Oracle 2014 Case Study: From real time analytics to self correcting business intelligence and c-level risk alerts

SIMMETHOD
From Real Time Analytics To Self-
Correcting Crowd Analytics And
C-Level Sensors
Oracle’s 2014 Case Study
SIMMETHOD’s C-Level Risk And
Opportunities Alerts.
8/10/2014 1
WWW.SIMMETHOD.BLOGSPOT.COM

SIMMETHOD
Risk and Opportunity Alerts
8/10/2014 WWW.SIMMETHOD.BLOGSPOT.COM 2

SIMMETHOD’s Oracle 2014 Case Study
8/10/2014
3
“Oracle CEO Larry Ellison had a great
explanation as to why the company
missed fourth quarter revenue
expectations”, wrote Julie Bort on
Business Insider,
June 19, 2014.

“It sold a lot of cloud computing
contracts and that revenue
won’t show up right away, he
explained to Wall Street analysts
on the company’s quarterly
conference call”.
8/10/2014
4

“Another fourth-quarter miss for
Oracle is particularly shocking.
That’s always the company’s
biggest quarter, as salespeople
push to close deals and make
their annual quotas and bonuses.
8/10/2014
5

“To be fair, Oracle didn’t have a bad
quarter or year. It grew sales 3% for
the year, to a record $38.3 billion.
It dropped $13.2 billion to the
bottom line in net income up 2%
over last year”
8/10/2014
6

“Still this is two years in a
raw that Oracle missed Wall
Street’s expectations for its
fourth quarter instead of
meeting, or even exceeding
them. And investors were
not pleased”.
8/10/2014
7

SIMMETHOD
• Is Oracle’s future risk and
performance predictable based
on the SIMMETHOD Strategy
and Execution Performance
Predictive Index and risk and
opportunities alerts?
8/10/2014 8WWW.SIMMETHOD.BLOGSPOT.COM

The Way We Measure Corporate
Risk and Performance Is Broken
Why do
Businesses fail
or fail to
perform?
Blockbuster
Borders
Circuit City
Mervyns
Wachovia
Washington
Mutual
Linen n’
Things

The CEO Lament in the Business
Analytics Market
• We did not see it coming. All my
products and data analytics
pointed North while my business
as a whole (in comparison to
new competitors and the Best In
Class in multiple
industries) pointed South.

SIMMETHOD Strategy & Execution
Performance Predictive Index
How to holistically
measure strategy and
execution and
competitive advantage?

The SIMMETHOD Algorithm
SIMMETHOD
Strategy &
Execution
Performance
Predictive Index
Stockholders
valuation and
management’s
rating
C-level strategy
& execution
Business model
Management’s ability
to strategize & execute
against competitors and
the Best In Class
Competitors’
strategy &
execution

SIMMETHOD’s Algorithm
Path to Best In Class performance
• Operational and financial data is converted to
industry agnostic strategy & execution, risk and
performance indices following the 7 Laws of
Growth, Best Practices and Value Creation as a
framework
Convert data
into indices
• Strategy & Execution Performance Predictive
Indices are used to select Best In Class companies
across a range of industries within the league table
Select Best In
Class in business
league table
• Best In Class profiles with specific ratios, trends,
gaps and risk alerts to highlight the most cost
effective path to Best In Class performance
Calculate Best In
Class profiles
and risk alerts
8/10/2014
13

SIMMETHOD Strategy and Execution
• What is Oracle’s position within
the 2014 SIMMETHOD Strategy
& Execution Performance
Predictive Index
League Table?
8/10/2014 14

SIMMETHOD’s C-Level Trends 2012-2014
Oracle and the Best-In-Class
The following C-Level indices show ’s
Oracle’s ability to:
• Strategize and execute against the
SIMMETHOD Best-In-Class,
• Compete against the Best-In-Class, current
and future competitors
and are leading indicators of future business
opportunities, risk and performance.

SIMMETHOD
Strategy & Execution Performance Predictive Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
SIMMETHOD
Management
Controllable
Resources Index
SIMMETHOD
Strategy &
Execution
Performance
Predictive Index
8/10/2014 16

SIMMETHOD
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
SIMMETHOD
Management
Controllable
Resources Index
SIMMETHOD
Strategy &
Execution
Performance
Predictive Index
8/10/2014 17
Oracle’s competitive position and management’s
effectiveness within the SIMMETHOD business
league table

SIMMETHOD
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
SIMMETHOD
Management
Controllable Resources
Index
SIMMETHOD Strategy
& Execution
Performance Predictive
Index
8/10/2014 18

SIMMETHOD
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
AT&T
Atos
ThomasCook
Adecco
GrupoTelevisa
FidelityNational…
ComputerSciences
Sodexco
Verizoncomm
AmericanExpress
TimeWarnerCable
CompalElecronics
HP
Expedia
Capgemini
Comcast
Libertyinteractive
Telefonica
VeriskAnalytics
Cablevision
Centurylink
Innolux
SIMMETHOD Management
Controllable Resources Index
SIMMETHOD Strategy &
Execution Performance
Predictive Index
8/10/2014 19

SIMMETHOD
Oracle’s 2012 to 2014 trend across the indices
of the SIMMETHOD Best In Class showing:
• Competitive strengths,
• Competitive weaknesses,
• Risk levels and
• Opportunities for improvement in order to
become Best In Class and fend off current
and future competitors
8/10/2014 20

SIMMETHOD
2012 to 2014 Business and Industry Trends
8/10/2014
21
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
SIMMETHOD
Sales Index
SIMMETHOD
Assets Index
SIMMETHOD
Overheads
Index
SIMMETHOD
HR Index
SIMMETHOD
Cash/ Debt
Index
SIMMETHOD
Management
Controllable
Resources
Index
SIMMETHOD
Value
Creation
Index
SIMMETHOD
Minimum
Company
Business
Model index
SIMMETHOD
Strategy/
Execution
Performance
Predictive
index
Oracle 2012
Oracle 2013
Oracle 2014
Oracle’s SIMMETHOD Sales Index
continues to be negative. Major
improvements on the Assets, Overheads
and HR Index positively impacted
Oracle’s C-Level Indices

SIMMETHOD
2012 to 2014 Business and Industry Trends
8/10/2014
22
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
SIMMETHOD
Sales Index
SIMMETHOD
Assets Index
SIMMETHOD
Overheads
Index
SIMMETHOD
HR Index
SIMMETHOD
Cash/ Debt
Index
SIMMETHOD
Management
Controllable
Resources
Index
SIMMETHOD
Value
Creation
Index
SIMMETHOD
Minimum
Company
Business
Model index
SIMMETHOD
Strategy/
Execution
Performance
Predictive
index
Oracle 2012
Oracle 2013
Oracle 2014

SIMMETHOD and The Barron’s 500
• Is there a correlation between
the 2014 SIMMETHOD Strategy
& Execution Best In Class and the
Barron’s 500 list?
8/10/2014 23

2013 To 2014 Performance Trend
Name Barron’s 500
SIMMETHOD Strategy &
Predictive Index
Visa ↑ ↑
MasterCard ↑ ↑
Amex ↑ ↑
Accenture ↑ ↓
Time Warner ↑ N/A
Oracle ↑ ↑
United Technology ↑ ↓
Cisco ↑ N/A
Automatic Data Processing ↓ ↑
8/10/2014
24

SIMMETHOD
Trends against the SIMMETHOD Best In Class
Your level of risk increases when:
• Your data points North and the SIMMETHOD
indices point South, or
• Your gap to your peers and the Best In Class is
widening or
• The score of your Strategy & Execution
Performance Predictive Index is not
supported by all the other indices
under management control.
8/10/2014
25

SIMMETHOD’s C-Level Trends 2012-2014
Oracle’s and the Best-In-Class
• When the Best-In-Class and your
SIMMETHOD C-Level indices are
moving in opposite directions, your
ability to compete weakens in
proportion to your widening
gap to the Best-In-Class.

SIMMETHOD
8/10/2014
27
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2012 2013 2014
Average B-I-C
SIMMETHOD Strategy/
Predictive Index
Oracle SIMMETHOD
Strategy/ Execution
Performance
Predictive index

SIMMETHOD
8/10/2014
28
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2012 2013 2014
Average B-I-C
SIMMETHOD Strategy/
Predictive Index
Oracle SIMMETHOD
Strategy/ Execution
index
Although it is trending up, Oracle’s Strategy &
Execution Performance Predictive Index is still
lower than the B-I-C average and the gap to the
Best In Class is widening

SIMMETHOD
8/10/2014
29
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2012 2013 2014
Avg. B-I-C SIMMETHOD
Management Controllable
Resources Index
Oracle SIMMETHOD
Management Controllable
Resources Index
Although still lower than the B-I-C,
Oracle’s management efficiency has
drastically improved against the Best
In Class average

SIMMETHOD
8/10/2014
30
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2012 2013 2014
Management
Index
Oracle SIMMETHOD
Management
Index
Oracle’s resource management is
improving and the gap to the Best
In Class is narrowing

SIMMETHOD
8/10/2014
31
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2012 2013 2014
Value Creation Index
Oracle SIMMETHOD Value
Creation Index

SIMMETHOD
8/10/2014
32
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2012 2013 2014
Oracle SIMMETHOD Value
Creation Index
Oracle’s capacity to create value above
the SIMMETHOD Best in Class average
has taken a hit and although is still in
healthy positive territory, is now moving
in opposite direction to the Best In Class

SIMMETHOD
8/10/2014
33
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2012 2013 2014
Cash/Debt Index
Oracle SIMMETHOD Cash/
Debt Index

SIMMETHOD
8/10/2014
34
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2012 2013 2014
Cash/Debt Index
Oracle SIMMETHOD
Cash/ Debt Index
A widening gap and trend vs. the
SIMMETHOD B-I-C shows a
weakened competitive position and
increased level of risk

Is there a disconnect between your raw
data and your SIMMETHOD indices?
• When your raw data (such as
your sales) is trending up and
your corresponding SIMMETHOD
Sales Index is trending down,
your level of risk is
increasing. Why?

Is there a disconnect between your raw data
and your SIMMETHOD indices?
Unlike raw data (e.g. sales), the SIMMETHOD
Sales Index holistically measures:
The resources necessary to deliver $1 of sales
in relation to peers and the Best In Class and
The contribution of your sales to the health
and value of your business in relation to your
peers and the Best In Class
8/10/2014
36

SIMMETHOD
8/10/2014
37
-2
-1
-1
0
1
1
2
2
3
2012 2013 2014
Avg. B-I-C
SIMMETHOD Sales
Index
Oracle SIMMETHOD
Sales Index

SIMMETHOD
8/10/2014
38
-2
-1
-1
0
1
1
2
2
3
2012 2013 2014
Avg. B-I-C
SIMMETHOD Sales
Index
Oracle SIMMETHOD
Sales Index
Oracle’s SIMMETHOD Sales Index
reflects a weakened competitive
position and trend vs. peers and the
Best In Class and increased risk level

SIMMETHOD
8/10/2014
39
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2012 2013 2014
Avg. B-I-C Overheads
Index
Oracle SIMMETHOD
Overheads Index

SIMMETHOD
8/10/2014
40
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2012 2013 2014
Avg. B-I-C
Overheads Index
Oracle
SIMMETHOD
Overheads Index
Oracle’s Overhead Index is improving vs. peers
and the SIMMETHOD Best in Class positively
impacting all other C-Level indices.

SIMMETHOD
8/10/2014
41
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2012 2013 2014
Avg. B-I-C
SIMMETHOD HR Index
Oracle SIMMETHOD
HR Index

SIMMETHOD
8/10/2014
42
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2012 2013 2014
Avg. B-I-C
SIMMETHOD HR
Index
Oracle SIMMETHOD
HR Index
An improvement in Oracle’s HR Index vs. peers and the Best In Class shows
an increased contribution by HR to business value creation and future
performance

SIMMETHOD
Oracle’s 2013-2014 Gap to the Best In
Class Average
•Is Oracle’s gap to the
Best In Class profiles
narrowing or
widening?
8/10/2014
43

Is there a disconnect between your SIMMETHOD
indices and your gap to the Best In Class profile?
• When your SIMMETHOD indices are
trending up and your gap to the
SIMMETHOD Best In Class profile is
trending down, your C-Level sensors
are presenting you with specific risk
and opportunity alerts.
Why?

Is there a disconnect between your SIMMETHOD
indices and your gap to the Best In Class profile?
Unlike the SIMMETHOD indices that holistically
measure your strategy/execution or competitive
position within a business league table, your gap to
the Best In Class profiles:
Provides a specific C-Level ratio by ratio path to a
moving Best In Class performance and risk
management profile and your pre-established
targets
Provides risk and opportunities alerts that can be
acted upon to reduce the gap to the Best In Class,
improve your performance , competitive advantage
and reduce your risk level
8/10/2014
45

SIMMETHOD
Oracle’s 2013 Gap to the Best In Class Average
Oracle’s 2013
gap to the B-I-C
The average
sales/employee
of the B-I-C is
1.4x higher
8/10/2014
46

SIMMETHOD
Oracle’s 2014
gap to the B-I-C
The average
sales/employee
of the B-I-C is
1.7x higher
8/10/2014
47

SIMMETHOD
Oracle’s 2013
gap to the B-I-C
The average
profit/employee
of the B-I-C is
1.3x higher
8/10/2014
48

SIMMETHOD
Oracle’s 2014
gap to the B-I-C
The average
profit/employee
of the B-I-C is
1.5x higher
8/10/2014
49

SIMMETHOD
Oracle’s 2013 gap
to the B-I-C
On average, the
market values the
employees of the
B-I-C 1.7x higher
8/10/2014
50

SIMMETHOD
Oracle’s 2014 gap
to the B-I-C
On average, the
market values the
employees of the
B-I-C 2.5x higher
8/10/2014
51

SIMMETHOD
Competitive Intelligence
Competitive Intelligence showing:
• Strengths,
• Weaknesses and
• Ability to compete with existing
businesses and potential new
competitors with new business
models, cost structures, distribution
channels and products.
8/10/2014 52

SIMMETHOD Competitive Intelligence
8/10/2014
53
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Average B-I-C SIMMETHOD Strategy/ Execution Performance
Predictive Index
SAP SIMMETHOD Strategy/ Execution Performance Predictive
index
Microsoft SIMMETHOD Strategy/ Execution Performance
Predictive index
Oracle SIMMETHOD Strategy/ Execution Performance
Predictive index
IBM SIMMETHOD Strategy/ Execution Performance Predictive
index
Salesforce SIMMETHOD Strategy/ Execution Performance
Predictive Index
Vmware SIMMETHOD Strategy/ Execution Performance
Predictive Index
Teradata SIMMETHOD Strategy/ Execution Performance
Predictive index
2014
2013
2012
SIMMETHOD
Oracle’s 2014
Gap to the
Best In Class
Average

8/10/2014
54
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Avg. B-I-C SIMMETHOD Value Creation Index
SAP SIMMETHOD Value Creation Index
Microsoft SIMMETHOD Value Creation Index
Oracle SIMMETHOD Value Creation Index
IBM SIMMETHOD Value Creation Index
Salesforce SIMMETHOD Value Creation Index
Teradata SIMMETHOD Value Creation Index
Vmware SIMMETHOD Value Creation Index
2014
2013
2012

Management Controllable Resources Index
8/10/2014
55
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Avg. B-I-C SIMMETHOD Management Controllable
Resources Index
SAP SIMMETHOD Management Controllable Resources
index
Microsoft SIMMETHOD Management Controllable
Resources index
Oracle SIMMETHOD Management Controllable
Resources Index
IBM SIMMETHOD Management Controllable Resources
Index
Salesforce SIMMETHOD Management Controllable
Resources index
Teradata SIMMETHOD Management Controllable Index
Vmware SIMMETHOD Management Controllable
Resources index
2014
2013
2012
Gap to B-I-C’s ability to
leverage resources to
create business value

SIMMETHOD
Competitive Intelligence
8/10/2014
56
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
2014 Aveg. B-I-C
SAP
Microsoft
Oracle
IBM
Salesforce
Vmware
Teradata
B-I-C SIMMETHOD Minimum
Company Business Model Index
B-I-C SIMMETHOD Value Creation
Index
B-I-C SIMMETHOD Management
Controllable Resources Index
B-I-C SIMMETHOD Strategy/
Execution Performance Predictive
Index

SIMMETHOD’s Disclaimer
• The purpose of the SIMMETHOD
Strategy/Execution Performance Predictive
Index and Risk/Opportunities Alerts is not to
make a business right or wrong but rather
contribute towards the understanding of
management actions in comparison to
industry’s peers and the SIMMETHOD
Best In Class.

• SIMMETHOD’s Strategy & Execution
Performance Predictive Index and Risk and
Opportunities Alerts do not seek to be exact
but rather serve as a conduit to ask better
questions and seek better answers in the
performance improvement, risk minimization
and value creation journey.

• Sometimes, the value of a metric in itself
does not provide the greatest of insights, but
valuable actionable knowledge is gained
from its ability to provide a trend or a
common comparison yardstick with other
businesses across a range of
industries.

• This Presentation is for informational
purpose only and SIMMETHOD shall not be
liable for the contents of the Presentation or
for any damage incurred or alleged to be
incurred to any of the businesses included in
the Presentation as a result of its content.

SIMMETHOD Strategy & Execution
In summary, are the:
• Strategy & Execution Performance
Predictive Indices,
• Risk and opportunity alerts and
• 7 Laws of Growth and Value Creation
good leading indicators of IBM’s
threats, opportunities, risk and
performance?

Oracle’s 2014 SIMMETHOD Risk and
Performance Summary Table
Index Value Index trend Trend vs. B-I-C 7 Laws compliance
Sales - - - -
Assets + + + +
Overheads + + + +
HR + + + +
Cash/Debt + + - -
Management
+ + + +
Minimum Company
Business Model
+ + + +
Value Creation + - - -
Strategy & Execution
+ + - -
8/10/2014
62

The SIMMETHOD Algorithm and the 7
Laws of Growth and Value Creation
SIMMETHOD
7 Laws
Integration
/alignment
Benchmarking
inside/outside
your industry
Growth &
value
creation
Resource
contribution
to objectives
Predictive
performance
& risk
Averages &
positive
trends
Minimum
company
/business
model
8/10/2014
63

SIMMETHOD
2014 Industry and Business Trends
• SIMMETHOD’s Strategy & Execution
Performance Predictive Indices and trends
are not deterministic.
• Businesses that act on their SIMMETHOD
leading indicators and risk alerts can improve
their 2014 performance to
Best In Class levels.

SIMMETHOD
Risk and Opportunities Alerts
SIMMETHOD is in the top
1% of most viewed on
Slideshare and has been
“Hot” on LinkedIn,
Twitter and Facebook 50
times.

Jorge Oscar Tabacman
jtabacman@gmail.com
Twitter ID: SIMMETHOD
SIMMETHOD
A new way to measure and predict
the risk and performance of your
business and alert you of new threats
and opportunities

Oracle 2014 Case Study: From real time analytics to self correcting business intelligence and c-level risk alerts

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Oracle 2014 Case Study: From real time analytics to self correcting business intelligence and c-level risk alerts