Forecasting commercial services from IrSOLaV - Luis Martin (IRSOLAV)

1. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat

2. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat
 IrSOLaV company profile
 Methodology
 IrSOLaV products and activities
 IrSOLaV data time series and reports
 IrSOLaV maps
 IrSOLaV data services
 IrSOLaV plant performance
 IrSOLaV short term forecasting
 IrSOLaV nowcasting
 Research and Development
 IrSOLaV partnership

3. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat
 IrSOLaV is a spin-off company founded in 2007.
Initially formed by researchers with broad
experience in Solar Energy and solar radiation
knowledge.
 Methodology for solar radiation derived from
satellite information.
 Consulting services on solar resource
characterization and prediction.
 Involved into several relevant R&D initiatives: Task
46 of IEA/SHC, COST action on solar radiation and
wind forecast.

4. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat
 IrSOLaV have participated as INDEPENDENT
consultant and data provider in more than 3.4GW
of PV and CSP solar energy projects.
 IrSOLaV customers are governments, main
financial institutions, project developers and plant
operators in 4 continents.
 IrSOLaV is currently headquartered in Madrid with
offices in Santiago de Chile, New Delhi and soon in
China.

5. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat
HEAD OFFICE
Adress: Calle Santiago Grisolia 2 (PTM) Tres Cantos -
28760 - Madrid - Spain
IRSOLAV-ACIRA SOLAR INDIA
Adress: 63 Daryagani New Delhi 110002 - India
IRSOLAV-WE CONSULTING CHILE
Adress: Estoril 120 Oficina 809, Las Condes, Santiago -
Chile

6. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat
Inputs to algorithm for prediction and estimation solar
radiation from satellite images are:
 ESRA, SOLIS, REST2 clear sky models.
 DirIndex to obtain DNI from GHI.
 Global Forecast System and MACC global models.
 Information about atmospheric constituents.
AOD and other components from several
satellites and models: MODIS, MISR, MACC,
AERONET and NCEP.
 Cloud information from geostationary satellite

7. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat
 MPG 1994-2005 and MSG 2006 to the present.
EUROPE, AFRICA and MIDDLE EAST.
 MPG: 5x5km2 spatial and 30 minutes
temporal resolution.
 MSG: 1x1km2 spatial and 15 minutes
temporal resolution.

8. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat
 MPG 1999 to the present covering MIDDLE EAST
and ASIA.
 MPG: 5x5km2 spatial and 30 minutes
temporal resolution.

9. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat
 GOES 1999 to 2013 covering NORHT, CENTRAL
and SOUTH AMERICA
 GOES: 1x1km2 spatial and 30 minutes
temporal resolution.

10. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat
 MTSAT 2012 to the present covering EAST ASIA
AND PACIFIC
 MPG: 1x1km2 spatial and 30 minutes
temporal resolution.

11. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat
 Time series of solar irradiance (GHI and DNI)
from satellite images covering all the planet.
 Solar resource analysis reports with statistical
study for the long term.
 Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) of solar
radiation components and meteorological
variables.
 Consulting services on measuring solar radiation
and quality reports of solar radiation measured
on ground stations.

12. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat

13. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat

14. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat

15. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat

16. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat
Monitoring performance
of PV plants and radiometric
measurements
VirtualPIR, ftp,
email, database
IrSOLaV
near-realtime
Satellite Images
Processing

17. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat

18. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat
 Analyis of energy production of the plant using
SAM, TRSYS (STEC-library), etc..
 Report on energy generation with long term
analysis (probabilities P50, P70, P90)

19. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat
NWP global model
GFS NCEP model.
3 hours temporal resolution
0.5º spatial resolution
Statistical post-
processing
(Downscaling)
Site local predictions
Temporal interpolation with
clear sky model to obtain
GHI
DirIndex Model to obtain
DNI from GHI
MACC ECMWF model.
AOD and WV predictions
1 hourly predictions

20. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat
 Predictions of hourly solar radiation with a
temporal horizon of 72 hours.
 Predictions are done 4 times per day at:
 00:00 UTC
 06:00 UTC
 12:00 UTC
 18:00 UTC
 Reliability of more than 99%.
 Delivered by FTP, mail or accessible in our
web portal www.solarexplorer.info

21. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat
Block
matching
algorithm
Cloud index to Solar Radiation
MACC ECMWF model. AOD and WV 1 hourly
DirIndex Model to obtain DNI from GHI
Forecast cloud index

22. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat
 Predictions of 15-60 minutes solar radiation
with a temporal horizon of 6 hours.
 Spatial resolution 1 km.
 Predictions are updated every hour.
 Delivered by FTP, mail or accessible in our web
portal www.solarexplorer.info

23. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat
Task 46 of Solar Heating and Cooling (IEA). 2011-2015
Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting
Activity C.1: Short-term forecasting (up to 7 days ahead)
Activity C.2: Integration of solar forecasts into operations
COST Action WIRE 1002
Benchmarking of PV predictions
DNICast 7th Framework Programme

24. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat
 Global Forecasters: spin-off from CIEMAT. Wind energy
services.
 Geonica: provision and installation of meteorological
stations to measure solar radiation.

25. Applications of Solar Radiation Forecasting, 11 June 2013
Ciemat
Web: www.irsolav.com
E-mail: info@irsolav.com
IrSOLaV, S.L. c/ Santiago Grisolía, 2
Parque Científico de Madrid
28760 Tres Cantos, Madrid
Tfno. +34 911263612 / +34 677740918