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Risk-based Security
Technical Debt Reduction:
When everything’s
important, nothing gets done
Laurie	Williams
laurie_williams@ncsu.edu
Real	People	– Real	Projects	– Real	Impact	1
Short(er) term focus
Evolvability
Maintainability
Security Risk
Think Like a Thief
• Put yourself in the mind of a thief …
Plan a robbery!
• Choose a scenario that would have a high chance of success,
lay out the details …
• How long do you think it would take to plan & execute the
theft? How much would you hope to gain in terms of value ($
or otherwise)? What would be the effect of the theft on the
victim?
4 minutes … be
ready to share
Malicious Intent!
Value Ease
Enables
Oops! I didn’t mean to do that!
Value Ease
http://xkcd.com/1698
Theft Quadrants
Value
Ease
Evolvability
Maintainability
Security Risk
Computing Security Risk Exposure
Traditional Risk
Exposure
probability of
occurrence
X impact of loss
NIST Security Risk
Exposure
likelihood of threat-
source exercising
vulnerability
X impact of adverse event on
organization
Proposed Security
Risk Exposure
ease of attack X value of asset
?
David	the	Detected	
Edwin	the	Exploitable
Adam	the	Attack-prone
? 9
Shift efforts right
Larry	the	Latent
10
11
Many
thanks!
With the very best of intentions …
when everything’s important, nothing gets
done.
Vulnerable components Checked in Secrets
State of Vulnerable Components
13
* Snyk: State of Open Source Dependencies 2019
Vulnerable components Checked in Secrets
Value Ease
Increases over timeSeverity (e.g. CVSS)
Depth in dependency tree?
Popularity of package
Vulnerable components Checked in Secrets
Developer actions
•Git Notified*:
• 262K GitHub projects; Jan 2017 – Dec 2018
• 13% of vulnerable components fixed after GitHub
notification
• Pretty lame … but it can get worse ..
• 9% of vulnerable components fixed after CVE notification
but before GitHub notification
• Tools are needed!
• 40% fixed if notified at time of vulnerability-introducing
commit
• Shift left!
• No difference in fix rate when considering severity
• What’s up with that?
15
*Git Notified: Characterizing Vulnerable Dependency Alerts on GitHub
???
Vulnerable components Checked in Secrets
16
Don’t actually use the
vulnerable part of the
dependency
Don’t actually use the
dependency
CVE / NVD
Dependency is in non-
production code.
Advisories
13% are fixed –
from the white or
grey?
Some obscure package
it’s unlikely an attacker
write an exploit for
Vulnerable components Checked in Secrets
Tools help … and are beginning to focus on risk
and more….
Vulnerable components Checked in Secrets
With the very best of intentions …
when everything’s important, nothing gets
done.
Vulnerable components Checked in secrets
Value Ease
Varies wildly!
All code matters
Varies wildly!
Decreases over time
p(password/key works)
p(asset is still there)
Vulnerable components Checked in secrets
Infrastructure as Code Security Smells
Admin	by	default
Empty	password
Hard-coded	secret	
Invalid	IP	address	binding	
Suspicious	comment	
Use	of	HTTP	without	TLS
Use	of	weak	cryptography	algorithm	
$power_username=‘admin’
password=>‘’
$power_password=‘admin’
$bind_host=‘0.0.0.0’
#FIXME(bogdando) remove these hacks
after switched to systemd service.units
$quantum_auth_url = ‘http://127.0.0.1:35357/v2.0’
password => ht_md5($power_password)
20
* Gang of Eight: A Defect Taxonomy for Infrastructure as CodeScripts
Vulnerable components Checked in secrets
Frequency	of	Security	Smells
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
GitHub Mozilla Openstack Wikimedia
ProportionofScript(%)
AdminByDefault EmptyPassword HardCodedSecret InvalidIPAddressBinding
SuspiciousComments HTTPWithoutTLS WeakCryptoAlgorithm
21
Vulnerable components Checked in secrets
GitHub Analysis
• “billions of files”
• Private key files
• 11 high-impact platforms with distinctive API key formats
• Secret leakage in 100,000 repositories … thousands of new, unique
secrets are leaked every day.
• Committing cryptographic key files and API keys embedded directly in
code are the main causes of leakage.
22
How Bad Can It Git? Characterizing Secret Leakage in Public GitHub Repositories
Vulnerable components Checked in secrets
Protection Poker
Secret
Ease
Points
Value
Points
Security
Risk Ranking
Secret 1 1 100 100 3
Secret 2 5 0 0 6
Secret 3 5 0 0 6
Secret 4 20 5 100 3
Secret 5 13 13 169 2
Secret 6 1 40 40 5
Secret 7 40 60 2400 1
Vulnerable components Checked in secrets
Tools can help
24
STATICALLY
IDENTIFY
SECRETS
MACHINE
LEARNING TO
REDUCE FALSE
POSITIVES
NOTIFY UPON
CHECK IN
(SHIFT LEFT)
BUT, ALL
SECRETS ARE
”EQUAL” …
Tools can help
25
STATICALLY
IDENTIFY
SECRETS
MACHINE
LEARNING TO
REDUCE FALSE
POSITIVES
NOTIFY UPON
CHECK IN
(SHIFT LEFT)
BUT, ALL
SECRETS ARE
”EQUAL” …
Vulnerable components Checked in secrets
Technical Debt: 3D
Evolvability
Maintainability
Security Risk
Value Ease
Be compassionate …. For the
good of the product and the
engineer … be driven by risk
Edwin	the	Exploitable
Adam	the	Attack-prone
Images
• https://www.growthsourcecoaching.com/blog/when-everything-is-a-priority-nothing-is-important
• http://blog.aclipse.net/teach-in-korea/classroom-tips-wh-questions-and-cold-calling
• https://blog.frontiersin.org/2020/04/17/dance-with-your-grandma-after-covid-19-of-course/
• https://keydifferences.com/difference-between-data-and-information.html
• https://resources.infosecinstitute.com/attack-surface-reduction/#gref
• http://www.keytothekingdom.com/
• http://www.rmmagazine.com/2016/12/12/the-cost-of-complexity/
• https://www.cio.com.au/article/569270/internet-designed-security-warns-international-expert/
• https://ayehu.com/5-cyber-security-incident-response-risks-and-how-to-avoid-them-using-automation/
• https://medium.com/swlh/on-urgent-important-and-immediate-5eb318f99d1e
• https://www.cio.com.au/article/569270/internet-designed-security-warns-international-expert/
27
Images
• https://dementiacarebooks.com/how-to-become-a-dementia-behavior-detective/
• https://pixabay.com/vectors/fish-hook-fishing-hook-recreation-2027781/
• https://prosportstickers.219signs.com/index.php?route=product/product&product_id=37152
• http://www.brianbarber.com/illustration/
• https://prosportstickers.219signs.com/index.php?route=product/product&product_id=37152
• https://drawception.com/game/HM8CfM7pHD/sleepy-fish/
• Vectorstock.com/9961574
• https://requestreduce.org/categories/fish-trap-clipart.html#overlayGallery9_post_17509_fish-
trap-clipart-17.png
• http://www.e2studysolution.com/news/How-can-I-become-a-Cybersecurity-Expert
• https://www.zazzle.com/red_star_1st_prize_round_sticker_red-217743138139492519
• https://www.datanami.com/2016/09/23/past-present-future-finance/
• https://easydrawingguides.com/how-to-draw-a-whale/
• https://achievingbeautifuldreams.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/50-50.jpg
• https://www.merchantmaverick.com/best-high-risk-merchant-account-providers/
• https://digest.bps.org.uk/2018/03/21/is-the-future-ahead-not-for-those-born-blind/ 28
Images
• https://www.monitis.com/blog/why-your-small-business-needs-penetration-
testing/
• https://www.foolishbricks.com/day-276-the-needle-in-the-haystack/
• https://betanews.com/2016/06/30/solve-shortage-data-scientists/
• https://www.playstation.com/en-gb/games/need-for-speed-ps4/
• https://www.bizcatalyst360.com/casting-a-wide-net-while-innovating/
• https://simpleprogrammer.com/get-programming-job-no-experience/
• https://towardsdatascience.com/organizing-your-first-text-analytics-project-
ce350dea3a4a
• https://www.mnn.com/green-tech/research-innovations/quiz/can-you-pass-
governments-10-simple-science-question-quiz
• https://marketeer.kapost.com/programming-for-marketers/
• http://www.devsanon.com/page/4/
29
30
Vulnerabilities in
indirect dependencies
account for 78% of
overall vulnerabilities.
Risk of a
vulnerability in a
dependency of a
dependency of a
dependency of a
dependency?
(Unknown)
* Snyk: State of Open Source Dependencies 2019
Vulnerable components Checked in Secrets

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Risk-based Security Technical Debt Reduction: When everything’s important, nothing gets done

  • 1. Risk-based Security Technical Debt Reduction: When everything’s important, nothing gets done Laurie Williams laurie_williams@ncsu.edu Real People – Real Projects – Real Impact 1
  • 3. Think Like a Thief • Put yourself in the mind of a thief … Plan a robbery! • Choose a scenario that would have a high chance of success, lay out the details … • How long do you think it would take to plan & execute the theft? How much would you hope to gain in terms of value ($ or otherwise)? What would be the effect of the theft on the victim? 4 minutes … be ready to share
  • 4. Malicious Intent! Value Ease Enables Oops! I didn’t mean to do that!
  • 8. Computing Security Risk Exposure Traditional Risk Exposure probability of occurrence X impact of loss NIST Security Risk Exposure likelihood of threat- source exercising vulnerability X impact of adverse event on organization Proposed Security Risk Exposure ease of attack X value of asset
  • 10. 10
  • 12. With the very best of intentions … when everything’s important, nothing gets done. Vulnerable components Checked in Secrets
  • 13. State of Vulnerable Components 13 * Snyk: State of Open Source Dependencies 2019 Vulnerable components Checked in Secrets
  • 14. Value Ease Increases over timeSeverity (e.g. CVSS) Depth in dependency tree? Popularity of package Vulnerable components Checked in Secrets
  • 15. Developer actions •Git Notified*: • 262K GitHub projects; Jan 2017 – Dec 2018 • 13% of vulnerable components fixed after GitHub notification • Pretty lame … but it can get worse .. • 9% of vulnerable components fixed after CVE notification but before GitHub notification • Tools are needed! • 40% fixed if notified at time of vulnerability-introducing commit • Shift left! • No difference in fix rate when considering severity • What’s up with that? 15 *Git Notified: Characterizing Vulnerable Dependency Alerts on GitHub ??? Vulnerable components Checked in Secrets
  • 16. 16 Don’t actually use the vulnerable part of the dependency Don’t actually use the dependency CVE / NVD Dependency is in non- production code. Advisories 13% are fixed – from the white or grey? Some obscure package it’s unlikely an attacker write an exploit for Vulnerable components Checked in Secrets
  • 17. Tools help … and are beginning to focus on risk and more…. Vulnerable components Checked in Secrets
  • 18. With the very best of intentions … when everything’s important, nothing gets done. Vulnerable components Checked in secrets
  • 19. Value Ease Varies wildly! All code matters Varies wildly! Decreases over time p(password/key works) p(asset is still there) Vulnerable components Checked in secrets
  • 20. Infrastructure as Code Security Smells Admin by default Empty password Hard-coded secret Invalid IP address binding Suspicious comment Use of HTTP without TLS Use of weak cryptography algorithm $power_username=‘admin’ password=>‘’ $power_password=‘admin’ $bind_host=‘0.0.0.0’ #FIXME(bogdando) remove these hacks after switched to systemd service.units $quantum_auth_url = ‘http://127.0.0.1:35357/v2.0’ password => ht_md5($power_password) 20 * Gang of Eight: A Defect Taxonomy for Infrastructure as CodeScripts Vulnerable components Checked in secrets
  • 21. Frequency of Security Smells 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 GitHub Mozilla Openstack Wikimedia ProportionofScript(%) AdminByDefault EmptyPassword HardCodedSecret InvalidIPAddressBinding SuspiciousComments HTTPWithoutTLS WeakCryptoAlgorithm 21 Vulnerable components Checked in secrets
  • 22. GitHub Analysis • “billions of files” • Private key files • 11 high-impact platforms with distinctive API key formats • Secret leakage in 100,000 repositories … thousands of new, unique secrets are leaked every day. • Committing cryptographic key files and API keys embedded directly in code are the main causes of leakage. 22 How Bad Can It Git? Characterizing Secret Leakage in Public GitHub Repositories Vulnerable components Checked in secrets
  • 23. Protection Poker Secret Ease Points Value Points Security Risk Ranking Secret 1 1 100 100 3 Secret 2 5 0 0 6 Secret 3 5 0 0 6 Secret 4 20 5 100 3 Secret 5 13 13 169 2 Secret 6 1 40 40 5 Secret 7 40 60 2400 1 Vulnerable components Checked in secrets
  • 24. Tools can help 24 STATICALLY IDENTIFY SECRETS MACHINE LEARNING TO REDUCE FALSE POSITIVES NOTIFY UPON CHECK IN (SHIFT LEFT) BUT, ALL SECRETS ARE ”EQUAL” … Tools can help 25 STATICALLY IDENTIFY SECRETS MACHINE LEARNING TO REDUCE FALSE POSITIVES NOTIFY UPON CHECK IN (SHIFT LEFT) BUT, ALL SECRETS ARE ”EQUAL” … Vulnerable components Checked in secrets
  • 26. Be compassionate …. For the good of the product and the engineer … be driven by risk Edwin the Exploitable Adam the Attack-prone
  • 27. Images • https://www.growthsourcecoaching.com/blog/when-everything-is-a-priority-nothing-is-important • http://blog.aclipse.net/teach-in-korea/classroom-tips-wh-questions-and-cold-calling • https://blog.frontiersin.org/2020/04/17/dance-with-your-grandma-after-covid-19-of-course/ • https://keydifferences.com/difference-between-data-and-information.html • https://resources.infosecinstitute.com/attack-surface-reduction/#gref • http://www.keytothekingdom.com/ • http://www.rmmagazine.com/2016/12/12/the-cost-of-complexity/ • https://www.cio.com.au/article/569270/internet-designed-security-warns-international-expert/ • https://ayehu.com/5-cyber-security-incident-response-risks-and-how-to-avoid-them-using-automation/ • https://medium.com/swlh/on-urgent-important-and-immediate-5eb318f99d1e • https://www.cio.com.au/article/569270/internet-designed-security-warns-international-expert/ 27
  • 28. Images • https://dementiacarebooks.com/how-to-become-a-dementia-behavior-detective/ • https://pixabay.com/vectors/fish-hook-fishing-hook-recreation-2027781/ • https://prosportstickers.219signs.com/index.php?route=product/product&product_id=37152 • http://www.brianbarber.com/illustration/ • https://prosportstickers.219signs.com/index.php?route=product/product&product_id=37152 • https://drawception.com/game/HM8CfM7pHD/sleepy-fish/ • Vectorstock.com/9961574 • https://requestreduce.org/categories/fish-trap-clipart.html#overlayGallery9_post_17509_fish- trap-clipart-17.png • http://www.e2studysolution.com/news/How-can-I-become-a-Cybersecurity-Expert • https://www.zazzle.com/red_star_1st_prize_round_sticker_red-217743138139492519 • https://www.datanami.com/2016/09/23/past-present-future-finance/ • https://easydrawingguides.com/how-to-draw-a-whale/ • https://achievingbeautifuldreams.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/50-50.jpg • https://www.merchantmaverick.com/best-high-risk-merchant-account-providers/ • https://digest.bps.org.uk/2018/03/21/is-the-future-ahead-not-for-those-born-blind/ 28
  • 29. Images • https://www.monitis.com/blog/why-your-small-business-needs-penetration- testing/ • https://www.foolishbricks.com/day-276-the-needle-in-the-haystack/ • https://betanews.com/2016/06/30/solve-shortage-data-scientists/ • https://www.playstation.com/en-gb/games/need-for-speed-ps4/ • https://www.bizcatalyst360.com/casting-a-wide-net-while-innovating/ • https://simpleprogrammer.com/get-programming-job-no-experience/ • https://towardsdatascience.com/organizing-your-first-text-analytics-project- ce350dea3a4a • https://www.mnn.com/green-tech/research-innovations/quiz/can-you-pass- governments-10-simple-science-question-quiz • https://marketeer.kapost.com/programming-for-marketers/ • http://www.devsanon.com/page/4/ 29
  • 30. 30 Vulnerabilities in indirect dependencies account for 78% of overall vulnerabilities. Risk of a vulnerability in a dependency of a dependency of a dependency of a dependency? (Unknown) * Snyk: State of Open Source Dependencies 2019 Vulnerable components Checked in Secrets