The document summarizes Brian Kelly's presentation on predicting and preparing for emerging learning technologies. It discusses identifying technology trends, drivers, and challenges through the Delphi process used by the NMC Horizon Report. It also provides tools and methods for institutions to plan for future technologies, including scenario planning, acknowledging risks, and engaging with challenges. The presentation aims to help attendees understand limitations of future forecasting and apply similar methodologies to plan locally.

1. 1
Predicting and Preparing For Emerging Learning Technologies
Brian Kelly, UK Web Focus
A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 conference

2. Predicting and Preparing For Emerging
Learning Technologies
CILIP West Midlands 2017 Annual Members Day, Birmingham on 10 Feb 2017
Brian Kelly
Independent researcher/consultant at UK Web Focus
Ltd.
UK Web Focus at UKOLN, 1997-2013
Innovation Advocate at CETIS, 2013-2015
Contact Details
Brian Kelly
Email: ukwebfocus@gmail.com
Twitter: @briankelly
Blog: http://ukwebfocus.com/
Slides and further information available at
http://ukwebfocus.com/events/cilip-west-midlands-2017/
UK Web Focus Event hashtag: #MembersDay17
View slides & abstract at
http://bitly.com/cilipwm17-kelly
Tweet comments with #MembersDay17

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4. Abstract
We continue to see developments in online services which provide
both opportunities and challenges for librarians. The implications of
technical developments on library services is made difficult to predict
in light of financial, political and cultural uncertainties.
Brian Kelly will describe the methodology used by the NMC (New
Media Consortium) for the NMC Horizon Report > 2014 Library Edition,
NMC Horizon Report > 2017 Higher Education Edition and
the forthcoming NMC Horizon Report > 2017 Library Edition for
identifying technological developments likely to be important.
Brian will then introduce a methodology for developing plans for
making use of such developments within the institution.
Learning Outcomes:
1. Understand limitations of approaches to future-gazing
2. Learn about future-gazing methodology used by NMC
3. Hear about application of methodologies across library sectors
4. Be aware of resources which can be used locally 4

5. Contents
Introduction
• About me
Identifying Developments
• The NMC Horizon Report for Libraries & the Delphi
process:
 What are the major technology trends?
 Beyond the technology trends – the drivers
accelerating technology adoption
 Beyond the technology trends & drivers – the
challenges impeding technology adoption
• Carrying out your own future-gazing & planning work
Institutional Planning
• Preparing for the implications
• Conclusions 5
Introduction

6. 6
About Me
Brian Kelly
• UK Web Focus at UKOLN from 1996-2013
• Innovative Advocate at Cetis from 2013-2015
• Now independent consultant
• Interests in promoting use of innovative technologies
and practices in higher education & library sectors
In recent years:
• Gave talks on planning for the future at ILI
(Internet Librarian International) & JIBS events
• Delivered “planning for the future” half-day
workshops at international library conferences
in South Africa, London & Bath
• Presented paper on “Reflecting on Yesterday,
Understanding Today, Planning for Tomorrow”
paper at Umbrella 2013
• Invited expert for NMC Horizon Report, Academic Libraries 2014
Introduction

7. “Experts”
Today’s environment:
• Experts are being criticised
and growth in terms such as:
• “Post-truth”
• “Alternative facts”
7
Critiquing Brexiteers / Trumpeters
is easy – but what if there is
some validity to argument?!
The real reason that we don‘t trust
experts anymore, Julie Shaw, The
Independent, 8 July 2016
The real reason that we don‘t trust
experts anymore, Julia Shaw, The
Independent, 8 July 2016

8. Predicting the Future: The Risks
Risks in attempting to predict the future:
• We get it wrong
– the future didn’t materialise
• We get it wrong
– we were too cautious
• Futurologists have biases
8
Predictions

9. Looking at the Futurologists
• Gartner report
9

10. Gartner
Beware vested
interests which
may be
threatened by
implications of
predictions
10
Gartner May Be Too
Scared To Say It, But the
PC Is Dead,
Mark Hachman,
Readwrite Web, 5 April
2013

11. We commission
reports from
experts in the field
11PDF

12. We commission
reports from
experts in the field
12
… is an information professional who has specialized
in the fields of electronic information provision for over
20 years.
In recent years, he has specialized in metadata for
digital libraries, in which capacity he is a member of
the editorial board for the METS (Metadata Encoding
and Transmission Standard) standard for digital library
metadata.

13. Invention, Innovation, Improvement
From Wikipedia:
Invention: the creation of the idea or method itself.
Innovation: the use of a better and, as a result, novel
idea or method.
Improvement: doing current activities better.
Assertion 1:
Our focus is on innovation and improvement
Assertion 2:
Innovations and improvements probably already known
to us (forget inventions such as the Web!)
Assertion 3:
You will learn about relevant innovations and
improvements from your peers
13

14. A Collaborative Approach
We could use Twitter
14
Tweet your ideas
with event hashtag
I think teleporting could have implications for libraries in the future!
#MembersDay17
Teleporting could have implications for libraries as people won’t be put off
from visiting when it’s raining! #MembersDay17
and implications
for libraries
We would therefore need larger physical spaces for the teleporting visitors to
the library #MembersDay17
Discuss alternative
implications …
So maybe the books could be teleported. Would we need a physical library
building #MembersDay17
14
& issues such as legal
implications, business
models, …
What about the legal implication? Border control? Which VAT rate to use?
Importing banned book? … #MembersDay17 #wtf
Feel free to add
implications for users
…
Open collaborative approaches can help minimise biases, provide fresh
insights, … but Twitter probably isn’t the best tool for this!

15. THE Article
Article which summarised the
“6 key trends accelerating
technology adoption in
higher education in 2015”
published in Times Higher
Education on 23 Feb 2015
Based on the NMC Horizon
Report: 2015 Higher
Education Edition
15

16. About the NMC Horizon Library Study
16
NMC Horizon Report, 2014:
Library edition:
• Published in Aug 2014
• Based on ideas from panel
of experts
• Ideas refined using Delphi
process
• Report available under
Creative Commons licence
Your interests:
• What are the technology trends? What are the implications for me?
• What is the ‘Delphi process’? Can I use it?

17. NMC Panel
Panel composed of 47
library and technology
experts from 16
countries on five
continents (including 3
from UK)
17
Note NMC Horizon
Library Report 2017 is
still being prepared (due
for publication at ACRL
2017 on 23 March 2017)

18. Short-Term Technology Trends
What technology trends did the NMC Horizon panel identify?
18
Seven key categories were identified:
TechnologyTrends

19. Short-Term Technology Trends
Two areas of importance in the short-term (<1 year to
adoption) were identified and prioritised:
19
“electronic publishing is redefining the tools between print and digital,
still image and video, passive and interactive”
Report gives examples of innovative uses e.g. ANU Press, established
in 2003 to explore & enable new modes of scholarly publishing.
“the way we think about software itself is changing, and whole industries
are adjusting to a new world in which sophisticated but simple tools
routinely sell for 99 cents or are completely free”
TechnologyTrends

20. What’s Missing?
Let’s use the Delphi process (abbreviated version!):
• What significant learning technology trends do you
feel will have an impact in the short term (< 1 year)
• Tweet (or shout) your ideas!
• Session chair will record ideas
This is an example of crowd-sourcing ideas from a group
of experts
20
Vote on two ideas which you feel are most important:
• Area 1
• Area 2
This is an example of how crowd-sourced ideas can be
refined and prioritised
TechnologyTrends
hashtag: #membersday17

21. Medium-Term Drivers
What trends driving technology adoption in the medium
term (3-5 years?) did the NMC Horizon panel identify?
21
Trends are sorted into three movement-related
categories: (1) fast-moving trends that will realize their
impact in the next 1-2 years and two categories of
slower-moving trends that will realize their impact within
(2) 3-5 or (3) 5+ years.
After summarising technologies important in short-term,
lets look at medium-term drivers of technology adoption
TechnologyDrivers

22. Medium-Term Drivers
Two drivers of technology adoption in medium term (3-5
years to adoption) were identified and prioritised:
22
“Once limited to print-based journals and monographic series, scholarly
communications now reside in networked environments and can be
accessed through an expansive array of publishing platforms”.
“Academic & research libraries are gradually embracing the movement
toward openness as the Internet has opened the floodgates of
information and scientific knowledge”.
TechnologyDrivers

23. What’s Missing?
Let’s use the Delphi process:
• What significant drivers of learning technology
adoption do you feel will have an impact in the
medium term (3-5 years)
• Tweet (or shout) your ideas!
• Session chair will record ideas
This is a further example of crowd-sourcing ideas from a
group of experts
23
Vote on two ideas which you feel are most important:
• Area 1
• Area 2
This is a further example of how crowd-sourced ideas can
be refined based on your experiences
TechnologyDrivers
hashtag: #membersday17

24. The Challenges
What challenges impeding technology adoption in
academic and research libraries did the NMC Horizon
panel identify?
24
These were classed as:
• Solvable Challenges: those that we
understand and know how to solve
• Difficult Challenges: Those that
we understand but for which
solutions are elusive
• Wicked Challenges: Those that are
complex to even define, much less
address
TheChallenges

25. The Challenges
Two difficult challenges were identified:
25
“It is important for these new digital data sets to be preserved alongside
the research derived from them for future use and in longitudinal
studies, but this presents a perpetual challenge for library acquisition
and archiving practices as formats continue to evolve”.
“.. advents in Internet technology are fostering changes in patron
behavior, challenging libraries to either participate in the online
knowledge exchange or risk becoming obsolete over time. ”.
TheChallenges

26. What’s Missing?
Let’s use the Delphi process:
• What:
 Solvable  Difficult  Wicked
challenges are missing?
• Tweet (or shout) your ideas!
• Session chair will record ideas
26
Choose one idea per category:
• Solvable
• Difficult
• Wicked
This is a further example of how crowd-sourced ideas can
be prioritised based on your personal/institutional context
TheChallenges
hashtag: #membersday17

27. Review
NMC Horizon report:
• Provides insights into technological trends,
driver & barriers for library
• Open methodology which caters for experts
highlighting their own particular interests
But:
• It may not be applicable to your specific
context
• It doesn’t address “What do I need to do
next?”
27
Review

28. The Full NMC Horizon Report
NMC Horizon report
for Libraries 2014:
• 50 pages
• 18 topics
 6 key trends
 6 significant
challenges
 6 important
technologies
28
2
1
3

29. Tools for Futurists
Some tools which can help you to predict the future:
• Quick surveys
• Observing recent developments
• Trip reports from conferences (cf Sarah Purcell)
Not covered in talk (ideas for reinterpreting the present
and providing fresh insights):
• The History Of The Web Backwards, UK Web
Focus blog, 19 Nov 2007
• Reversible, Reverse History and Side-by-Side
Storytelling, OUseful blog, 22 March 2010
29
Tools

30. The Future Is Already Here!
Hands up if you have:
Used a mobile device for work-related purposes in bed
Options: Yes, No or I’m indecisive!
30
“20% of the iPad users spent time with their iPad in bed” 2010
Informal survey
(Twitter & blog post),
March 2012
“The future is already
here - it's just not very
evenly distributed”
What are the implications
of this ‘platform’?
Tools

31. Trip Reports
• What topics are covered at conferences
• What topics interested my peers
31
Tools
Our favourite sessions
Louise Drumm, from Glasgow Caledonian
University, presented ‘Connections between
theory and practice: rhizomatic teaching with
digital technologies’ where she discussed the …
findings of a doctoral research project which
asked the question ‘what role does theory play in
university teaching with digital technologies?’
Andrew Raistrick and Steven Bentley, from the
University of Huddersfield, discussed their new
approach to staff development courses in ‘Flipping
heck! Be careful what you wish for‘.
Manchester Metropolitan University’s presentation,
‘An experiment in open-access, micro-learning for
educational technology training’ gave an
interesting look at how they are engaging
academic colleagues in technology enhanced
learning training.
https://ilead.cumbria.ac.uk/

32. What Did You Notice Recently?
“What did you notice for the first time today (recently)?”
• Can be important for trend spotting
• May signify that something is becoming mainstream
that you hadn’t appreciated before (WiFi on bus, …)
32
Amazon locker (Feb 2013)
Video on underground
(Dec 2008)
Tools
Thanks to
Tony Hirst
View slides & abstract at
http://bitly.com/cilipwm17-kelly
Tweet comments with #MembersDay17

33. Action Brief Statement
Technology Will Not Defeat Us: Next Steps
Having identified future developments of relevance to
the organisation, you will now need to convince senior
management of the potential.
From the Hyperlinked Library MOOC
Planning template from assignment 2:
Action Brief Statement:
Convince ______ that by _______ they will ________
which
will ________ because _______.
33Acknowledgements to Michael Stephens and Kyle Jones
This tool was used in a number of Planning for Future workshops
(with voting and prizes)
Planning

34. Risks
The Need to Explicitly Address Risks
From “Risks and Opportunities Framework for
Exploiting the Social Web” by Kelly & Oppenheim:
• Summarise risks
• Summary risks of not adopting
technology
• Summarise strategies for minimising
(or accepting) risks
• Evidence base
• Document biases and prejudices
34
Can you innovate without taking risks?
Planning

35. Warning From The Past
Tim Berners-Lee didn’t
let evidence of the
popularity of Gopher
hinder development of
the Web
35
In 1993 Gopher was the
safe bet for an important
technological innovation

36. The Serenity Prayer
• The Serenity Prayer
36Serenity Prayer

37. Scenario Planning for Addressing the
Unexpected
37
Commercialisation
Devolved ownership
The niche librarian
Everyone’s an IT
expert
Possible scenarios
for libraries and the
Cloud
Steady as she goes
Outline challenges and opportunities for libraries
based on an expanded version of these scenarios)
Everyone’s a
librarian
Planning

38. Acknowledge & Engage With
Challenges
Need to acknowledge unpleasant truth and engage with
realities:
• Trump  Brexit
• Post-truth  Privacy
• Commercialisation (commercial providers of HE)
• Aging work force  ….
38
Planning
Difficult Challenges:
• Truth, trust, advocacy
• Existential challenges
• ‘Librarian’ brand
Thinking the Unthinkable
When does ‘engage’ mean
‘challenge’ and when ’accept’?

39. Do it For Yourself
Do it for yourself!
• Slides, exercises, etc. for half-day workshop
available under a Creative Commons licence
39
Workshop held at SAOIM 2014 (South Africa) & ELAG 2014 (Bath) conferences.
See:
• http://ukwebfocus.com/events/saoim-2014-lets-predict-the-future-workshop/
• http://ukwebfocus.com/events/elag-2014-preparing-for-the-future-workshop/
As described
Institutional planning
Planning

40. Further Reading
NMC Horizon
Reports:
• Libraries 2017
Wiki (report in
March 2017)
• Higher Education
2017 (Preview)
• Higher Education
2016
• Libraries 2015
40
TEF? TEF+Libraries

41. Conclusions
We have:
• Seen examples of technology trends, drivers &
challenges as agreed by NMC Library panel
• Learnt about the NMC’s Delphi processes
• Contributed our perspectives
• Voted on the ideas provided
• Heard about follow-up approaches
Next steps:
• Read the NMC Horizon Report and use it to
inform planning processes
• Implement an institutional event to help prepare
your organisation for the future (run it annually?)
• Invite an independent consultant to facilitate  41

42. Questions?
42