2. Peri-urban Futures
The research project
-
Scenario modelling
Rural scenarios
Urban settlement scenarios
Workshop
-
Group work on developing scenario criteria
Conclusion
-
Discussion of groups’ scenarios
Applicability of scenario modelling
3. Peri-urban Futures: New Initiative
2 Year initiative – a collaboration between Spatial
Vision, RMIT and La Trobe
- Other researchers (University of Melbourne)
- Supporting State and local government
Scenario formulation to support peri-urban planning
- Which planning questions?
- Which research concerns?
Sound spatial modelling framework
- Robust
- Transparent
- Defensible
4. Purpose – Rural Landscape Scenario Modelling
Scenario modelling is about:
The testing of alternative policy positions.
Scenario modelling achieves this by exploring three basic
questions:
What will happen?
What can happen?
How can a specific target be reached?
5. Peri-urban Futures Study Area
- 7 Local Government Areas
- Defined by Western and
Calder corridors
- 52 settlements including
Ballarat & Bendigo
- Covers part of two
Regional growth areas,
Loddon Mallee South and
Central Highlands
7. Method: Supply
Rural Land Supply Based Upon:
- Land Occupancy, AND
- Local Planning Zone Subdivision Provisions
8. Method: Demand
Victoria in Future 2012 Dwelling Projections 2011-2041
-Dwelling based Rural / Urban Apportionment Rules
9. Method: The Constraints
Assign a “Constraint” profile to
each Cadastral land parcel:
- Environmental values
- Intensive agriculture
- Climate related impacts
(flood, wildfire risk, sea level rise)
- Prescribed water catchments
- Groundwater management areas
- Heritage values
Impacted (Yes/No) and % Impacted
Native Vegetation = ‘Yes’
Impacted 20%
BMO = ‘Yes’
Impacted 7%
WMO = ‘No’
Impacted 0%
10. Method: Development Pressure
….Formerly referred to as ‘Attractiveness’ indicators
INFRASTRUCTURE
Distance to major roads
Distance to rail commuter nodes
Distance to bus nodes
Access to NBN Broadband – Optic Fibre
Access to NBN Broadband – Fixed Wireless
SETTLEMENTS
Distance from Melbourne
Distance to towns (Services weighted)
Distance to towns (Population weighted)
Distance from towns
Identified Growth Areas (UDP)
DEMOGRAPHIC
Population Density
Historic population growth (1996-2011)
Historic dwelling growth (1996-2011)
SEIFA disadvantage index
SEFIA advantage index
ENVIRONMENT
Distance from Coast
Density of significant landscape
Density of vegetation
Distance from waterbodies and
rivers
12. Outcomes: Profile of parcels used to satisfy demand (2041)
Macedon Ranges Shire
2000
1800
Dwelling take-up (2011-2041)
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Bushfire Risk
Flood Risk
Catchments
Business as Usual
Groundwater
Rural Preservation
Significant Vegetation
Agricultural Land
13. Population re-distribution to urban settlements
Business as Usual
Rural Preservation:
Capacity of townships to absorb
transferred rural dwelling demand
15. Bendigo case study
Scenario
Criteria
Density
Business as usual
greenfield
Development at current trend
densities
12 dwellings per
hectare
Higher density
greenfield
Maximum yield of parcels
over one hectare
25 dwellings per
hectare
Dual occupancy infill Two lot development on
existing occupied and vacant
residential parcels
13 dwellings per
hectare
Activity centre infill
35 dwellings per
hectare
Development occurs on sites
within 400m radius of BZs
16. Bendigo case study
Scenario
Criteria
Density
Residential infill
Development occurs on R1Z
sites identified by CoGB
35 dwellings per
hectare
Other redevelopment Residential development
occurs on infill sites outside
CBD zoned Business and
Industrial identified by CoGB
35 dwellings per
hectare
CBD development
140 dwellings per
hectare
Development on sites
determined as appropriate, to
heights defined by CBD
Strategy
19. Workshop: redistributing projected growth
Where should the region’s 75,661
projected new dwellings go (by
2041)?
- 60,650 in urban settlements
- 15,010 in rural areas
20. Workshop: redistributing projected growth
Where should the region’s 75,661 projected new dwellings go (by 2041)?
-
60,650 in urban settlements
-
15,010 in rural areas
Example scenario: Tenement control
Scenario description
-
Restrict new dwellings on jointly owned multi-lot rural properties
-
New dwellings should instead be built in urban settlements
-
Preference for growth in urban settlements along transport corridors
21. Workshop: redistributing projected growth
Where should the region’s 75,661 projected new dwellings go (by 2041)?
-
60,650 in urban settlements
-
15,010 in rural areas
Scenario criteria
-
Urban settlements: particularly Ballarat and Bendigo, also Gisborne, Bacchus
Marsh, Maryborough
-
Transport corridors
-
Growth to smaller settlements with basic infrastructure eg. Reticulated
water, sewerage
-
Higher residential density development in eligible urban settlements
22. Workshop: redistributing projected growth
Where should the region’s 75,661 projected new dwellings go (by 2041)?
-
60,650 in urban settlements
-
15,010 in rural areas
Rationale for criteria
-
Growth in urban settlements: protects rural landscape including agricultural land,
native vegetation and animal species
-
Reduces rural residential vulnerability to natural hazards eg. Bushfire, flood
-
Transport corridors: potential to travel using methods other than car
-
Smaller settlements without basic infrastructure cannot support growth
-
Higher residential density development: protects existing streetscapes and housing
stock
23. Workshop: redistributing projected growth
Where should the region’s 75,661 projected new dwellings go (by 2041)?
-
60,650 in urban settlements
-
15,010 in rural areas
Policy and regulatory implications
-
Change to Councils’ Municipal Strategic Statements to explicitly protect rural
landscapes from development and direct dwelling demand to well serviced urban
settlements
-
Regulation: Planning zone approach
•
Restrict minimum lot sizes in Farm Zone
•
Require minimum residential densities in urban zones:
eg. 20 dwellings per hectare in Residential 1 Zone in greenfield area
35 dwellings per hectare on infill sites
24. Workshop: redistributing projected growth
Scenario description
Restrict new dwellings on jointly owned multi-lot rural properties
-
New dwellings in urban settlements
-
Preference for growth along transport corridors
-
Ballarat, Bendigo, Gisborne, Bacchus Marsh, Maryborough
-
Transport corridors
-
Scenario criteria
-
Growth to smaller settlements with basic infrastructure eg. Reticulated water,
sewerage
-
Protect rural landscape (agricultural land, native vegetation and animal species)
Reduces rural residential vulnerability to natural hazards
-
Potential to travel using methods other than car
-
No growth in smaller settlements without basic infrastructure
Policy and regulatory
implications
-
Rationale for criteria
Higher residential density development in eligible urban settlements
Protects existing streetscapes and housing stock
-
Municipal Strategic Statements
-
Planning zones
Done using UDP land supply and propensity for households to live in particular dwelling types (2001 to 2011) – three scenarios with different density assumptions for dwelling typesBasically shows that increasing density increases longevity of land supplyThen had a closer look at Bendigo at different approach in different places within the city – in context of new zones coming in and opportunity for councils to rethink how they apply those zones, particularly to accommodate projected population growth
Description of each scenario to give feel for what looked at - main criteria as planning zones, parcel sizes eg. only greenfield over 1ha, only parcels within 400 metres of an activity centre using BZ as proxy
Either calculated density result or applied density to land supply
Scenario which most applicable to peri-urban areas (either on edge of somewhere like Melbourne or also edges of Bendigo and Ballarat) – and for which most demand based on past propensities ie. Australians like their detached housesSee the impact of increasing required density which should then reduce need to rezone more land into the peri-urban area
Can then see how they compare – more density means more supplyAlso analysed Bill’s transferred demand in urban settlements in Bendigo: does put extra pressure on land supplies but again density would be one way to accommodate the extra dwellings and would likely do a combination of the Bendigo modelled scenarios to achieveLast scenario is what will be exploring in groups: how to accommodate the projected dwelling growth for Ballarat and Bendigo
Going to test policy positions – know what is projected to happen ie. business as usualEach group will develop ideas for a scenario where growth should goThen need to think about list of criteria that would use to direct growth ie. rules for a scenario modelWill give some information to inform those criteria:Planisphere settlement hierarchy and infrastructureMaps of region’s urban settlementsDemographic informationEnvironmental informationPlanning zonesGet x minutes, then each group needs to briefly present their perspective and their criteriaAlso have a think about how would actually implement eg. Policies, incentives, programs etc. – our urban settlement approach was simply density – what are some other options?Then finish with group discussion about the policy implications of those approaches – and applicability of using scenario modelling more generallyBut first will show how would describe our tenement control scenario, and then they can follow that structure (if they want to!)
Will leave this up for them to refer toAfter x minutes, come back as a group with one person report backThen can talk about the applicability of scenario modelling once have had a chance to think about how to go about it