Studying wine, like other living systems, tells us that life on Earth is in big trouble from the joint threats of the climate and ecological crises. We already live in a world of dangerous climate change and must urgently stop burning fossil fuels and destroying nature.

1. Kimberly Nicholas, PhD
Lund University Centre for Sustainability Science (LUCSUS)
@KA_Nicholas
kimnicholas.com
What can wine tell us about
the future of life on Earth?

2. Image:MarkVogel
@KA_Nicholas

3. @KA_Nicholas
Photo: Wine Spectator, 24 October 2019
Life on Earth is in big trouble
It’s up to us to fix it
• Limit global warming to 1.5°C
• Halt biodiversity loss

4. Nature, biodiversity, ecosystem
services are “deteriorating worldwide”
@KA_Nicholas IPBES Global Assessment, 2019

5. Synthesis of Climate Science
@KA_Nicholas
It’s warming
It’s us
We’re sure
It’s bad We can fix it
5
http://www.kimnicholas.com/climate-science-101.html

6. Life gets worse when it gets too hot
Central Valley
North CoastCentral
Coast
Mean Max August Temp, Avg 1980-2006, °C
Monterey
Santa Cruz
Central Coast
Mendocino
Sonoma
Napa
Solano
Lodi
Davis
Merced
Sacramento Valley
R2=0.89
Nicholas et al., 2011, Ag & Forest Met
Price($/ton)
@KA_Nicholas

7. How climate underpins life
Graphic: Jen Christiansen, Scientific American
@KA_Nicholas
Nicholas, 2015, Scientific American

8. Climate change threatens wine quality
Graphic: Jen Christiansen, Scientific American
@KA_Nicholas
Nicholas, 2015, Scientific American

9. Sugarlevel(degreesBrix)
Long-term wine harvest records
Date Slide from Leanne Webb

10. Sugarlevel(degreesBrix)
Pushing back recording dates
Date Slide from Leanne Webb

11. Wine harvest dates are getting earlier
@KA_Nicholas
winegrape phenology and temperature are so strong that grape
leafout and harvest dates have been used to reconstruct past
temperature regimes (Garcıa de Cortazar-Atauri et al. 2010;
amount of genetic diversity – with
lings to one another (Myles et al. 2
2014).
10
20
30
40
50
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
Harvestdate(daysafter1September)
Region
Bordeaux Burgundy Lower Loire Valley
Fig. 1. Long-te
dates from 180
French winegrow
growing season
varieties: Merlot
franc, Semillon,
Burgundy (avera
15Á7 °C; princ
Chardonnay, Ga
Loire Valley
temperature: 1
Cabernet franc, C
Daux et al. (201
and principal var
(2013). [Colou
wileyonlinelibra
© 2017 The Authors. Journal of Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society, JouWolkovich, Burge, Walker Nicholas, 2017, J Ecology

12. Reconstructing 600 years of climate
with Burgundy harvest dates
Chuine et al., 2004, Nature@KA_Nicholas

13. K. D. Burke et al., 2018, PNAS
@KA_Nicholas
We are leaving the climate of
civilization behind
Homo annotations: Julia Steinberger, 10 Jul 2020, Medium

14. Even 2°C of warming is a different world
Morales-Castilla, … Nicholas, and Wolkovich, 2020, PNAS

15. Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change
Temperature (°C)
change by 2070
4°C of warming would be unrecognizable

16. @KA_Nicholas
Mitigation
Adaptation
Suffering
Mitigation
Adaptation
Suffering
3 choices: Mitigation, Adaptation, Suffering
After John Holdren, quoted in New York Times, 2007

17. @KA_Nicholas
Mitigation
Adaptation
Suffering
Mitigation
Adaptation
Suffering
This would have been way better

18. @KA_Nicholas
Mitigation
Adaptation
Suffering
Mitigation
Adaptation
Suffering
We need way more mitigation adaptation

19. Options for climate adaptation
Nicholas and Durham, 2012, Global Environmental Change
Short-term Long-term
@KA_Nicholas

20. Expanding/moving vineyard areas not sustainable
Nicholas and Durham, 2012, Global Environmental Change
Short-term Long-term
@KA_Nicholas

21. 80% of global winegrowing
uses 1% of available diversity
make high-quality, aromatic wines, discarding other varieties along
the way28
. Though the focus was likely on agronomic characteristics,
growers were also inherently selecting for a suite of additional plant
traits that made regular, high-quality yields from diverse climates
possible.
The result are winegrape varieties today that show high diversity
in their traits, especially those related to climate24,29
. Varieties vary
in their cold and heat tolerance30
, and how they respond to drought
and water stress20
. Perhaps the most noted and well-studied wine-
grape trait related to climate is phenology31–33
. Different varieties of
exported to other regions. In comparison, extremely few variet-
ies were created in other geographic regions with several notable
exceptions (for example, Pinotage; see ref. 39
).
In place of in situ development of new varieties, New World
wine regions (those outside Europe and the Middle East, such as
Australia, Chile, South Africa, and the United States) imported
Old World varieties to build their markets40–43
. This reliance on Old
World varieties was probably driven by the structure of the wine
industry, cultural traditions, and consumer preferences. Like today,
back when many new regions were established (for example, in
–30
Latitude
Latitude
0
30
60
–100
Longitude Longitude
0 100
30
40
50
60
0 10 20 30
0
25
50
75
100
% Intl
1
10
30
50
100
200
Vars n
Fig. 1 | Current planted diversity of wine grapes. The number of varieties (‘Vars n’) by region, and the percentage of each region’s hectares planted with
common 12 varieties (‘% Intl’, called international varieties) varies across the globe, with Europe growing the greatest number of different varieties (largest
circles) and New World wine regions growing the greatest proportion of international varieties (darkest circles). Data from ref. 47.
© 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 8 | JANUARY 2018 | 29–37 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange30
Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change
• Just 12 varieties* (shown in red) constitute most wine worldwide
@KA_Nicholas
*Cabernet-Sauvignon, Chardonnay, Merlot, Pinot noir, Syrah,
Sauvignon blanc, Riesling, Muscat Blanc a Petits Grains, Gewurztraminer, Viognier, Pinot blanc, and Pinot gris

22. Diversify varieties as one climate
adaptation strategy
make high-quality, aromatic wines, discarding other varieties along
the way28
. Though the focus was likely on agronomic characteristics,
growers were also inherently selecting for a suite of additional plant
traits that made regular, high-quality yields from diverse climates
possible.
The result are winegrape varieties today that show high diversity
in their traits, especially those related to climate24,29
. Varieties vary
in their cold and heat tolerance30
, and how they respond to drought
and water stress20
. Perhaps the most noted and well-studied wine-
grape trait related to climate is phenology31–33
. Different varieties of
exported to other regions. In comparison, extremely few variet-
ies were created in other geographic regions with several notable
exceptions (for example, Pinotage; see ref. 39
).
In place of in situ development of new varieties, New World
wine regions (those outside Europe and the Middle East, such as
Australia, Chile, South Africa, and the United States) imported
Old World varieties to build their markets40–43
. This reliance on Old
World varieties was probably driven by the structure of the wine
industry, cultural traditions, and consumer preferences. Like today,
back when many new regions were established (for example, in
–30
Latitude
Latitude
0
30
60
–100
Longitude Longitude
0 100
30
40
50
60
0 10 20 30
0
25
50
75
100
% Intl
1
10
30
50
100
200
Vars n
Fig. 1 | Current planted diversity of wine grapes. The number of varieties (‘Vars n’) by region, and the percentage of each region’s hectares planted with
common 12 varieties (‘% Intl’, called international varieties) varies across the globe, with Europe growing the greatest number of different varieties (largest
circles) and New World wine regions growing the greatest proportion of international varieties (darkest circles). Data from ref. 47.
© 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 8 | JANUARY 2018 | 29–37 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange30
Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change
@KA_Nicholas

23. Diversity in grape development could
help with climate adaptation
@KA_Nicholas Wolkovich, Burger, Walker Nicholas, 2017, J Ecology

24. Use wine diversity to adapt
to changing seasons PERSPECTIVENATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
large—will be in the future by also predicting the turnover of variet-
ies within regions. This would help growers understand how much
A major source for data on diverse winegrape varieties outside
research collections exists in the plantings of hundreds of thou-
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
–2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0
Maturity (early to late ripening) Water use efficiency (low to high)
Density
Variety type
International
Other
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
60 70 80 90
Density
Chardonnay and
Cabernet Sauvignon
Cabernet Sauvignon
Chardonnay
Fig. 4 | Variation across varieties in two traits relevant for climate change. Variation in the fruit ripening phenology (left) of the 12 international varieties
versus a sample of 103 other varieties, maturity measured as weeks from when a reference variety (Chasselas) reached maturity (data from INRA
Domaine de Vassal Grape Collection), and the leaf water use efficiency (ratio of water used versus lost, right) of seven international varieties versus 16
local varieties (from Balearic Islands, Spain, reported by ref. 52
). In many regions growers will need later-ripening grapes with higher water use efficiencies
with climate change, yet the data here show that international varieties are skewed towards earlier ripening and lower water use efficiencies. Values for
two of the most planted varieties—Chardonnay and Cabernet Sauvignon—are shown; on right they are shown by only one arrow because their values only
differ by 0.1.
Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change
@KA_Nicholas
Missing opportunities to adapt
winegrape variety to local climate
12 int’l varieties
103 other varieties

25. Look to diverse areas for possible new varieties
make high-quality, aromatic wines, discarding other varieties along
the way28
. Though the focus was likely on agronomic characteristics,
growers were also inherently selecting for a suite of additional plant
traits that made regular, high-quality yields from diverse climates
possible.
The result are winegrape varieties today that show high diversity
in their traits, especially those related to climate24,29
. Varieties vary
in their cold and heat tolerance30
, and how they respond to drought
and water stress20
. Perhaps the most noted and well-studied wine-
grape trait related to climate is phenology31–33
. Different varieties of
exported to other regions. In comparison, extremely few variet-
ies were created in other geographic regions with several notable
exceptions (for example, Pinotage; see ref. 39
).
In place of in situ development of new varieties, New World
wine regions (those outside Europe and the Middle East, such as
Australia, Chile, South Africa, and the United States) imported
Old World varieties to build their markets40–43
. This reliance on Old
World varieties was probably driven by the structure of the wine
industry, cultural traditions, and consumer preferences. Like today,
back when many new regions were established (for example, in
–30
Latitude
Latitude
0
30
60
–100
Longitude Longitude
0 100
30
40
50
60
0 10 20 30
0
25
50
75
100
% Intl
1
10
30
50
100
200
Vars n
Fig. 1 | Current planted diversity of wine grapes. The number of varieties (‘Vars n’) by region, and the percentage of each region’s hectares planted with
common 12 varieties (‘% Intl’, called international varieties) varies across the globe, with Europe growing the greatest number of different varieties (largest
circles) and New World wine regions growing the greatest proportion of international varieties (darkest circles). Data from ref. 47.
© 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 8 | JANUARY 2018 | 29–37 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange30
Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change
@KA_Nicholas

26. Humanity cannot fully adapt to even +2°C
Morales-Castilla, … Nicholas, and Wolkovich, 2020, PNAS
Harnessing diversity can cut losses about in half
The less
warming, the
less loss and
damage

27. @KA_Nicholas
Mitigation
Adaptation
Suffering
Mitigation
Adaptation
Suffering
This is humanity’s current trajectory

28. @KA_Nicholas
San Francisco Chronicle

29. Frequent, intense risks are intolerable
@KA_Nicholas
Dow et al., 2013, Nature Climate Change

30. @KA_Nicholas
John Blanchard and J.D. Morris, September 29, 2020, San Francisco Chronicle

31. Smith et al., 2015, Nature Climate Change
How to solve climate change:
@KA_Nicholas

32. Stop burning fossil fuels like our lives
depend on it (which they do)
Smith et al., 2015, Nature Climate Change
@KA_Nicholas

33. Stop production consumption of fossil fuels
@KA_Nicholas
Chen et al., 2018, Nature Communications

34. Stop destroying nature
like our lives depend on it
(which they do)
@KA_Nicholas
Smith et al., 2015, Nature Clim Change

35. @KA_Nicholas
Burning fossil fuels =87% CO2
Agriculture/land use = 13% CO2
IPCC Land Report 2019

36. @KA_Nicholas
Emissions have to peak now and plummet to zero

37. Emissions pathway to stay below 1.5°C
warming: must plummet towards zero
@KA_Nicholas
Source: https://www.cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/klima/stylised-pathways-to-well-below-2c
• Rapid transition away
from coal, oil, gas
• Reduced animal
agriculture
• Increase carbon
in soils and
vegetation

38. People alive now (=we!)have to solve climate
@KA_Nicholas
Tollefson, 2019, Nature

39. Staying below 1.5°C requires cutting global
GHG emissions in half in the next decade
@KA_Nicholas
http://www.kimnicholas.com/climate-policy.html

40. “That doesn’t leave much time for dilly-dallying.”
The Princess Bride, 1987
@KA_Nicholas

41. @KA_Nicholas
CO2 in atmosphere
Utsläpp
Kolsänka
Carbon
budget
Stabilizing at any temperature requires sources = sinks
Sources
Sinks

42. @KA_Nicholas
CO2 in atmosphere
Utsläpp
Kolsänka
Carbon
budget
Stabilizing at any temperature
requires sources = sinks
Sources
Sinks

43. EU carbon footprint grossly unequal
@KA_Nicholas
Ivanova Wood, 2020, Global Sustainability
27%
26%

44. 2030 carbon budget for 1.5°C is 2.5 t/cap
@KA_Nicholas
Ivanova Wood, 2020, Global Sustainability
Akenji et al., 2019, 1.5°C Lifestyles
BUDGET:
2.5 t/pp/yr
for 1.5°C

45. 2030 carbon budget for 1.5°C is 2.5 t/cap
@KA_Nicholas
Ivanova Wood, 2020, Global Sustainability
Akenji et al., 2019, 1.5°C Lifestyles
BUDGET:
2.5 t/pp/yr
for 1.5°C
22x over budget
Only 5% within budget

46. Need zero-carbon society to meet 1.5°C
@KA_Nicholas
Ivanova Wood, 2020, Global Sustainability
IPCC, 2018, Global Warming of 1.5°C SPM
2.5 t/pp/yr
for 1.5°C

47. Need to eliminate overconsumption to
meet 1.5°C
@KA_Nicholas
Ivanova Wood, 2020, Global Sustainability
IPCC, 2018, Global Warming of 1.5°C SPM
2.5 t/pp/yr
for 1.5°C

48. Six Steps to Protect Life on Earth
@KA_Nicholas
From Leclère et al., 2020, Nature

49. @KA_Nicholas
Reform and redirect policies for
climate biodiversity stabilization
Scown, Brady, Nicholas, 2020, One Earth

50. @KA_Nicholas 50
3 Principles for Regeneration
1. Respect and protect people
and nature
2. Stop harm at the source
3. Increase resilience
Coming March 23, 2021

51. Image:MarkVogel
@KA_Nicholas
Life on Earth is in big trouble
It’s up to us to fix it
• Limit global warming to 1.5°C
• Halt biodiversity loss