Comunicação apresentada no «Climate Change and Cities Symposium», na qualidade de representante Português no projecto de investigação «Suburban neighbourhood adaptation for a changing climate (SNACC)» - 26 a 30 de Abril de 2010, UWE Conference and Exhibition Centre, Frenchay, Bristol, Reino Unido.
1. Climate change in Portugal:
Port gal
State of the art
Joaquim Flores
Climate change and cities symposium
Suburban i hb h d d t ti f
S b b neighbourhood adaptation for a changing climate
h i li t
(SNACC)
27th April 2010 - UWE Conference and Exhibition Centre
Frenchay, Bristol
2. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Objective
– Overview of the Portuguese situation in relation
to C ate C a ge
Climate Change:
• Mitigation
• Adaptation
3. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Structure
– Portuguese portrait
– General policy
– Concrete actions
4. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it
5. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it
6. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it
7. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it
Large sea jurisdiction / two Atlantic archipelagos
Source: PNPOT, 2007
8. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it
Source: PNPOT, 2007
9. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
PORTUGAL: a portrait
Source: Statistics Portugal, 2008
10. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
PORTUGAL: a portrait
High numbers of
sunlight hours per year
Source: Meteo Institute
11. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it
Low GNP
Source: PNPOT, 2007
12. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Population ageing
Source: Statistics Portugal, 2008
13. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it
Population ageing
Source: PNPOT, 2007
14. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it
High density in the
coast
Source: PNPOT, 2007
15. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it
High density in the coast –
energy consumption
Source: PNPOT, 2007
16. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it
Land use
Source: PNPOT, 2007
17. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it
Main risks
Source: PNPOT, 2007
18. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it
Spatial model
Source: PNPOT, 2007
19. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
PORTUGAL:
PORTUGAL a portrait
t it
Public expense with environment: waste e water
management
20. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Diogo Homem, 1563
21. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Oporto-1945
22. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Lisbon-1966
23. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Emissions
24. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) per Capita
kg CO2 equivalent
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000 EU27
0 PT
1990 1991 1992
1993 1994 1995
1996 1997
1998 1999
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: European Communities, 2010
25. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
CO2 Emissions per Capita
10000
8000
6000
4000 CO2 per capita (kg/cap) - Portugal
2000
0
CO2 per capita (kg/cap) - EU27
Average
Source: European Communities, 2010
26. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Greenhouse Gases:
- Emissions increased 37% - 1990-2003
- CO2 represents 80% of Greenhouse Gases in Portugal
- From those 50% are from fuel to electricity and cars
-B t
Between 1990-2003 CO2 f
1990 2003 from cars i
increase 95%
Source: PNPOT, 2007
27. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Madeira Island - 20-02-2010
• 42 death
• 120 hounded
• 200 lost home
28. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Portugal - 21-04-2010
• Severe weather conditions in localized
points
• Thousands of Euros of prejudice
29. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Drought - 2005
• Precipitation 40% above average of last
60 years
• 90% of the country affected for several months
• Water s ppl
supply
• Agriculture
• Biodiversity
30. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Drought - 2005
• Nasa satellite imagery
31. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Forest fires - 2005
300.000 ha
32-553 fires
32. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Forest fires - 2005
33. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Heat wave – 2003
• High temperatures
• Low air humidity
• 14 days
• Interior
• Fires (425.000ha)
• Water supply failure
Source: IGP (2003)
34. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Heat wave – 2003
Source: Portugal - Ministry of Health (2004)
35. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Heat wave – 1991
Source: SIAM (2004)
36. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Lisbon – EXPO98
• Environmental conscientiousness
turning point
• Environmental practice
• Environmental academic research
• Environmental policy
37. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
CIAM – Climate Change Impacts Adaptation and
Mitigation Research Group
http://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/CCIAM/
38. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• SIAM and SIAM II – Scenarios, Impacts,
and Ad
d Adaptation M
i Measures
• http://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/
39. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• SIAM
• Started in the summer of 1999, with funding
from the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation
(
(Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian, FCG). Since
ç , )
January of 2000 it was also support by
Portuguese Government
• Ended in October 2001 with the publication of
the final report in book form
40. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• SIAM II
• Started in January 2002, focusing in case
studies.
• Ended in 2006 with the publication of the
final
fi l report i b k f
t in book form
41. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• European funding project: CLIMAAT and
CLIMAAT II (Interreg)
• Cli
Climat i the A l i I l d
in h Atlantic Islands
• http://www.climaat.angra.uac.pt/
42. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• SIAM
Significant increase in mean
temperatures until the end of
the XXI
43. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• SIAM
• Significant increase in mean
temperatures until the end of the XXI
• Summer maximum temperature:
– Portugal mainland +3ºC in coast and +7ºC
in the interior
– Madeira +3ºC
– Azores +2ºC
44. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• SIAM
• Global
warming
45. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• SIAM
• Si ifi
Significant increase i mean
ti in
temperatures until the end of the XXI
• In General:
– Increase in the intensity and frequency of
heat waves
– Increase in the number of hot days (temp.
above 35ºC)
– Increase in the number of Tropical nights
(temp.
(temp above 20ºC)
20 C)
– Decrease in the number of cold days (temp.
under 0ºC)
46. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• SIAM
• Red ction in
Reduction
rain
47. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• SIAM
• Reduction f th
R d ti of the rainy season, mainly i S i
i i l in Spring
and Autumn (different scenarios forecast a reduction
in annual rainfall in the continent by 20-40% of current
levels)
).
• A significant reduction (
g (about 30%) in annual
)
precipitation is also projected for Madeira during
this period.
• In the Azores, changes are predicted in the
annual rainfall cycle but without substantial
impact on total precipitation.
48. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• SIAM
• The main impacts include:
• Probable changes in flood and drought
regimes, as well as changes in the quality and
g , g q y
availability of water;
• Significant increase in the risk of fire hazards;
Si ifi ti i th i k f fi h d
• Considerable increase in air pollution levels
and ecological disturbances, which may lead
to significant changes in the dynamics of
infectious disease transmission as well as
regional variations in agricultural productivity;
49. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• SIAM
• The main impacts include:
• Increase of the erosion processes and
consequently of the flooded areas;
q y ;
• Reduction in the yield of irrigated crops.
51. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Portuguese funding project: PORTCOAST
(2004-2007)
• Present and future Portuguese coastal
climate and its impacts on the biological
li t d it i t th bi l i l
communities
• http://www.io.fc.ul.pt/zoologia/projectos/portcoast/
52. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Coastal erosion
• 67% of the Portuguese coast is in
erosion risk and lost of land in the
next decades due to climate change.
Source: Portcoast, 2008
53. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Coastal erosion
• Cascais
• Red ction in more than 50 % of
Reduction
beach coast until the end of XXI.
• In the most pessimit cenarios, some
beaches can reduce their sand in
80%.
Source: SPACCC, 2010
54. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• CLIMATE CHANGE & TOURISM IN PORTUGAL:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS & ADAPTATION MEASURES
(
(CLITOP) - 2007
)
• http://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/clitop/
55. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Conclusions
• Scenarios
– Increase in temperature
– Reduction of rainfall
• Impacts
– Droughts
– Water
– Fire risk
– Coastal erosion
Source: SIAM, SIAMII, CLIMAAT, PORTCOAST
56. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• National Commission for Climate
Change (1998)
• Comissão
C i ã para as Alt
Alterações Cli áti
õ Climáticas
• I t
Intersectorial Commission i
t i lC i i in
Government
• Elaboration of Climate Change
National Plans and Policies
57. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• National Program for Climate Change
(2004 and 2006)
• Programa Nacional para as Alt
P N i l Alterações
õ
Climáticas
• http://www.apambiente.pt/politicasambiente/Alter
acoesClimaticas/PNAC/Paginas/default.aspx
58. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• National Program for Climate Change
(2006)
• Programa Nacional para as Alt
P N i l Alterações
õ
Climáticas
• Monitoring PNAC (execution indicators)
http://www.cumprirquioto.pt/Home.action
• Quioto Target: less than 27% CFC emissions in
relation to 1990 (2008-2012)
( )
• 2010 – 5% from target (17,62 Mt CO2e)
59. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
National Program for Climate Change (2006)
Programa Nacional para as Alterações Climáticas
g
60. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• National Program for Climate Change
(2006)
• Programa Nacional para as Alt
P N i l Alterações
õ
Climáticas
• Energy
• Transportation
• Emissions
• Agriculture
• Florest
• Waste
61. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Portuguese Carbon Fund (2006)
• Fundo Português de Carbono
• Greenhouse gases emissions (Emission
Trading System)
• Managing the emissions trade in Portugal
• European Emission Trading System (EU
ETS
62. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• CO2 Emissions National Plan (2008)
• Plano Nacional de Atribuição de Licenças de
Emissão de CO2
• http://www.apambiente.pt/Instrumentos/CELE/PN
p p p
ALE/PNALE_II/Paginas/default.aspx
• Licensing of major emissions producers
Li i f j i i d
63. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Climate Change Adaptation National
Strategy (2010)
• Estratégia N i
E t té i Nacional d Ad t ã à Alt
l de Adaptação às Alterações
õ
Climáticas (ENAAC)
• Approved in April 2010
• Scenarios and climat projections for the
pe od 080 00, o a a d o uga
period 2080-2100, for mainland Portugal
and Islands, Madeira and Azores
64. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Climate Change Adaptation National
Strategy
• The strategy of the strategy:
4 objectives:
– I f
Information and K
ti d Knowledge (
l d (necessity t
it to
develop solid cientific and thecnical base)
– Reduce the vulnerability and increase the
answer capacity
– Involvement of all sectors
– International cooperation
65. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
2008-2009
Strategic Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change in
Sintra Municipality
Started in 2008 and ending in 2009 The objective of this
project is to study climate change impacts and adaptation
measures on specific sectors, namely, water resources,
coastal zones, human health, energy, tourism, forests and
biodiversity in the Sintra area.
From the CIAM Research Group
p
http://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/siam-sintra/home.php
66. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
2009-2010
Strategic Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change in
Cascais Municipality
The objective of this project is to study climate change
impacts and adaptation measures on specific sectors,
namely, water resources, coastal zones, human health,
energy, tourism, forests, biodiversity and agriculture in the
Cascais Municipality.
The impact assessment will allow to strategically plan
adaptation as a response to climate change in Cascais.
From the CCIAM Research Group
http://www.siam.fc.ul.pt/PECAC/
67. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
2008 – Energy Efficiency National Plan
(PNAEE 2015)
68. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Import Dependency
2007 ( in % )
All fuels Solid fuels Oil Gas
EU27 53,1 41,2 82,6 60,3
PT 82,0 100 98,9 98,7
Source: European Commission 2010
69. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
2008 – Energy Efficiency National Plan
(PNAEE 2015)
Programs and measures to achieve energy efficiency in
several sectors in relation to final energy consumption
- Transport
- Residential ans services
- Industry
y
- State
- Behaviour
- taxes
- Funding
70. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• National Electricity Mobility Plan (2008)
• 21 Municipalities
71. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Target: 1.350 charging points in em 2011
• The national pilot network will be
compatible with all electric vehicules
• Slow charging points (six to eight hours
from wind energy produced at night)
• F t charging points (20 t 30 minutes i
Fast h i i t to i t in
the day)
72. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Charging points:
• private garages
• public access points located at public car
parks
• car parks at shopping centers
• hotels, airports, gas stations and other
places in those municipalities which have
adhered to the pilot scheme.
scheme
73. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• A pre-paid card charg.e of the mobi.e
network shall provide access to the supply
points,
points discounting the charging value
• This amount includes the electricity
consumed and payment for the charging
se ce
service.
74. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Electric Mobility Local Plan (Municipalities)
• Porto
• 168 slow charching points in the city
• Incentive measures to promote electric
mobility in the city
75. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• National Incentive to dismantle old
vehicles
• Will be reserved to electric vehicles and high
environmental performance vehicles with CO2
emissions lower than 100 g/km
76. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Lisbon – Expo98
Trigeneration system – Power-Heating-Cooling
15Km of network
130 buildings connected (housing, hotels, offices,
pavillions, major services)
MESAP – Modular Energy System Analysis and Planning
(University of Stuttgart)
77. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Lisbon – Expo98
Source: Climaespaço 2006
78. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Lisbon – Expo98
Source: Climaespaço 2006
79. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Lisbon – Expo98
Source: Climaespaço 2007
80. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Oporto – 2010
Thermal Energy Urban Network
RUTE Project (Rede Urbana de Energia Térmica)
Oporto Historical Centre (Downtown)
Thermal system – Heating-Cooling
Anchor Buildings/services
81. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Oporto – 2010
Thermal Energy Urban Network
RUTE Project (Rede Urbana de Energia Térmica)
82. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Oporto – 2010
Thermal Energy Urban Network
RUTE Project (Rede Urbana de Energia Térmica)
83. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Oporto – 2006
RE-START
RE START Project (European Funding)
Pilot Project
XIX Building
Natural lighting
Natural ventilation
Support systems
84. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Smart grids - the future of electric energy
distribution
di t ib ti
• C
Communication i th di t ib iti system
i ti in the distribuition t
• C
Consumption metering ( hi h 1 )
i i (which 15m)
• Energy lost control
85. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• InovCity
• Energy Box
• Homes
• Industry and services
• Public lighting
86. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Smart grid Pilot Project
• Public/Private partnership
• Instalation of 31 000 energy boxes
31.000
• Comunication with 300 electricity network points in
the city
• Will allow «savings on energy consumption and
distribution in Portugal»
87. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
• Public lighting efficiency
• 4 measures:
• Introdution of LED technology – redution in 40% to
50% in electricity consumption
• Intensity regulation according to natural light
conditions
• Reducing light intensity in the dead hours (2:00-
5:00 am) keeping the security levels
• Dynamic management of lighting – adaptation to
traffic and human presence
88. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Solar Central – Amareleja - Moura
2008 – Photovoltaic Solar Central
Sunny South of Portugal (temperature records in the
Summer)
- Capacity to produce 46,41 Megawatts allowing to prevent
the emission of 89.000 CO2 ton comparing to fossil
production
- 2.520 Sun followers with 104 solar panels which
- 250 hectares
- The Central will produce 93 Gigawatts/hour per y ,
p g p year,
enough to 30.000 households consumption
- Is the second in the world - Olmedilla de Alarcon (Spain),
with 60 Megawatts of production capacity and 85
Gigawatts/hour per yea
89. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Aguçadoura wave farm – 2008
-Location 5km off the Atlantic coastline of northern Portugal
- Three P1-A Pelamis machines Capacity 2.25 MW (3 x
750kW)
-Status Proven installation of three units on fully
commissioned site i f
i i d i infrastructure and successful export of
d f l f
power into the local grid.
-The multiple P l i units making up th A
Th lti l Pelamis it ki the Aguçadoura
d
wave farm constitute both the world’s first, multi-unit, wave
farm and also the first commercial order for wave energy
converters.
converters
- 1st stage – 3 machines – capacity to produce 750
kilowatts (kw) each allowing to average production of 7
each,
Gigawatts/hour per year (Gwh).
90. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Parque Eólico do Alto Minho I
Wind Energy Park – 2008
Major wind park in Europe
Windy North of Portugal
Capacity to produce 240 Megawatts and will prevent the
emission of 500.000 CO2 ton comparing to fossil
production
d i
Is now producing electricity for 300.000 households (1,5%
of Portuguese energy consumption)
fP t ti )
- 120 wind towers
-The Central will produce 530 Gigawatts/hour per year
- Portugal wind energy:
- From 500 megawatts in 2005 to 5.000 in 2010
91. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
EU27 - 2007
Renewables
Source: European Communities, 2010
92. EU27 - 2007 Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Renewables
3,14% of EU27
Source: European Communities, 2010
93. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Share of electricity from renewable energy sources in total electricity
consumption (%) - EU27 (2009)
Share of electricity from renewable energy sources in total electricity consumption (%) - EU27
80 80
70 70
60 60
50 2010 OBJECTIVE 50
2007 Total Share
40 EU27 OBJECTIVE 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
NL
BE
LU
DK
DE
EE
ES
HU
CY
LV
SK
FI
SE
UK
EU
BG
CZ
IT
AT
EL
LT
MT
PT
PL
RO
FR
IE
SI
27
Source: European Communities, 2010
94. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Sources of Energy
Renewables – 31,8%
Source: EDP, 2010
95. Climate change in Portugal: state of the art Joaquim Flores
Thank You!
Joaquim Flores
Joaquim.flores@gmail.com