New base energy news issue 940 dated 31 october 2016

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NewBase Energy News 31 October 2016 - Issue No. 940 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
UAE Fuel price floating with oil prices with 5% rise in Nov-16
NewBas + the National
The Ministry of Energy announced on Sunday that motorists will pay Dh1.90 a litter for Super 98, up 4.9 per cent
from October; Special 95 will cost Dh1.79, up 5.2 per cent, and E Plus will cost Dh1.72, up 5.5 per cent. Diesel
will cost Dh1.91, up 8.5 per cent.
For October, Super 98 was priced at Dh1.81 a litter, Special 95 at Dh1.70 and E Plus was Dh1.63. Diesel cost
Dh1.76. Brent crude closed last week at $49.71 a barrel, a drop of 4 per cent for the week. That trimmed the
commodity’s month-to-date gain to 4.2 per cent and year-to-date gain to 33.3 per cent.
The new fuel prices are announced as global crude oil prices recover due to discussions among
member countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to curb
output levels to stabilise oil prices.
International Prices for Fuel $/Ton International Oil Prices $/B

OPEC agreed on September 28 in Algeria to reduce output to a range of 32.5 million to 33 million
barrels a day and decide how much each member should cut by its next meeting on November 30
in Vienna.
The agreement helped push oil prices to a fifteenth month high of about $50 a barrel earlier this
month although they have subsequently fallen amid doubts the group will follow through in its
pledge.
Some countries like Iraq and Iran are insisting that they should be exempted from the deal as they
try to ramp up production to increase their revenue. There are also doubts whether Nigeria and
Libya will take part in the agreement.
Francisco Quintana, Head of Strategy at Foresight Advisors told Gulf News the negotiation will be
fraught with difficulties, even before starting the discussion about limits.
“If Opec wants to give exemptions to Iran, Nigeria and Libya, it seems like Saudi Arabia would
have to absorb a substantial reduction, which they would do to avoid a collapse of the agreement
and the subsequent collapse in prices.”
“Still, the agreement will be insufficient to bring a structural change to oil prices, which we expect
range-bound in the next twelve months.”
Oil prices are currently trading slightly below $50 per barrel with the global benchmark Brent at
$49.71 per barrel and the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $48.70 per barrel.

Iraq Reveals Oilfields Output to Win Over OPEC Ahead of Meeting
Bloomberg - Sam Wilkin @MrSamWilkin
Iraq published data showing a rare level of detail for its oil production and exports, a week after
inviting energy reporters to Baghdad to make a case that the country is pumping more crude than
analysts and OPEC acknowledge.
The country’s state oil marketing agency released a statement on Sunday showing September
production figures for each of the 26 fields it controls, plus a single output figure for the semi-
autonomous Kurdish region, which manages its crude independently. Previous monthly
statements showed just two figures: total production and total exports. The Oil Marketing Co.,
known as SOMO, also provided detailed data on exports and domestic consumption.
OPEC’s second-largest producer says it pumped more than 4.7 million barrels a day last month,
several hundred thousand barrels a day more than oil-industry watchers recognize. The
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries assesses output for its 14 members based on
such secondary sources. Iraq wants the group to accept the ministry’s figures before a Nov. 30
meeting at which OPEC could limit production for its members.
Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi complained about OPEC data at a meeting in September in Algiers.
He adopted a milder approach last week, inviting reporters to Baghdad for a tour of the national
museum and a detailed discussion of production figures. “We want you to see for yourselves what
our production is,” he said on Oct. 23.

Transparency Push
The field-specific data for September sheds light on how SOMO calculates Iraqi production.
However, it doesn’t provide a breakdown of Kurdish production, which accounts for much of the
difference between the data cited by SOMO and secondary sources.
“It’s an effort of transparency and backing up their numbers, but I’m not quite sure how effective
it’s going to be,” Robin Mills, chief executive officer of consultant Qamar Energy, said by phone
from Dubai. “The biggest discrepancy is likely to be in the Kurdish fields.”
Production from the Kurdish enclave in northern Iraq averaged 546,000 barrels a day last month,
according to SOMO. That figure is an estimate because the central government has not received
the latest production data from Kurdish authorities, SOMO Director General Falah Al-Amri said
last week. SOMO bases its estimate on what Kurdish production was in 2013 and 2014, he said.
In the north of the country, the Kirkuk and Baba Gurgur fields produced 93,000 barrels a day for
the federal North Oil Co., SOMO said. The nearby Bai Hasan and Avana fields pumped 275,000
barrels a day for the NOC.
The BP Plc-operated Rumaila oil field, Iraq’s largest, pumped an average of 1.4 million barrels a
day in September, SOMO said. The two fields at West Qurna produced a combined 870,000
barrels a day, while output from Zubair was 390,000; Majnoon, 214,000; and Halfaya, 204,000.

Japan: INPEX concludes exploration drilling offshore Japan
Source: INPEX
INPEX announced Friday that the drilling operations on an exploratory well offshore Shimane and
Yamaguchi prefectures that began on June 5, 2016 were concluded on October 26, 2016.
The operations consisted of drilling to a depth of 2,900m below the sea floor at a location approx.
130km northwest of Shimane Prefecture and approx. 140km north of Yamaguchi Prefecture
where the water is approx. 210m deep, as part of a project commissioned by the Agency of
Natural Resources and Energy of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) of Japan
for the agency’s 'Heisei 26~28 Domestic Offshore Drilling Program in Japan' and with the
understanding and cooperation of the local communities.
The drilling operations resulted in the findings of a thin gas reservoir in a shallow zone as well as
some gas indications in deeper zones. INPEX also encountered unexpected, strong gas
indications suggesting the presence of a high pressure gas column in the deepest zone.
Based on the findings of a gas reservoir in the shallow zone and gas indications in the deeper and
deepest zones in this area, which has not been drilled since the 1980s, INPEX will conduct a
detailed analysis and evaluation of data obtained through the drilling operations in order to
continue the exploration of prospects in this area.

Senegal: ConocoPhillips completes sale of exploration blocks
Source: ConocoPhillips
ConocoPhillips announced Friday it has completed a transaction for the sale of its shares
in ConocoPhillips Senegal, which holds a 35 percent interest in three exploration blocks offshore
Senegal. The total sales price of the transaction, which is between the subsidiaries of
ConocoPhillips and Australia’s Woodside Petroleum, was approx. $440 million, including net
customary adjustments of approx. $90 million.
'We are pleased to complete this transaction with Woodside,' said Matt Fox, executive vice
president, Strategy, Exploration and Technology. 'We experienced a transparent and cooperative
relationship with the Senegalese government and appreciated their support throughout a very
successful exploration and appraisal campaign. By completing this sale we are progressing our
broader exit from deepwater exploration, which will further increase our capital flexibility and
reduce the cost of supply of our portfolio.'
The three offshore exploration blocks, Rufisque Offshore, Sangomar Offshore and Sangomar
Deep Offshore, had a net carrying value of approx. $285 million as of Sept. 30, 2016.
ConocoPhillips expects to recognize a gain on the sale in the fourth quarter of 2016, the amount
of which is subject to final adjustments.

Low tanker rates are enabling more long-distance crude oil and
petroleum product trade … U.S. EIA, based on Bloomberg and London Tanker Brokers' Panel
Recent expansion of the global crude oil and petroleum product tanker fleet has resulted in falling
or lower tanker rates for much of 2016 that have widened the geographic scope for economically
attractive trade at a time when inventories of both crude oil and petroleum products are at high
levels.
In recent years, growing global oil production and growth in global refining capacity in markets
distant from crude sources led to an increase in orders for new vessels in anticipation of an
increasing need for tanker transportation. This resulted in several consecutive years of an
expanding global tanker fleet, with an estimated net change of 205 ships added in 2015,
according to Thomson Reuters.
On a global scale, demand for tankers is influenced by differences in supply and demand
conditions across regional markets. Tankers of different sizes and classes have specific
characteristics that help determine the markets and shipping routes they serve. For example, so-
called dirty tankers, which transport unrefined or less-refined cargos (such as crude oil and

residual fuel oil), tend to be large, with low per-barrel transportation costs. So-called clean tankers,
which transport refined products such as gasoline and diesel fuel, are typically smaller vessels.
To date in October, monthly average rates for very large dirty tankers in the carrier (VLCC)-size
range traveling between the Arabian Gulf and Singapore, an indicator for the overall dirty tanker
market, are down 23% from January.
Rates for smaller average freight rate assessment (AFRA)-size range dirty tankers on the same
route are down 49% from January. Rates for dirty VLCC-size range tankers and AFRA-size range
tankers through October have each averaged 36% lower, respectively, than the full year 2015
average.
Rates for clean tankers are also lower. The average October rate, to date, for a clean long range 1
(LR1)-size tanker on the Arabian Gulf-to-Japan route is down 38% from January. The monthly
average rate for a smaller medium range (MR)-size range tanker on the same route is down 22%
from January.
With lower tanker rates, the price spread needed for economically attractive trade between two
markets narrows, making it possible for importers to bring in distant supplies at reduced cost. For
exporters, lower tanker rates increase the price competiveness of their supplies in more distant
markets.
This can help to explain some of the motor gasoline imports to the U.S. East Coast in 2016 from
relatively distant countries such as South Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Japan.
Low tanker rates also aid the competitiveness of U.S. crude oil exports. Currently, no U.S. port is
capable of loading the larger vessels typically used to transport crude oil, so U.S. crude exporters
must use more expensive smaller vessels.
However, with lower tanker rates, exporters may be able to load smaller ships at U.S. ports and
transfer the cargoes onto larger vessels offshore for transport to final destinations at an attractive
per-barrel cost. This may explain U.S. Customs data showing some crude oil exports to places
like the Marshall Islands, a nation where many vessels are registered but are most likely not
taking deliveries.
Going forward, tanker rates should recover as the global market slowly returns to balance. EIA's
most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts a global quarterly draw in crude oil
stocks in the third quarter of 2017, the first since 2013.

NewBase 31 October 2016 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Oil falls as non-OPEC yet to pledge concrete output steps
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices extended declines on Monday after non-OPEC producers made no specific commitment
to join OPEC in limiting oil output levels to prop up prices, suggesting they wanted the oil
producing group to solve its differences first.
Officials and experts from OPEC countries and non-OPEC nations including Azerbaijan, Brazil,
Kazakhstan, Mexico, Oman and Russia met for consultations in Vienna on Saturday and only
agreed to meet again in November before a scheduled regular OPEC meeting on Nov. 30, they
said in a statement.
London Brent crude for December delivery LCOc1 was down 29 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $49.42 a
barrel by 0229 GMT after settling down 76 cents on Friday. NYMEX crude for December delivery
CLc1 was trading down 23 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $48.47 a barrel, after closing down $1.02 on
Friday.
"There was a lot of talk and nobody
managed to agree on anything.
That has been pushing the market
down," said Jeffrey Halley, senior
market analyst at OANDA
brokerage in Singapore.
The potential tightening of the U.S.
presidential race after news of a
renewed FBI probe of Democratic
candidate Hilary Clinton was also
affecting sentiment and putting
investors off riskier assets, Halley said. OPEC and non-OPEC said in a joint statement that
Saturday's meeting was a "positive development" towards reaching a global output limiting deal on
Nov. 30.
Russia expects to increase its oil output by 0.7 percent next year and a further 0.9 percent in
2018, the draft federal budget showed.
Crude production is seen at a record-high 548 million tonnes in 2017 and 553 million tonnes in
both 2018 and 2019, up from an estimated 544 million tonnes this year, the document showed.
The cabinet of the United Arab Emirates approved a 48.7 billion dirham ($13.3 billion) federal
budget for 2017, almost steady from 2016, suggesting UAE authorities remain cautious about
spending as low oil prices pressure state finances.
Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions for the first time in five
weeks in the week ended Oct. 25, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said
on Friday.
Oil price special
coverage

Non-OPEC yet to pledge concrete oil output steps after meeting OPEC
Reuters - By Alex Lawler | VIENNA
Non-OPEC producers made no specific commitment on Saturday to join the Organisation of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries in limiting oil output levels to prop up prices - a stance that
suggested they wanted OPEC to solve its differences first.
Officials and experts from OPEC countries and non-OPEC nations including Azerbaijan, Brazil,
Kazakhstan, Mexico, Oman and Russia met for consultations in Vienna on Saturday and only
agreed to meet again in November before a scheduled regular OPEC meeting on Nov. 30, they
said in a statement.
A day earlier, OPEC members themselves were unable to agreed on how to implement a global
deal to limit output after hours of talks amid objections by Iran which has been reluctant to even
freeze its output levels, sources said.
"We have to agree on the real numbers," non-OPEC Kazakhstan's vice-minister of energy,
Magsum Mirzagaliev, told reporters after seven hours of talks on Saturday.
"It is important that we meet once again with detailed numbers. We agreed that we have to meet
in 3-4 weeks with numbers, because every country has his own opinion," he said.
OPEC and non-OPEC said in a joint statement the meeting on Saturday was a "positive
development" towards reaching a global output limiting deal on Nov. 30.
Oil LCOc1 is trading closer to $50 a barrel, less than half its price of mid-2014, weighed down by
persistent oversupply and squeezing the incomes of exporting nations.
Last month, OPEC agreed at a meeting in Algeria very modest production cuts, its first since
2008, in an effort to help prop up prices. But the cuts have yet to be finalised.
The meeting of OPEC experts, known as OPEC's High Committee, does not decide policy but will
make recommendations to the next OPEC ministerial meeting on Nov. 30.
The meeting on Friday exposed old faultlines among OPEC members, especially the
organization's de facto leader Saudi Arabia and its arch-rival Iran.
Tehran argues it wants to regain its oil market share it had lost during years of sanctions, which
were eased earlier this year as part of a nuclear deal with the West.
Riyadh, which is fighting several proxy wars with Iran, including in Syria and Yemen, is reluctant to
make concessions to Tehran.
WAITING FOR OPEC
OPEC members have not agreed between themselves on a single set of production figures from
which to make the agreed cutbacks, and members including Iraq, Iran, Libya and Nigeria - whose
output has been held back by sanctions or conflict - have asked for special treatment in curbing
output.
The last time OPEC persuaded non-OPEC nations to make joint cuts was as long ago as the start
of the millennium.
Azerbaijan's energy minister Natig Aliyev told reporters before the start of the meeting he believed
the global deal was still possible.

"Just one week ago we met with the president of Venezuela," he said, in reference to the south
American OPEC member which has been pushing for measures to support prices.
"Venezuela and Azerbaijan agree that
some measures will be taken to stabilize
the market. We agreed the price of oil can
be around $60 per barrel."
Brazil's representative said his country was
attending only as an observer. "Brazilian
production will increase in the next few
years," said Brazilian official Marcio Felix.
Russia, one of the world's top producers,
which has been supporting joint actions
with OPEC, also attended the meeting in
Vienna but made no public comment.
Two OPEC sources said Russian energy officials told the gathering that Moscow was still willing
to freeze its output levels if OPEC agreed to cap its production.
"Russia is ready but they want to see in detail figures agreed for yesterday," one of the sources
said. Another source said Russia would freeze if OPEC agreed to reduce output.
U.S. offshore rig count stays firm
zoom
The U.S. offshore rig count remained unchanged for the second week in a row, the oilfield
services provider Baker Hughes informed on Friday in its Weekly Rig Count report.
BHI Rig Count: U.S. +14 to 553
rigs.
U.S. Rig Count is up 14 rigs from
last week to 553, with oil rigs up 11
to 443, gas rigs up 3 to 108, and
miscellaneous rigs unchanged at
2.
U.S. Rig Count is down 234 rigs
from last year’s count of 787, with
oil rigs down 151, gas rigs down
85, and miscellaneous rigs up 2.
The U.S. Offshore Rig Count is 23, unchanged from last week, and down 12 rigs year over year.
Last week’s count was also 23 active units in the U.S. waters.
BHI Rig Count: Canada -22 to 143 rigs
Canadian Rig Count is down 22 from last week to 143, with oil rigs down 21 to 69, and gas rigs
down 1 to 74.
Canadian Rig Count is down 47 rigs from last year’s count of 190, with oil rigs down 15, and gas
rigs down 32.

NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release 31 October 2016
Big Oil’s Shrinking Act Has More to Go in China
Boolmberg - Aibing Guo
China’s oil output slump shows no signs of abating as the country’s state-run energy giants hold
back spending to cope with the crash in prices.
China’s Big Three producers, led by PetroChina Co., have spent about half of their 2016 capital-
expenditure targets in the first nine months of the year, according to operational data released last
week by the companies. Their domestic crude output has slumped 6 percent over that period amid
the cutbacks, Bloomberg calculations show. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as
Sinopec, has seen the largest production declines and spent the least so far this year.
“Low crude prices led to lower spending, and lower spending caused the lower output,” said Tian
Miao, a Beijing-based analyst at North Square Blue Oak Ltd. “The only thing that can change the
game is a substantial rebound in crude prices.”
While output drops, crude imports have surged to all-time highs as the country’s refineries are on
track to process a record amount of crude this year and the government takes advantage of the
slump in prices to fill emergency stockpiles. China edged past the U.S. last month as the
world’s biggest importer and the country has relied on overseas supplies for 65 percent of its
needs this year, a record ratio, according to analysts at consultant ICIS China.
“The Chinese government has no problem with reduced domestic crude production as long as
crude imports can be guaranteed,” Tian said. “The national duty of the Big Three in a low-crude
environment is more about securing imports than producing at a loss.”

PetroChina shares in Hong Kong dropped 1.3 percent to HK$5.31 as of 9:34 a.m local time
Monday, while Sinopec gained 0.4 percent and Cnooc Ltd., the country’s biggest offshore oil
explorer, shed 1.3 percent. Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 0.7 percent.
PetroChina on Friday said net income during the first nine months of the year fell 94 percent to
1.73 billion yuan. Full-year results are expected to “decrease substantially” from 2015, it said in a
statement.
Sinopec said Thursday profit rose 11 percent over the period as the world’s biggest oil refiner
benefited from lower crude costs for its fuel-making business. Cnooc, which doesn’t release
quarterly net income, reported Wednesday a 15 percent fall in third-quarter sales.
‘Significantly Underspend’
Sinopec has spent about 25 billion yuan in the first nine months of the year, down a third from
same period last year and a quarter of its 100.4 billion yuan target. Domestic crude output during
that period is down 14 percent. The company may consider buying overseas assets or stakes in
other projects, Chairman Wang Yupu said after the half-year results were released in August.
“The company is likely to significantly underspend the full-year budget,” Neil Beveridge, a Hong
Kong-based analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, said in a research note after the company released
quarterly earnings last week.
PetroChina has spent 114 billion yuan in the first nine months of the year, down 23 percent from
the same period a year ago. The company said in March that it was targeting a 5 percent decline
in capital spending to 192 billion yuan.
Cnooc has reached slightly more than half its full year target in the first three quarters. The
offshore explorer intends to keep its 60 billion yuan spending cap this year, Chief Financial Officer
Zhong Hua said in a conference call after the sales figures were released Wednesday. Having

spent just 33.7 billion yuan in the first nine months, Cnooc will try to spend more in the last three
months on improving output and preparing for new projects, he said.
China’s total crude output fell 6.1 percent in the first nine months of the year. Production
can stabilize with prices around $50 a barrel and may not rebound until they are above $60,
Bernstein’s Beveridge said earlier this month. Production from the Big Three in the third quarter
slipped by 9 percent from the same period last year, according to Bloomberg calculations.
GE-Baker Hughes deal could be announced Monday, WSJ reports
CNBC.com staff
General Electric could announce a $30 billion deal with Baker Hughesas early as Monday,
according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).
GE is seeking to combine its own oil and gas business with the oilfield services provider, creating
a new entity that would be controlled by GE, the WSJ reported on Sunday, citing anonymous
sources.
In a statement last
week, GE confirmed
that it was discussing
potential partnerships
with Baker Hughes but
ruled out an "outright
purchase."
The new entity could
yield more than $25
billion in revenue and
allow GE to gain from
an anticipated oil
market recovery without
paying for a full
acquisition, the WSJ
said.
Shares of both companies have so far cheered news of such a deal, with GE ending 2.1 percent
higher on Friday, while Baker Hughes rallied 8.4 percent.

Offshore oil production in deepwater and ultra deepwater is increasing
Source: EIA
The EIA reports that, global offshore oil production (including lease condensate and hydrocarbon
gas liquids) from deep water projects reached 9.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015. Deepwater
production, or production in water of depths greater than 125 meters, has increased 25% from
nearly 7 million b/d a decade ago.
Shallow water has been relatively less expensive and less technically challenging for operators to
explore and drill, but changing economics and the exhaustion of some shallow offshore resources
has helped to push producers to deepwater or, in some areas, ultra deepwater (at depths of 1,500
meters or more) resources. The share of offshore production from shallow water in 2015 was
64%, the lowest on record.
Globally, offshore oil production accounted for about 30% of total oil production over the past
decade. In 2015, offshore production was 29% of total global production, a moderate decrease
from 32% in 2005.
Advancements in drilling technology, dynamic positioning equipment, and floating production and
drilling units have made prospects viable that were previously unreachable.
Although technological advancements have made new areas accessible, deepwater projects
require more investment and time compared to shallow waters or onshore developments. As a
result, most nations with offshore assets operate only in shallow water.
In areas with deepwater operations, production has grown significantly, and in many cases
overtaken shallow-water production.

The majority of deepwater or ultra deepwater production occurs in four countries: Brazil, the
United States, Angola, and Norway. Each of these countries has realized an increasing share of
crude oil production from deepwater
or ultra deepwater projects over the
previous decade. The United States
and Brazil together account for more
than 90% of global ultra deepwater
production, with ultra deepwater
production expected to increase in
2016 and 2017 in both countries.
Brazil leads the world in the
development of deepwater and ultra
deepwater projects. Brazil has
increased deep and or ultra
deepwater production from 1.3 million
b/d in 2005 to 2.2 million b/d in 2015.
An increasing amount of Brazil’s
production comes from presalt
resources found under thick layers of
salt at extreme depths.
The coast of Angola shares similar
geologic features with the coast of
Brazil because of the separation of
the African and South American
tectonic plates during the Early
Cretaceous period, around 150
million years ago. These geological
similarities have led producers in Angola to target several major basins for presalt exploration.

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
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Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile: +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 26 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations
and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas
transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local
authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE
and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase 31 October 2016 K. Al Awadi

New base energy news issue 940 dated 31 october 2016

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New base energy news issue 940 dated 31 october 2016