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DECISION ANALYSIS PATTERNS THINKING

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The document discusses four basic patterns of thinking: understanding what's going on, determining why things happened, deciding on a course of action, and anticipating what lies ahead. It then discusses how these patterns are used in organizational contexts through situation appraisal, problem analysis, decision analysis, and potential problem analysis. Decision analysis in particular involves analyzing reasons for decisions, options, and risks to accomplish goals. The characteristics of thinking first, seeing first, and doing first approaches to decision making are also outlined.

BusinessFormation
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DECISION ANALYSIS In S1 Business Prasetiya Mulya Business School
FOUR BASIC PATTERNS OF THINKING ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The ability to ask and answer the questions (‘ what’s going on’, ‘why’, ‘which’ and ‘what lies ahead’ ) made civilization possible By accumulating answers to these questions, humans learned how to deal with complexity, how to discover why things are as they are, how to make good choices, and how to anticipate the future
BASIC PATTERNS OF THINKING IN THE ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
YOUR JOB RECOGNIZE SITUATION SEPERATE SET PRIORITY LOCATE PA OR DA OR PPA POTENTIAL PROBLEM ANALYSIS ENSURE SUCCESS OF ACTIVITY DECISION ANALYSIS CHOOSE A COURSE OF ACTIONS PROBLEM ANALYSIS EXPLAIN A DEVIATION
YOUR JOB Specify Deviation Statement PROBLEM ANALYSIS POTENTIAL PROBLEM ANALYSIS DECISION ANALYSIS Anticipate Likely Causes Anticipate Problems Action Plan Statement Compare & Choose Generate Alternatives Classify Objectives Establish Objectives Decision Statement Verify Test for Probable Cause Develop Possible Cause Provide for Information Select Action
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE 3 APPROACHES TO MAKING DECISIONS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],(HENRY MINTZBERG & FRANCES WESTLEY)
IT WORKS BEST WHEN.. Henry Mintzberg & Frances Westley, 2001 Discipline can be applied Thoughts can be pinned down A few simple relationship rules can help people move forward Communication across boundaries is essential The context is structured Complicated specifications would get in the way Commitment to those solutions is key The data is reliable The situation is novel and confusing Many elements have to be combined into creative solutions The issue is clear DOING FIRST SEEING FIRST THINKING FIRST
… decision theory has now evolved from a somewhat abstract mathematical discipline which when applied was used to help individual decision-makers arrive at optimal decisions, to a framework for thinking that enables different perspectives on a problem to be brought together with the result that new intuitions and higher-level perspectives are generated Phillips L.D. (1989)
Decision analysis will not solve a decision problem, nor is it intended to. Its purpose is to produce insight and promote creativity to help decision makers make better decisions. Keeney, R.L. (1982)

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DECISION ANALYSIS PATTERNS THINKING

  • 1. DECISION ANALYSIS In S1 Business Prasetiya Mulya Business School
  • 2.
  • 3. The ability to ask and answer the questions (‘ what’s going on’, ‘why’, ‘which’ and ‘what lies ahead’ ) made civilization possible By accumulating answers to these questions, humans learned how to deal with complexity, how to discover why things are as they are, how to make good choices, and how to anticipate the future
  • 4.
  • 5. YOUR JOB RECOGNIZE SITUATION SEPERATE SET PRIORITY LOCATE PA OR DA OR PPA POTENTIAL PROBLEM ANALYSIS ENSURE SUCCESS OF ACTIVITY DECISION ANALYSIS CHOOSE A COURSE OF ACTIONS PROBLEM ANALYSIS EXPLAIN A DEVIATION
  • 6. YOUR JOB Specify Deviation Statement PROBLEM ANALYSIS POTENTIAL PROBLEM ANALYSIS DECISION ANALYSIS Anticipate Likely Causes Anticipate Problems Action Plan Statement Compare & Choose Generate Alternatives Classify Objectives Establish Objectives Decision Statement Verify Test for Probable Cause Develop Possible Cause Provide for Information Select Action
  • 7.
  • 8. IT WORKS BEST WHEN.. Henry Mintzberg & Frances Westley, 2001 Discipline can be applied Thoughts can be pinned down A few simple relationship rules can help people move forward Communication across boundaries is essential The context is structured Complicated specifications would get in the way Commitment to those solutions is key The data is reliable The situation is novel and confusing Many elements have to be combined into creative solutions The issue is clear DOING FIRST SEEING FIRST THINKING FIRST
  • 9. … decision theory has now evolved from a somewhat abstract mathematical discipline which when applied was used to help individual decision-makers arrive at optimal decisions, to a framework for thinking that enables different perspectives on a problem to be brought together with the result that new intuitions and higher-level perspectives are generated Phillips L.D. (1989)
  • 10. Decision analysis will not solve a decision problem, nor is it intended to. Its purpose is to produce insight and promote creativity to help decision makers make better decisions. Keeney, R.L. (1982)