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The Future of Advertising:
                              The Death of Advertising




Thursday, February 21, 2013
Thursday, February 21, 2013
T O D AY



                              awareness
                                     awareness
                               interest
                                          interest


                                desire    desire


                                           action
                                action




Thursday, February 21, 2013
T O D AY



                               50%

                                               42%
                              37.5%


                               25%
                                                                         25%
                                       22%

                              12.5%


                                0%                               1%
                                      Online   TV               Mobile   Print


                                                     Media Spending



Thursday, February 21, 2013
T O D AY



                               50%
                                                                  42%
                                                       43%
                              37.5%

                                                                                                       25%
                               25%    26%    22%



                              12.5%
                                                                        10%
                                                                                   1%     7%
                                0%
                                        Online               TV           Mobile               Print


                                                   Media Time                 Media Spending



Thursday, February 21, 2013
SUCCESS?



    “In most categories a brand’s market share is stationary”

    4 out of 5 categories seen as increasingly homogeneous

    Less than 1 in 10 ads seen as different

    4% response rate successful in DM

    0.05% average click through rate for banners



    Sources: Ehrenberg Bass Institute, Google


Thursday, February 21, 2013
Why?




Thursday, February 21, 2013
Thursday, February 21, 2013
old assumptions


                                            old models of communication


                                                           old behavior


                                                                          misplaced
                                                                          action




Thursday, February 21, 2013
Thursday, February 21, 2013
Thursday, February 21, 2013
CYN I C I S M




Thursday, February 21, 2013
CYN I C I S M




Thursday, February 21, 2013
TH E SEARCH FOR AUTH E NTICITY




Thursday, February 21, 2013
Thursday, February 21, 2013
BOREDOM




Thursday, February 21, 2013
The fact is, if you have to advertise,
                                     you have already lost




Thursday, February 21, 2013
BOREDOM



     There is no new news




Thursday, February 21, 2013
BOREDOM



     Situation: Oversupply




Thursday, February 21, 2013
A N D Y E T. . . .



     We’re still to focused on our categories




Thursday, February 21, 2013
U PPE R LE FT COR N E R TITLE




                        “people look at what interests them and sometimes it’s your ad.”




Thursday, February 21, 2013
ADVE RTI S I N G I S N OT EVE RYTH I N G




Thursday, February 21, 2013
WE’R E US I N G TH E WR O N G SYSTE M



     We’re thinking linearly



                               Strategy    Campaign    Result



                                           Rational   Emotional
                              Attributes
                                           Benefit      Benefit



Thursday, February 21, 2013
E NTROPY



     Reality is random




                              low entropy   high entropy




Thursday, February 21, 2013
COM PLEXITY EXPLAI NS MOR E




Thursday, February 21, 2013
T E C H N O L O G Y H A S A C C E L E R AT E D T H I S



     More participation

     More social and communal

     More fragmented

     More transparent

     Always on




Thursday, February 21, 2013
C U LT U R E I S C O M P L E X




                              “it takes a thousand voices
                                   to tell a single story”
                                      Native American Saying




Thursday, February 21, 2013
C U LT U R E I S C O M P L E X




Thursday, February 21, 2013
Thursday, February 21, 2013
TH E COOLI DG E E FFECT




Thursday, February 21, 2013
R E S U LT : W E ’ R E M E A S U R I N G T H E W R O N G T H I N G S



     awareness…
           …when meaning and familiarity matter more in our world
           of overchoice

     attitude…
             ...attitude and attributes, adjusted for size, don’t change

     image
                       …image doesn’t shift until after behavior




Thursday, February 21, 2013
IT’S ALL AB O UT TH E E N E R GY



     Y&R’s BAV found that brand energy changes the
     dynamics of differentiation and relevance




Thursday, February 21, 2013
R E S U LT : W E C R A V E C O N S I S T E N C Y




                                 consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative




Thursday, February 21, 2013
R E S U LT : W E C R A V E C O N S I S T E N C Y



     But rigid consistency is not necessary

                              100%

                              75%
                                              74%                             72%
                              50%

                              25%

                               0%
                                         No Integration                 Advertising Led

                                     Effectiveness Success rate of each Integration Model




Thursday, February 21, 2013
O U R B R A I N S A R E T R A I N E D T O L O O K F O R P AT T E R N S




Thursday, February 21, 2013
B U T I T TA K E S R A N D O M N E S S T O S TA N D O U T




                               “the more random the source
                                of information, the higher it’s
                                    entropy and the more
                                      information it has “




Thursday, February 21, 2013
How do we get better?




Thursday, February 21, 2013
DON’T B E LI N EAR



     Be intertwingled




Thursday, February 21, 2013
DON’T B E LI N EAR



     Design for gaps




Thursday, February 21, 2013
DON’T B E LI N EAR



     Brands as chords or molecules, not onions

                                                                                                                                          specials eg
                                                                                                                language,                  frappucino
                                                                                                               eg skinny
                                                                                                                               habits
                                                                                                                             formation
                                                                       my sister
                                                                        book                                     range
                                                                                                               and options

                                                                                                                                            book
                                                                              barista
                                                                              culture
                                                                                                     better                                reading
                                                                                                                       ordering
                                                                                                     coffee            system                           akelah and
                                                       used grounds                                  mission                                              the bee
                                                       for gardeners                                                                  in store
                                                                                     starbucks
                                                                                                               sofas and            performance
                                                                                     company
                                                                      social                                   ambience                and art  starbucks
                                                                   responsibility                                                                 salon
                                                                                             africa 05
                                                                                                                          hearmusic
                                                          fair trade                                           Xm
                                                            coffee
                                                                                                  music cd
                                                                          cause
                                                                                                                    burn your own
                                                                         publicity
                                                                                                                          cd
                                                                         in store



      Source: John Grant, Brand Innovation Manifesto

Thursday, February 21, 2013
C R E AT E C U LT U R E



     Don’t intrude on it




Thursday, February 21, 2013
C R E AT E C U LT U R E



     Don’t intrude on it




Thursday, February 21, 2013
C R E AT E C U LT U R E



     Have a belief




Thursday, February 21, 2013
C R E AT E C U LT U R E



     Do, Don’t Say




Thursday, February 21, 2013
C R E AT E C U LT U R E



     Do, Don’t Say




Thursday, February 21, 2013
BE USEFUL




      Source: The Future of Advertising, Mark Earls and John Wilshire

Thursday, February 21, 2013
BE USEFUL



     Give gifts




Thursday, February 21, 2013
ACT SMALL




Thursday, February 21, 2013
TH I N K SMALL




Thursday, February 21, 2013
A LW AY S B E L E A R N I N G




Thursday, February 21, 2013
M E A S U R E C O R R E C T LY



     Focus on behavior not attitudes




Thursday, February 21, 2013
TH I N K I N S I D E TH E B OX




Thursday, February 21, 2013
I N SU M MARY



     Modern communication ideas need to be...

     ...more about doing than saying

     ...come from culture not commerce

     ...be participatory and designed for gaps

     ...be always on

     ...create, don’t fill media space

      Source: Gareth Kay

Thursday, February 21, 2013
Thank you

                              @marklewis_sf




Thursday, February 21, 2013

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The Future of Advertising: Death of Advertising

  • 1. The Future of Advertising: The Death of Advertising Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 3. T O D AY awareness awareness interest interest desire desire action action Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 4. T O D AY 50% 42% 37.5% 25% 25% 22% 12.5% 0% 1% Online TV Mobile Print Media Spending Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 5. T O D AY 50% 42% 43% 37.5% 25% 25% 26% 22% 12.5% 10% 1% 7% 0% Online TV Mobile Print Media Time Media Spending Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 6. SUCCESS? “In most categories a brand’s market share is stationary” 4 out of 5 categories seen as increasingly homogeneous Less than 1 in 10 ads seen as different 4% response rate successful in DM 0.05% average click through rate for banners Sources: Ehrenberg Bass Institute, Google Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 9. old assumptions old models of communication old behavior misplaced action Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 12. CYN I C I S M Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 13. CYN I C I S M Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 14. TH E SEARCH FOR AUTH E NTICITY Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 17. The fact is, if you have to advertise, you have already lost Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 18. BOREDOM There is no new news Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 19. BOREDOM Situation: Oversupply Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 20. A N D Y E T. . . . We’re still to focused on our categories Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 21. U PPE R LE FT COR N E R TITLE “people look at what interests them and sometimes it’s your ad.” Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 22. ADVE RTI S I N G I S N OT EVE RYTH I N G Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 23. WE’R E US I N G TH E WR O N G SYSTE M We’re thinking linearly Strategy Campaign Result Rational Emotional Attributes Benefit Benefit Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 24. E NTROPY Reality is random low entropy high entropy Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 25. COM PLEXITY EXPLAI NS MOR E Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 26. T E C H N O L O G Y H A S A C C E L E R AT E D T H I S More participation More social and communal More fragmented More transparent Always on Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 27. C U LT U R E I S C O M P L E X “it takes a thousand voices to tell a single story” Native American Saying Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 28. C U LT U R E I S C O M P L E X Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 30. TH E COOLI DG E E FFECT Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 31. R E S U LT : W E ’ R E M E A S U R I N G T H E W R O N G T H I N G S awareness… …when meaning and familiarity matter more in our world of overchoice attitude… ...attitude and attributes, adjusted for size, don’t change image …image doesn’t shift until after behavior Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 32. IT’S ALL AB O UT TH E E N E R GY Y&R’s BAV found that brand energy changes the dynamics of differentiation and relevance Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 33. R E S U LT : W E C R A V E C O N S I S T E N C Y consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 34. R E S U LT : W E C R A V E C O N S I S T E N C Y But rigid consistency is not necessary 100% 75% 74% 72% 50% 25% 0% No Integration Advertising Led Effectiveness Success rate of each Integration Model Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 35. O U R B R A I N S A R E T R A I N E D T O L O O K F O R P AT T E R N S Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 36. B U T I T TA K E S R A N D O M N E S S T O S TA N D O U T “the more random the source of information, the higher it’s entropy and the more information it has “ Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 37. How do we get better? Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 38. DON’T B E LI N EAR Be intertwingled Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 39. DON’T B E LI N EAR Design for gaps Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 40. DON’T B E LI N EAR Brands as chords or molecules, not onions specials eg language, frappucino eg skinny habits formation my sister book range and options book barista culture better reading ordering coffee system akelah and used grounds mission the bee for gardeners in store starbucks sofas and performance company social ambience and art starbucks responsibility salon africa 05 hearmusic fair trade Xm coffee music cd cause burn your own publicity cd in store Source: John Grant, Brand Innovation Manifesto Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 41. C R E AT E C U LT U R E Don’t intrude on it Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 42. C R E AT E C U LT U R E Don’t intrude on it Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 43. C R E AT E C U LT U R E Have a belief Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 44. C R E AT E C U LT U R E Do, Don’t Say Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 45. C R E AT E C U LT U R E Do, Don’t Say Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 46. BE USEFUL Source: The Future of Advertising, Mark Earls and John Wilshire Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 47. BE USEFUL Give gifts Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 49. TH I N K SMALL Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 50. A LW AY S B E L E A R N I N G Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 51. M E A S U R E C O R R E C T LY Focus on behavior not attitudes Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 52. TH I N K I N S I D E TH E B OX Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 53. I N SU M MARY Modern communication ideas need to be... ...more about doing than saying ...come from culture not commerce ...be participatory and designed for gaps ...be always on ...create, don’t fill media space Source: Gareth Kay Thursday, February 21, 2013
  • 54. Thank you @marklewis_sf Thursday, February 21, 2013