1. Everything I need to
know I learned in
NCED*
*or NPR**
**or random other places

2. Roadmap
• Breaking the fourth wall
• Sustainable energy and the environment:
ecologic metrics and valuation
• Coda: towards a new method of funding
river restoration science
• Pico coda (maybe!): harnessing the wisdom
of crowds for environmental solutions

7. Synthesis

9. We can build him better than before...

11. Sustainable Systems

12. Sustainable Systems

13. Sustainable Systems
• Initial environmental cost
• Ongoing environmental costs

14. • Initial environmental cost
• Ongoing environmental costs

15. Energy
Sustainable Limited

16. Energy
Sustainable Limited
“Physics” “Fuel”

17. Energy
Sustainable Limited
“Physics” “Fuel”
• Hydro • Fossil
• Wind • Fission (“Nuclear”)
• Solar • Fusion
• Tidal
• Geothermal
• Biofuel

18. Economics
Primer
Distribution of scarce
resources to maximize...
(?)

19. Economics
Primer
Distribution of scarce
resources to maximize...
(?)
Profit!

20. Economics
Primer
Distribution of scarce
resources to maximize...
(?)
“Quality of Life”

21. Economics
Primer
Distribution of scarce
resources to maximize...
(?)
“Quality of Life” Index
What do people value?

22. Environmental Valuation

23. Value of a healthy
ecosystem?

24. Hold on...

25. “Healthy Ecosystem?!?”

26. Angelo Coast Range Reserve

28. (not)
Angelo Coast Range Reserve

29. What to measure?
Inputs vs. Outputs

30. What to measure?
Inputs vs. Outputs
Outputs: biodiversity, biomass

31. Slaughterhouse Inspection
Temple Grandin
WinardPhoto: © Rosalie Winard
We are measuring inputs

32. We should be measuring outputs:
pass
Pauline,
President Taft’s pet cow fail

33. (oh what a tangled web we weave)
Great Lakes Food Web

34. Outputs:
high spatial / temporal variability
...trophic level change
...cohorts

35. River Restoration:
A Heuristic Approach
Lake County, IL restoration project

36. ... spatial and temporal variability

37. Measure inputs, not
outputs!
• variability:
spacial, temporal
• baseline:
statistical
equilibrium

38. Metrics we like:
• Fast, easy, and/or cheap to measure
• Broadly comparable
• Useful(!)

39. Spatial Metrics
(variability)
• Physical substrate aka “houses”
• Microclimate: PAR, T, soil moisture, slope...
• Ecological patchiness: LiDAR canopy vs.
bare earth returns

40. Nutrient Metrics
(movement)
• Keystone species?
• Nutrient sensor network: pattern(s)?
• Native vs. non-native vegetation

41. • Keystone species?
• Nutrient sensor network: pattern(s)?
• Native vs. non-native vegetation

42. • Nutrient sensor network: pattern(s)?

43. • Native vs. non-native vegetation
Non-native == black hole...

44. Temporal Metrics
(variability)
• ??? metrics
• We need cohorts
• We need statistical steady-state... baseline?

45. Environmental Valuation

46. Public values?
• more “pristine”
• better recreation
• more “production”
• more unique (Endangered Species Act)

47. Scientific Values -
within system
• spatial and temporal variability (diversity)
• nutrient utilization (biomass)

48. Scientific Values -
between systems
• biomes
• adjoining land (migration, genetic exchange)
• refugia

49. Sustainable energy vs. ecological health:
scarce resource distribution...
Distribution of scarce
resources to maximize...
Energy
Ecologic Health

50. Systems
Human Natural
Statistical
Steady-state Steady-state

51. Systems
Human Natural
Low variability Variability
necessary

52. Scarce resources...
• Gravel
• Hydraulic Power

53. resource distribution
Rather than maximizing energy generation:
need to balance physical, nutrient, and energy inputs into
the ecosystem.

54. vs.
Clockwork
Chaos

55. Energy generation:
introduce spatial and
temporal variability
“sacrifice” maximum energy productivity
in exchange for more resources to environment

56. “sacrifice” maximum energy productivity
in exchange for more resources to environment
Challenge: still generate “enough” energy
• evaluate: smaller footprint with higher
energy productivity, or larger footprint with
lower energy productivity?
• or: smaller footprint with lower energy
productivity, plus alternative energy system?

57. Food for Thought
(MIT Library System)

58. Chaos
Clockwork
vs.
Could introducing “statistical steady-state”
ever increase energy production?!?

59. Food for Thought
(MIT Library System)

60. Baseline migration
in statistical steady-state...
Theory:
Ecological change != environmental degradation

61. Theory:
Ecological change != environmental degradation
Wild rice ==> Duckweed...
Ecological or
Social Problem?