The document discusses the economic crisis and recovery in Spain from 2008-present. It describes the crisis response as initially focusing on fiscal stimulus but shifting in 2010 to structural adjustment through internal wage devaluation, labor market reforms, and fiscal devaluation. While this approach reduced macroeconomic imbalances, it also depressed domestic demand and income inequality grew. Long-term growth foundations remain weak due to issues like high debt, low investment, unemployment, and poverty. Bolder actions are needed to strengthen competitiveness and boost research, education, and social cohesion.
1. From crisis to development
Athens, 29th of April 2014
José Moisés Martín Carretero
2. Not aimed at promoting growth but at facing
macroeconomic imbalances in absence of
monetary policy:
◦ Reduction of public deficit
◦ Internal wage devaluation: labour market reform
◦ Fiscal devaluation
◦ Financial reform and deleveraging
◦ Liberalization of markets
Two phases:
◦ Between 2008 and 2010: Keynesian fiscal stimulus and
automatic stabilizers
◦ Since 2010: structural adjustment
37. Europe 2020 Target Last data
Employment rate 75% 59,3%
R+D Investment 2% of GDP 1,3% of GDP
Greenhouse emissions -20% from 1990 +21% from 1990
Renewable energy 20% of total energy 16,05%
Energy efficiency 20% -
School early leaving 10% 24,9%
30-34 years old with
tertiary qualifications
44% 40,6%
Poverty and social
exclussion
-1,5 million people in
poverty.
growing
38. Internal devaluation has led to a wage reduction
and worsening income distribution. Internal
demand has been strongly depressed.
In spite of efforts, Public deficit and debt still
being far away from Stability Pact target.
Deleveraging of economy is being too slow due
to the low inflation.
International competitiveness gain is almost
purely cyclical.
Decrease of household disponsable income, and
higher inequality of income, led to an increase of
poverty and social exclusion.
39. Due to those reasons, foundations for long-
term growth are weak:
◦ Financial impediments for a higher level of
investment.
◦ Lack of investment in R+D
◦ Long term unemployment to become structural.
◦ “Lost generation” of young people
◦ Weak social cohesion and political mistrust.
40. Conditions to increase growth and social
development:
◦ ECB should act more agressively in order to tackle low
inflation, euro appreciation and debt burden: QE.
◦ Growth friendly tax reform.
◦ Public expenditure to be focused on child poverty.
◦ Increase the quantity and effectiveness of R+D
investment. Reform of universities.
◦ Bold policies towards qualification of not-qualified
workers and unemployed.
◦ Bring people back to the employment as soon as
possible. Specially those in long term unemployment.