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Are South Hills Crossbills declining with increasing temperatures?
1. Are
South
Hills
Crossbills
Declining
with
Increasing
Temperatures?
Julie
Hart
Master’s
Defense
Zoology
&
Physiology
29
April
2013
2. INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
EXTINCTION
RISK
..............................................................
Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas1
, Alison Cameron1
, Rhys E. Green2
, Michel Bakkenes3
,
Linda J. Beaumont4
, Yvonne C. Collingham5
, Barend F. N. Erasmus6
,
Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira7
, Alan Grainger8
, Lee Hannah9
,
Lesley Hughes4
, Brian Huntley5
, Albert S. van Jaarsveld10
,
Guy F. Midgley11
, Lera Miles8
*, Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta12
,
A. Townsend Peterson13
, Oliver L. Phillips8
& Stephen E. Williams14
1
Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation, School of Biology, University of Leeds,
Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
2
areas7–12
. This ‘climate envelope’ re
which populations of a species cu
competitors and natural enemies.
mated by assuming that current env
projected for future climate scenario
either has no limits to dispersal su
becomes the entire area projected by
that it is incapable of dispersal, in wh
the overlap between current and fut
example, species with little dispers
landscapes)11
. Reality for most speci
extremes.
le
The responsiveness of species to recent1–3
an
change raises the possibility that anthropogenic
could act as a major cause of extinctions in the nea
Earth set to become warmer than at any period in t
(ref. 6). Here we use projections of the future
1,103 animal and plant species to provide ‘first-p
extinction probabilities associated with climate cha
2050.
For each species we use the modelled association
climates (such as temperature, precipitation
and present-day distributions to estimate curre
NATURE | VOL 427 | 8 JANUARY 2004 | www.nature.com/nature
3. South
Hills
(Type
9)
AFLP VARIATION IN CROSSBILLS 1
AFLP VARIATION IN CROSSBILLS 1881
overlapping clusters when the analysis was restricted
ed crossbills.
nly three of nine comparisons of different geographic
ples within call types revealed significant genetic
erentiation, which contrasts with the relatively high
mber of comparisons that were significant between call
es (25 of 28 comparisons; Fisher’s exact test, P = 0.002).
significant within-call-type comparisons were between
type 2 in the Black Hills, South Dakota, and both the
dia Mountains, New Mexico (FST = 0.057, P < 0.05), and
samples of call type 2 from different geographic loc
(Fig. 1) indicates that the vast majority of variat
found within location (97%) but that a significant a
of variation (3.1%) was due to differences among loc
which was lower than the 7% explained by diffe
among call types (Table 3). Finally, different geog
samples within call types 1, 2, and 5 grouped tog
in the upgma dendrogram (Fig. 4), suggesting g
continuity within these call types, whereas th
geographically separate samples of call type 7 d
4 upgma phylogram reflecting relative genetic distances based on pairwise estimates of Nei’s D among different recognized
uded in this study and eight call types of the red crossbill complex including samples from two geographic samples of call typ
7, and four geographic samples of call type 2 (BP, Bears Paw Mountains; NM, New Mexico; BH, Black Hills; LR, Little Rocky Mou
the samples taken in 2000 and 2001 distinguished as LRa and LRb, respectively). Values at the nodes represent bootstrap suppor
000 replicates; values < 50% are not shown. A representative head and, where known, a cone of the conifer on which each c
ializes is shown. Heads and cones are from figures in Benkman (1987b, 1999), Parchman & Benkman (2002) and Farjon & Styles
bill sizes and cones altered to reflect relative sizes among the different crossbills and conifers, respectively. Cones from top to
Pinus occidentalis, Picea mariana, Pinus contorta latifolia from South Hills, Pinus ponderosa scopulorum, Pinus contorta latifolia
ophylla, Pseudotsuga menziesii menziesii, and Picea rubens. Call type 4 is associated with Pseudotsuga m. menziesii.
4 upgma phylogram reflecting relative genetic distances based on pairwise estimates of Nei’s D among different recognized
ded in this study and eight call types of the red crossbill complex including samples from two geographic samples of call typ
7, and four geographic samples of call type 2 (BP, Bears Paw Mountains; NM, New Mexico; BH, Black Hills; LR, Little Rocky Mou
the samples taken in 2000 and 2001 distinguished as LRa and LRb, respectively). Values at the nodes represent bootstrap suppor
ylogram reflecting relative genetic distances based on pairwise estimates of Nei’s D among different recognized species
tudy and eight call types of the red crossbill complex including samples from two geographic samples of call types 1, 5,
ographic samples of call type 2 (BP, Bears Paw Mountains; NM, New Mexico; BH, Black Hills; LR, Little Rocky Mountains,
taken in 2000 and 2001 distinguished as LRa and LRb, respectively). Values at the nodes represent bootstrap support based
phylogram reflecting relative genetic distances based on pairwise estimates of Nei’s D among different recognized species
his study and eight call types of the red crossbill complex including samples from two geographic samples of call types 1, 5,
Type
2
Type
3
Type
4
Type
5
Type
1
ig. 4 upgma phylogram reflecting relative genetic distances based on pairwise estimates of Nei’s D among different recogniz
ncluded in this study and eight call types of the red crossbill complex including samples from two geographic samples of call
nd 7, and four geographic samples of call type 2 (BP, Bears Paw Mountains; NM, New Mexico; BH, Black Hills; LR, Little Rocky M
with the samples taken in 2000 and 2001 distinguished as LRa and LRb, respectively). Values at the nodes represent bootstrap sup
INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
RED
CROSSBILL
Birds
of
North
America
4. SOUTH
HILLS
CROSSBILL
INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
Proposed
species
based
on:
• Deeper
bill
• Unique
call
type
• Resident
• Seasonal
nesYng
• Low
hybridizaYon
• GeneYc
differenYaYon
Benkman
et
al.
2009,
Condor
5. INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
STUDY
AREA
South
Hills:
1530
km2
in
area
65
km2
lodgepole
pine
6. INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
STUDY
AREA
ElevaYon:
1277
to
2457
m
7. INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
PREVIOUS
FINDINGS
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Year
Crossbilldensity(individuals/km2)
Year
San;steban
et
al.
2012,
Journal
of
Animal
Ecology
63%
decline
R2
=
0.97,
P
<
0.001
8. HYPOTHESIS
Warmer
temperatures
cause
seroYnous
cones
to
open
and
drop
their
seed,
reducing
the
amount
of
food
for
crossbills
and
leading
to
their
decline.
INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
Less
food
9. RESEARCH
QUESTIONS
• Is
crossbill
density
conYnuing
to
decrease?
• Do
changes
in
survival
account
for
the
observed
changes
in
density?
• Is
crossbill
survival
related
to
climate?
• Is
cone
producYvity
decreasing?
INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
10. RESEARCH
QUESTIONS
INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
• Is
crossbill
density
conYnuing
to
decrease?
• Do
changes
in
survival
account
for
the
observed
changes
in
density?
• Is
crossbill
survival
related
to
climate?
• Is
cone
producYvity
decreasing?
12. • 10-‐minute
counts
with
distance
sampling
• 1041
birds
in
6660
minutes
of
observaYon
• Analyzed
with
standard
methods
including
a
correcYon
factor
for
detectability
• Used
program
DISTANCE
to
esYmate
density
INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
POINT
COUNT
ANALYSIS
15. RESEARCH
QUESTIONS
INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
• Is
crossbill
density
conYnuing
to
decrease?
• Do
changes
in
survival
account
for
the
observed
changes
in
density?
• Is
crossbill
survival
related
to
climate?
• Is
cone
producYvity
decreasing?
19. 1. Used
program
MARK
2. Modeled
capture
probability
– 𝜌
~
year
+
sex
– higher
for
males
than
females
3. Modeled
survival
probability
– ɸ
=
𝒇(year,
sex)
– model-‐averaged
INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
MARK
ANALYSIS
22. SURVIVAL
&
DENSITY
INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
PopulaYon
ProjecYon
• Life
table
analysis
• Constant
fecundity
and
juvenile
survival
• EsYmated
density
with
model-‐averaged
adult
survival
Year
Crossbilldensity(individualskm−2
)
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
23. SURVIVAL
&
DENSITY
INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
PopulaYon
ProjecYon
• Life
table
analysis
• Constant
fecundity
and
juvenile
survival
• EsYmated
density
with
model-‐averaged
adult
survival
Year
Crossbilldensity(individualskm−2
)
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● Projected from survival
24. SURVIVAL
&
DENSITY
INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Year
Crossbilldensity(individualskm−2
)
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Point count estimate
Projected from survival
PopulaYon
ProjecYon
• Life
table
analysis
• Constant
fecundity
and
juvenile
survival
• EsYmated
density
with
model-‐averaged
adult
survival
25. RESEARCH
QUESTIONS
INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
• Is
crossbill
density
conYnuing
to
decrease?
• Do
changes
in
survival
account
for
the
observed
changes
in
density?
• Is
crossbill
survival
related
to
climate?
• Is
cone
producYvity
decreasing?
26. CLIMATE
COVARIATES
Variable
Variable
definiYon
NHOT(X)
number
of
hot
(≥32°C),
dry
(<1
mm)
days
(unweighted
and
weighted
lags
of
1-‐5
years)
MSPR
mean
spring
temperature
(Mar
–
May)
MSUM
mean
summer
temperature
(Jun
–
Aug)
MANN
mean
annual
temperature
between
captures
(Jul
–
Jun)
MNBY
mean
temperature
in
non-‐breeding
year
(Sep
-‐
Mar)
NCW
number
of
cold
(<5°C),
wet
(>1
mm)
days
USGS
NRCS
SNOTEL
data,
1989-‐current
2
km
from
banding
site
INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
28. ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Mean temperature °C (September − March)
Apparentadultsurvival
−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
LOWER
SURVIVAL
WITH
WARMER
TEMPS
R2
=
0.55,
P
<
0.009
INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Number of hot, dry days over previous five years
Apparentadultsurvival
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
R2
=
0.52,
P
<
0.012
Number
of
hot,
dry
days
over
5
previous
years
Mean
temperature
(°C)
(September
–
March)
Apparent
survival
29. RESEARCH
QUESTIONS
INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
• Is
crossbill
density
conYnuing
to
decrease?
• Do
changes
in
survival
account
for
the
observed
changes
in
density?
• Is
crossbill
survivorship
related
to
climate?
• Is
cone
producYvity
decreasing?
32. 1. PopulaYon
is
sYll
declining
2. Changes
in
adult
survival
account
for
decline
3. Warmer
temperatures
decrease
survival
4. Cone
producYvity
is
likely
not
contribuYng
to
populaYon
decline
INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
SUMMARY
Supports
main
hypothesis
33. INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
MORE
HOT
DAYS
globalchange.gov
1961-‐1971
2080-‐2099
34. Current 2020
2050 2080
c d
Fig. 5 a–d Prediction of lodgepole pine distribution under current climate and the three future 30-
324 Climatic Change (2011) 105:313–328
Current 2020
a b
INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
LODGEPOLE
PINE
DISTRIBUTION
Coops
and
Waring
2011,
Clima;c
Change
Current
2080
35. • Curb
global
warming
INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
MANAGEMENT
ACTIONS
PopulaYon
projecYon
using
demographic
data
from
2001-‐2007
0 50 100 150 200
01000200030004000
Year
Meancrossbillabundance
Mean
of
2000
simulaYons
Mean
Crossbill
Abundance
Years
ExYnct
in
50
years
36. Reciprocal Selection between Crossbills and Pine
Figure 1: Distribution of lodgepole pine (black), locations of study sites, and representative red crossbills (Loxia curvirostra complex) and c
the Rocky Mountains (lower right), in the Cypress Hills (upper right), and in the South Hills and Albion Mountains (lower left; modifie
Benkman 1999). The crossbills and cones are drawn to relative scale. Red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) are found throughout the r
lodgepole pine except in some isolated mountains, including the South Hills (SH), Albion Mountains (AM), and Little Rocky Mountain
Tamiasciurus were absent from the Cypress Hills (CH) until they were introduced in 1950.
South
Hills
Type
5
• Curb
global
warming
• Assisted
migraYon
INTRODUCTION
Ÿ
ABUNDANCE
Ÿ
SURVIVAL
Ÿ
CLIMATE
Ÿ
CONES
Ÿ
CONCLUSIONS
MANAGEMENT
ACTIONS
38. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Field
Assistants
• Bayasa
Amgalen
• Jeff
Garcia
• Michael
Hague
• Don
Jones
• Garrey
MacDonald
• James
Maley
• Carolyn
Miller
• Daniel
Schlaepfer
• Michael
Woodruff
• Charlie
Wright
Funding
• US
EPA
STAR
• American
Ornithologists’
Union
• Berry
Biodiversity
Center
• Program
in
Ecology
• WYGISC
GITA
• Wyoming
Chapter
of
The
Wildlife
Society
• Zoology
and
Physiology
Department
Commiyee
• Craig
Benkman
• Merav
Ben-‐David
• Daniel
Tinker
Photo
Credits
• Gary
Dewaghe
• Roger
Garber
• Nasim
Mansurov
• Nick
Neely
• Dennis
Paulson
• Lloyd
Spitalnik
• USFWS
Thank you Craig for the introduction and thank you all for coming to the brown bag. Today I will be presenting my thesis work and the title of my presentation is “Are South Hills Crossbills declining with increasing temperatures?”
We are all familiar with climate change and we are discovering increasing evidence of the threats this poses to biodiversity. These are two iconic species that people in our department study and are declining due to climate warming—the polar bear and American pika. Some scientists fear that we are actually entering a period of mass extinction. Today, I’d like to introduce you to another species that is declining due to climate warming.
The Red Crossbill is a type of finch that is easily recognizable by its crossed mandibles which it uses to consume seeds from the cones of conifers. Crossbills are really unique in that they are nomadic and move around throughout the year to track emerging cone crops and breed when find good cone crops. This is a map of their geographic distribution. You can see that their range matches pretty closely to the range of conifer forests. Craig has shown that within this range there are multiple types of crossbills that have adapted to different types of conifers. Here are a few examples. You can see that the size of their bill--how deep the bill is—varies with the size of the cones and scales. The bottom two types both use lodgepole but they have very different bill sizes.
Type 9 = Pinus contorta latifolia from South Hills = Rocky Mountain Lodgepole Pine
Type 5 = Pinus contorta latifolia = Rocky Mountain Lodgepole Pine
Type 4 = Pseudotsuga menziesii menziesii = Douglas fir
Type 3 = Tsuga heterophylla = Western Hemlock
Type 2 = Pinus ponderosa scopulorum = Ponderosa Pine
Type 1 = Picea rubens = Red spruce
So you may remember from 2 weeks ago when Matt Talluto presented his PHD research that lodgepole pine have serotinous cones and that this is an adaptation to fire. Serotiny just means that the cones are closed (as you see here) and the seeds are retained in the cones until high heat conditions occur. In the South Hills, where there are no red squirrels, the main predator on these closed cones are crossbills. In this photo on the bottom you can see a female crossbill using her crossed mandibles to pry open a lodgepole pine cone and extracting the seed with her tongue. Craig has documented a coevolutionary arms race in the South Hills between the lodgepole pine and crossbills where the lodgepole pine are developing thicker and larger scales on their cones to prevent predation from crossbills and the crossbills are responding by evolving larger bills to get into those cones. This evolutionary process is making the South Hills Crossbill more and more distinct from the other types of Red Crossbills. In fact, in 2009 Craig and colleagues published a paper recommending they be recognized as a separate species.
So let’s zoom in a bit more to the home of the South Hills Crossbill. The SHCR occurs in two small mountain ranges in south-central Idaho, right on the border with Nevada and Utah. These two areas are the South Hills and Albions. The outer boundary is the Sawtooth National Forest boundary and the small green patches are all the lodgepole pine. All the lodgepole pine occupies an area of 70 km2. I focused my study on the South Hills, this portion on the left where about 65km2 of lodgepole pine occur.
Another thing to note about the habitat at the site is just how patchy the forest is. The South Hills are very topographically rich and the forest occurs in small patches interspersed with sagebrush. So the only really suitable habitat for the crossbill are the actual patches of lodgepole, where they nest and forage. Also, the lodgepole pine in the South Hills has a rate of about 92% serotiny. Remember that serotinous cones are an adaptation for fire and that the cones typically stay on the tree until exposed to high heat. This creates a great food resource for the crossbills because they forage on cones that are about 5-8 years old, so they have weathered a little bit and it’s easier to open the scales and extract the seeds. Here you see a crossbill sitting in a mature lodgepole with many years of cones retained on the branches.
Craig has been studying this population since 1998. Previous work by Craig and former students has shown that this population is declining rapidly. Here you see density declining from 2003-2008. The population declined by 63% in just 6 years.
The main hypothesis of why the SHCR is declining is that their food supply is being reduced by climate change. As it gets warmer, the temperature experienced by the cones increases enough that they open. And when they open the seeds fall out of the cones. Once the seeds fall out onto the ground, the crossbills cannot find them so there is less food for them. So as the cones open up, there are fewer crossbills.
So for my research, I explored this hypothesis by asking the following questions.
So let’s start with the first question…
In order to get at crossbill abundance, I conducted point counts at 74 sites across the SH in lodgepole forest. The green here represents lodgepole and the red dots are the point count locations. As you can see, they are spread across the core part of their range.
The point counts were 10 minutes with all crossbills detected in those 10 minutes recorded. The distance to the location of the birds when they were first detected was measured with a laser range finder so that I could use distance sampling analysis.
Mornings, JULY-AUGUST, 2003-2012
I found that from 2003 to 2012 SHCR has continued to decline quite precipitously. 2009 was excluded because incorrect protocol was used. Dropped by 75% from 277 to 71 birds / km2 in just 10 years. What this amounts to is about a 14% decline annually.
To put this in perspective, the Bicknell’s Thrush is declining at a rate of between 7 and 19%, Cerulean Warblers about 3% a year, and Rusty Blackbirds at least 10% a year. Each of these species are of high conservation concern, are recognized as Vulnerable by the IUCN (International Union for the Conservation of Nature), and working groups have developed for each of these species to prevent their extinction.
The second question I asked was….
In order to answer that question, I first had to estimate survival. A well-established way to estimate survival is to use a mark-recapture study. Mark-recapture study means that you catch a bunch of birds, put some sort of unique identifying marker on them, and then either recapture them or resight them in the field to track their survival over time. So I captured birds in a mist net, put unique F&WS bands and colored band combinations on them, took a slieu of measurements, recorded their call type on release to make sure they were South Hills type, and then resighted or recaptured them in future years. This is a photo from a wildlife camera trap I set out the last few years to increase the number of resights.
So what I ended up with is some data that looked something like this. Make it clear that this is example data. Walk through line by line…we can estimate the likelihood that Bird3 was alive in years 2, 3, and 4 based on all the capture histories. But actually, if we see a bird in any given year, it not only has to be alive (survival probability) but also has to be recaptured or resighted, so we also get an estimate of capture probability. Both survival and capture probability can be modeled as a function of year and sex.
I used a program called MARK to analyze my data. MARK analysis is conducted in an information theory framework so I selected models using AIC.
Since I was more interested in survival than capture probability, I first simplified the recapture part of my model and then looked at survival.
Recapture: p~time+sex, what this means is that the capture probability varies by year and that male capture probability is consistently higher than for females
Survival: then I modeled survival, but there was no clear best model so I used model-averaging to come up with
Here is what I found for survival probability…
There was no clear best model to predict survival, so I model-averaged across all the survival models I tested. These are the results, survival on the y-axis and year on the x-axis. There was no linear trend over time, but if you look at just the means (the dots) it looks like the first few years were relatively high, then it was low, and the last year was higher. Perhaps this period of low survival was enough to cause the decline I showed you earlier.
To find out, I projected what the density of crossbills would be given the adult survival rate. I used the first year of density from the point counts to calculate what fecundity had to be to create a stable population. I then held fecundity and juvenile survival constant while I calculated what the next year’s density would be based on the adult survival estimate I got from the capture-recapture analysis.
Here are the projections, clearly a decline.
And it matches well with the density I calculated independently using the point count data.
So we know that the population is declining based on two different estimates and that adult survival could be causing this decline. Is adult survival linked to climate?
Fortunately there is a weather station in the center of the South Hills <2km from the place we band and it has been collecting temperature and precipitation data continuously since 1989.
I used these data to calculate annual climate covariates.
Number of hot dry days (90F) (this was calculated using time lags of 1-5 years both in unweighted and weighted fashion for each time lag for a total of 15 covariates)
Mean spring
Mean summer
Mean annual
Mean non-breeding
Number cold wet days (40F)
I again used program MARK to include climate as a covariate for survival. Remind people what phi and p mean. P is the best model. Phi is only one climate covariate. These are the top 6 models and I included the year model and constant models for comparison. The top two models are clearly better than than a simple year-effect. deltaAIC <2 indicates strong support for those models, which corresponds with the weight in the next column. The last column shows how much of the variation in survival is accounted for by the climate covariate and is calculated based on deviance.
If I plot survival against mean temperature in the nonbreeding season, we can see that there is indeed a very strong relationship.
Compare that to the second best model, the number of hot days, which also shows a strong relationship.
So it looks like indeed survival is related to climate.
Lastly, I asked if cone productivity was decreasing because if there are fewer cones then that would likely explain the decline in crossbills.
Because lodgepole pine retains its cones, and no squirrels removing cones, there is a record of cone production. I was able to count the number of cones produced each year. I used annual scars on the branches to differentiate between years.
This is what I found. There does not seem to be a decline in cone productivity. So we probably don’t have to worry about that for now.
I can interpret these findings in that they are consistent with my main hypothesis.
Not only average temp but number hot days will increase
Why don’t they migrate? As mentioned in intro, they are resident and not competitive with other crossbill types for other food resources
Is there anything we can do to prevent them from going extinct?
Genotype of lodgepole
I captured adult males and females. I also captured and marked juveniles. A portion of the birds have a disease called scaley-leg mites. It makes their skin rough, can cause swelling, and they can even lose some of their toes, so we couldn’t put metal bands on them, only larger plastic bands so we didn’t cause further aggravation to their legs. For a number of reasons I won’t be talking about the juveniles or mite birds today.