- American public opinion is often uninformed, inconsistent, and illogical across issues. While the Supreme Court has around 74% approval, only about 50% know its main function. - Public opinion polls systematically interview a random sample of citizens to estimate opinions of the whole population. However, sampling errors and biases can occur if the sample is not truly representative. - Issues like question wording, sample selection biases, and socially desirable responding can impact the accuracy of public opinion polls in representing overall public views. Polls must use random, representative samples and avoid leading questions to provide an accurate depiction of public opinion.

1. Public Opinion

2. Public Opinion EXPRESSIONS (not attitudes) of individuals regarding their political leaders and institutions as well as political and social issues. Attitudes cannot be measured

7. Survey Systematic interviews by trained, professional interviewers, who ask a standardized set of questions of a rather small number of randomly chosen citizens.

8. Public Opinion Poll a relatively few individuals (the sample) are interviewed in order to estimate the opinions of a whole population.

9. The Theory of Probability

10. Sampling Error?

11. 68% 95% The Bell Curve

12. Representative Sample each individual in the population has an equal probability of being selected at random for inclusion in the survey

14. Straw Polls Unscientific surveys which make no attempt at using a representative (random) sample in their polling. Think “Jaywalk All-Stars” -or local news

15. 1936 Presidential Election

17. 2004 Zogby Exit Polls

18. Push polls Polls which deliberately feed respondents misleading information or leading questions in an effort to “push” them into favoring a particular candidate or issue.

25. Actual Question

26. Actual Question

35. Political Socialization the learning process through which people acquire their political opinions, beliefs and values.

36. Political beliefs are acquired through a lifelong learning process.

38. Age-Cohort Tendency