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What man can do and AI cannot.
- 1. What man can do and AI cannot. --The expectation of “Singularity will come by 2045” is not plausible. -- Mizuhiro Kaimai
- 2. Model of a Simple Job A simple job can be modelled generically as below. If circumstances meet a specified condition, then you should take a specific action. circumstances condition action Job 2
- 3. Technological Definition of Job Model The job model can be defined as a set of technological elements as described below. Functions which humans do in a job can be categorized as those three types. circumstances condition action Job observing judging manipulating sensors actuators Technological Elements Devices for acquiring information of circumstances: cameras, thermometers, ammeters, etc. Devices which can control something outside of them: motors, lights, speakers, etc. 3
- 4. In the View of Interaction Environments observing judging manipulating sensors actuators Technological Elements The elements can be understood in a view of interaction with outside environments as below. These are the peripheral devices which perform actual interaction with the outside environments. Then, they need to have physical instruments. These functions can be implemented as software modules, no need to have physical instruments. Interaction 4
- 5. How Many Jobs Can AI Do? observing judging manipulating sensors actuators Technological Elements of “Job” In the age without IT, man did all the below functions. How many jobs can AI do? However, AI technology have improved greatly and will continue much more: some of the human roles will become replaceable by AI technology. 5
- 6. What Kinds of Jobs Are Replaceable? In order to solve the question, you have to think about an issue so called “The Frame Problem”. circumstances condition action Job observing judging manipulating sensors actuators Technological Elements AI A job with a clearly defined frame … … can be described in technical languages and instruments. So it can be implemented by using AI. In other words, Only the job with a clear frame can be replaceable by AI. However, you probably have another question: What does the word “Frame” mean? 6
- 7. Example of “Frame” The following figure shows two typical cases of jobs with a clear frame and without it. Weight of an egg of chicken. Between 58grams and 64grams. Classify it as medium size. circumstances condition action Mission: classifying eggs by their weight. no clear definition no clear definition no clear definition circumstances condition action Mission: satisfying the customers of a restaurant. Job with a clear frame. Job without a clear frame. Such jobs are replaceable with AI. 7
- 8. Image of “Clear Frame” You have to choose some essential attributes to define a clear frame. Weight of an egg of chicken. Clear frame. Real object Observable attributes Weight Color Shape Hardness Freshness ….etc. Focuses on a few attributes only. Egg Let’s call this “Framing” Framing is an activity that selects some valuable attributes among many. 8
- 9. “Framing” in Other Words Framing is an activity which restricts the range of awareness. Real world gives you a lot of information like the all things shown in the figure below. However, what you have to look at now is just inside this frame. 9
- 10. Framing and AI Thus, the relation between framing and AI can be illustrated as below. All acquirable information Framing job AI Properly framed data Input Technological implementation Properly framed data is acceptable as input to a technological implementation (AI) of a job. definition Adequate definition is needed for framing. 10
- 11. Developments of AI job AI Properly framed data Input Technological implementation Several decades ago, computers could only do calculations. could only do calculations numerical data rightly formatted for calculationsDecades ago can do a variety of analyzing and operation Non numerical data, such as text, images, sounds and so on are acceptable Nowadays The developments of AI technologies have enabled… 11
- 12. Human Jobs are Too Complicated The human job, as is entirely, is too complicated to implement the use of AI. However, if you break it down into micro jobs, there are some which can be converted into AI. Human job (complicated) job job job job job job AI job AI job job job break down convert to AI orchestration of them is other issue of practical AI adaptation to industry. Let’s call this approach as “Micro jobs strategy” 12
- 13. Decline of Workers It is difficult to replace human job entirely with AI, but the amount of human workers needed will certainly decline. Human job (complicated) job AI job AI job job job decline 4 workers 2 workers 13
- 14. Orchestration Change of Skill Requirements Micro job strategy requires human workers with skills of orchestrating the micro jobs. job AI job AI job job job Communications between humans and AI must be performed explicitly by definite language. Thus, human workers must have much higher intellectual skills than before. 14
- 15. Designing AI Based Process This figure shows elements necessary for designing AI based process for a specific problem. problem All acquirable information Framing Properly framed data Input job AI job AI job AIjob AI job AI job AI job AI job AI definitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinition definitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinition definitiondefinitiondefinition definition job AI job AI job AI Process Designing (What humans have to do) 15 A set of useful job AI modules for a specific problem All of available job AI modules (extremely huge varieties) Frame definitions are correspondent to individual job AI modules (extremely huge varieties) AI module libraryFrame definitions Problem Specific Modules
- 16. What Man Have To Do is … “Process Designing” involves some complicated tasks which need human heuristic ability. 16 (1) Understanding all information related to a specific problem (3) Selecting suitable AI modules and connecting them. (2) Deciding what frames are suitable for the problem. problem Framing Properly framed data Input job AI job AI job AIjob AI job AI job AI job AI job AI definitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinition definitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinition definitiondefinitiondefinition definition job AI job AI job AI Process Designing (What humans have to do) AI module libraryFrame definitions Problem Specific Modules Will AI be able to do these heuristic tasks in the future? If yes, that means it is a strong AI.
- 17. Can AI Find Proper Frames by Itself? If there could be a strong AI, which can think in the same way as man, it will need to find proper frames by itself. However, none of the current AI technologies can do that. 17 problem Framing Properly framed data Input job AI job AI job AIjob AI job AI job AI job AI job AI definitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinition definitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinitiondefinition definitiondefinitiondefinition definition job AI job AI job AI Strong AI AI module libraryFrame definitions Problem Specific Modules Current AI technology can work only in this domain. Still there are no clues of these “heuristic” functions of the human brain. Thus, the expectation that “Singularity will come by 2045” is not plausible.