The presentation talks about the megatrends and the game changers in the IT industry for 2012-14 1. Consumerization/mobile 2. Data 3. IT as a service 4. Risk Management

1. IT Israel:
Megatrends
Game changers
OVERVIEW
STKI Summit 2012
Dr. Jimmy Schwarzkopf

2. Did we see this coming ? What will happen next ?
2

3. Example of what can happen…… if you behave like an ostrich…..
3

4. Example of what can happen…… if you behave like an ostrich…..
4

5. Re-invent ourselves or else … “BLUE OCEAN”
5

6. Re-invent ourselves or else … “BLUE OCEAN”
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7. WICKED problems : DESIGN THINKING
7

8. Design Thinking: to create experiences
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9. INNOVATE: the business of IT and the business of the business
ENTREPRENEURSHIP is the alertness to forecast
market conditions
ALERTNESS is the ability to perceive new economic
opportunities that no one has yet recognized
9

10. -“Every man is guilty of all the good he didn’t do”- Voltaire 1770s
10

11. -“Every man is guilty of all the good he didn’t do”- Voltaire 1770s
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12. Israeli Enterprise 2012 : shift from cost-cutting to innovation
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13. New & Different Business Demands for IT Services
13

14. Two point roadmap: create value and optimize costs
Business demand
for IT services
Innovate &
more value
Optimize &
cut costs
IT budget
Time
14

15. Two point roadmap: create value and optimize costs
Business demand
for IT services
Innovate &
more value
Optimize &
cut costs
IT budget
Time
15

16. IT toolbox: GAME-CHANGING technologies
16

17. IT toolbox: GAME-CHANGING technologies
17

18. STKI: only 4 Megatrends for 2012-2017
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19. STKI: only 4 Megatrends for 2012-2017
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20. Mega-trend #1 of 21st century
CONSUMERIZATION:
empowerment of people collaborating via
connected mobile devices
20

21. 2012 game changers :
• New Economic playbox
• New Diffusion of technology model
• New IT clients
• New rules for the “web”
21

22. New economic playbox :
Service
Goods-Based
Economy
Economy
The Experience
Economy
Agrarian
Economy
22

23. Experience Economy > Age of the Customer
From 1900 to 1960, Age of Manufacturing , if you owned a factory,
you owned the market.
From 1960 to 2000, Age of Distribution, if you owned the distribution
channels, you owned the market.
From 2000 to 2011, Age of Information, if you owned the information,
you owned the market.
From 2011, Age of the Customer, if you engage the customer, you own
the market
23

24. “the NEW experience economy”
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25. “the NEW experience economy”
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26. New IT client: Chief Marketing Officer (CMO)
There are only 3 reasons why you choose to
buy a product or a service :
1. It's the cheapest
2. It's unique
3. You're sold on marketing!!
26

27. Who is getting IT services? What do they want?
1970-2010: 2010- :
Logically structured thinking; Unstructured approach to tasks
analyzing and controlling ('multitasking'); emotional
processes. responses; social being
IT Clients: IT Clients:
• Finance • Sales
• Logistics • Marketing
• HR • Consumer
• Transactional core
27

28. technology will shape who we are and our “new economy”
a new economy that’s vast, automatic, and invisible
thereby bringing the biggest change since the Industrial Revolution
28

29. Rules 1994: the web Rules 2012: the social web
From “anonymity” to “real identities”
From “wisdom of crowds” to “wisdom of friends”
From “receivers” to “broadcasters” of information
29

30. What is happening to the diffusion of IT technologies?
30

31. 2012 game changers :
• Consumerization of IT (CoIT)
• Bring your own Device (BYOD)
• Changing Client Architectures
31

32. The Consumerization of IT:
Real Companies and The Next Generation of Business
32

33. The Consumerization of IT:
Real Companies and The Next Generation of Business
33

34. Things my grandson taught me:
• Touch screens change the way we see the world
He assumes that any screen is a touch screen
He prefers to navigate surfaces to retrieve information instead of diving
into nested structures.
• Voice Interface
Devices should understand us, and pull up some good animal videos
when we ask.
• Linear TV is dead
TV is about watching what they want, when they want
• Games are social
Sharing playing experience
• The alive web will be huge:
You call people to share an experience,
Turntable.fm
Google’s Hangouts
MeetingBurner
34

35. Things my grandson taught me:
• Touch screens change the way we see the world
He assumes that any screen is a touch screen
He prefers to navigate surfaces to retrieve information instead of diving
into nested structures.
• Voice Interface
Devices should understand us, and pull up some good animal videos
when we ask.
• Linear TV is dead
TV is about watching what they want, when they want
• Games are social
Sharing playing experience
• The alive web will be huge:
You call people to share an experience,
Turntable.fm
Google’s Hangouts
MeetingBurner
35

36. When will we have usable “Industrial Information” Machines ?
It takes time not only for people to adopt
technologies into their daily routines but also
for technologists to figure out
how to make things USABLE (experience)
33 years
understand users:
how they want to drive
The Austin 7 was produced
from 1922 through to 1939
The Karl Benz Patent Motorwagen 1885,. by the Austin Motor Company.
36

37. The rule: +/-30 years
Specs aren’t important, the sum is more than the whole of their parts.
Specs are tactical decisions in order to execute a larger strategy.
What is ultimately important is the experience.
37

38. The rule: +/-30 years
Specs aren’t important, the sum is more than the whole of their parts.
Specs are tactical decisions in order to execute a larger strategy.
What is ultimately important is the experience.
38

39. UX Revolution (experience) – Touch / Sound(Voice) / Move Era
39

40. 2012: Sound/Voice is in
40

41. 2012: Face recognition is in
41

42. Prof. Clayton Christensen: Disruptive Innovation Model
T1 T2
42

43. What do people want ?
43

44. Desktop and Mobile ecosystems begin to converge
“BYOD : bring your own device"
employees asserting control over the technology they use for work
44

45. What about Productivity Software for non-wintel machines?
Office 2015
ARM W8
45

46. What do people prefer?
The web ….. is still a computer-centric place:
1. Computers are used to design, build, and
create content for the Internet
2. BUT the primary access devices to access
the Internet will be smartphones and
tablets.
46

47. Israel (expected end 2012):
Wintel: Q42011 compared to Q42010
Desktop PCs: -25% Notebooks: -35%
47

48. Now for the world….
• Android dominates today: 40 percent carry
an Android OS-based phone, and 40% intend
to purchase one in the next six months.
• Apple’s iOS : Twenty-five percent own an
iPhone, but 35 percent will buy one in the
next six months.
• Which mobile OS will lose? Only 22 percent
of consumers intend to buy either a Java ME,
HPWebOS (free/open source), BlackBerry or
Windows Mobile-based phone ?
48

49. Mobility v2: WORK is not a place you go, but a thing you do
49

50. Four screens of convergence: TV, PC, mobile devices and in-car
• We want to be connected 24X7
• Each of these screens is useful during our
day and each is connected to the 'cloud'
• IT should allow us to use the same
business (IT supports ALL) and
entertainment applications
50

51. Can IT support all devices (at same time) ?
• Employees will use as many computers and
mobile devices as they wish.
• Automatically keep their data in sync with a
backup copy .
• Solutions should be enterprise class :
• Secure; reliable; maintainable
• integrated to critical back-office systems
51

52. 2012 game changers :
Mobility and the new
application world
User interface/gamification
52

53. Mobile Apps: The value of mobile is in the apps
"specialized local apps
running in conjunction with
cloud-based services
(private/public)
in
location aware devices “-
53

54. What I think is happening:
storage
increase X2
Why waste all that every 12 months
Increase in power, storage and network capacity per dollar
power and storage?
Only so it is easier for IT ?
Processor power
increase X2
every 18 months
Networks
increase slowly
3G > 4G
TIME
54

55. Mobile computing have made us :
PC Internet
Web/Cloud
55

56. Mobile computing have made us :
Mobile-computing devices has made us impatient and hungry for
PC Internet
information, entertainment or something to stave off boredom.
The implications of this are :
• mobile interactions have to happen quickly and frequently
• users are unlikely to wait a minute for content to load
• if repeat visits do not yield new information or experiences,
Web/Cloud
users will probably abandon the app or site for more dynamic
ones.
Post-PCs Internet
Apps
56

57. less to do with the worker and more to do with changes in the way that people work
Client/Server V2
1. Most apps work on/off line
Terminals V 2 2. Most of the time connected
WEB/Browser client 3. Uses cloud/local applications
2 types of applications:
1. Off-line: processing and
storage local
2. Always connected:
Client/Server V1
browser based applications 2 types of applications:
1. Off-line: processing and storage local
Terminals V1 2. Always connected : data and
Always connected processing @server; GUI++ @client
I/O only at the local
ADVANCES/COST
1. Communications/networking
2. Processor/storage
3. Power /battery
57

58. Native or HTML5 ? (funny the terminology)
58

59. Two types of “personal computing” (based on experience?)
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60. Two types of “personal computing” (based on experience?)
60

61. Will we see Apps for enterprises?
61

62. Changes in the importance of the UX:
62

63. Will social game methodologies reinvent how we do business ?
• Social games create worlds where users:
• Interact AND set targets
• form teams to achieve goals
• provide real time feedback to each other.
63

64. What are we going to do “mobile” in 2012-3 ?
64

65. What are we going to do “mobile” in 2012-3 ?
65

66. 66

67. 2012 game changers :
E-bizz everywhere
Mobile payments
Context-based services
67

68. E-bizz everywhere but differently
• Mobile: It's not a matter of
keeping up anymore; it's a
matter of staying in business
• “FRIENDS” Pricing: Turn
customers into a sales force by
offering volume markdowns
• Video Commerce: Ability to
buy from within a product or
other video
• Search : The days of navigation You want to buy
are really ending, search is in
• Social Business: User ratings
You want to choose
and reviews on online products
have to be mobile-ready
68

69. Context based applications (where you are and what you’re doing)
Company sends
“future rewards”
CONTEXT
69

70. how to influence in-store, online and mobile shopping ?
SHOPKICK automatically recognizes when someone walks into a store.
“kickbucks” to the user for:
walking into a retail store
trying on clothes
scanning a barcode
other actions
“kickbucks” redeemed across all partner stores for
gift card rewards
Facebook credits
special discounts
SHOPKICK expects to pass 1 billion product views this year
70

71. 2012 game changers :
Social-Driven Enterprise
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72. The Social Media Universe is Expanding
800 MM+ monthly active users 15MM+ users
800MM+ monthly users visit site 15MM+ users
232MM+ monthly active users 7MM+ users
230MM+ users 2MM+ users
135MM+ users 2MM+ users
115MM+ subscribers 2MM+ users
62MM+ users 1.5MM+ users
51MM+ users 500K+ users
20MM+ blogs 100K+ users
More people on more social networks than ever before
72 EC

73. The Social Media Universe is Expanding
800 MM+ monthly active users 15MM+ users
800MM+ monthly users visit site 15MM+ users
232MM+ monthly active users 7MM+ users
230MM+ users 2MM+ users
135MM+ users 2MM+ users
115MM+ subscribers 2MM+ users
62MM+ users 1.5MM+ users
51MM+ users 500K+ users
20MM+ blogs 100K+ users
More people on more social networks than ever before
73 EC

74. Facebook as the ultimate IT-Marketing function?
74

75. Facebook’s Mission ? Make the World More Open and Connected ?
75

76. Facebook’s Mission ? Make the World More Open and Connected ?
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77. Facebook’s Mission ? Make the World More Open and Connected ?
77

78. Facebook will hit the ONE BILLION active users in 2012-13
• Facebook Insights : Page owners can access
information about their fans’ activities.
• “People are talking about this” :know what posts
have proven the most compelling and interactive
• “Virality”: divides the number of “people talking
about this” by the reach (the number of people
who actually saw the content),.
• fans are 40 to 150 times more likely to consume in
their own news feeds than on the actual fan page
• Facebook utilizes an algorithm:
• The relevancy of content is determined by :
• how many times it is liked
• shared
• commented on, etc..
• The most relevant content for each user finds its
way onto that particular user’s news feed.
• When fans of a company interact with branded
content, it can then be passed on to their friends
and their friends’ friends
78

79. Are you going there?
79

80. Amazon as the “ultimate” social enterprise……
80

81. Social Computing Adoption Curve
What began as
play and making
friends is now
driving business
growth
81

82. Challenge for IT : social interactions are everywhere
• revisit business processes and
the systems that implement
them.
• look across channels to re-
define interactions.
• look at new forms of data
generated by those interactions
and evaluate the potential
insights they can get from
them.
• revisit the organizational
structures that perpetuate the
separation of channels.
• update the metrics that define
success for customer
interactions.
82

83. Location aware apps moving into context based apps
Who?
What?
Where?
When?
83
83

84. “CONTEXT”: definitions
Context enables the services that make sense right at the point
where an action takes place.
Context allows organizations to shift their focus from insight:
• to actionable insight
• to insight at the point of action
84

85. context-sensitive service discovery applications
85

86. In the future: social and context “enterprise” applications
86

87. Mega-trend #2 of 21st century
Data is in the driver’s seat
87

88. Data issues:
88

89. concept known as the “personal data locker” ($$$$$)
89

90. concept known as the “personal data locker” ($$$$$)
90

91. 2012 game changers :
DATA Goes To Work:
“New” Data Management
Analysis Methods and Tools
(Big Data)
91

92. Information/data explosion ?
92

93. Why BIG DATA ?
• The modern human animal spends upwards of 11
hours out of every 24 in a state of constant
consumption of information from the net:
• we have grown obese on sugar, fat, and flour
• we became gluttons for texts, instant messages, emails,
RSS feeds, downloads, videos, status updates, and
tweets.
• Just as too much junk food can lead to obesity, too
much junk information can lead to cluelessness
• BIG DATA “should” help a company understand
this information glut and is essential in order to be
smart, productive, and sane.
93

94. What is BIG DATA (Definitions) ?
• "BIG DATA is data processing that exceeds the processing capacity of
traditional systems. The data is too big, moves too fast, or simply
doesn't fit traditional architectures “
• BIG DATA processing is designed to economically extract value from:
• high velocity (from Batch to Streaming; over 10 M rows per sec)
• very large volumes (from TERA to PETA; usually over 15 TB)
• wide variety (from Structured to Unstructured)
94

95. BIG DATA Tools are based on the CAP or Brewer's theorem
It is impossible for a distributed computer system to
simultaneously provide the following guarantees:
1. Consistency: all nodes see the same data at the same time
2. Availability: guarantee that every request receives a
response about whether it was successful or failed
3. Partition tolerance: the system continues to operate despite
arbitrary message loss
95

96. NoSQL Systems vs. RDBMS
• The problem with RDBMS’s is that their methods for:
• Vertical scaling: adding more expensive hardware to a single
node is very expensive
• Horizontal scaling: adding more nodes with cheap hardware
is very clumsy
• NoSQL products try to solve CAP theorem constraints:
• Have the ability to scale horizontally as a primary design
objective
• They sacrifice sophistication and control at the database level
for the ability to scale easily and efficiently
• Based on the needs of the application the relationship
between the three attributes represent a
spectrum, not a discrete relationship
• We will see new products that:
• “Bridge Technologies” : mix old and new database forms
• advances from the new to re-invigorate the old
96

97. Traditional and Big Data Approaches.. the difference:
97

98. BIG DATA example: marketing cars
Want to sell an
Alfa Romeo car
To this person
98

99. BIG DATA example: marketing cars
99

100. BIG DATA example: marketing cars
100

101. Big Data example: Sentiment Analysis:
• What do customers think of my
product?
• Are they happy with the services?
• How do I impact my customers’
perception of me?
• What do customers like about my
competitors?
101

102. Most common BIG DATA application: know your customer
102

103. Example of a “BIG DATA” platform
CRM Data
POS Data Social Media
Advanced Distilled Insight
search and - Spending habits
analysis - Social relationships
- Buying trends
103

104. We will see new “analytical tools” that are:
The focus is verbal, processing Focuses on the visual, and
information in an analytical and processes information in an
sequential way, looking first at the intuitive and simultaneous way,
pieces then putting them together to looking first at the whole picture
get the whole. then the details.
non-verbal and intuitive,
verbal and analytical
using pictures rather than words.
104

105. The Next Frontier? Storage Management
105

106. 2012 game changers :
Emergence of the
Common Data Platform
106

107. Architectures : “Data Platform” as opposed to “Big Data”
Big Data Architectures: scale for variety, velocity and volume.
Data Platform Architectures: scale for multiple usage of same data by
many applications
 concept of data ownership is no longer valid
 users will be creating, consuming, and sharing data with each other
 data governance, data responsibility as well as data accountability
 data exchange (MDM): where shared data can be published and accessed
 complexity : storage and access
 data valuation ($$$): ways that data is stored, shared, secured and destroyed.
107

108. Need for a common data management platform …..
108

109. Mega-trend #3 of 21st century
109

110. Do what Clients want?
110

111. Do what Clients want?
111

112. 2012 game changers :
Buy or Develop
ERP/core solutions
112

113. Do what you do best (specialize) buy the rest (trade)
-”Comparative Advantage”-
-”A country has a comparative advantage in
the production of a good or service that it
produces at a lower opportunity cost than its
trading partners”-
1810
113

114. Packaged Software vs. Custom-Developed Systems
Source: ComputerEconomics 2011
37%
Large Orgs
Percentage of application functionality from
custom-developed systems 30%
Midsize
Large Orgs 63%
Percentage of application functionality from
commercial software packages Midsize 70%
114

115. Gap Analysis vs. System Analysis
Client needs
Gap Analysis ~90% quite happy
17% maintenance =
somebody else headache
Demands mng, design,
develop, testing Different needs  Gap Analysis
Time Organizations attention time:
• Project mng
• Regulation
• ~17% Maintenance
115

116. Are ERP Systems a “fad” ?
Started the field of knowledge called:
Accounting Systems And Merchant Arithmetic:
o Barter Systems
o Exchange Systems
o Profit (Revenue Recognition Systems)
ERP (or by any other name) started to be “computerized”
in Israel during the early 80’s
• Between 1998 and 2010 the first wave of “enterprises”
moved into ERP packages:
1. Most of these enterprises will be buying
“industry specific” modules in 2011-2014
• Now the second wave (smaller companies) is starting:
1. Local packages with vertical core systems
2. Smaller international packages
116

117. 2012 game changers :
Industrialization of IT:
new and “efficient” IT
117

118. The new IT
Client/user
Packaged
Application
118

119. The new IT
Client/user
119

120. Building of a lean IT “bunker” based on …….. ?
120

121. Bunker Architectures can be “private clouds” by architecture
121

122. More and more usage of Virtual Desktops
122

123. 2012 game changers :
Private, Public
and
Hybrid Cloud
Architectures
123

124. Products and Services in IT
124

125. 5 types: Enterprise Clouds
125

126. Super Hybrid Clouds : can IT handle it ?
IT’s challenge becomes:
• integration
• identity management
• data translation between the core and multitenant public cloud
• orchestration for processes connecting private and public clouds
126

127. Mega-trend #4 of 21st century
RISK MANAGEMENT:
127

128. 2012 game changers :
IT Security Platforms
Cyber Crime
128

129. Your Text here Your Text here
Shahar Maor’s work Copyright 2012 @STKI Do not remove source or attribution from any graphic or portion of graphic 129

130. Cyber warfare/terror: “government”- responsibility and regulation
130

131. IT security (Cyber Crime): Enterprise responsibility
131

132. 2012 game changers :
Business Continuity
132

133. Are you as prepared as in Y2K ?
133

134. 2012 game changers :
Other Risks:
• Project Management
• Quality Assurance
• Roll-out
• Version Management/Production
• others
134

135. Forrester’s CEO George Colony: Vendors of the future
135

136. Conclusion: part 1
136

137. 137