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Flagstaff Retail Analysis Report
1. Prepared by Tom Pippin and Scott Kitchens, BBC Research & Consulting City of Flagstaff Retail Market Analysis Sponsored by City of Flagstaff and Flagstaff Chamber of Commerce
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6. Retail Leakage -- Definition Retail Leakage is basically defined as local households using the Internet or driving elsewhere, to conduct their shopping. Instead of buying a retail good locally, they use Internet retailers or drive to another location to purchase said retail good. This could be due to a lack of local availability of the good they wish to buy, a better quality good found elsewhere or other similar reasons. The exact opposite – households driving from another location to purchase goods locally – is referred to as retail importation. We can estimate what categories of retail goods are leaked and imported using the methodology described on the prior slides.
10. Step 2 – Spending Power 2006 (1) Based on 2007 CES, inflated/deflated to appropriate year based on Urban Consumer Price Index. (2) Includes sales of liquor and pharmaceutical drugs.
11. Step 2 – Spending Power 2007 (1) Based on 2007 CES, inflated/deflated to appropriate year based on Urban Consumer Price Index. (2) Includes sales of liquor and pharmaceutical drugs.
12. Step 2 – Spending Power 2008 (1) Based on 2007 CES, inflated/deflated to appropriate year based on Urban Consumer Price Index. (2) Includes sales of liquor and pharmaceutical drugs.
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14. Step 3 – Actual Retail Sales (1) Includes sales of liquor and pharmaceutical drugs. Data provided by City of Flagstaff.
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16. Step 3 – Leakage Analysis - 2006 Here we compare our “expected” sales with the City’s “actual” sales. Flagstaff “leaked” in the retail categories of Clothing, Shoes, Furniture, Appliances, and Pets in 2006.
17. Step 3 – Leakage Analysis - 2007 Here we compare our “expected” sales with the City’s “actual” sales. Flagstaff “leaked” in the retail categories of Clothing, Shoes, Furniture, Appliances, and Pets in 2007.
18. Step 3 – Leakage Analysis - 2008 Here we compare our “expected” sales with the City’s “actual” sales. Flagstaff “leaked” in the retail categories of Clothing, Shoes, Furniture, Pets and Auto Dealerships in 2008.
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21. Step 4 – New Stores Needed We then divided the total “leakage” for each retail category by the average annual total sales per store to calculate the number of new stores needed to accommodate unmet consumer demand in the FRTA. The far right column displays the average number of new stores needed in Flagstaff based on the past three years of retail sales. For example, Flagstaff needs 1.4 new “Pets” stores to fully accommodate local consumer demand for goods sold at such stores.
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24. Flagstaff Visitors – New Stores Needed Inclusion of visitors in our analysis resulted in additional leakage in the retail categories of Clothing and Shoes. The remaining three retail categories were not affected as we did not expect visitors to shop at such stores. Construction of the calculated number of additional stores in each retail category would satisfy unmet consumer demand by existing residents in the FRTA as well as Flagstaff visitors.
25. Conclusions Based on the preceding analysis, we have concluded that unmet consumer demand warrants the construction of the following new retail establishments within the City. Existing residents of the FRTA and visitors who shop for these goods elsewhere could likely begin purchasing such goods in Flagstaff if these new stores are constructed. Without Visitors With Visitors
26. Conclusions What types of merchandise would these new retailers need to carry? The following pie chart show a potential product distribution for clothing stores based on typical household spending patterns.
Notes de l'éditeur
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION The Consortium is group made up of elected officials from the municipalities in Boulder County and is a forum to promote regional cooperation and communication. Since its creation in 1986 it has spearheaded numerous successful, cooperative programs for affordable housing, open space, regional trails, transportation, solid waste, energy use, and more. Since April of 2006, a sub-committee of the Consortium has been discussing the idea of “Revenue Sharing” as relates to the goal of “Revenue Stability”. In this presentation we will highlight the problems of the current system and possible benefits of achieving a more stable revenue stream for municipalities. We will also, explain the study goals and methodology.
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION The Consortium is group made up of elected officials from the municipalities in Boulder County and is a forum to promote regional cooperation and communication. Since its creation in 1986 it has spearheaded numerous successful, cooperative programs for affordable housing, open space, regional trails, transportation, solid waste, energy use, and more. Since April of 2006, a sub-committee of the Consortium has been discussing the idea of “Revenue Sharing” as relates to the goal of “Revenue Stability”. In this presentation we will highlight the problems of the current system and possible benefits of achieving a more stable revenue stream for municipalities. We will also, explain the study goals and methodology.
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION The Consortium is group made up of elected officials from the municipalities in Boulder County and is a forum to promote regional cooperation and communication. Since its creation in 1986 it has spearheaded numerous successful, cooperative programs for affordable housing, open space, regional trails, transportation, solid waste, energy use, and more. Since April of 2006, a sub-committee of the Consortium has been discussing the idea of “Revenue Sharing” as relates to the goal of “Revenue Stability”. In this presentation we will highlight the problems of the current system and possible benefits of achieving a more stable revenue stream for municipalities. We will also, explain the study goals and methodology.
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION The Consortium is group made up of elected officials from the municipalities in Boulder County and is a forum to promote regional cooperation and communication. Since its creation in 1986 it has spearheaded numerous successful, cooperative programs for affordable housing, open space, regional trails, transportation, solid waste, energy use, and more. Since April of 2006, a sub-committee of the Consortium has been discussing the idea of “Revenue Sharing” as relates to the goal of “Revenue Stability”. In this presentation we will highlight the problems of the current system and possible benefits of achieving a more stable revenue stream for municipalities. We will also, explain the study goals and methodology.
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Click in, one at a time: Here’s the % change over 10 years for a major municipality in the county. [it’s Boulder] Here’s a smaller, but rapidly growing municipality. [Erie] Now here’s a large city in the SE area. [Lafayette] This is another major municipality. [Longmont] Here’s a major city that’s seen growth and has also seen its ups and recent downs. [Louisville] This is a smaller municipality of really cool people. [Lyons] Here’s a mountain community. [Nederland] This is one of our fastest-growing municipalities. [Superior] This is a community where if you blink when you pass through, you may miss it. [Ward]
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Click in, one at a time: Here’s the % change over 10 years for a major municipality in the county. [it’s Boulder] Here’s a smaller, but rapidly growing municipality. [Erie] Now here’s a large city in the SE area. [Lafayette] This is another major municipality. [Longmont] Here’s a major city that’s seen growth and has also seen its ups and recent downs. [Louisville] This is a smaller municipality of really cool people. [Lyons] Here’s a mountain community. [Nederland] This is one of our fastest-growing municipalities. [Superior] This is a community where if you blink when you pass through, you may miss it. [Ward]
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Click in, one at a time: Here’s the % change over 10 years for a major municipality in the county. [it’s Boulder] Here’s a smaller, but rapidly growing municipality. [Erie] Now here’s a large city in the SE area. [Lafayette] This is another major municipality. [Longmont] Here’s a major city that’s seen growth and has also seen its ups and recent downs. [Louisville] This is a smaller municipality of really cool people. [Lyons] Here’s a mountain community. [Nederland] This is one of our fastest-growing municipalities. [Superior] This is a community where if you blink when you pass through, you may miss it. [Ward]
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Revenue Retention – Tax dollars are spent on important services instead of subsidizing corporations. Predictability – Predictability is especially important for planning for human services. While it is inconvenient and undesirable to close a library on Sundays because of a lack of funding, it can be devastating to stop providing food or shelter due to a lack of funds. Positive Regional Relationships – Taking the pressure off of worrying about generating revenue from one year to the next would allow municipal staff and elected officials to spend more time and energy on other important issues such as how we might be able to cooperate on providing services
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Revenue Retention – Tax dollars are spent on important services instead of subsidizing corporations. Predictability – Predictability is especially important for planning for human services. While it is inconvenient and undesirable to close a library on Sundays because of a lack of funding, it can be devastating to stop providing food or shelter due to a lack of funds. Positive Regional Relationships – Taking the pressure off of worrying about generating revenue from one year to the next would allow municipal staff and elected officials to spend more time and energy on other important issues such as how we might be able to cooperate on providing services
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Revenue Retention – Tax dollars are spent on important services instead of subsidizing corporations. Predictability – Predictability is especially important for planning for human services. While it is inconvenient and undesirable to close a library on Sundays because of a lack of funding, it can be devastating to stop providing food or shelter due to a lack of funds. Positive Regional Relationships – Taking the pressure off of worrying about generating revenue from one year to the next would allow municipal staff and elected officials to spend more time and energy on other important issues such as how we might be able to cooperate on providing services
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Revenue Retention – Tax dollars are spent on important services instead of subsidizing corporations. Predictability – Predictability is especially important for planning for human services. While it is inconvenient and undesirable to close a library on Sundays because of a lack of funding, it can be devastating to stop providing food or shelter due to a lack of funds. Positive Regional Relationships – Taking the pressure off of worrying about generating revenue from one year to the next would allow municipal staff and elected officials to spend more time and energy on other important issues such as how we might be able to cooperate on providing services
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Revenue Retention – Tax dollars are spent on important services instead of subsidizing corporations. Predictability – Predictability is especially important for planning for human services. While it is inconvenient and undesirable to close a library on Sundays because of a lack of funding, it can be devastating to stop providing food or shelter due to a lack of funds. Positive Regional Relationships – Taking the pressure off of worrying about generating revenue from one year to the next would allow municipal staff and elected officials to spend more time and energy on other important issues such as how we might be able to cooperate on providing services
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Revenue Retention – Tax dollars are spent on important services instead of subsidizing corporations. Predictability – Predictability is especially important for planning for human services. While it is inconvenient and undesirable to close a library on Sundays because of a lack of funding, it can be devastating to stop providing food or shelter due to a lack of funds. Positive Regional Relationships – Taking the pressure off of worrying about generating revenue from one year to the next would allow municipal staff and elected officials to spend more time and energy on other important issues such as how we might be able to cooperate on providing services
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Revenue Retention – Tax dollars are spent on important services instead of subsidizing corporations. Predictability – Predictability is especially important for planning for human services. While it is inconvenient and undesirable to close a library on Sundays because of a lack of funding, it can be devastating to stop providing food or shelter due to a lack of funds. Positive Regional Relationships – Taking the pressure off of worrying about generating revenue from one year to the next would allow municipal staff and elected officials to spend more time and energy on other important issues such as how we might be able to cooperate on providing services
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Revenue Retention – Tax dollars are spent on important services instead of subsidizing corporations. Predictability – Predictability is especially important for planning for human services. While it is inconvenient and undesirable to close a library on Sundays because of a lack of funding, it can be devastating to stop providing food or shelter due to a lack of funds. Positive Regional Relationships – Taking the pressure off of worrying about generating revenue from one year to the next would allow municipal staff and elected officials to spend more time and energy on other important issues such as how we might be able to cooperate on providing services
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Revenue Retention – Tax dollars are spent on important services instead of subsidizing corporations. Predictability – Predictability is especially important for planning for human services. While it is inconvenient and undesirable to close a library on Sundays because of a lack of funding, it can be devastating to stop providing food or shelter due to a lack of funds. Positive Regional Relationships – Taking the pressure off of worrying about generating revenue from one year to the next would allow municipal staff and elected officials to spend more time and energy on other important issues such as how we might be able to cooperate on providing services
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Revenue Retention – Tax dollars are spent on important services instead of subsidizing corporations. Predictability – Predictability is especially important for planning for human services. While it is inconvenient and undesirable to close a library on Sundays because of a lack of funding, it can be devastating to stop providing food or shelter due to a lack of funds. Positive Regional Relationships – Taking the pressure off of worrying about generating revenue from one year to the next would allow municipal staff and elected officials to spend more time and energy on other important issues such as how we might be able to cooperate on providing services
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Revenue Retention – Tax dollars are spent on important services instead of subsidizing corporations. Predictability – Predictability is especially important for planning for human services. While it is inconvenient and undesirable to close a library on Sundays because of a lack of funding, it can be devastating to stop providing food or shelter due to a lack of funds. Positive Regional Relationships – Taking the pressure off of worrying about generating revenue from one year to the next would allow municipal staff and elected officials to spend more time and energy on other important issues such as how we might be able to cooperate on providing services
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Revenue Retention – Tax dollars are spent on important services instead of subsidizing corporations. Predictability – Predictability is especially important for planning for human services. While it is inconvenient and undesirable to close a library on Sundays because of a lack of funding, it can be devastating to stop providing food or shelter due to a lack of funds. Positive Regional Relationships – Taking the pressure off of worrying about generating revenue from one year to the next would allow municipal staff and elected officials to spend more time and energy on other important issues such as how we might be able to cooperate on providing services
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Revenue Retention – Tax dollars are spent on important services instead of subsidizing corporations. Predictability – Predictability is especially important for planning for human services. While it is inconvenient and undesirable to close a library on Sundays because of a lack of funding, it can be devastating to stop providing food or shelter due to a lack of funds. Positive Regional Relationships – Taking the pressure off of worrying about generating revenue from one year to the next would allow municipal staff and elected officials to spend more time and energy on other important issues such as how we might be able to cooperate on providing services
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Revenue Retention – Tax dollars are spent on important services instead of subsidizing corporations. Predictability – Predictability is especially important for planning for human services. While it is inconvenient and undesirable to close a library on Sundays because of a lack of funding, it can be devastating to stop providing food or shelter due to a lack of funds. Positive Regional Relationships – Taking the pressure off of worrying about generating revenue from one year to the next would allow municipal staff and elected officials to spend more time and energy on other important issues such as how we might be able to cooperate on providing services
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Revenue Retention – Tax dollars are spent on important services instead of subsidizing corporations. Predictability – Predictability is especially important for planning for human services. While it is inconvenient and undesirable to close a library on Sundays because of a lack of funding, it can be devastating to stop providing food or shelter due to a lack of funds. Positive Regional Relationships – Taking the pressure off of worrying about generating revenue from one year to the next would allow municipal staff and elected officials to spend more time and energy on other important issues such as how we might be able to cooperate on providing services
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Revenue Retention – Tax dollars are spent on important services instead of subsidizing corporations. Predictability – Predictability is especially important for planning for human services. While it is inconvenient and undesirable to close a library on Sundays because of a lack of funding, it can be devastating to stop providing food or shelter due to a lack of funds. Positive Regional Relationships – Taking the pressure off of worrying about generating revenue from one year to the next would allow municipal staff and elected officials to spend more time and energy on other important issues such as how we might be able to cooperate on providing services
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Revenue Retention – Tax dollars are spent on important services instead of subsidizing corporations. Predictability – Predictability is especially important for planning for human services. While it is inconvenient and undesirable to close a library on Sundays because of a lack of funding, it can be devastating to stop providing food or shelter due to a lack of funds. Positive Regional Relationships – Taking the pressure off of worrying about generating revenue from one year to the next would allow municipal staff and elected officials to spend more time and energy on other important issues such as how we might be able to cooperate on providing services
PRELIMINARY DRAFT, NOT FOR CIRCULATION Revenue Retention – Tax dollars are spent on important services instead of subsidizing corporations. Predictability – Predictability is especially important for planning for human services. While it is inconvenient and undesirable to close a library on Sundays because of a lack of funding, it can be devastating to stop providing food or shelter due to a lack of funds. Positive Regional Relationships – Taking the pressure off of worrying about generating revenue from one year to the next would allow municipal staff and elected officials to spend more time and energy on other important issues such as how we might be able to cooperate on providing services
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