Cloud Frontiers: A Deep Dive into Serverless Spatial Data and FME
Europe User Conference: Albemarle FCC-SIM calibration best practices
1. Proprietary Information of Albemarle Corporation.
How Can I Use FCC-SIM
to Monitor My
FCC Unit Regularly?
Alan Kramer
Global FCC Modeling Specialist
KBC Software User Group Conference
2018
London
2. Proprietary Information of Albemarle Corporation.
The Questions
2
•What are the important calibration
factors?
•How does catalyst affect calibration
factors?
•How can I tell if my calibration factors
are any good?
•How should I select which cases’
calibration factors to use?
Calibration
•How can I tell if I need to manually
tune the model?
•How do I know what factor to adjust?
Tuning
3. Proprietary Information of Albemarle Corporation.
The Questions
3
•What are the important calibration
factors?
•How does catalyst affect calibration
factors?
•How can I tell if my calibration factors
are any good?
•How should I select which cases’
calibration factors to use?
Calibration
•How can I tell if I need to manually
tune the model?
•How do I know what factor to adjust?
Tuning
14. Proprietary Information of Albemarle Corporation.
Are My Calibration Factors Any Good?
14
• Correlate back to calibration input data
• Correct data or eliminate case
• Check for coincidence with catalyst change
• Correlate back to calibration input data
• Theoretically these should be flat with little variation
• Correlate back to calibration input data
• Use best judgment on input data
18. Proprietary Information of Albemarle Corporation.
Calibration Factor Trendplots – Flyers Example #1
18
CORREL function vs Calibration Input Rows
=ABS(CORREL(range1,range2))
25. Proprietary Information of Albemarle Corporation.
Which Calibration Cases to Use?
25
•As many as possible
•Always consider catalyst formulation
•Averaging calibration factors
dampens variation effects
•Superday / single-day use may
amplify variations
Which Cases Should I Use?
•Significantly different feed rate
•Different combustion mode
•Catalyst transition
•Different catalyst
Which cases should I avoid?
26. Proprietary Information of Albemarle Corporation.
Superday vs. Average Projection
26
• FCC-SIM Experiment
• 22 cases (weekly averages)
• Questionable daily data removed
1. Calibrate model for all 22 cases
2. Predict 22 cases
» Independent variables = same for all, average for all 22 cases
» Calibration factors = each cases’ individual
3. Predict 1 more case
» Independent variables = same as above, average for all 22 cases
» Calibration factors = average for all 22 cases
4. Analyze the variability in the predicted yields
27. Proprietary Information of Albemarle Corporation.
Superday vs. Average Projection
27
Wt% Yield Ranges Predicted with Case Calibration Factors
Yield, wt% Min -1 sigma Average
Calibration
Factors
+1 sigma Max
H2 0.1 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.15
Dry Gas 2.12 2.23 2.36 2.50 2.64
LPG 16.55 17.30 18.14 18.98 19.73
C5 – 430F
C5 – 221C
47.06 47.97 49.19 50.41 51.77
430-650F
221-343C
14.61 15.80 16.64 17.48 17.87
650F+
343C+
5.11 5.86 6.5 7.14 7.55
Regen Temp F
Regen Temp C
1270
688
1296
703
1313
712
1330
721
1336
724
28. Proprietary Information of Albemarle Corporation.
Superday vs. Average Projection
28
Delta wt% From Yields Predicted with Average Calibration Factors
Yield, wt% Min -1 sigma Average
Calibration
Factors
+1 sigma Max
H2 -0.02 -0.014 0.014 0.03
Dry Gas -0.24 -0.13 0.13 0.28
LPG -1.59 -0.84 0.84 1.59
C5 – 430F
C5 – 221C
-2.13 -1.22 1.22 2.58
430-650F
221-343C
-2.03 -0.84 0.84 1.23
650F+
343C+
-1.39 -0.64 0.64 1.05
Regen Temp F
Regen Temp C
-43F
-24C
-17F
-9C
17F
9C
23
13C
29. Proprietary Information of Albemarle Corporation.
Calibration Summary
• Focus on the key calibration factors.
• Trendplot key calibration factors always after calibrating.
• Calibration factor trendplots should be flat over time.
• Fix flyers & variability. Understand the reason for trends.
• Use the CORREL function to help relate calibration factors to calibration inputs.
• When choosing calibration cases to average:
– Use as many as possible.
– Consider the base catalyst, feed rate, combustion mode.
• Don’t use superdays.
29
30. Proprietary Information of Albemarle Corporation.
Revisit The Questions
30
•What are the important calibration
factors?
•How does catalyst affect calibration
factors?
•How can I tell if my calibration factors
are any good?
•How should I select which cases’
calibration factors to use?
Calibration
•How can I tell if I need to manually
tune the model?
•How do I know what factor to adjust?
Tuning