentchange(3months)
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95
96
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98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−10−505
median: 0.89
Feb 2014: −0.062
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
IndexValue
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−4−202
median: 0.075
Feb 2014: 0.14
U. Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
Index1966Q1=100
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
507090110
median: 88.40
Mar 2014: 80.00
The Laird Report Apr 10, 2014 Page 2

Global Financial Markets
Global Stock Market Returns
Country Index Name Close Date Current
Value
Weekly
Change
Monthly
Change
3 month
Change
Yearly
Change
Corr to
S&P500
Corr to
TSX
North America
USA S&P 500 Apr 09 1,872.2 -1.0% J -0.3% J 1.9% I 19.4% I 1.00 0.77
USA NASDAQ Composite Apr 09 4,183.9 -2.2% J -3.5% J 0.7% I 29.2% I 0.92 0.70
USA Wilshire 5000 Total Market Apr 09 19,962.0 -1.3% J -0.8% J 1.8% I 20.7% I 0.99 0.78
Canada S&P TSX Apr 09 14,435.6 -0.2% J 0.9% I 5.9% I 15.6% I 0.77 1.00
Europe and Russia
France CAC 40 Apr 09 4,442.7 0.3% I 1.6% I 5.1% I 21.0% I 0.63 0.56
Germany DAX Apr 09 9,506.4 -1.2% J 2.6% I 0.9% I 24.5% I 0.57 0.49
United Kingdom FTSE Apr 09 6,635.6 -0.4% J -0.8% J -0.8% J 5.1% I 0.56 0.56
Russia Market Vectors Russia ETF Apr 09 23.6 -1.6% J 3.3% I -13.1% J -12.1% J 0.63 0.48
All Europe Euro Stoxx 50 Apr 07 3,186.0 0.8% I 2.9% I 2.4% I 23.0% I 0.64 0.59
Asia
Taiwan TSEC weighted index Apr 09 8,930.6 0.3% I 3.1% I 4.9% I 15.6% I 0.03 0.09
China Shanghai Composite Index Apr 09 2,105.2 2.2% I 5.3% I 3.8% I -5.4% J -0.07 0.04
Japan NIKKEI 225 Apr 09 14,299.7 -4.3% J -5.4% J -10.0% J 8.4% I 0.08 0.15
Hong Kong Hang Seng Apr 09 22,843.2 1.4% I 2.6% I 0.2% I 4.4% I 0.18 0.26
Korea Kospi Apr 09 1,999.0 0.1% I 2.3% I 2.7% I 4.1% I 0.16 0.18
South Asia and Austrailia
India Bombay Stock Exchange Apr 09 22,702.3 0.7% I 3.5% I 9.6% I 24.6% I 0.20 0.22
Indonesia Jakarta Apr 08 4,921.4 1.0% I 5.2% I 17.2% I 0.5% I -0.08 0.15
Malaysia FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Apr 09 1,855.8 0.2% I 1.8% I 1.5% I 9.8% I 0.07 0.08
Australia All Ordinaries Apr 09 5,460.3 1.0% I 0.5% I 2.5% I 9.6% I 0.06 0.18
New Zealand NZX 50 Index Gross Apr 09 5,067.4 -1.0% J -1.0% J 4.2% I 15.3% I 0.16 0.29
South America
Brasil IBOVESPA Apr 09 51,185.0 -1.0% J 12.4% I 3.8% I -8.5% J 0.36 0.31
Argentina MERVAL Buenos Aires Apr 09 6,476.0 -0.3% J 11.8% I 20.5% I 86.4% I 0.23 0.22
Mexico Bolsa index Apr 09 40,937.8 0.1% I 5.9% I -1.6% J -6.9% J 0.47 0.44
MENA and Africa
Egypt Market Vectors Egypt ETF Apr 09 65.6 -2.7% J -2.7% J 17.4% I 51.0% I 0.28 0.23
(Gulf States) Market Vectors Gulf States ETF Apr 09 33.2 4.0% I 10.6% I 18.5% I 47.8% I 0.36 0.31
South Africa iShares MSCI South Africa Index Apr 09 68.2 2.4% I 6.6% I 12.9% I 9.6% I 0.69 0.56
(Africa) Market Vectors Africa ETF Apr 09 32.2 1.8% I 2.1% I 6.9% I 9.1% I 0.64 0.58
Commodities
USD Spot Oil West Texas Int. Apr 07 $100.4 -1.1% J -2.3% J 7.6% I 7.6% I 0.18 0.26
USD Gold LME Spot Apr 09 $1,309.8 2.0% I -1.8% J 6.8% I -16.7% J -0.24 -0.20
Note: Correlations are based on daily arithmetic returns for the most recent 100 trading days.

S&P 500 Composite Index
The S&P 500 Composite Index is widely regarded as the best single
gauge of the large cap U.S. equities market. A key figure is the valua-
tion level of the S&P500 as measured by the Price/Earnings ratio. We
present two versions: (1) a 12-month trailing earnings version which
reflects current earnings but is skewed by short term variances and (2)
a cyclically adjusted version which looks at the inflation adjusted earn-
ings over a 10 year period (i.e. at least one business cycle). Forecasted
earnings numbers are estimates provided by S&P.
S&P 500 Profit Margins and Overall Corporate Profit Margins (Trailing 12 months)
Percent
63
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65
66
67
68
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01
02
03
04
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08
09
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11
12
13
14
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Percent
Total Corporate Profits (% of GDP) − median: 6.2%, Q3/13: 11.0%
Net Profit Margin (S&P 500 Earnings / Revenue) − median: 6.5%, Q4/13: 9.0%
S&P Quarterly Earnings (USD$ Inflation Adjusted to current prices)
63
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01
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09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
−5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
Tech Bubble
Japanese Asset Bubble
House Bubble
Asian Financial Crisis
US Financial Crisis
Eurozone crisis
Oil Crisis I Oil Crisis II
Gulf War
Savings and Loans Crisis
High Inflation Period
Afganistan/Iraq WarVietnam War
Reported Earnings
Operating Earnings
Trailing P/E Ratios for S&P500
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15
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
Multiple
Multiple
12−month P/E ( median = 17.4, Apr = 17.4)
10−year CAPE ( median = 19.4, Apr = 23.8)

S&P 500 Composite Distributions
This is a view of the price performance of the S&P 500 index com-
panies. The area of each box is proportional to the company’s market
cap, while the colour is determined by the percentage change in price
over the past month. In addition, companies are sorted according to
their industry group.
AAPL
0.49%
GOOG
1%
MSFT
7.1%
IBM
6.7%
ORCL
6.5%
FB
QCOM
INTC
10%
V CSCO
MA
EBAY
HPQ
EMC TXN
ACN
ADP
YHOO
CRM
MU
ADI
FIS
CA
BRK−A
6.5%
WFC
6.4%
JPM
6.1%
BAC
2%
C
AXP
USB AIG
GS MS
MET
BLK
SPG
PNC
COF
BK BEN
ACE
AMT
TRV
PSA
STT
AFL
MMC CCI
CME
ICE
L
RF
JNJ
8.1%
PFE
−2.3%
MRK
GILD BMY
UNH BIIB
LLY MDT
CELG
ABT
TMO
ACT
COV
AET FRX
CI
A
AMZN DIS
CMCSA
HD
MCD
FOXA
NKE
PCLN
F
TWX
SBUX
GM
LOW
TJX
DTV
TGT
TWC
VIAB
CBS
YUM
JCI
CCL
M
LB
MAR
RL
TIF
XOM
1.9%
GE
3.3%
CVX
3.7%
SLB
8.5%
COP
OXY
EOG
APC
HAL PSX
KMI BHI
VLO
WMB
SE
FTI
HP
WMT
5.9%
PG
5.2%
KO
PM
5.5%
PEP
6.3%
CVS
MO
WAG
CL
MDLZ
COST
KMB
GIS
ADM
RAI
EL
K
KR
LO
UTX BA UPS
MMM
2.7%
UNP
3.9%
HON CAT
LMT
EMR
FDX
GD
ITW
DE
NSC
DAL CMI
IR
DD
DOW
LYB
PX
FCX
ECL
PPG
IP
CF
AA
DUK
D SO
EXC
AEP
SRE
PPL
ED
NU
FE
VZ
2.5%
T
11%
Information Technology
Financials
Health Care
Consumer Discretionary
Energy Consumer Staples
Industrials
Materials Utilities
Telecommunications
Services
<−25.0% −20.0% −15.0% −10.0% −5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% >25.0%
% Change in Price from Mar 01, 2014 to Apr 09, 2014
Average Median Median Median
Sector Change P/Sales P/Book P/E
Telecommunications Services 6.9% I 1.2 2.0 16.8
Utilities 5.6% I 1.4 1.6 19.0
Energy 4.1% I 2.1 1.7 19.5
Consumer Staples 3.9% I 1.8 4.8 20.0
Financials 3.0% I 3.0 1.6 18.0
Average Median Median Median
Sector Change P/Sales P/Book P/E
Industrials 2.0% I 1.6 3.3 21.1
Information Technology 1.9% I 3.0 3.9 24.4
Materials 1.7% I 1.5 3.4 22.4
Health Care -0.7% J 3.1 3.5 23.3
Consumer Discretionary -1.6% J 1.5 4.0 19.2

US Equity Valuations
A key valuation metric is Tobin’s q: the ratio between the market
value of the entire US stock market versus US net assets at replacement
cost (ie. what you pay versus what you get). Warren Buﬀet famously
follows stock market value as a percentage of GNP, which is highly
(93%) correlated to Tobin’s q.
We can also take the reverse approach: assume the market has
valuations correct, we can determine the required returns of future es-
timated earnings. These are quoted for both debt (using BAA rated
securities as a proxy) and equity premiums above the risk free rate (10
year US Treasuries). These ﬁgures are alternate approaches to under-
standing the current market sentiment - higher premiums indicate a
demand for greater returns for the same price and show the level of
risk-aversion in the market.
Tobin's q (Market Equity / Market Net Worth) and S&P500 Price/Sales
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15
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
Buying assets at a discount
Paying up for growth
Tobin Q (median = 0.75, Dec = 1.07)
S&P 500 Price/Sales (median = 1.31, Dec = 1.66)
Equity and Debt Risk Premiums: Spread vs. Risk Free Rate (10−year US Treasury)
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13
14
15
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Implied Equity Premium (median = 4.2%, Mar = 4.7%)
Debt (BAA) Premium (median = 2.0%, Mar = 2.3%)

US Mutual Fund Flows
Fund ﬂows describe the net investments in equity and bond mutual
funds in the US market, as described in ICI’s “Trends in Mutual Fund
Investing” report. Note however that this is only part of the story as
it does not include ETF fund ﬂows - part of the changes are investors
entering or leaving the market, and part is investors shifting to ETF’s
from mutual funds.
US Net New Investment Cash Flow to Mutual Funds
US$billions(monthly)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
−40−2002040
Domestic Equity
World Equity
Taxable Bonds
Municipal Bonds
US Net New Investment Cash Flow to Mutual Funds
US$billions(Monthly)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
−60−40−200204060
Flows to Equity
Flows to Bonds
Net Market Flows

US Key Interest Rates
Interest rates are often leading indicators of stress in the ﬁnancial
system. The yield curve show the time structure of interest rates on
government bonds - Usually the longer the time the loan is outstanding,
the higher the rate charged. However if a recession is expected, then
the fed cuts rates and this relationship is inverted - leading to negative
spreads where short term rates are higher than long term rates.
Almost every recession in the past century has been preceeded by an
inversion - though not every inversion preceeds a recession (just most
of the time).
For corporate bonds, the key issue is the spread between bond rates
(i.e. AAA vs BAA bonds) or between government loans (LIBOR vs
Fedfunds - the infamous “TED Spread”). Here a spike correlates to an
aversion to risk, which is an indication that something bad is happen-
ing.
US Treasury Yield Curves
ForwardInstantaneousRates(%)
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
08 Apr 14 ( Today )
10 Mar 14 ( 1 mo ago )
08 Jan 14 ( 3 mo ago )
08 Apr 13 ( 1 yr ago )
3 Month & 10 Yr Treasury Yields
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
10 Yr Treasury
3 Mo Treasury
Spread
AAA vs. BAA Bond Spreads
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Percent
AAA
BAA
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01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
median: 91.00
Apr 2014: 71.00
0
100
200
300
0
100
200
300
Spread(bps)
LIBOR vs. Fedfunds Rate
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Percent
3 mos t−bill
LIBOR
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99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
median: 37.03
Apr 2014: 20.01
0
100
200
300
0
100
200
300
Spread(bps)

US Inflation
Generally, the US Fed tries to anchor long run inflation expectations
to approximately 2%. Inflation can be measured with the Consumer
Price Index (CPI) or the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
index.
In both cases, it makes sense to exclude items that vary quickly like
Food and Energy to get a clearer picture of inflation (usually called
Core Inflation). The Fed seems to think PCI more accurately reflects
the entire basket of goods and services that households purchase.
Finally, we can make a reasonable estimate of future inflation ex-
pectations by comparing real return and normal bonds to construct an
imputed forward inflation expectation. The 5y5y chart shows expected
5 year inflation rates at a point 5 years in the future. Neat trick that.
Consumer Price Index
Percent
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99
00
01
02
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−1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
−1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
US Inflation Rate YoY% (Feb = 1.1%)
US Inflation ex Food & Energy YoY% (Feb = 1.6%)
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Percent(YearoverYear)
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98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−10123456
PCE Inflation Rate YoY% (Feb = 0.87%)
PCE Core Inflation YoY% (Feb = 1.1%)
5−Year, 5−Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
Percent
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
−10123456
5 year forward Inflation Expectation
Actual 5yr Inflation (CPI measure)
Actual 5yr Inflation (PCE Measure

QE Taper Tracker
The US has been using the program of Quantitative Easing to pro-
vide monetary stimulous to its economy. The Fed has engaged in a
series of programs (QE1, QE2 & QE3) designed to drive down long
term rates and improve liquidity though purchases of treasuries, mor-
gage backed securites and other debt from banks.
The higher demand for long maturity securities would drive up their
price, but as these securities have a fixed coupon, their yield would be
decreased (yield ≈ coupon / price) thus driving down long term rates.
In 2011-2012, “Operation Twist” attempted to reduce rates without
increasing liquidity. They went back to QE in 2013.
The Fed chairman suggested in June 2013 the economy was recover-
ing enough that they could start slowing down purchases (“tapering”).
The Fed backed off after a brief market panic. The Fed announced in
Dec 2013 that it was starting the taper, a decision partly driven by
seeing key targets of inflation around 2% and unemployment being less
than 6.5%. These charts track that progress.
QE Asset Purchases to Date (Treasury & Mortgage Backed Securities)
Trillions
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
QE1 QE2 Operation Twist QE3 TaperTreasuries
Mortgage Backed Securities
Total Monthly Asset Purchases (Treasury + Mortgage Backed Securities)
Billions
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
Month to date Apr 02: $9.1
Inflation and Unemployment − Relative to Targets
Percent
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
Target Unemployment 6.5%
Target Inflation 2%
U.S. 10 Year and 3 Month Treasury Constant Maturity Yields
Percent
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Short Term Rates:
Once at zero, Fed moved to QE
Long Term Rates:
Moving up in anticipation of Taper?

Exchange Rates
10 Week Moving Average CAD Exchange Rates
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00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
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09
10
11
12
13
14
0.620.710.810.901.001.09
USA/CAD
0.550.610.660.720.770.82
Euro/CAD
59.1674.7190.26105.81121.36136.91
Japan/CAD
0.380.440.490.550.610.67
U.K./CAD
0.590.981.361.742.122.51
Brazil/CAD
CAD Appreciating
CAD Depreciating
1 Month Change in Rates versus Average
−3.0%
−1.5%
1.5%
3.0%
Euro
0.9%
UK
1.1%
Japan
1.4%
South Korea
−1.0%
China
1.2%
India
−2.6%
Brazil
−3.8%
Mexico
−1.4%
Canada
−0.8%
USA
−0.1%
% Change over 3 months vs. Canada
<−10.0% −8.0% −6.0% −4.0% −2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% >10.0%
CAD depreciatingCAD appreciating
ARG
−16.4%
AUS
5.9%
BRA
8.9%
CHN
0.3%
IND
4.4%
RUS
−5.6%
USA
1.4%
EUR
2.6%
JPY
3.7%
KRW
2.7%
MXN
1.7%
ZAR
3.4%

US Banking Indicators
The banking and finance industry is a key indicator of the health
of the US economy. It provides crucial liquidity to the economy in the
form of credit, and the breakdown of that system is one of the exac-
erbating factors of the 2008 recession. Key figures to track are the
Net Interest Margins which determine profitability (ie. the difference
between what a bank pays to depositors versus what the bank is paid
by creditors), along with levels of non-performing loans (i.e. loan loss
reserves and actual deliquency rates).
US Banks Net Interest Margin
Percent
3.54.04.5
median: 3.95
2013 Q4: 3.21
Repos Outstanding with Fed. Reserve
BillionsofDollars
50150250
median: 43.69
Apr 2014: 197.20
Bank ROE − Assets between $300M−$1B
Percent
051015
median: 12.88
2013 Q4: 9.11
Consumer Credit Outstanding
%YearlyChange
−505101520
median: 7.07
Feb 2014: 5.39
Total Business Loans
%YearlyChange
−2001020 median: 7.78
Feb 2014: 8.42
US Nonperforming Loans
Percent
12345
median: 2.35
2013 Q4: 2.68
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
Index
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0246
median: −0.14
Mar 2014: −1.06
Commercial Paper Outstanding
TrillionsofDollars
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1.01.41.82.2
median: 1.36
Apr 2014: 1.03
Residential Morgage Delinquency Rate
Percent
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
246810
median: 2.30
2013 Q4: 8.21

US Employment Indicators
Unemployment rates are considered the “single best indicator of
current labour conditions” by the Fed. The pace of payroll growth is
highly correlated with a number of economic indicators.Payroll changes
are another way to track the change in unemployment rate.
Unemployment only captures the percentage of people who are in
the labour market who don’t currently have a job - another measure
is what percentage of the whole population wants a job (employed or
not) - this is the Participation Rate.
The Beverage Curve measures labour market eﬃciency by looking
at the relationship between job openings and the unemployment rate.
The curve slopes downward reﬂecting that higher rates of unemploy-
ment occur coincidentally with lower levels of job vacancies.
Unemployment Rate
Percent
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
median: 6.30
Mar 2014: 6.70
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Percent
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2.02.53.03.54.0
Beverage Curve (Unemployment vs. Job Openings)
Unemployment Rate (%)
JobOpenings(%totalEmployment)
Dec 2000 − Dec 2008
Jan 2009 − Jan 2014
Feb 2014
Participation Rate
Percent
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
6364656667
median: 66.10
Mar 2014: 63.20
Total Nonfarm Payroll Change
MonthlyChange(000s)
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−5000500
median: 160
Mar 2014: 192

There are a number of other ways to measure the health of em-
ployment. The U6 Rate includes people who are part time that want
a full-time job - they are employed but under-utilitized. People who
are part time for economic reasons (and would rather be full time) are
another important measure of this.
Job Opening and Labour Turnover Surveys (Hires/Quits/Openings)
are similar to payroll surveys where most other data comes from. Open-
ings are a guage of skills mismatch and pend up labour demand. Hires
should corroborate a pickup in payrolls and Quits implies the percep-
tion of reemployment is high.
Median Duration of Unemployment
Weeks
510152025
median: 8.60
Mar 2014: 16.30
(U6) Unemployed + PT + Marginally Attached
Percent
810121416
median: 9.60
Mar 2014: 12.70
4−week moving average of Initial Claims
Jan1995=100
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
50100150200
median: 108.61
Mar 2014: 98.23
Hires Rate
%ofTotalPayrolls
3.03.54.0
median: 3.60
Feb 2014: 3.30
Quits Rate
%ofTotalPayrolls
1.41.82.22.6
median: 1.90
Feb 2014: 1.70
Openings
%ofOpenings+Payrolls
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
2.02.53.03.5
median: 2.66
Feb 2014: 2.94
Part Time for Economic Reasons
MillionsofPersons
2468
median: 4.09
Mar 2014: 7.41
Unemployed over 27 weeks
MillionsofPersons
01234567
median: 0.77
Mar 2014: 3.79
Services: Temp Help
MillionsofPersons
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1.52.02.5
median: 2.22
Mar 2014: 2.84

US Business Activity Indicators
Business activity is split between manufacturing activity and non-
manufacturing activity. We are focusing on forward looking business
indicators like new order and inventory levels to give a sense of the
current business environment.
Manufacturing Sector: Real Output
YoYPercentChange
−15−5515
median: 6.67
2013 Q4: 9.59
ISM Manufacturing: PMI Composite Index
Index
3040506070
Mar 2014: 53.70
manufac. expanding
manufac. contracting
ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Index
Index
304050607080
Mar 2014: 55.10
Increase in new orders
Decrease in new orders
Non−Manufac. New Orders: Capital Goods
BillionsofDollars
35455565
median: 57.03
Feb 2014: 67.37
Average Weekly Hours: Manufacturing
Hours
3940414243
median: 41.10
Mar 2014: 42.00
Industrial Production: Manufacturing
YoYPercentChange
−15−50510
median: 3.26
Feb 2014: 1.64
Total Business: Inventories to Sales Ratio
Ratio
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1.11.21.31.41.51.6
median: 1.37
Jan 2014: 1.32
Chicago Fed: Sales, Orders & Inventory
Index
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−0.50.00.5
Feb 2014: 0.06Above ave growth
Below ave growth
ISM Non−Manufacturing Bus. Activity Index
Index
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
35455565
Mar 2014: 53.40
Growth
Contraction

US Consumption Indicators
Variations in consumer activity are a leading indicator of the
strength of the economy. We track consumer sentiment (their expec-
tations about the future), consumer loan activity (indicator of new
purchase activity), and new orders and sales of consumer goods.
U. Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
Index1966Q1=100
5060708090110
median: 88.40
Mar 2014: 80.00
Consumer Loans (All banks)
YoY%Change
0102030
median: 7.13
Feb 2014: 1.91
Accounting
Change
Deliquency Rate on Consumer Loans
Percent
2.53.03.54.04.5
median: 3.49
2013 Q4: 2.39
New Orders: Durable Consumer Goods
YoY%Change
−30−101030
median: 3.83
Feb 2014: 2.10
New Orders: Non−durable Consumer Goods
YoY%Change
−2001020
median: 3.93
Feb 2014: 2.84
Personal Consumption & Housing Index
Index
−0.40.00.2
median: 0.02
Feb 2014: −0.16above ave growth
below ave growth
Light Cars and Trucks Sales
MillionsofUnits
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
10121416182022
median: 14.71
Mar 2014: 16.33
Personal Saving Rate
Percent
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
246810
median: 5.50
Feb 2014: 4.30
Real Retail and Food Services Sales
YoY%Change
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−10−505
median: 2.47
Feb 2014: 0.80

US Housing
Housing construction is only about 5-8% of the US economy, how-
ever a house is typically the largest asset owned by a household. Since
personal consumption is about 70% of the US economy and house val-
ues directly impact household wealth, housing is an important indicator
in the health of the overall economy. In particular, housing investment
was an important driver of the economy getting out of the last few
recessions (though not this one so far). Here we track housing prices
and especially indicators which show the current state of the housing
market.
15 20 25 30 35
150200250300
Personal Income vs. Housing Prices (Inflation adjusted values)
NewHomePrice(000's)
Disposable Income Per Capita (000's)
Feb 2014
r2
: 89.0%
Range: Jan 1963 − Feb 2014
New Housing Units Permits Authorized
MillionsofUnits
0.51.01.52.02.5
median: 1.36
Feb 2014: 1.01
New Home Median Sale Price
SalePrice$000's
100150200250
Feb 2014: 261.80
Homeowner's Equity Level
Percent
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
4050607080
median: 66.54
2013 Q4: 51.69
New Homes: Median Months on the Market
Months
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
468101214
median: 5.00
Feb 2014: 3.50
US Monthly Supply of Homes
MonthsSupply
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
4681012
median: 5.95
Feb 2014: 5.20

US Housing - FHFA Quarterly Index
The Federal Housing Finance Agency provides a quarterly survey
on house prices, based on sales prices and appraisal data. This gener-
ates a housing index for 355 municipal areas in the US from 1979 to
present. We have provided an alternative view of this data looking at
the change in prices from the peak in the 2007 time frame.
The goal is to provide a sense of where the housing markets are
weak versus strong.The colours represent gain or losses since the start
of the housing crisis (deﬁned as the maximum price between 2007-2009
for each city). The circled dots are the cities in the survey, while the
background colours are interpolated from these points using a loess
smoother.
Change from 2007 Peak − Q4 2013
−50%
−40%
−30%
−20%
−10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Today's Home Prices
Percentage Change from 2007−2009 Peak
Frequency
−75% −50% −25% 0% 25% 50% 75%
Year over Year Change − Q4 2013
−10%
−8%
−6%
−4%
−2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
YoY Change in this quarter
YoY Percent Change
Frequency
−15% −5% 5% 15%

Global Business Indicators
Global PMI Reports
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an indicator reﬂecting
purchasing managers’ acquisition of goods and services. An index read-
ing of 50.0 means that business conditions are unchanged, a number
over 50.0 indicates an improvement while anything below 50.0 suggests
a decline. The further away from 50.0 the index is, the stronger the
change over the month. The chart at the bottom shows a moving av-
erage of a number of PMI’s, along with standard deviation bands to
show a global average.
Global PMI − March 2014
<40.0 42.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 >60.0
Steady ExpandingContracting
Eurozone
53.0
Global PMI
52.4
TWN
52.7MEX
51.7
KOR
50.4
JPN
53.9
VNM
51.3
IDN
50.1
ZAF
50.3
AUS
47.9
BRA
50.6
CAN
53.3
CHN
48.0
IND
51.3
RUS
48.3
SAU
57.0
USA
55.5
Global PMI Monthly Change
<−5.0 −4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 >5.0
PMI Change ImprovingDeteriorating
Eurozone
−0.2
Global PMI
−0.8
TWN
−2.0MEX
−0.3
KOR
0.6
JPN
−1.6
VNM
0.3
IDN
−0.4
ZAF
−1.2
AUS
−0.7
BRA
0.2
CAN
0.4
CHN
−0.5
IND
−1.2
RUS
−0.2
SAU
−1.6
USA
−1.6
Purchase Managers Index (Manufacturing) − China, Japan, USA, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Australia
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
3040506070
3040506070
Business Conditions Contracting
Business Conditions Expanding

Global PMI Chart
This is an alternate view of the global PMI reports. Here, we look
at all the various PMI data series in a single chart and watch their
evolution over time.
Red numbers indicate contraction (as estimated by PMI) while
green numbers indicate expansion.
Mar12
Apr12
May12
Jun12
Jul12
Aug12
Sep12
Oct12
Nov12
Dec12
Jan13
Feb13
Mar13
Apr13
May13
Jun13
Jul13
Aug13
Sep13
Oct13
Nov13
Dec13
Jan14
Feb14
Mar14
Australia
India
Indonesia
Vietnam
Taiwan
China
Korea
Japan
South Africa
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
Russia
United Kingdom
Greece
Germany
France
Italy
Czech Republic
Spain
Poland
Ireland
Netherlands
Eurozone
Brazil
Mexico
Canada
United States
Global PMI 51.6 51.3 50.3 49.7 48.8 48.7 48.7 48.9 49.6 50.0 51.5 50.9 51.2 50.4 50.6 50.6 50.8 51.6 51.8 52.1 53.1 53.3 53.0 53.2 52.4
53.3 54.1 52.5 52.5 51.4 51.5 51.1 51.0 52.8 56.1 55.8 54.3 54.6 52.1 52.3 52.0 53.7 53.1 52.8 51.8 54.7 55.0 53.7 57.1 55.5
52.4 53.3 54.7 54.8 53.1 53.0 52.4 51.4 50.4 50.4 50.5 51.7 49.3 50.1 53.2 52.4 52.0 52.1 54.2 55.6 55.3 53.5 51.7 52.9 53.3
53.8 56.3 55.2 55.9 55.2 55.1 54.4 55.5 55.6 57.1 55.0 53.4 52.2 51.7 51.7 51.3 49.7 50.8 50.0 50.2 51.9 52.6 54.0 52.0 51.7
51.1 49.3 49.3 48.5 48.7 49.3 49.8 50.2 52.2 51.1 53.2 52.5 51.8 50.8 50.4 50.4 48.5 49.4 49.9 50.2 49.7 50.5 50.8 50.4 50.6
47.7 45.9 45.1 45.1 46.5 46.3 46.1 45.4 46.8 46.1 47.9 47.9 46.8 46.7 48.3 48.8 50.3 51.4 51.1 51.3 51.6 52.7 54.0 53.2 53.0
49.6 49.0 47.6 48.9 48.9 49.7 50.7 48.9 48.2 49.6 50.2 49.0 48.0 48.2 48.7 48.8 50.8 53.5 55.8 54.4 56.8 57.0 54.8 55.2 53.7
51.5 50.1 51.2 53.1 53.9 50.9 51.8 52.1 52.4 51.4 50.3 51.5 48.6 48.0 49.7 50.3 51.0 52.0 52.7 54.9 52.4 53.5 52.8 52.9 55.5
49.2 48.9 48.0 49.7 48.3 47.0 47.3 48.2 48.5 48.6 48.9 48.0 46.9 48.0 49.3 51.1 52.6 53.1 53.4 54.4 53.2 55.4 55.9 54.0
44.5 43.5 42.0 41.1 42.3 44.0 44.5 43.5 45.3 44.6 46.1 46.8 44.2 44.7 48.1 50.0 49.8 51.1 50.7 50.9 48.6 50.8 52.2 52.5 52.8
49.7 47.6 49.4 49.5 48.7 48.0 47.2 48.2 46.0 48.3 49.9 49.1 49.5 50.1 51.0 52.0 53.9 53.4 54.5 55.4 54.7 55.9 56.5 55.5
47.9 43.8 44.8 44.6 44.3 43.6 45.7 45.5 45.1 46.7 47.8 45.8 44.5 45.5 47.3 49.1 50.4 51.3 50.8 50.7 51.4 53.3 53.1 52.3 52.4
46.7 46.9 44.7 45.2 43.4 46.0 42.7 43.7 44.5 44.6 42.9 43.9 44.0 44.4 46.4 48.4 49.7 49.7 49.8 49.1 48.4 47.0 49.3 49.7 52.1
48.4 46.2 45.2 45.0 43.0 44.7 47.4 46.0 46.8 46.0 49.8 50.3 49.0 48.1 49.4 48.6 50.7 51.8 51.1 51.7 52.7 54.3 56.5 54.8 53.7
41.3 40.7 43.1 40.1 41.9 42.1 42.2 41.0 41.8 41.4 41.7 43.0 42.1 45.0 45.3 45.4 47.0 48.7 47.5 47.3 49.2 49.6 51.2 51.3 49.7
51.9 50.2 45.9 48.4 45.2 49.6 48.1 47.3 49.2 51.2 50.5 47.9 48.6 50.2 51.3 52.9 54.8 57.2 56.3 56.5 58.4 57.3 56.7 56.2 55.3
50.8 52.9 53.2 51.0 52.0 51.0 52.4 52.9 52.3 50.0 52.0 52.0 50.8 50.6 50.4 51.7 49.2 49.4 49.4 51.8 49.4 48.8 48.0 48.5 48.3
52.3 50.2 51.4 49.4 50.0 52.2 52.5 51.6 53.1 54.0 53.5 52.3 51.3 51.1 51.2 49.8 50.9 54.0 53.3 55.0 53.5 52.7 53.4 51.7
59.8 57.0 58.9 58.1 58.5 58.9 58.0 57.3 56.6 56.6 57.5 58.7 56.7 57.1 58.7 59.7 58.6 57.0
47.1 49.5 47.4 49.1 53.6 49.3 50.5 50.4 51.6 52.2 56.5 49.1 51.5 51.6 50.5 50.3 51.5 50.3
51.1 50.7 50.7 49.9 47.9 47.7 48.0 46.9 46.5 45.0 47.7 48.5 50.4 51.1 51.5 52.3 50.7 52.2 52.5 54.2 55.1 55.2 56.6 55.5 53.9
52.0 51.9 51.0 47.2 49.4 47.5 45.7 47.4 48.2 50.1 49.9 50.9 52.0 52.6 51.1 49.4 47.2 47.5 49.7 50.2 50.4 50.8 50.9 49.8 50.4
53.1 53.3 50.4 50.2 50.1 49.2 49.8 50.2 50.6 51.5 50.4 50.4 51.6 50.4 49.2 48.2 47.7 50.1 50.2 50.9 50.8 50.5 49.5 48.5 48.0
54.1 51.2 50.5 49.2 47.5 46.1 45.6 47.8 47.4 50.6 51.5 50.2 51.2 50.7 47.1 49.5 48.6 50.0 52.0 53.0 53.4 55.2 55.5 54.7 52.7
49.5 48.3 46.6 43.6 47.9 49.2 48.7 50.5 49.3 50.1 48.3 50.8 51.0 48.8 46.4 48.5 49.4 51.5 51.5 50.3 51.8 52.1 51.0 51.3
50.8 50.5 48.1 50.2 51.4 51.6 50.5 51.9 51.5 50.7 49.7 50.5 51.3 51.7 51.6 51.0 50.7 48.5 50.2 50.9 50.3 50.9 51.0 50.5 50.1
54.7 54.9 54.8 55.0 52.9 52.8 52.8 52.9 53.7 54.7 53.2 54.2 52.0 51.0 50.1 50.3 50.1 48.5 49.6 49.6 51.3 50.7 51.4 52.5 51.3
49.5 43.9 42.4 47.2 40.3 45.3 44.1 45.2 44.3 44.3 40.2 45.6 44.4 36.7 43.8 49.6 42.0 46.4 51.7 53.2 47.7 47.6 46.7 48.6 47.9

OECD International Trade Data
The OECD calculates import and export values for member coun-
tries. Figures are seasonally adjusted and measured in billions of US
dollars. Red lines indicate exports, while blue lines indicate imports.
Green lines indicate the zero level.
The top part of the graph shows the changes in exports and imports
on a year-over-year basis, while the bottom part shows the diﬀerence
between exports and imports for that given month (i.e. the trade bal-
ance)
China
YoYChange
−40
−20
0
20
40
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−10
0
10
20
30
40
US
YoYChange
−60
−40
−20
0
20
40
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−80
−60
−40
−20
0
Canada
YoYChange
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−2
0
2
4
6
Germany
YoYChange
−40
−20
0
20
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
JapanYoYChange
−30
−20
−10
0
10
20
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−10
−5
0
5
10
South Korea
YoYChange
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
India
YoYChange
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−15
−10
−5
0
Australia
YoYChange
−6
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
Eurozone
YoYChange
−80
−60
−40
−20
0
20
40
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−10
0
10
20

Canadian Indicators
Unemployment rate
Percent
67891011
median: 7.40
Mar 2014: 6.90
Permits issued for Dwelling
YoYPercentChange
−50050100
Mar 2014: −10.86
Retail Sales
YoYPercentChange
−50510
median: 4.29
Jan 2014: 2.84
Inflation rate
YoYPercentChangeinCPI
−1012345
median: 1.68
Jan 2014: 0.33
Consumer Confidence
60708090100
median: 94.50
Feb 2014: 85.70
Housing Prices
YoYPercentChange
−5051015
median: 1.86
Jan 2014: 1.28
Money Supply (M2)
YoYPercentChange
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
051015
median: 5.88
Feb 2014: 6.02
PMI: Manufacturing
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
40506070
median: 56.60
Mar 2014: 53.30
Retail Sales Performance
YoYPercentChange
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−50510
median: 4.29
Jan 2014: 2.84

European Indicators
Unemployment Rates
Percentage
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
05101520
Business Employment Expectations
Index
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−40−20010
Volume of Retail Sales (ex−cars)
Index(Jan2010=100)
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
60708090110130
Manufacturing Turnover
Index(Jan2010=100)
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
60708090110130
Building Permits
Index(Jan2010=100)
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0100200300400500
Industrial Orderbook Levels
Index
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−60−40−20020
Country Employment
Expect.
Unempl.
(%)
Bond Yields
(%)
Retail
Turnover
Manufacturing
Turnover
Building
Permits
Industry
Orderbook
PMI
Series Dates Mar 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Feb 2014 Feb 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Mar 2014
France -12.1 10.4 2.25 104.5 109.1 68.37 -20.8 52.1
Germany -0.1 5.1 1.56 103.5 113.5 151.8 -8.7 53.7
United Kingdom 6.4 7.1 2.37 103.84 104.67 NA 3.6 55.3
Italy -6.2 13 3.65 92.37 98.24 NA -21.8 52.4
Greece -7.9 27.5 7.7 71.17 101.57 13.31 -24.4 49.7
Spain -10 25.6 3.56 81.1 99.56 43.48 -22.6 52.8
Eurozone -3.1 10.6 2.93 99.23 109.51 NA -15 NA

Government Bond YieldsLongTermYields%
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0246810
Economic Sentiment
Index
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
60708090110130
Consumer Confidence
Index
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−100−60−20020
Production of Total Industry: Dec 2013
<−10.0%−7.5%−5.0%−2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5%>10.0%
YoY % Difference increasingdecreasing
AUT
0.44%
DEU
3.76%
ESP
2.17%
FIN
−3.54%
FRA
0.30%
GBR
1.89%
GRC
−1.77%
HUN
4.56%
IRL
−6.88%
ITA
−0.33%
NOR
−2.71%
POL
5.16%
RUS
0.09%
SWE
−3.00%
Inflation: Dec 2013
AUT
1.9%
DEU
1.4%
ESP
0.3%
FIN
1.6%
FRA
0.7%
GBR
2.0%
GRC
−1.7%
HUN
0.4%
IRL
0.2%
ITA
0.7%
NOR
2.0%
POL
0.7%
SWE
0.1%
<−1.0%0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% >7.0%
YoY % Change in Prices
PMI: March 2014
<40.042.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0>60.0
Steady ExpandingContracting
BRA
50.6
CAN
53.3
DEU
53.7
ESP
52.8
FRA
52.1
GBR
55.3
GRC
49.7
IRL
55.5
ITA
52.4
MEX
51.7
POL
54.0
SAU
57.0
TUR
51.7
USA
55.5
PMI Change: Feb − Mar
<−5.0−4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 >5.0
PMI Change ImprovingDeteriorating
CAN
0.4
DEU
−1.1
ESP
0.3
FRA
2.4
GBR
−0.9
GRC
−1.6
IRL
2.6
ITA
0.1
POL
−1.9
TUR
−1.7
USA
−1.6

Chinese Indicators
Tracking the Chinese economy is a tricky. As reported in the Finan-
cial Times, Premier Li Keqiang, confided to US officials in 2007 that
gross domestic product was “man made” and “for reference only”. In-
stead, he suggested that it was much more useful to focus on three alter-
native indicators: electricity consumption, rail cargo volumes and bank
lending (still tracking down that last one). We also include the PMI
- which is an official version put out by the Chinese government and
differs slightly from an HSBC version. Finally we include the Shanghai
Composite Index as a measure of stock performance.
Manufacturing PMI
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
4045505560
Mar 2014: 48.00
Shanghai Composite Index
IndexValue(MonthlyHigh/Low)
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
100020003000400050006000
Apr 2014: 2105.24
Electricity Generated
100MillionKWH(logscale)
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1000200030005000
Feb 2014: 4081.00
Electricity Generated
Long Term Trend
Short Term Average
Consumer Confidence Index
Index
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
98100102104106108
median: 102.75
Feb 2014: 103.10
Exports
YoYPercentChange
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−20020406080
median: 20.00
Feb 2014: −18.13
Retail Sales Change
YoYPercentChange
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
101520
median: 13.20
Feb 2014: 11.80

Global Climate Change
Temperature and precipitation data are taken from the US National
Climatic Data Center and presented as the average monthly anomaly
for the previous 6 months from February 2014. Anomalies are deﬁned
as the diﬀerence from the average value over the period from 1961-1990
for precipitation and 1971-2000 for temperature.
Trailing 6 month Temperature Anomalies from February 2014
<−4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 >4.0
Anomalies in Celcius WarmerCooler Anomalies in Celcius
−4 −2 0 2 4
Trailing 6 month Precipitation Anomalies from February 2014
<−40.0 −30.0 −20.0 −10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 >40.0
Anomalies in millimeters WetterDrier Anomalies in millimeters
−40 −20 0 20 40

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