AAII Bearish sentiment index as of 9/23/2009 overlaid with JSCO Investor pain index (weekly S&P500 data).

1. 0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08
BearishSentimentandJSCOPainIndex
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
S&P6mo.fwsperformance
AAII Bearish Sentiment Bearish Sentiment + 2 StdDev Current Bearish level
Normal Bearish JSCO Pain Index (S&P weekly data) JSCO Pain Index 8 wk Avg
S&P 6 months forward performance
Maximum bearish
sentiment in 21 yearsIn 2002, 2004, and 2005, bearish sentiment
was nearly as high as it was in March 2009;
6 months later (as indicated by the black
dots), share prices rose higher.

2. 0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Jul-87 Jul-88 Jul-89 Jul-90 Jul-91 Jul-92 Jul-93 Jul-94 Jul-95 Jul-96 Jul-97 Jul-98 Jul-99 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09
BearishSentimentandJSCOPainIndex
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
S&P6mo.fwsperformance
AAII Bearish Sentiment Bearish Sentiment + 2 StdDev Current Bearish level
Normal Bearish JSCO Pain Index (S&P weekly data) JSCO Pain Index 8 wk Avg
S&P 6 months forward performance