Jari --future workforce pa1. presents
Riding
the
Waves
of
Change
with
Our
Future
Workforce
January
18,
2013
Delivered
by
Joyce
L
Gioia,
MBA,
CMC,
CSP
The
Herman
Group
3. Agenda
• Economic & demographic trends
• Skills in demand (soft & hard)
• Near term (worst & best jobs)
• Long term (occupation growth in the US)
• Workforce trends & what to do
– Changing Worker Attitudes
– Leadership
– Lean/Innovation
– Competency
• Education (5 years/10 years from now)
• The Aging Workforce
and
out
V ideos rough
– Nevertirees Plus
ses
th
– What Older Workers Want Exerci rning!
o
– Knowledge Transfer
the
m
• Building your workforce capacity
• Gamification in recruiting and onboarding.
©
The
Herman
Group,
2013
4. Economic
Trends
• Some signs of recovery
• Unemployment is decreasing slowly
• Increasing skills shortages
(more about this later)
• Stock Market ≠
Economy . . .
• Home-shoring.
©
The
Herman
Group,
2013
.
6. The
Workforce
Age
Wave
2010
(C)
6E+06
(B)
Peak
Age
of
50
Fewer
Baby
Boomers
Workers
20
(D)
Age
30-‐45
Number
of
People
Available
to
Work
15
5E+06
55
60
45
40
25
(relaSve
comparison)
Fewer
5E+06
Workers
30
Over
Age
60
35
4E+06
(E)
65
4E+06
70
75
3E+06
5%
14% 24% 49% 70%
Percent
1935
3E+06
1
1940
2
3
1945
1950
4
1955
5
1960
6
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
1965
7
8
9
10 11 12 13
Employed
(A)
Year
People
Were
Born
Age
of
Workforce
(Profile
of
Baby
Boomers)
©
The
Herman
Group,
2013
Graph from Impending Crisis
Herman, Olivo, and Gioia (Oakhill Press) Source:
BLS
Research
7. The
Workforce
Age
Wave
2015
Fewer
6E+06
Peak
Age
of
(C)
(B)
55
Workers
25
(D)
Baby
Boomers Age
35-‐50
Number
of
People
Available
to
20
Work
(relaSve
comparison)
5E+06
60
Fewer
65
50
45
30
5E+06
Workers
Over
Age
60
35
40
4E+06
70
4E+06
(E)
75
3E+06
80
70%
3%
5%
14%
24%
49%
Percent
3E+06
1940
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1935 1945
Age
of
Workforce
1950
1985 1990 1995
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Employed
(A)
Percent
Year
People
Were
Born
Percent
Employed
orkforce
(Profile
aby
Boomers)
Age
of
W (Profile
of
B of
Baby
Boomers)
Employed
©
The
Herman
Group,
2013
Graph from Impending Crisis
Herman, Olivo, and Gioia (Oakhil Press) Source:
BLS
Research
8. Why
We
Need
to
Recruit
and
Retain
our
Workforce
Elderly and Upper Middle-age Population
Population U.S., 1970 - 2050
(millions)
140
Age 55-64 Age 65-84 Age 85+
120
2015 = 47 Million People Over Age 65
100
2030 = 71 Million People Over Age 65
80
2015
60
40
20
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Elderly
as
%
of
Total
Popula<on
9.8% 11.3% 12.6% 12.8% 13.3% 16.4% 20.1% 20.7% 20.4%
Source:
U.S.
Census
Bureau,
Data
for
2010
–
2050
projec<ons
based
on
Census
Bureau’s
“Middle
Series”
Scenario
for
fer<lity,
mortality,
and
immigra<on.
©
The
Herman
Group,
2013
9. Demographics
Trends
• 15.1% fewer people
in Gen X
• The Millennials are
challenging employers
as no other generation
• Older workers will want
to keep working.
©
The
Herman
Group,
2013.
10. Skills
Shortages
Abound
In
a
recent
DeVry
University
television
commercial,
the
narrator
states:
Nearly
half
of
US
employers
have
jobs
open
which
they
can
not
fill.
©
The
Herman
Group,
2013
11. New
Study:
2012
Aflac
WorkForces
• 49% “at least somewhat likely to look for a job this year”
• 50% say employee benefits are "very or extremely
influential on decision to leave”
• "Workers who are extremely or very satisfied with their
benefits program are 9X more likely to stay with their
employer than workers who are dissatisfied with their
benefits program.”
• 76% of employees said they'd be “at least somewhat likely
to accept a job with a more robust benefits package but
lower compensation.”
©
The
Herman
Group,
2013.
11
12. Pockets
of
Crisis
• Geography
• Occupation
• Industry.
©
The
Herman
Group,
2013.
12
13. Responses
to
Skilled
Labor
Shortages
SOURCE:
Manpower,
Inc.,
“ConfronPng
the
Talent
Crunch”.
©
The
Herman
Group,
2013
14. Exercise #1
Mind
map
the
implicaPons
of
these
demographic
changes
and
skills
shortages
on
your
community
and
your
ability
to
find
and
train
the
people
you
will
need
in
the
future.
15. So_
Skills
in
Demand
• Ability
to
embrace
change
• Learning
agility
• Adaptability/ability
to
handle
diverse
responsibiliPes
• Curiosity=>creaPvity
&
innovaPon
• Capacity
to
work
in
a
team
• Commitment
to
conPnuous
learning
(including
self-‐directed).
©
The
Herman
Group,
2013
SOURCE:
Adapted
from
“Transforming
the
Workplace:
CriPcal
Skills
and
Learning
Methods
for
the
Successful
21st
Century
Worker”
by
Sam
Herring,
2012.
16. Hard
Skills
in
Demand
• STEM
(Science,
Technology,
Engineering,
Math)
• Computer
skills
• CommunicaPons
skills
(wriPng/speaking)
• AccounPng
• Trades
(electrical,
plumbing,
carpentry,
welding)
• AutomoPve
and
RV
maintenance
and
repair.
©
The
Herman
Group,
2013
17. Best
Jobs
2012
1. So^ware
Engineer
($88,142)
2. Actuary
($88,202)
3. Human
Resources
Manager
($99,102)
4. Dental
Hygienist
($68,109)
5. Financial
Planner
($104,161)
6. Audiologist
($67,137)
7. OccupaPonal
Therapist
($72,110)
8. Online
AdverPsing
Manager
($87,255)
9. Computer
Systems
Analyst
($78,148)
10. MathemaPcian
($99,191)
SOURCE:
Forbes
Magazine,
December
2012.
©
The
Herman
Group,
2013
18. Worst
Jobs
2012
1. Lumberjack
($32,114)
2. Dairy
Farmer
($33,119)
3. Military
Personnel
($36,261)
4. Oil
Rig
Worker
($32,132)
5. Newspaper
Reporter
($35,275)
6. Server
($18,088)
7. Meter
Reader
($35,171)
8. Dishwasher
($18,044)
9. Butcher
($29,156)
10. Broadcaster
($27,324)
SOURCE:
Forbes
Magazine,
December
2012.
©
The
Herman
Group,
2013
19. OccupaSonal
Employment
ProjecSons
to
2020
OccupaSon
%
Growth
1. Registered
Nurses
26.0
2. Retail
Salespersons
16.6
3. Home
Health
Aids
69.4
4. Personal
Care
Aids
70.5
5. Office
Clerks,
General
16.6
6. Food
Prep/Serving
14.8
7. Customer
Service
Reps
15.5
8. Heavy/Tractor-‐Trailer
20.6
Truck
Drivers
9. Laborers/Freight/
15.4
Stock/Material
Movers
10.
Post-‐secondary
teachers
17.4
©
The
Herman
Group,
2013
Ranked
by
1000s
of
people
needed
SOURCE:
DOL.gov,
hkp://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm,
2012.
20. Fastest-‐Growing
OccupaSons
to
2020
OccupaSon
%
Growth
1. Personal
Care
Aids
70.5
2. Home
Health
Aids
69.4
3. Medical
Secretaries
41.3
4. Medical
Assistants
30.9
5. Registered
Nurses
26.0
6.
Physicians
and
Surgeons
24.4
7. RecepPonists/Info
Clerks
23.7
8. LPNs
and
LVNs
22.4
9. ConstrucPon
Laborers
21.3
10. Landscaping/Ground
20.9
Truck
Workers
SOURCE:
DOL.gov,
hkp://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm,
2012.
21. Exercise #2
What
do
these
job
and
career
data
mean
for
you,
your
company,
and
your
clients?
©
The
Herman
Group,
2013
22. Changing
Worker
Actudes
• Warm
Chair
AdriSon
• Corporate
Cocooning
• Life/Work
Balance
Important
• Stay
Marketable
• Corporate
Loyalty
is
Dead!
© The Herman Group, 2013.
23. Dearth
of
Leadership
• Leadership
by
Anointment
• Lack
of
Training
for
Supervisors,
Managers,
Execs
• “The
Peter
Principle”
Lives
• Many
Young
People
Don’t
Want
to
Lead.
©
The
Herman
Group,
2013.
24. Desire
to
Get
Lean
• Several
paths
– Lean
Thinking
(Womack)
– Great
Game
of
Business
(Stack)
– I-‐Power
(Gerson)
• VIP:
the
culture
must
be
ready
• Be
sure
to
include
Gainsharing!
©
The
Herman
Group,
2013
25. The
Competency
Deficit
• Public schools are not
preparing students for
work
• Myth: All students
should go to 4-yr.
college
• College costs are rising
faster than COL
• Vocational schools and
community colleges
have a large part to play.
© The Herman Group, 2013.
26. Post-‐High
School
EducaSon
Pipeline
For every 100 students entering ninth grade . . .
67 Complete High School within 4 Years
38 Enroll in College
1
26 Return to College the Fall after Freshman Year
18 Complete a Bachelor’s Degree within 6 Years
or an Associate's Degree within 3 Years
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Source: Ewell, Jones, and Kelly, Conceptualizing and Researching the Education Pipeline, National Center for
Higher Education Management Systems.
©
The
Herman
Group,
2013
27. What
works
to
keep
young
adults
in
school?
©
The
Herman
Group,
2013
28. Herman
Group
Study
for
US
Department
of
EducaSon
(OVAE)
Findings were startling. . .
– Team spirit
– Mentorship (“Adopt a-Unit” and RDCs)
– Teach instructors (mandatory 2-3 weeks)
– Unqualified support.
© The Herman Group, 2013.
30. EducaSon
2018
• Virtual
worlds
engage
students
early
• School-‐employer
partnerships
• Mentors
play
a
substanSal
role
in
growth
• Blended
learning
is
the
norm
• Schools
capitalize
on
social
networking
to
support
learning
• Alternative teaching styles are
valued.
© The Herman Group, 2013.
32. Leadership
CONNECTIONS
A Discovery and Life Options Training Program Providing
Leadership Training for Young Women
• Leadership basics and character
education
• Philanthropic leadership and civic
responsibility
• 3-Tier mentoring support
• Summer College Experience Retreat
• Intergenerational networking.
© The Herman Group, 2013.
34. Khan
Academy
Using
Technology
to
Reinvent
EducaSon
• Late 2004, hedge fund analyst Salman
Khan began tutoring his cousin
• When others asked for his help,
he decided to post the videos
on YouTube; a funny thing
happened. . .
• They liked the recordings better
than him in person.
© The Herman Group, 2013.
35. Khan
Academy
Using
Technology
to
Reinvent
EducaSon
• Demystifying complicated subjects, now
2300 courses, 10 minutes each, delivered
over 50 million lessons, daily affects
hundreds of thousands of kids
• Currently being tested in 5th and
7th grade math classes in Los Altos, CA
• Something remarkable
happens. . .
© The Herman Group, 2013.
36. Khan
Academy
Using
Technology
to
Reinvent
EducaSon
• Applies the metrics of business to education
• Flips homework and school work
• Translating into 10 languages
• A street kid in Mumbai could learn calculus
• Sponsored by Google and the Gates
Foundation―ALL FREE!
• Opportunity to affect
millions!
© The Herman Group, 2013.
37. Youth
Career
Café
• Located in the mall
• One-stop for young people
ages 14-21
• School system staffed
• Career exploration
• Classes―soft/hard skills
• Resume advice
• Mock interviews.
© The Herman Group, 2013.
38. EducaSon
2023
• Much
student
learning
takes
place
in
virtual
worlds
(3D)
• Many
free
sites
like
Coursera
and
Khan
offer
opportuniSes
to
learn
from
the
masters,
supported
by
sponsors
• Employers
pay
100%
of
college
for
promising
young
people
• Everyone
has
a
mentor
by
age
12
• Bricks
mortar
has
taken
a
backseat
to
online
learning
• Colleges have discovered the
formula for engaging students and
lose few of them.
© The Herman Group, 2013.
39. Exercise #3
Imagine
what
school
will
be
like
for
your
grandchildren
or
great
grandchildren
in
2030?
Describe
.
.
.
• The
school
building
(real
or
virtual)
• The
teachers
(human
or
virtual)
• What
students
will
be
learning
• How
students
will
submit
assignments
• Any
other
details
you
want
to
add.
You
have
10
minutes.
Have
fun!
40. The
Aging
Workforce
• Government, energy,
insurance, and healthcare
face high %s retiring
• Understand that 70 is the
new 50
• 63% of workers in their 50s
view phased retirement as
important
• Compared to 50% in their
60s and
• Only 36% in their 70s.
© The Herman Group, 2013.
41. The
Aging
Workforce
Neverrees
(worldwide)
• Wealthy population segment
that never wants to stop
working
• Why? B/c they define their
worth by their work
• Opportunity to capitalize on
this group
• Build facilities near assisted
living housing
• Much more concerned with
leaving a legacy.
© The Herman Group, 2013.
42. What
Older
Workers
Want
• Phased retirement
• Job sharing or PT or temp or project work
• Flexible work schedules
• Time off, when they want/need it
• Opportunity to make
a difference
• Must feel like they are
contributing to the
greater good.
© The Herman Group, 2013.
43. Knowledge
Transfer
• Start the conversation early
• Make a list of what you need to know
• Ask for suggestions
• Use technology (audio/video)
• Honor your long-tenured
workers
• Make them feel good
about sharing.
© The Herman Group, 2013.
44. Building
your
Workforce
Capacity
• Start early; elementary school is not too soon
• Stay with them at every level (adopt-a-class,
assemblies, etc.)
• Talk with vocational and college professors to insure
that they are preparing young people for your jobs
(curricula)
• Engage teachers over the summer
• Develop relationships with
the department chairs so
that you get 1st pick
• Offer mentoring and
mock interviews.
© The Herman Group, 2013.
45. GamificaSon
• The application of game elements, game
processes, and game design to non-game
system and processes
• Elementary games like
scavenger hunts and passports
to be stamped by executives,
used in onboarding
• Harrah’s has used poker
to recruit (MBA
Poker
Championships)
• Games
make
tradiPonal
processes
more
fun—
important
for
Millennials.
© The Herman Group, 2013.
48. To reach me,
call 336-210-3548
or e-mail me at
joyce@hermangroup.com
or Skype me at
JoyceGioia.
20% of onsite book sales will benefit
your local workforce foundation.
50. Y
E
S
+
+
+
+
+
Carpe
Futurum!
Seize the Future!
© The Herman Group, 2013.