The document summarizes a presentation given at the 41st Council Meeting and 38th Plenary Session of the ASEAN Federation of Textile Industries (AFTEX) on the effects of the ongoing trade war between the United States and China on the textile industry in Asia, especially the ASEAN region. The presentation notes that while the trade war may divert some foreign direct investment and trade away from China into lower-cost Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Malaysia, benefiting their textile industries, the region will not be totally immune to the negative impacts if the trade war escalates. The textile and apparel industries of major players like China and Bangladesh are already seeing decreases in exports to the US market.

1.
ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session
organized
by:
The
Na1onal
Federa1on
of
Thai
Tex1le
Industries
presenta1on
by:
Joseph
Falcone,
Independent
Consultant
Specializing
in
Interna1onal
Trade
&
Sustainable
Supply
Chain
Policy
Topic:
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
Chiang
Mai,
Thailand
18
January
2019
1

2. “How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session
Welcome……representa+ves…….from
the
major
Tex1le
Associa1ons
of
the
9
ASEAN
country
members
:
2
• GMAC
Cambodia
• API
Indonesia
• ALGI
Laos
• MTMA
Malaysia
• MGMA
Myanmar
• CONGEP
Philippines
• TAFF
Singapore
• NFTTI
Thailand
• VITAS
Vietnam

3.
Topic:
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
3
https://www.euromoney.com/article/b1cbdrw49jhcw4/asiamoney-brokers-poll-2018-asia-finds-silver-lining-in-us-china-trade-spat 1/5
By Morgan Davis
A US-China trade war, while unsettling for global markets, throws up opportunities for low-cost Asian
economies: money flowing out of China means money up for grabs.
“If there’s a silver lining, it’s that it will be good for emerging markets,” says Alfred Dy, Philippines
strategist at CLSA. Emerging and frontier markets in southeast Asia, such as Vietnam, appear well
positioned to pick up any shift in manufacturing and investments away from China.
“Since we are not the direct target of the US administration, we believe that Thailand and Asean can be
potential beneficiaries,” says Suchart Techaposai, Thailand strategist at CLSA.
When it comes to foreign direct investment inflows, China is easily the leader of the pack in Asia, and it
would be impossible to divert all of this investment to other countries in the region. To put this in
perspective, China received $136 billion in FDI inflows in 2017, while Hong Kong received a further
$104 billion, according to the UN’s World Investment Report 2018.

4.
BIG
PICTURE
–
GDP
in
China
and
US
:
• China’s
exports
may
collapse
in
early
2019
given
the
signs
of
frontloading
ahead
of
the
US
tariff
hike
to
25%
from
10%
on
1
January
• Impact
es1mates
from
the
Interna1onal
Monetary
Fund
(IMF)
and
Asian
Development
Bank
(ADB)
suggest
that
a
“full-­‐blown
trade
war”
can
shave
annually
over
the
next
two
years:
– 1.6%
points
off
China’s
gross
domes+c
product
(GDP)
growth
– 0.9%
points
off
US
GDP
growth
Source:
Maybank
Kim
Eng
(Maybank
KE)
Report,
Singapore,
03
December
2018:
hbps://sbr.com.sg/economy/asia/us-­‐china-­‐trade-­‐war-­‐will-­‐divert-­‐trade-­‐and-­‐investment-­‐asean-­‐analyst
4
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

5.
• ASEAN
Tex1le
Companies
will
NOT
be
totally
immune
to
the
trade
war
if
it
escalates.
• At
the
end
of
the
day
it’s
going
to
hurt
the
global
economy.
5
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

6.
Effects
–
Trade
&
Investment
in
ASEAN:
As
per
a
recent
report
by
Maybank
Kim
Eng
(Maybank
KE):
• Countries
part
of
the
Associa1on
of
Southeast
Asian
Na1ons
(ASEAN)
will
benefit
from
the
US-­‐China
trade
war
which
will
divert
trade
and
investment
to
the
region
in
a
bid
to
circumvent
the
high
tariff
walls.
• In
par1cular,
Vietnam,
Thailand,
Cambodia
and
Malaysia
may
benefit
as
mul+na+onal
corpora+ons
(MNCs)
and
Chinese
firms
build
new
plants
and
expand
their
capaci+es.
Source:
Maybank
Kim
Eng
(Maybank
KE)
Report,
Singapore,
03
December
2018.
hbps://sbr.com.sg/economy/asia/us-­‐china-­‐trade-­‐war-­‐will-­‐divert-­‐trade-­‐and-­‐investment-­‐asean-­‐analyst
6
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

7. TEXTILE
&
RMG
Situa1on
of
the
top
3
leaders:
1.
China
(#1
in
RMG
exports),
RMG
exports
are:
Rapidly
Decreasing,
from
40%
to
30%
of
global
total,
since
2010.
Now
stands
@
$158
B.
– 30%
of
global
total
2.
Bangladesh
(#2):
5,000
factories,
4m
people
in
sector.
– 6.4%
global
total
3.
Vietnam
(#3),
6,000
factories,
3m
people
in
sector.
– 5.8%
global
total
7
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

8. 11
Ques+ons
and
Answers
• Regarding
the
trade
war
between
the
United
States
and
China…
8
12/11/2018 US-China trade war will make or break Asean
US-China trade war will make or break Asean
Derwin Pereira says the trade war is pushing Asean to an ideological crossroads
The Southeast Asian countries that grouped together during the cold war now have to choose
between the US and China, in a decisive test of Asean’s resilience
PUBLISHED : Friday, 16 November, 2018, 1:02am
UPDATED : Friday, 16 November, 2018, 1:02am
China’s vow to crack down on fentanyl ‘won’t end US opioid crisis’
6 Dec 2018
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

9.
1. What
are….the
effects
–
already
?
• The
trade
war
between
Washington
and
Beijing
is
pushing
many
global
companies
to
rethink
their
supply
chains
–
including
Tex1le
and
Garment
Buyers;
9
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

10.
1.
What
are….the
effects
–
already
?
(con1nued)
• Some
US
garments
buyers
are
already
making
strategic
adjustments
to
their
business
plans
to
more
rapidly
diversify
their
supplies,
even
though
Trump
hasn't
targeted
Chinese
garments
in
the
tariff
war
yet.
10
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

11.
2.
What
are
the
likely
effects
?
• Opportuni1es
for
low-­‐cost
Asian
economies;
• Money
flowing
out
of
China
means
money
up
for
grabs.
If
there’s
a
silver
lining,
it’s
that
it
will
be
good
for
emerging
markets;
• Emerging
and
fron1er
markets
in
southeast
Asia,
such
as
Vietnam,
appear
well
posi1oned
to
pick
up
any
shit
in
manufacturing
and
investments
away
from
China.
Source:
Asiamoney
Brokers
Poll
2018:
Asia
finds
silver
lining
in
US-­‐China
trade
spat,
“Top-­‐rated
strategists
–
as
ranked
by
the
Asiamoney
Brokers
Poll
–
see
opportuni1es
for
smaller
Asian
economies
to
lure
manufacturers
away
from
China
during
the
latest
dispute.
December
28,
2018”.
hbps://www.euromoney.com/ar1cle/b1cbdrw49jhcw4/asiamoney-­‐brokers-­‐poll-­‐2018-­‐asia-­‐finds-­‐silver-­‐lining-­‐in-­‐us-­‐china-­‐trade-­‐
spat
11
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

12.
2.
What
are….the
likely
effects
?
(con1nued…)
• Rising
land
and
labor
costs
in
China
have
for
some
1me
been
promp1ng
foreign
companies
based
there,
along
with
domes1c
firms,
to
invest
in
factory
output
in
Southeast
Asian
states,
en1ced
by:
– geographic
proximity,
– lower
wages,
– improving
infrastructure,
– liberal
trading
policies
and
– sizable
local
consumer
demand.
12
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

13.
2.
What
are….the
likely
effects
?
(con1nued…)
The
shit
has
been
dubbed
the
“China
Plus
One”
strategy,
whereby
investors
:
– move
some
of
their
Chinese
opera1ons
to
a
neighboring
country
in
order
to
lower
overhead.
The
trend
is
likely
to
be
expedited
by
the
trade
war
between
China
and
the
United
States,
as
companies
based
in
China
abempt
to
evade
margin-­‐squeezing
tariffs.
13
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

14.
2.
What
are….the
likely
effects
?
(con1nued…)
• VIETNAM
appears
to
be
capturing
the
lion’s
share
of
the
shiting
supply
chains;
• VIETNAM
oten
cited
as
a
‘mini
China’
and
produc1on
alterna1ve
to
China.
14
12/16/2018 Vietnam garment exports surge on US-China trade war
Vietnam garment exports surge on US-China trade war
2 Nov 2018 at 15:52 2 comments
WRITER: REUTERS
Labourers work at a garment factory in Bac Giang province near Hanoi on Oct 21, 2015. (Reuters
photo)
HANOI: Vietnam's garment exports are set to rise by 14.8% this year to $35 billion, an industry official
said on Friday, as US retailers diversify their product sourcing to keep costs under control amid an
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

15.
2.
What
are….the
likely
effects
?
(con1nued…)
• Foreign
investors
poured
in
$2
billion
in
Vietnam's
garment
and
tex1le
produc1on
in
the
first
eight
months
of
this
year;
• Most
investors
were
from
Japan,
South
Korea,
Taiwan
and
China…con1nuing
a
trend
of
the
past
many
years.
Source:
Vietnam
garment
exports
surge
on
US-­‐China
trade
war,
REUTERS,
02
Nov
2018.
hbps://www.bangkokpost.com/news/asean/1569278/vietnam-­‐garment-­‐exports-­‐surge-­‐on-­‐us-­‐china-­‐trade-­‐war
15
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

16.
Other
Likely
Effects
in
ASIA
–
TEXTILE
&
RMG
specific:
• Some
“possible”
posi1ves
to
the
lower
wage
countries
with
high
growth
poten1al
such
as
Ethiopia,
Cambodia
and
Myanmar
(con+ngent
on
EU
EBA)
• “Mild”
benefits
may
go
to
TEXTILE
producers
who
also
make
RMG
such
as:
– Pakistan
and
Sri
Lanka;
– Indonesia
–
higher
capacity
than
others
(assuming
they
are
not
targeted
by
US
Tariffs),
• Thailand,
Malaysia,
Laos,
not
men1oned
(
+
,
-­‐
)
16
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

17.
3.
Are
there
any
poten1al
tail
winds
?
• The
China-­‐led
Regional
Comprehensive
Economic
Agreement
(RCEP)
is
s1ll
under
nego1a1on
• RCEP
also
“supports
the
supply
chain
shit
towards
ASEAN.”
Source:
Maybank
Kim
Eng
(Maybank
KE)
Report,
Singapore,
03
December
2018.
hbps://sbr.com.sg/economy/asia/us-­‐china-­‐trade-­‐war-­‐will-­‐divert-­‐trade-­‐and-­‐investment-­‐asean-­‐analyst
17
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

18.
4.
Is
any
ASEAN
country
at
elevated
risk
of
Tex1le
Tariffs
from
the
US
?
Indonesia
?
18
Indonesia’s Textiles Exporters Brace for Trump's Trade
War | Jakarta Globe
US President Donald Trump has warned that he may revoke special trade tariffs for Indonesia,
especially on textiles, in a bid to reduce his country's trade deficit, an official said on Thursday (05/07).
(Reuters Photo/Darren Whiteside)
Jakarta. US President Donald Trump has warned that he may revoke special trade tariffs for Indonesia,
especially on textiles, in a bid to reduce his country's trade deficit, an official said on Thursday (05/07).
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

19.
5.
Why
is
Indonesia
at
risk
of
Tex1le
Tariffs
from
the
US
?
19
"[Trump]
is
now
doing
as
he
wishes,
including
to
us.
He
has
warned
us
that
we
cannot
export
more
than
the
United
States.
He
has
warned
that
there
are
several
special
tariff
arrangements
that
will
be
revoked,
especially
on
tex1les."
-­‐So|an
Wanandi,
chief
advisor
to
Vice
President
of
INDONESIA,
Jusuf
Kalla.
Source:
Indonesia’s
Tex+les
Exporters
Brace
for
Trump's
Trade
War
|
Jakarta
Globe,
05
July
2018:
hbps://jakartaglobe.id/trade/indonesias-­‐tex1les-­‐exporters-­‐brace-­‐for-­‐trumps-­‐trade-­‐war/
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

20. 6.
Will
the
trade
war
have
a
(+
posi1ve)
effect
on
the
TEXTILE
industry
in
OTHER
COUNTRIES
in
ASIA
?
• ASEAN
is
not
the
only
region
where
TEXTILE
and
GARMENTS
produc1on
is
likely
to
be
affected
by
the
Trade
War
between
US
and
China.
• BANGLADESH
is
in
a
similar
posi1on
as
Vietnam
and
Indonesia,
to
most
likely
be
able
to
capitalize
on
a
possibly
larger
opportunity
for
even
faster
growth
of
the
downward
linkage
of
GARMENTS
produc1on.
20
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

21. 6.
Will
the
trade
war
have
a
(+
posi1ve)
effect
on
the
TEXTILE
industry
in
OTHER
Countries
in
ASIA
?
(con1nued)
• INDIA
will
benefit;
Especially
in
knitwear.
21
https://thewire.in/trade/what-stops-india-from-being-asias-next-big-factory-trade 1/6
TRADE
What Stops India From Being
Asia’s Next Big Factory?
Specific and substantial structural reforms are the need of the
hour. Are our policy-makers up for the task?
An employee at a Kolkata undergarment factory. Credit: Rupak De Chowdhuri/Reuters
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

22. 7.
Is
there
any
Role
for
the
AFTEX
Members
in
this
trade
war
–
to
assist
it’s
members,
even
if
just
from
the
sidelines?
Answer:
YES.
How
might
the
AFTEX
members
try
to
help
the
situa+on
in
the
next
few
years
as
this
unfolds
?
22
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

23. 8.
How
might
the
AFTEX
members
influence
the
situa1on
during
these
uncertain
1mes
?
• Many
business
and
trade
experts
and
commentators
suggest
tex1le
and
garment
sector
leaders
in
ASIA
and
ASEAN
in
par1cular
might
act
decisively
now,
to
help
the
situa1on
and
influence
its
outcome
to
their
own
business
and
country’s
benefit.
23
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

24. 9.
What
may
be
the
main
point
for
the
ASEAN
Tex1le
and
Garment
Sector
to
improve,
from
a
perspec1ve
of
TEXTILE
and
GARMENTS
-­‐
Improved
compe++veness
?
• Be$er
Lobbying
?
24
12/11/2018 An ASEAN out to the US-China pressure?
An ASEAN out to the US-China pressure?
As the clash of the superpowers continues, New Zealand is coming under pressure to choose
between the US and China - but could regional groupings like ASEAN offer a safety valve? Sam
Sachdeva reports.
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

25. Many
local
and
interna1onal
analysts
have
commented
that
they
believe
that:
• Three
economies
in
ASIA
-­‐
Vietnam,
India
and
Bangladesh
-­‐
are
the
envy
of
their
neighbours,
in
terms
of
posi1oning
for
sustained
economic
growth
of
6-­‐7
percent;
and
• These
three
(3)
all
-­‐
already
–
hold
the
KEYS
to
SUCCESS.
25
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

26. 10.
What
are
those
Keys
to
Success
?
All
3
countries
-­‐
Vietnam,
India
and
Bangladesh
–
are
TEXTILE
and
GARMENTS
powerhouses,
thanks
to
:
– Knack
for
akrac+ng
FDI
(
VIETNAM
especially
!
);
– Offers
of
Low
Wages,
a
key
for
GARMENTS
SECTOR
– Tax
Incen+ves
and
Improved
Infrastructure
in
places
where
investors
want
to
locate
their
factories;
– ALL
THREE
(3)
have
economic
growth
forecasts
to
con1nue
to
outperform
all
other
countries
globally,
from
now
to
2050
(6-­‐7%
growth
per
year).
26
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

27. For
example,
the
ASEAN
governments
and
the
Garment
Sector
leaders
in
each
country
could
do
more…..
wherever
and
whenever
poli1cally
possible…..to:
1. Ensure
tex1le
and
RMG
sector
Tax
Incen+ves,
which
impacts
PRICE,
and
2. Improving
Speed
for
Tex1le
and
Garments
related
Customs
Clearing
and
Processing
–
which
impacts
DELIVERY;
3. Speed
also
includes
Proximity:
Vietnam,
Myanmar
and
Cambodia
all
can
bring
ALL
Garments
Accessories
from
China,
by
road
–
a
poten0al
advantage
over
India
and
Bangladesh.
27
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

28. 11.
Which
countries
are
best
posi1oned
-­‐
in
ASEAN
?
• Vietnam
is
BEST
POSITIONED
for
Tex1le
and
Garments
sector
expansion.
• Cambodia,
Myanmar
are
poten1ally,
too
–
but
may
be
sanc1oned
by
EU
with
EBA’s
GSP
withdrawal
of
Duty
Free
Privileges
in
2019…let’s
wait
and
see.
28
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

29. This
shows
that:
–
A
US-­‐China
Trade
War
means
a
threat
of
tex1le
related
tariffs,
– Any
new
Chinese
or
other
Asian
FDI
or
Trade
Preferences
(EBA)
will
also
affect
many
of
the
ASEAN
countries.
– It's
all
linked
in
this
globalized
economy…and
one’s
analysis
of
upcoming
risks
/
benefits
must
be
localized
as
well
as
take
into
account
all
op1ons/factors.
29
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

30. In
summary:
• Bangladesh,
India
and
especially
Vietnam
will
all
most
likely
be
the
big
winners
-­‐
in
TEXTILES
&
RMG
-­‐
from
the
trade
tensions
between
US
and
China
• Mild
benefits
may
go
to:
– Indonesia,
Pakistan
and
Sri
Lanka
• If
no
EBA
withdrawal
from
EU
occurs,
also
benefi1ng
will
be:
– Myanmar
and
Cambodia
30
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

31. So…..Let’s
Pay
Very
Close
Aken+on
to
this
Trade
War…..
as
it
unfolds
over
the
next
2-­‐6
years,
because:
As
many
highly
successful
business
people
have
long
recognized
over
the
past
many
decades
-­‐
in
all
parts
of
the
planet
-­‐
paying
aben1on
to
the
relevant
regulatory
environment
and
the
changing
trade
winds
is
key
to
survival.
As
the
INTEL
Corpora1on
founder
famously
(unfortunately)
observed
:
“Only
the
paranoid
survive.”
31
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

32. Yes,
U.S.
President
Donald
Trump
and
Chinese
President
Xi
Jinping
agreed
to
a
90-­‐-­‐day
pause
in
new
tariffs
as
the
two
countries
try
to
seble
their
trade
dispute.
…
• But….the
next
2-­‐6
years
are
guaranteed
to
be
HIGHLY
Unpredictable.
32
1/15/2019 Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2018: Asia finds silver lining in US-China trade spat
Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2018: Asia finds silver lining in
US-China trade spat
By: Published on:
Friday, December 28, 2018
Top-rated strategists – as ranked by the Asiamoney Brokers Poll – see opportunities for smaller Asian
economies to lure manufacturers away from China during the latest dispute.
By Morgan Davis
A US-China trade war, while unsettling for global markets, throws up opportunities for low-cost Asian
economies: money flowing out of China means money up for grabs.
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

33.
-­‐
-­‐
CONCLUSION
-­‐
-­‐
Thank
you
!
Now
we
shall
open
the
floor
for
Your
Ques+ons.
33
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session

34.
Topic:
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
Keep
in
touch:
Email:
JoeFalcone1969@gmail.com
WhatsApp
/
Mobile:
+95
92
6178
0487
34
“How
the
Trade
War
between
the
United
States
and
China
will
have
an
effect
on
the
Tex9le
Industry
in
ASIA,
especially
on
the
ASEAN
Region”
18-Jan-19 Chiang Mai, Thailand ASEAN
Federa+on
of
Tex+le
Industries
AFTEX
41st
Council
Mee+ng
&
38th
Plenary
Session