11. Quantifying Country Risk 30% 70% Overall Country Risk Rating Political Risk Rating Transfer Risk Rating Political Factors Political factor A Political factor B Political factor C Financial Factors Financial factor A Financial factor B Financial factor C Weights 30% 50 20 Weights 30% 40 30
34. International Country Risk Guide: RCI Composite Political, Financial and Economic Risk Rating with weighted average Coup d’état FORECAST
35. OECD Credit rating 1997 Knaepen Package= convergence on the pricing of officially supported medium and long term export credits. One of the key elements of the Knaepen Package is a system for assessing country credit risk and classification of the countries into 7 categories . The Country Risk Classification Method measures the country credit risk, i.e. the likelihood that a country will service its external debt. The Country Risk Classification Method uses an econometric model based on quantitative indicators, e.g. the financial and the economic situation and the payment experience of the countries and takes account of possible qualitative factors, e.g. political and other economic and financial factors not included in the quantitative Econometric Model. The details of the Country Risk Assessment Model are confidential and not published. http://www.oecd.org/document/49/0,2340,fr_2649_34169_1901105_1_1_1_1,00.html
36. OECD Credit rating The final classification, based only on valid country risk elements, is a consensus decision of the sub-Group of Country Risk Experts that involves the country risk experts of the Participating Export Credit Agencies. The sub-Group of Country Risk Experts meets several times a year. These meetings are organized so as to guarantee that every country is reviewed each time a fundamental change is noticed and at least once a year. The meetings are confidential and no official reports of the deliberations are made. 8 country risk categories from 0 (no risk) to 7 (high risk)
37. OECD Country risk classification in 2008 USA UK Belgium Canada France Greece Austria 0 Gabon RCI Guatemala Mexico Bulgaria Kuwait Mexico Malaysia Argentina Vietnam Thailand Russia Romania Trinidad & Tobago Cameroon Niger Nigeria Pakistan Philippines Indonesia Brazil Peru Panama South Africa Hungary Poland HongKong Bolivia Haiti Cambodia Albania Israel Algeria Morocco Chile China Czech Rep 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
48. The 9 pillars of global competitiverness Hard + Soft DATA : Public debt + REER + interest rates + inflation + savings rate + legal and Regulatory framework + infrastructure + Education system and management schools….
65. Fraser Institute’s Index of Economic Freedom Source: http://www.fraserinstitute.ca/shared/readmore.asp?sNav=pb&id=852
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67. UNDP – HDI 177. Niger 176. Sierra Leone 175. Mali 174. Burkina Faso 173. Guinea-Bissau 172. Central African Republic 171. Chad 170. Ethiopia 169. Burundi 168. Mozambique 167. Congo, Dem. Rep. of the 166. Malawi 165. Zambia 164. Côte d'Ivoire 163. Benin 162. Tanzania, U. Rep. of 161. Angola 160. Guinea 159. Nigeria 158. Rwanda 157. Eritrea 156. Senegal 155. Gambia 154. Haiti 20. New Zealand 19. Spain 18. United Kingdom 17. Italy 16. France 15. Denmark 14. Austria 13. Belgium 12. Luxembourg 11. Finland 10. Netherlands 9. Switzerland 8. United States 7. Japan 6. Canada 5. Sweden 4. Ireland 3. Australia 2. Iceland 1. Norway
68. HDI- Life Expectancy 1970-2005 79.0 71.7 New Zealand 79.5 72.9 Spain 78.3 72.0 United Kingdom 80.0 72.1 Italy 79.4 72.4 France 77.1 73.6 Denmark 78.9 70.6 Austria 78.8 71.4 Belgium 78.4 70.7 Luxembourg 78.4 70.7 Finland 78.3 74.0 Netherlands 80.5 73.8 Switzerland 77.3 71.5 United States 81.9 73.3 Japan 79.9 73.2 Canada 80.1 74.7 Sweden 77.7 71.3 Ireland 80.2 71.7 Australia 80.6 74.3 Iceland 79.3 74.4 Norway 2000-05 1970-75
69. HDI- Life Expectancy 1970-2005 44.3 38.4 Niger 40.6 35.4 Sierra Leone 47.8 38.0 Mali 47.4 43.8 Burkina Faso 44.6 36.5 Guinea-Bissau 39.4 43.5 Central African Republic 43.6 40.6 Chad 47.6 43.5 Ethiopia 43.5 44.1 Burundi 41.9 40.7 Mozambique 43.1 46.0 Congo, Dem. Rep. of the 39.6 41.8 Malawi 37.4 50.2 Zambia 46.0 49.8 Côte d'Ivoire 53.8 47.0 Benin 46.0 49.5 Tanzania, U. Rep. of 40.7 37.9 Angola 53.6 39.3 Guinea 43.3 42.8 Nigeria 43.6 44.6 Rwanda 53.5 44.3 Eritrea 55.6 40.1 Senegal 2000-05 1970-75
70. COUNTRIES X & Y: A multi-index composite graph
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75. Nord Sud Export: export country risk From 1 to 160 Dangerous risk 1 From 161 to 270 Very high risk 2 From 271 to 320 High risk 3 From 321 to 380 Rather high risk 4 From 381 to 430 Moderate risk 5 From 431 to 540 Low risk 6 From 541 to 700 Very low risk (eg: OCDE) 7 rate Type of risk Risk classes
76. Nord Sud Export: investment country risk 30% 20% Business environment (15 criteria) 30% 10% Political risks (15 criteria) 30% 40% Market risks (15 criteria) 10% 30% Sovereign risks (15 criteria) Investments Export
79. The Institute for Management Development’s World Competitiveness Report analyses 49 industrialized and emerging economies around the world based on a far-reaching survey since 1989. Its analysis of the institutional framework addresses issues such as state efficiency, transparency of government policy, public service’s independence from political interference, bureaucracy as well as bribery and corruption. www.imd.ch PricewaterhouseCoopers’s Opacity Index measures the lack of clear, accurate, formal and widely accepted practices in a country’s business environment. As such, it focuses on the relative state of corrupt business practices, the transparence of the legal system and the quality of the regulatory framework. It measures the resulting extra risk premium that stems from additional business and economic costs. www.opacityindex.com/ Heritage Foundation established since 1985, in partnership with the WSJ, an economic freedom index for some 160 countries, both industrialized and developing. The ranking is based on ten socio-political and economic criteria, including political stability, state interference, investment codes, regulatory framework, institutional strength, and corruption scope. www.heritage.org
80. Political and Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC) specializes in strategic business information and analysis in East and Southeast Asia, with emphasis on corruption and business costs. Annual risk reports survey over 1,000 senior expatriates living in to obtain their perceptions of corruption, labor quality, intellectual property rights risks and other systemic shortcomings. www.asiarisk.com The Political and Economic Stability Index of Lehman Brothers and Eurasia measures relative stability in around 20 EMCs by integrating political science theories with financial markets developments. The monthly evaluation uses both quantitative and qualitative criteria, including institutional efficiency, political legitimacy, economic performance, and government effectiveness. www.legsi.com Freedom House since 1972 monitors the progress and decline of political rights and civil liberties in 192 countries. FH publishes an annual survey of the Progress of Freedom in the world. The ranking is based on a wide survey of regional experts, consultants, and human rights specialists. Political stability and civil liberties are ranked on a scale of 1 (best) to 7 (worst). www.freedomhouse.org/ratings/index.htm
81. WORLD BANK: Given its unique policy dialogue with more than 180 countries, the Bank has developed a comprehensive database of composite governance indicators, measuring perceptions of voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and corruption. www.worldbank.org/wbi/governance / Political Risk Service’s risk analyses cover a hundred countries and are updated on a quarterly basis. International Country Risk Guide measures and tracks corruption perception in government, law and order, expropriation risk, as well as the quality of bureaucracy. These measures stem from the subjective assessment of experts around the world. http:// www.prsgroup.com Business Environment Risk Intelligence (BERI) provides a Political Risk Index assessing the social and political environment of a country. It is built on the opinion and scores provided by a hundred experts with a diplomatic or political science background. Governance quality is included into political risk analysis along with government effectiveness and social indicators. http:// www.beri.com
82. Standard and Poor’s rating approach is both quantitative and qualitative. It is based on a checklist of 10 categories, including governance and political risk. The political risk factors gauge the impact of politics on economic conditions, as well as the quality of governance and the degree of government support in the population. S&P assigns short term and long-term ratings. http:// www.standardandpoors.com To look upon governance and corruption, Moody’s takes into consideration the structures of social interaction, social and political dynamics, as well as the economic fundamentals. Moody’s relies on the judgment of a group of credit risk professionals to weigh the various risk factors as well as the impact of each of these factors upon business prospects. http://www.moodys.com The London-based Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) provides a comprehensive é-year forecasting country risk analysis on some 100 EMCs., on a quarterly basis. The EIU method flows from expert’s answers to a series of 77 predetermined qualitative and quantitative questions. http:// www.eiu.com
83. Transparency International , a non-profit non-governmental organization in Berlin, provides an annual survey of corruption practices in nearly 90 countries since 1995. The Corruption Perception Index is based on a wide network of information sources with local NGOs, domestic and foreign corporations, investors, and business contacts. www.transparency.org Institutional Investor ’s ratings are published twice a year since 1979 to assess the creditworthiness of about 150 countries, based on a survey of some 100 international bankers’ perception of creditworthiness, including economic, financial and socio-political stability criteria. The resulting score scales from zero (very high chance of default) to 100 (least chance of default). www.institutionalinvestor.com Euromoney publishes ratings of some 180 countries since 1982 on a semi-annual basis. The methodology is built from a blend of quantitative criteria and qualitative factors coming from surveys with about 40 political analysts and economists. Political risk receives a 25% weighting, as much as economic performance. Countries are graded on scale from 0 (worst) to 100 ( best). www.euromoney.com
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