1. QUADRENNIAL TECHNOLOGY REVIEW
AN ASSESSMENT OF ENERGY
TECHNOLOGIES AND RESEARCH
OPPORTUNITIES
Q T R

2. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
DOE’s Quadrennial Reviews
• Quadrennial Energy Review: Called for by the President to analyze
government-wide energy policy, particularly focused on energy
infrastructure.
• Quadrennial Technology Review: Secretary Moniz requested the
second volume be published in parallel with the QER to provide
analysis of the most promising RDD&D opportunities across
energy technologies in working towards a clean energy economy.
• The resulting analysis and recommendations of the QTR 2015 will
inform the national energy enterprise and will guide the Department
of Energy’s programs and capabilities, budgetary priorities, industry
interactions, and National Laboratory activities.
2

3. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Changes since the Last QTR
• Decreasing growth of gasoline consumption
• Increased vehicle gas mileage to record levels
• U.S. now world’s largest producer of oil and gas
combined
• Newly dynamic nuclear power landscape
• Increased deployment of wind (1.65x) and solar energy
(9x)
• Slowing growth of electricity consumption
• Increasing opportunities for U.S. manufacturing
• Growing market for electric vehicles
• Regionally constrained water availability
• Significant economic growth with flat greenhouse gas
emissions
3

4. 4
The Energy Challenge
Goals for Energy Systems
1. Economic security – cost efficient
energy systems
2. Energy security – energy systems
that have multiple supply
options and are robust and
resilient
3. Environmental security – much
lower emissions of greenhouse
gases and other pollutants
Opportunity
Create and manage linked,
complex systems that deal with
all three challenges 4

5. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Learning Curves for Selected Technologies
Credit: National Academy of Sciences
• Engineering
improvements reduce
costs:
– System designs
– Manufacturing
– Improved materials
• Capital and operating
costs determine how
technologies compete
to determine the
energy mix
5

6. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Process for the QTR 2015
• Participation: ~ 200 contributors, ~ 500 reviewers
• Sector Analyses: Grid, Power, Buildings,
Manufacturing, Fuels, and Transportation
– Systems Analyses
– Enabling science, systems science, and integrated analysis
– 51 Technology Assessments – technology deep dives
– Road Maps – systems and technologies
• Builds on program workshops, reviews, road mapping;
• Satellite events at major conferences and workshops;
• Webinars for each technology assessment team;
• Cornerstone workshops in DC during November to
engage leaders: Capstone Workshop in January for
leaders to review
• Reports in hard copy—Website: Report PDF, 51 TA
PDFs
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7. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Systems Analyses and Technology
Assessments
• Maturity (and time period)
• Materiality (impacts)
• Market potential
• Public benefits
• Public role
Sectors/Systems Analyses Technology Assessments
Clean Fuels 5
Grid Modernization 6
Clean Electric Power 19
Buildings 10*
Industry & Manufacturing 14
Clean Transportation & Vehicles 5
• Cyber & Physical Security
• Designs, Architectures, Concepts
• Electric Energy Storage
• Flexible & Distributed Resources
• Measurement, Comm., Control
• T&D Components
• Additive Manufacturing
• Combined Heat and Power
• Composite Materials &
Manufact
• Critical Materials
• Materials Flow Through Industry
• Process Heating
• Process Intensification
• Roll-to-roll Processing
• Smart Manufacturing
• ………
• Advanced Plant Technologies
• Biopower
• CO2 Capture & Storage Value-
Added Options
• CO2 Capture for Natural Gas &
Industrial Applications
• CO2 Capture
• CO2 Storage
• Crosscutting Technologies in CCS
• Fast-Spectrum Reactors
• Geothermal Power
• High Temp. Reactor
• Hybrid Nuclear-Renewable
• Hydropower
• Light Water Reactors
• Marine Hydrokinetic Power
• Nuclear Fuel Cycles
• Solar Power
• Stationary Fuel Cells
• Supercritical CO2 Brayton Cycle
• Wind Power
* Roadmaps
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8. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W 8

9. The U.S Energy System—Linkages
9Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W

10. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
The Grid
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11. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Improved Sensor Deployment
• Phasor measurement
units and smart
meters deployed
with Recovery Act
funding
• Much more to do to
modernize the
transmission and
distribution system
to improve services,
robustness, and
resilience.
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12. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Graphic Source: International Energy Agency
• Operator-Based Grid Management
• Centralized Control
• Off-Line Analysis / Limit Setting
• Flexible and Resilient Systems
• Sensors and Data Acquisition
• Algorithms and Computer Infrastructure
• Multi-Level Coordination / Precise Control
• Faster-than-Real-Time Analysis
Historical Emerging
The Future Grid differs Radically from the Present
Characterized by More Flexibility and Agility
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13. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Potential for Much Improved Grid
Services
• Many R&D for opportunities
for transmission and
distribution:
– Architecture (microgrids)
– New (and cheaper) sensors
for
• Voltage, freq., phase angle
• Current, real, reactive power
– Active controls of power flow
– Solid state transformers
• Improved communications,
data analysis, fast state
estimation, automatic
controls
• Integration of distributed
generation, intermittent
renewables
• Cybersecurity
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14. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Integration of Intermittent Renewables
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15. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Energy Storage
• Role in electric
power and
transportation
• Options depend
on scale of
application
• R&D options to
reduce costs at all
scales
• Integration of
storage with
infrastructure Credit: Sandia Laboratory
Energy Storage Technology Options
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16. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Systems of Systems
• Increased
interconnection of
systems: opportunities
for balancing, challenges
for communications, fast
system models,
automatic controls
• Issues: markets,
valuation of services,
privacy, security
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17. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Clean Electric Power
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18. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Carbon Capture and Storage
• Capture with solvents
demonstrated at scale
• 2nd generation demos (1
MW) testing adv solvents,
sorbents, membranes
• Goal: reduce energy
penalties and costs of
components, materials,
chemistries, separations,
integrated plant designs
• Research: phase change
separations, electrochemical
capture
• Storage in a variety of
subsurface geologic settings
• Demonstrate for post-
combustion retrofits, natural
gas generation
Southern Company Kemper Project, IGCC + CC + EOR
Credit: Mississippi Power
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19. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Nuclear Power
• 19% of current electric power
generation, 60% of non-GHG power,
baseload with 89% capacity factor
• Reactor R&D options:
– Small modular reactors (passive safety,
lower cost?)
– High temperature, gas cooled reactors
(more efficient power generation,
process heat?)
– Fast spectrum reactors (reduced waste)
• More R&D opportunities in advanced
fuels, high performance materials for
rad environments
• Challenges: waste storage, siting,
licensing and construction costs
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20. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Comparison
• Rankine efficiency is 33%
• Supercritical CO2 (sCO2 )
potential to surpass 40%
efficiency
• Greatly reduced cost for
sCO2 compared to the cost
of conventional steam
Rankine cycle
• sCO2 compact turbo
machinery is easily
scalable
Cross-cutting Applications: Supercritical
CO2 – Brayton Cycle
1 meter sCO2 (300 MWe)
(Brayton Cycle)
20 meter Steam Turbine (300 MWe)
(Rankine Cycle)
5-stage Dual Turbine
Lo Hi
3-stage Single Turbine
Hi Lo
Lo
20

21. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Challenges in the Energy-Water System
Treatment,
Management,
and Beneficial
Use of
Nontraditional
Waters
Improved
Water
Efficiency in
Bioenergy
Systems
Water-Efficient
Cooling
Optimized
Water and
Energy in
Commercial
and Industrial
Systems
Sustainable
Utilities
21

22. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Wind Provides Promising Potential
• Wind has become a mainstream power source in the
U.S.
‒ 4.4% of U. S. electricity in 2014
‒ 70,000 jobs
• Ability to Increase U. S. wind capacity faces technical,
market and perception challenges
‒ Wind plant optimization (A2e)
‒ Accessing best wind resources
‒ Transmission capacity
‒ Public awareness
Wind Plant Optimization
Offshore Wind Demonstration
Successfully addressing these
challenges can lead to wind providing
35% of U.S. electricity by 2050
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23. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Solar Offers Significant Long-Term Potential
• PV Installed costs
 Reduced over 50% in 4 years
 Module costs significantly below $1/Watt
• CSP offers storage capabilities
• Technology Challenges
 Reduce installed costs by addressing “soft costs”
 Increase efficiencies and reliability with improved or
new technology and manufacturing
 High penetration requires advances in grid
integration
Overarching Strategies
• “Soft cost” improvements
• Technology advances
• Systems approach
Perovskite efficiencies have
increased to > 20% in only 2 years
from Liu and Kelly. Nat. Phot. 2013
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24. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Other Renewables Support Diversified Energy Supplies
• Enhanced Geothermal
– Could provide over 500 GW of base load
renewable power
– FORGE and SubTER initiatives advance
subsurface S&T
• Hydro and Pumped Hydro
– Used to balance grid as intermittent
renewables increase
• Marine and Hydro Kinetic (MHK)
– Harnesses energy from waves, tides, and
river and ocean currents
– Significant long-term potential - over half
of U.S. population within 50 miles of
coastlines
24

25. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Efficiency of Building Systems
and Technologies
25

26. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Building Efficiency
• Buildings account for more than 75% of
all electricity (40% of all energy) used
in U.S.
• EE technology can reduce this by 20-
35%, saving up to 13 Quads
• Efficiency is the first step; lessens the
need for generation capacity
• Buildings will become assets on the
grid, rather than just a load
Major Research Opportunities
• Window innovations
• Lighting efficiency
• More efficient HVAC &
refrigeration
• Highly efficient building designs
• Grid integration
• Sensors, controls, decision science
Overarching strategies
• Reduce cost
• Improve performance
• Systems approach
26

27. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Potential Building Energy Reductions
Significant reductions in building energy use with existing technologies
(20% reduction) and future technologies (35%) – 13 quads of potential
27

28. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Clean Transportation and Vehicle
Systems
28

29. Advancing Clean Transportation and Vehicle System
Technologies
• Combustion efficiency
• Co-optimization of fuels and engines
• Lightweighting
• Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs)
• Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs)
• Other modes (e.g., air, rail, and marine)
• Connected and automated vehicles
• Transportation systems
Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W 29

30. Connected and Automated Vehicles
• Vehicle connectivity and automation is expected to have a variety of energy
implications, both benefits and risks.
• R&D opportunities include supporting technologies (sensors, computation,
communication) as well as system R&D to improve energy outcomes.
• These are new potential areas for DOE investment.
Possible energy implications of CAVs in three factor categories. Net impacts are unknown and
could range from significant savings to significant increases in demand
30

31. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Clean Fuels
31

32. Advancing Systems and Technologies to
Produce Cleaner Fuels
Fuel is defined as “a carrier of chemical energy that can be released via
reaction to produce work, heat, or other energy services” (QTR)
Each fuel has strengths, shortcomings, and relevant time horizons
Economy Security Environment
Oil & Gas
Low Cost
U.S. Production
Volatile Price
Secure (Today)
Widely Abundant
Domestic
Poor Carbon Footprint
Environmental Impacts
Non-renewable
Bioenergy
U.S. Production
Technology Cost
Scale-up
Abundant
Domestic
Good Carbon Footprint
Renewable
Land-use issues
Hydrogen
Diverse Applications
Technology Cost
Distribution
Diverse Sources
Domestic
Best Carbon Footprint*
Renewable*
Other fuels covered in QTR Chapter 7 - CNG/LNG, Coal-to-Liquid (CTL), Coal (Biomass and Hybrid Systems)-to-Liquid
(CBTL), Methanol, Ammonia, DME
Challenges
32

33. • Environmentally sound drilling and completions
• Emerging research needs for offshore oil spill prevention
• Other environmental challenges for unconventional oil and gas
• Assessment and safe and effective production of gas hydrates
Oil & Gas
• Scalable, quality, commodity feedstocks through advanced logistics
• Higher algal productivity and lipid content with reduce water use
• Better enzymes, microorganisms, catalysts and for conversion
• Enhanced biofuel economics through high-value bioproducts
Bioenergy
• Cost-effective end-to-end fuels infrastructure
• Cost-effective H2 production from low- or zero-carbon resources
• New materials for added performance, durability, cost, and safety
Hydrogen
Fuels RDD&D Opportunities
Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W 33

34. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Advanced Manufacturing
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35. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W 35

36. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Driver: Energy Intensity – Bandwidth Studies Underway
36

37. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Advanced Sensors, Controls, Platforms and
Modeling for Manufacturing
Scope
• Smart systems and advanced controls
• Advanced sensors and metrology, including power/cost sensors and component tracking across
the supply chain
• Distributed manufacturing
• Predictive maintenance
• Product customization
• HPC, cloud computing and optimization algorithms
Open standards and interoperability for
manufacturing devices, systems, and
services
Platform infrastructure for integration of
data and software across heterogeneous
systems
Real-time measurement, monitoring and
optimization solutions of machine energy
consumption and waste
Software-service oriented platforms for
manufacturing automation
Energy optimization of processes and
integration with smart grids,
cogeneration, and microgrids
Theory and algorithms for model-based
control and optimization in the
manufacturing domain
Health management for manufacturing
equipment and systems
Integration with Big Data Analytics
Low-power, resilient wireless sensors
and sensor networks
Modeling and simulation at temporal
and spatial scales relevant across
manufacturing
Technology and System Integration Opportunities
37

38. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Additive Manufacturing – 3D Printing
Developed Unique 3D Printing Tool
(with Cincinnati Inc.)
Developed blended polymer / fiber
(with Techmer Inc.)
Developed Surface Process
(with Tru-Design Inc.)
Designed & Printed Car Prototype
(with Shelby Inc.)
Printed Cobra Project: Design to
Prototype
Six (6) people in six (6) weeks.
38

39. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Final
Processing
Secondary
Processing
(8.72 kg)
Key assumptions:
• Ingot embodied (source) energy 918 MJ/kg (255 kWh/kg)[5]
• Forging 1.446 kWh/kg[5] , Atomization 1.343 kWh/kg[6,7,8], Machining 9.9 kWh/kg removed[9], SLM 29 kWh/kg[10, 11], EBM 17 kWh/kg[10]
• 11 MJ primary energy per kWh electricity
• Machining pathway buy-to-fly 33:1[15], supply chain buy point = forged product (billet, slab, etc.)
• AM pathway buy-to-fly 1.5:1, supply chain buy point = atomized powder
• Argon used in atomization and SLM included in recipes but not factored into energy savings in this presentation
Powder
Electron
Beam Melting
(EBM)
Additive Manufacturing - Buy-to-Fly Ratio 1.5:1
Finished Part
Source: MFI and LIGHTEnUP Analysis
Primary Processing
(15.9 MJ/kg)
Finished Part
Mill Product
(slab, billet,
etc.)
Machined
Product
Conventional Machining - Buy-to-Fly Ratio 8:1
Atomization
(14.8 MJ/kg)
(0.57 kg)
Final
Processing
(0.38 kg)
1.09 kg
0.38 kg
*“Average” conventional bracket 1.09 kg, “average” AM bracket 0.38 kg
Ingot
(918 MJ/kg
embodied
energy)
Technology Assessment – Additive Manufacturing
Example: Optimized Aircraft Bracket
39

40. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Enabling Science
40

41. X-ray light sources provide a range of wavelengths capable of
probing structures as small as atoms to whole cells and
beyond.
• LCLS-II and APS-U will provide higher energy and brighter beams.
• Instrument development brings NSLS-II’s world-leading beam
brightness to more experiments.
Neutron sources are uniquely suited to non-destructive 3D
structure determination of real systems.
• The SNS Second Target Station would enable new science in condensed
matter, structural biology, and energy materials.
Nanoscale Science Research Centers integrate theory,
synthesis, fabrication, and characterization of novel
nanomaterials
• New capabilities in in operando electron microscopy and accelerator-
based nanoscience.
• Novel fabrication techniques in combinatorics and self-assembly.
Understanding and Controlling Matter
at the Atomic Scale
Unique, cutting-edge experimental tools for characterization,
discovery, and synthesis of novel materials and energy systems.
On-going research, development, and upgrades for facilities opens new
frontiers in materials characterization (real systems in real time).
41

42. Understanding and Controlling Matter at
the Atomic Scale
Traversing a Catalytic Reaction Pathway in Femtosecond Steps
• SLAC researchers revealed details of a catalytic
mechanism (CO oxidation at a ruthenium
catalyst) by combining ultra-fast optical and x-
ray laser pulses.
• Ultra-bright femtosecond x-ray pulses from
LCLS allowed researchers to directly
characterize catalytic reaction intermediates.
• The detailed understanding of elementary
reaction steps enabled by LCLS opens the door
for new catalysts that are both more reactive
and more robust, leading to greater efficiency
and reduced energy costs.
The stages of photoinitiated carbon monoxide
oxidation at a ruthenium catalyst surface.
Reference: Ӧstrӧm et al. “Probing the Transition State Region in
Catalytic CO Oxidation on Ru”, Science 347(6225), 978-982 (2015)
The 132 m LCLS undulator hall.
42

43. Modeling and Simulation of Complex
Phenomena
Accelerating discovery through modeling and simulation of real systems.
• DOE and SC supported supercomputers enable
simulation of complex real-world phenomena,
putting true “systems-by-design” in reach.
• The Office of Advanced Scientific Computing
Research supports this push to modeling and
simulation of real systems through parallel
development of hardware, software, and skilled
personnel.
• Leadership-class computers
• Production-class computers
• Energy Sciences Network
• DOE computers - enabled through dedicated
outreach from the laboratories - have an
enormous impact across the engineering and
manufacturing space.
• The development needs of exascale computing
– hardware, software, and efficiency – are
being supported through co-design centers.
Name Performance
(pflops/s)
Laboratory
Titan 17.6 Oak Ridge
Mira 8.60 Argonne
Cascade 2.53 Pacific Northwest
Edison 1.65 Lawrence Berkeley (NERSC)
Hopper 1.05 Lawrence Berkeley (NERSC)
Red Sky 0.43 Sandia/NREL
43

44. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Conclusions
•Considerable progress has been made in energy
technologies, but much more remains to be done
•There exists a very wide-ranging opportunity
space, for individual technologies and for
improved systems
•A portfolio approach is required: fully stocked
across primary energy resources, conversion
technologies, systems, and time scales for
application, with efficiency everywhere
•Enabling science and computing are essential to
our energy future success
44

45. Q U A D R E N N I A L T E C H N O L O G Y R E V I E W
Energy is the Engine of the
Economy
Vast and complex
Touches Everything
Concurrent daunting challenges
in the Face of stunning global growth
A wide range of options exists for future progress
45