2019/2020 season final figures and the regional market situation, presentation by Sy Martial Traoré, CILSS

1. RPCA, April 2020
RESTRICTED MEETING
2019/2020 season final
figures and the regional
market situation
by Sy Martial, TRAORE, CILSS

2. Plan
• Background
• 2019/2020 final cereal production figures
• Reviewed cereal food balance for 2019/2020
• 2019/2020 roots and tubers final production figures
• 2019/2020 leguminous final production figures
• Pastoral situation
• Regional nutrition situation
• Regional markets situation
• Focus on impact of Covid-19
• Recommendations

3. Background
• The final production figures for 13 countries out
of 17 countries have been transmetted
• For Cabo Verde, Liberia, Mauritania and Senegal,
the provisional figures have been used for this
presentation
• Summary of fish production
• The PREGEC did not take place;
• Forage balance sheet improvement : Burkina,
Mauritania, Niger, Chad, Senegal

4. 2019/2020 Final cereal production figures
74.17 million mT, increased by 0.4% vs last year and 12.8%
vs average 5years
49.0
58.0
46.2
56.1
46.6
56.355.3
61.2
64.4
67.368.6
73.9
74.2
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
Prodx1,000,000mT
Regional cereal production trend 2007-2019
(millionT)
Countries
Changes vs
Provisionnal
Togo -0,6%
Tchad -1,4%
Gambie -2,5%
Mali -3,9%
Niger -6,5%
Côte d'Ivoire -9,4%
Sierra Leone -20,5%
Burkina Faso 3,0%
Bénin 0,6%
Ghana 8,7%
TOTAL -1,2%

5. 2019/2020 Final cereal production figures
Situation per cereal
Crops 2019/2020 Var19/20 VarMoy5A
Proportions
2019/2020
Proportions Avg
5yrs
Maize 26 775 216 4,2% 21,3% 36% 34%
Rice 21 362 971 0,2% 11,2% 29% 29%
Sorghum 14 836 230 -2,0% 7,5% 20% 21%
Millet 10 416 935 -5,4% 5,1% 14% 15%
Fonio/Acha 709 774 6,9% 9,2% 1% 1%
Wheat-
Barley
75 003 -14,3% -35,0% 0% 0%
Total 74 176 130 0,4% 12,8% 100% 100%

6. 2019/2020 final cereal production
figures
Countries 2019/2020
Production Var18/19 Var 5 yrs Avg
Burkina Faso 5 180 702 0% 15%
Cap Vert 640 -11% -80%
Gambie 84 267 -15% -47%
Guinée Bissau 239 576 7% 16%
Mali 10 451 273 3% 21%
Mauritanie 471 943 15% 32%
Niger 5 298 164 -13% -6%
Sénégal 2 768 405 -4% 27%
Tchad 2 925 293 -3% 6%
SAHEL 27 420 263 -2,3% 12,2%
Production per Countries and zones

7. 2019/2020 final Cereal production
figures
Countries 2019/2020
Production Var18/19 VarMoy5A
Bénin 2 177 787 3% 16%
Côte d'Ivoire 3 145 864 -2% -3%
Guinée 4 273 268 6% 16%
Ghana 4 555 080 30% 52%
Liberia 276 421 7% 1%
Nigeria 29 880 775 0% 12%
Sierra Leone 1 075 311 -29% -15%
Togo 1 372 361 2% 11%
Pays Côtiers 46 756 867 2% 13%
Production per countries and zones

8. 2018/2019 final Cereal production figures
Production per countries and zones
ZONES Production Var18/19 VarMoy5A
UEMOA 30 634 132 -1,9% 11,4%
ECOWAS 70 779 894 0,4% 13,0%
CILSS 38 389 543 -1,0% 11,3%
Eastern Basin 40 282 019 -2,0% 8,9%
Central Basin 24 705 280 5,6% 19,8%
Western Basin 9 189 831 -2,4% 13,1%

9. 2019/2020 Final cereal production
figures
Cereal production per head
Countries
2019/2020
(kg/head/year)
Var 2018/2019 (%) Var 5 ys Average (%)
Burkina Faso 242 4% -4%
Cap Vert 1 -89% -88%
Gambie 38 -58% -65%
Guinée Bissau 119 -1% -4%
Mali 509 11% 41%
Mauritanie 113 60% -42%
Niger 230 -16% 9%
Sénégal 171 15% 42%
Tchad 180 -8% -10%
SAHEL 242 0% 5%

10. 2019/2020 Final cereal production figures
Cereal production per head
Countries
2019/2020
Kg/capita
Var 2018/2019
(%)
Var Average 5yrs(%)
Bénin 178 10% 13%
Côte d'Ivoire 119 -5% -5%
Guinée 340 1% 13%
Ghana 154 47% 47%
Liberia 64 -1% -46%
Nigeria 141 -7% 28%
Sierra Léone 134 0% -25%
Togo 182 3% -2%
Pays Côtiers 155 3% 9%
Ensemble Zone 185 4% 5%

11. Regional Cereal balance Sheet (2019/2020)
Postes Riz/Rice Blé/Wheat
(Mil, sorgho, maïs,
fonio), others cereals Total
419 535 689
Population au 01/04/2020
1. Disponibilités/Availability 14 815 172 403 048 48 294 244 63 512 464
Production brute 2019/2020 21 362 971 73 393 52 740 768 74 177 133
Production disponible 13 762 586 65 611 43 860 990 57 689 187
Sstocks initiaux (opening stock) 1 384 198 337 437 4 438 173 6 159 808
-Socks paysans 174 609 194 322 2 545 345 2 914 276
-Autres stocks 1 068 542 143 115 1 654 934 2 866 591
2. Besoins/ Need 17 868 208 8 294 192 46 004 082 72 166 483
Consommation humaine (Human need) 17 242 333 8 103 343 44 871 427 70 217 103
Stocks finaux (closing stock) 625 875 190 849 1 132 655 1 949 379
-Socks paysans 157 685 76 646 711 676 946 007
-Autres stocks 567 090 114 203 420 979 1 102 272
3. Excédent(+)/Déficit(-) brut -3 053 036 -7 891 144 2 290 162 - 8 654 018
4. Solde import/export 9 947 661 8 770 119 945 249 19 663 029
Importations commerciales (2019/2020) 9 924 676 8 719 779 1 298 625 19 943 080
+ Commerçants privés 9 477 655 8 316 025 889 823 18 683 503
+ Autres importations 473 701 944 951 407 168 1 825 820
Aides alimentaires 31 108 3 714 2 175 36 997
Exportations prévues 34 803 494 571 353 917 883 290
5. Excédent(+)/Déficit(-) net 6 894 625 878 975 3 235 411 11 009 011
6. Disponibilité apparente/HBT(kg) 59 22 117 198

12. Regional Cereal balance Sheet
Entities Rice Wheat
Millet, sorghum,
maize, fonio Total
Zone UEMOA 4411514 -13289 6386987 10785213
Zone ECOWAS 6742098 711910 3265525 10719533
CILSS 5061356 310129 6350958 11722443
Bassin est 3007983 295254 -2976984 326254
Bassin centre 3069428 665901 6537641 10272970
Bassin ouest 817213 -82180 -325246 409787
Countries situations Regional entities
Gross Deficit
Cap vert
Gambie
Guinée-Bissau
Mauritanie
Niger
Sénégal
Nigeria
Libéria
Nigeria
Sierra Leone
Sahelian Countries
Costal Countries
Postes Riz/Rice Blé/Wheat
(Mil, sorgho, maïs,
fonio), others cereals
Total
Burkina Faso -16599 2533 1197032 1182965
Cap Vert 5831 -1136 -30875 -26180
Gambie 5528 -280 -143252 -138004
Guinée Bissau -71172 1426 -29895 -99641
Mali 638390 62780 3747460 4448630
Mauritanie 85401 189336 -53537 221200
Niger 151983 -104906 543997 591074
Sénégal 240683 -372728 166749 34704
Tchad 67126 -22271 23423 68278
SAHEL 1107171 -245246 5421101 6283026
Bénin 1467351 23995 168231 1659577
Côte d'Ivoire 1801974 280388 538781 2621144
Guinée 485956 157769 168212 811937
Ghana 446760 226976 999735 1673471
Liberia -40452 -57438 -21748 -119638
Nigeria 1321523 398436 -3712635 -1992675
Sierra Leone 105438 871 -380900 -274590
Togo 198904 93223 54633 346760
Pays Côtiers 5787454 1124221 -2185690 4725985
TOTAL 6894625 878975 3235411 11009011

13. Roots and Tubers production final figure (2019/2020)
Crops
Production
Million mT
Var. 2018/2019
(%)
Var. Average 5yrs (%)
Cassava 98 770 774 0,0% 15,0%
Yam 73 559 711 1,5% 13,6%
Sweet potato 6 421 169 4,3% 21,9%
Irish potato 1 917 591 5,4% 23,9%
Coco yam 9 805 575 1,0% 69,0%
Total 190 474 820 0,8% 16,7%
190 474 820 T; 0.8% VS 2018/2019 and 16.7% vs Moy5ans
-0.3% VS Provisonnal (Mali -44%, TD -5%; SL-78% ; GH+8%)

14. Roots and Tubers production final figure (2019/2020)
SCrops ECOWAS CILSS UEMOA
Production Var18/19 VarMoy5A Production Var18/19
VarMoy5
A
Production Var18/19
VarMoy5
A
Cassava 98 473 798 3% 19%15 467 854 3% 19%13 010 260 3% 19%
Yam 73 559 711 6% 7%12 013 955 6% 7%11 790 079 6% 7%
S potato 6 203 845 -16% 11%1 159 616 -16% 11%652 664 -16% 11%
I potato 1 917 591 5% 168%667 591 12% 168%467 015 12% 168%
Coco yam 9 780 439 -2% -14%249 700 -2% -14%112 632 -2% -14%
Total 189 935 384 3% 19%29 558 716 4% 14%26 032 650 4% 14%
Production per zone (Tonnes)

15. Leguminous and oil seeds final production figure
(2019/2020)
Spéculations Production Var18/19 VarMoy5A
Groudnut 10 168 435 -1,00% 20,90%
Cotton 2 886 012 9,13% 15,12%
Cowpea 8 264 563 0,95% 14,10%
Sesame 1 171 834 7,26% -0,85%
Sojabean 1 481 444 1,02% 5,16%
Wandzou/BambaraNut 217 726 8,80% 41,09%

16. Cash products final production figure (2019/2020)
Spéculations Production Var18/19 VarMoy5A
Cacao* 10 168 435 2% -5%
Coffee* 2 886 012 -18% -5%
Rubber* 8264563 22% 61%
Cajau Nut* 1171834 -15% -1%
Plantain* 1481444 1% 5%
*Only for some countries,

17. Fisher productions
Fish production (tonnes)
Countries 2018 2019
Changes Vs
2012
Gambie 54 434 51 710 -5%
Mali 103 140 116 347 13%
Bénin 28 984 38 233 32%
Ghana 452 679 475 424 5%
Togo 24 910 22 590 -9%
TOTAL 663 835 703 984 6%
Marine, Inland fish catch and aquaculture

18. Pastoral situation
Pastoral condition:
Production :Good compared to last year
80% of pasture zones productivity are good in Sahelian zone
High mortality of livestock last year
Transhumance : Early than usual (Mr, SN, ML, NE) and more difficult
Accessibility of pasture zone are very difficult : Liptako Gourma, Niger and Mali border;
Lac Chad zones
Bilans pastoraux : Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Sénégal

19. Nutritional situation
In the Sahel (9), 2.5 million children U5 are expected to severely acutely
malnourished, of which 30% are in the 3 countries of the Central-Sahel.
In recent years, and despite massive investments, no significant improvement has been
observed in the prevalence of wasting in the Sahel. Serious levels of GAM (≥10%) and
SAM (≥2%) persist at national level in several countries (Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria,
Senegal and Chad), while large disparities exist at sub-national level.
In the Central-Sahel especially, the already precarious nutritional situation of U5
children and mothers, could deteriorate further in 2020 due to the complex context of
generalized civil insecurity, massive displacement of population, limited access to basic
social services and reduction of humanitarian space.
The recent COVID-19 outbreak poses major threats on nutritional status of children
and mothers in the West and Central Africa region. The region faces multiple underlying
vulnerabilities, including food insecurity, undernutrition, and disease burden such as malaria
coupled by high levels of poverty which places the population at higher risk of infection. At
this stage, there are still many unknowns, however, the humanitarian community is fully
committed to limit spreading out of the disease, to anticipate as much as possible the
primary and secondary impacts on nutritional status of populations, and to adapt
programs/operation in accordance with national directives.

20. Regional markets situations
Context
Good cereal production compare to last
year and average; Except in 6: SL, GM,
SN, CV, NE
Persistence of inflation in many
countries in the region (SL, LI, NG,
GH, GN, GB);;
Persistence of civil insecurity in several
parts of the regional:
• In the Lake Chad area
• In the north of Mali
• In the Liptako Gourma area
• Niger and Mali borders
Market supply
Overall level of cereal supplies is
improving because of good
harvest and imported
products available in the market;
Market stock levels are good
because of carry over stock;
Market demand
The demand is stable at regional
level: but more high in western
basin (local cereal) compare to
eastern and central basins when it
is low compare to supply.
Now
Covid-19

21. -1-.50.51
Maize Millet Sorghum Local Rice Imported Rice
Regional markets situations
Cereal price
0:4% 1:6% -4:1% 7:12% 5-10%
Overall increase in cereal prices (3.3 – 7.8%), all the crop are concerned
Commodities Maize Millet Sorghum Local Rice Imported Rice
Nov 19 -9.2 : -5.8% -10.2 : -5.2% -10.4 : -4,2% 7.6 : 13.5% 8.5 - 14.1%
Mar 19 -1:3% -1:4% -7: 2% 3-7% 2-5%
Jun 19 -0.8 : 3.9% -0.8 : 4.4% -2.5 :3.5% 4.3 : 9.8% 5.3 : 10%
Nb markets
MA: 291
MI: 279
SB: 279
RID: 202
RIO: 293
Total:332

22. Regional markets situations
Composite prices of cereals
Average per country
Cereals prices changes vs 5 years averages
Countries
5 years
Changes
Cap Vert -3,1%
Gambie 10,3%
GUINEE 2,9%
GUINEE BISSAU -7,4%
LIBERIA 64,3%
MAURITANIE 7,1%
SENEGAL 12,1%
SIERRA LEONE 39,4%
Western basin
BURKINA FASO -12,3%
COTE D'IVOIRE 2,3%
GHANA 9,7%
MALI -7,5%
TOGO -0,7%
Central basin
NIGER 3,6%
BENIN 0,2%
NIGERIA 25,0%
TCHAD -10,0%
Esatern basin

23. Regional markets situations
Cereals prices changes vs 5 years averages
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
P.100ofchangecompareto5yearsaverage
CHANGES IN CEREAL PRICES IN WEST AFRICA SAHEL
VS 5 YEARS AVERAGE AND AGREATED (FOOD STANTARDS AND POPULATION)
West Sah Western basin Eastern basin Central basin

24. -2%
9% 12%
115%
59%
25.8%
14%
26%
18%
12%
20%
3% 2%
18.4%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
BENIN COTE D'IVOIRE GHANA LIBERIA MALI NIGERIA SIERRA LEONE
Yam Cassava Plantain
Roots, tubers plantain prices variations (vs 5year average)
Regional markets situations

25. Regional markets situations
Cash crop products prices variations (vs 5year average)
6%
12%
12%
18%
24%
5%
-5%
19%
29%
51%
5%
-3%
17%
-9%
3%
-22% -22%
15%
56%
9%
18%
56%
-1%
-4%
17%
4% 2% 2%
10%
6%
-4%
6%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
BE BF CI GM GH GN GB ML NE NG SE SL
G/Nut Cowpea Sesame Soyabean Fonio/Acha Voandzou Onion

26. Regional markets situations
Livestock prices variations : Jan - Feb vs average 5years
-1%
-5%
25%
-11%
12%
-1%
-12%
25%
6%
34%
2%
-3% -11%
-8%
26%
6%
-2%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Mali Burkina SL Senegal Tchad Niger
Cattle Goat Sheep Camel

27. The advent of covid-19
Social distancing measures, closures of markets, borders and other
measures put in place by States to contain the spread of the disease further
disrupt the market situation established for the period from January to
February 2020 (market mission)
This situation will undoubtedly lead to a slowdown in intra-regional flows and an
increase in road harassment through the number of checkpoints and snowshoes
of all kinds.
Reduction of internal flows from production areas to centers due to psychosis and
curfews in progress in several cities and probably imports of rice and other basic
products
he increasingly difficult access of households to the basic foodstuff on the one
hand, because of the foreseeable increase in the prices of basic necessities and
on the other hand through the decline in the purchasing power of households.
Indeed, the vast majority depend on small informal economic activities which are
all stopped
Furthermore, it should be recalled that in most countries of the region, part of the
households had adapted adaptation strategies based on crisis feeding and
strategies based on livelihoods from crisis to emergency.

28. The advent of covid-19
On the economic level, several of the region already had persistent difficult economic situations
(SL, LI) and others were in the process of recovery (GH, NG, GM), this situation will exacerbate the
economic difficulties of all the States and health actions will necessarily take on food and
preservation of livelihoods aspects
Finally, the situation spares no country, internationally, the rise in prices of imported foodstuffs is
also predictable: imported rice and manufactured products..
In terms of impact depending on the sensitivity of the countries. 3 groups of countries could be
formed:
• Countries with high rice consumption and strong dependence on imports: MR, LI, SL, GB, GM, a
more difficult situation;
• Countries with a large agricultural production capacity and / or a large economic capacity: CI,
SN, GH, CV, TG, GN, BE, NE, if they implement a system of correct rediscounts will be better
able to come out of it
• Countries already weakened by security crises, pastoral for several years will be much more
impacted. These are the countries of the Sahel: BF, ML, NE, TD
It will all depend on the duration of the situation. Even if the region has large stocks cleared by the
cereal balance sheets, this assumes that the six months remaining for imports are not affected.
That the situation does not force the wealthiest households to store more..

29. The other shock elements
Le péril acridien qui menace les pays de la région;
he locust danger threatening the countries of the region;
The 2020/2021 crop year is already under threat. In the southern part of
the coastal countries the campaign has already started with regard to
the measures in progress, the long season in the bimodal zones could
be negatively affected;
State investments for the preparation of the agricultural campaign have
dropped considerably in certain countries in favor of security aspects
(Sahel countries) or because of economic or political problems as is the
case in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea etc..

30. Recommendations
1. The current information systems must be rapidly
strengthened for close and real-time monitoring of the
markets
2. • A more in-depth analysis of the agricultural and food
situation is needed in Sierra Leone and Liberia
3. • An update as soon as possible of the market
missions in the most affected

31. Many thanks for your attention!