Climate Change talk delivered to Bainbridge Graduate Institute on the 40th Anniversary of Earth Day by Dr. Richard Gammon

1. Global Warming Is “Unequivocal” R H Gammon University of Washington Bainbridge Graduate Institute 4/22/10

4. How can public understanding and support be fading even as the climate change science grows ever more certain? The Problem:

5. Remember: Earth is alive (NASA/satellite composite)

6. Some known tipping points in the Earth System. Arctic ice tipping point already passed?

7. Recent updates (2009) on climate change science have only strengthened IPCC ‘07 conclusions and urgency of response

10. Public understanding of the climate threat is eroding Gallup

11. Gallup Poll 3/10 A growing partisan divide

15. Extreme weather events are increasing, just as climate models had predicted (IPCC ‘07)

16. East coast snowstorms (Jan-Feb, 2010) don’t disprove global climate change predictions, but rather confirm them.

17. e Combining key climate change indices

18. Note the steady rise toward a less stable climate

19. NASA/GISS Note: 2005 warmest, (2009,2007,1998) tied for 2nd warmest

20. 2008 was colder in the USA (~1.5% global area), but…

21. … the world was still warming in 2008 Global temperature anomaly 2008 (NASA/GISS)

22. The most recent decade has been the warmest on record

23. The warming trend continues (2000-2010) ----> Decadal average global surface temperature *

25. Professor Mann’s hockey stick has been confirmed by many other studies

26. A new (independent) ‘hockey stick’: Arctic temperature trends for the past 2000 years (Kaufman et al, Science, Sept ‘09)

27. Past and possible future global temperatures (IPCC ‘07)

28. Projected precipitation changes by 2100 (IPCC ‘07): Subtropical droughts, but high-latitude precipitation (rain) JJA

29. Sun: small, regular (11-yr cycle) modulation of global temperature

30. Major factors: (natural) solar variability, volcanoes, ENSO (human) greenhouse gases

31. Combining all factors, fitting the record and ‘predicting’ to 2030 (Lean et al , GRL 2009)

32. Quiet sun (2009) Next solar max (modest) predicted for 2013, record warming coming?

33. Nov ‘09 Nov ‘08 La Nina cooled ‘08/’09 El Nino warms ‘09/’10

34. Measured increase in greenhouse heat stored in the upper ocean Most excess heat goes into the ocean, not the land or the atmosphere

35. Increasing atmospheric CO 2 at Mauna Loa (Hawaii) Combustion of coal, oil, natural gas, tropical forests ~390 ppm in 2010

36. Rapid increase in greenhouse gas concentrations since 1900, relative to the previous 10,000 yrs (IPCC ‘07)

37. Other greenhouse gases contribute ~30% additional warming

38. Worrisome recent increase in atmospheric methane ?

39. Measured recent release of CH 4 from Russian boreal peat bogs and continental shelf… (+) climate feedback?

40. Arctic sea-ice extent Sept ‘09 The NW passage is now open for business.

41. Multi-year sea ice rapidly disappearing

42. Arctic sea-ice extent declining rapidly

43. Observed rate of ice loss faster than any model prediction

44. Rapid and increasing loss of Greenland ice

45. Antarctica is also warming and losing ice, especially West Antarctica

46. Observed sea-level rising faster than model predictions

47. Possible sea-level rise by 2100 of 3 to 6 feet

48. Sea-level predicted to rise by 10 feet or more by 2300

49. Loss of coastal US land for sea-level rise of 20 feet.

50. New Orleans now Possible by 2050 (Rising sea-level, eroding delta)

51. A 5-ft sea-level rise would remake San Francisco Bay, inundating Both SFO and Oakland airports

52. A high estimate (4 ft) for Puget Sound by 2100

53. Impact of sea-level rise in Puget Sound

54. “Copenhagen Accord” reached in the final hours of COP-15 (Jan 2010)

55. Global use of fossil fuels is exceeding all earlier predictions

56. China has passed the USA in country emissions, but not in per capita emissions

57. China leads the world in production of solar, and wind.

58. Estimated global CO 2 emission reduction pathways needed to have 67% probability of holding global warming below 2 o C (WBGU, 2009)

59. Has the US turned the corner on CO2 emissions? ? Emission map

61. Where we have to go. Will we do this at all? Will we do this in time?

62. Possible corporate responses to the challenge and opportunity of climate change

66. What You Can Do * Learn about climate change, convince others of the challenge * Urge your leaders to pass strong climate mitigation laws * Support clean, renewable energy * Replace incandescent light-bulbs with cfls * Save energy and water at home * Buy energy-efficient appliances * Plant a tree, protect a forest * Recycle, reuse, rethink (don’t waste anything) * Support better public transportation, walk, ride a bike. * Drive green (take your foot off the gas!), consider a Prius “ Start by doing what’s necessary, then do what’s possible, and soon you will be doing the impossible…” St Francis of Assisi