The World in 2033 and 2064 According to Futurists

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direção
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The
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in
2033

and
in
2064

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A
INOVA
CONSULTING
é
uma
empresa
global,

com
matriz
no
Brasil
e
presença
na
Europa
e

EUA,
que
atua
na
consultoria
e
treinamento

de
futuro,
tendências,
inovação
e

planejamento
estratégico
para
a
gestão.

Através
do
conhecimento
dos
cenários,
das

megatendências,
das
tendências

comportamentais,
das
tendências
de
negócio

e
dos
best
prac*ces
de
mercado,
produzem-‐se

Insights
aplicáveis
aos
negócios,
com
dna

inovador
e
forte
orientação
ao
futuro.

A
INOVA
CONSULTING
possui
experiência
de

consultoria
e
treinamento
de
futuro,

tendências,
inovação
e
planejamento

estratégico
para
as
seguintes
áreas
de

negócio:
hotelaria,
turismo,
jóias,
tecnologia,

ensino,
varejo
e
ponto
de
venda,

telecomunicações,
ó[ca,
banco,
fitness,

financeira,
seguros,
indústria,
construção,

conteúdos,
comunicação,
e-‐commerce,

tecnologia,
automóvel,
bens
de
consumo,

combus]veis
e
lubrificantes,
saúde
e
bem

estar,
farmacêu[ca,
transportes,
alimentação

e
bebidas,
TV
a
cabo,
conteúdos,
mídia,

entretenimento.

Para
mais
informações
visite

www.inovaconsul[ng.com

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direção
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The
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in
2033

and
in
2064

The
World
in
2033
and
in
2064

4
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The
World
In
2033:
Big
Thinkers
And
Futurists

Share
Their
Thoughts

hbp://www.forbes.com/sites/sap/2013/02/08/
the-‐world-‐in-‐2033-‐big-‐thinkers-‐and-‐futurists-‐
share-‐their-‐thoughts/

Put
yourself
back
in
1993.
Could
you
have

predicted
the
success
of
the
web,
tablets
and

smartphones,
priva[zed
space
travel,
the
rise
of

terrorism,
or
the
myriad
of
small
changes
that

impact
how
you
live
today?
To
do
that
going

forward
and
to
predict
our
world
in
2033,
you

need
the
voices
of
the
smartest
minds
on
the

planet
to
spot
trends
in
their
areas
of
discipline

and
give
us
insight
into
where
we
are
heading.

Interviewed,
and
quoted
directly
for
this
piece

are
just
such
a
group
of
visionaries,
leaders,
and

big
thinkers
like:

•  Ray
Kurzweil
on
Technology

•  Robert
Kaplan
on
Global
Conflict

•  Khan
Academy
on
Educa[on

•  Virgin
GalacHc
on
Space
Travel

•  Oliver
Bussmann
on
The
Global
Workforce

•  John
Allen
on
Religion

•  Dr.
Gene
Robinson
on
Global
Climate,
and

•  Bonus
insights
from
an
aspiring
leader

Whether
you
just
read
your
favorite
author,

research
your
area
of
interest,
download

the
supplemental
deck,
or
view
them
all

together,
you
will
see
that
these
visionaries

agree
on
two
things:
there
will
be
change
–

some[me
drama[c
change
–
in
our
future,
and

there
is

.
.
.
hope.

On
Technology:
Ray
Kurzweil

“20
years
from
now,
biotechnology
–

reprogramming
biology
as
an
informa*on

process
–
will
be
in
a
mature
phase.

We
will

rou[nely
turn
off
genes
that
promote
disease

and
aging
such
as
the
fat
insulin
receptor
gene

that
tells
the
fat
cells
to
hold
onto
excess
fat.

We
will
be
able
to
add
genes
that
protect
us

from
diseases
such
as
cancer
and
heart
disease.

Major
killers
such
as
these
will
be
under
control.

We
will
be
growing
new
organs
from
stem
cells

that
are
created
from
our
own
skin
cells.

We
will

be
able
to
rejuvenate
our
organs
in
place
by

gradually
replacing
aging
cells
that
contain

gene[c
errors
and
short
telomeres
with
cells

containing
our
own
DNA
but
without
errors
and

with
extended
telomeres.

Overall
we
will
be

adding
more
than
a
year
every
year
to
your
own

remaining
life
expectancy,
which
will
represent
a

turning
point
in
life
extension.

We
will
be
online
all
the
[me
in
virtual
/

augmented
reality.

We
won’t
be
looking
at

devices
such
as
tablets
and
phones.

Rather,

computer
displays
will
be
fully
integrated
with

real
reality.

Three-‐dimensional
pop
ups
in
your

visual
field
of
view
will
give
background

informa[on
about
the
people
you
see,
even
a
[p

that
someone
just
smiled
at
you
while
you

weren’t
looking.

The
virtual
display
can
fully

replace
your
real
field
of
view
puqng
you
into
a

totally
convincing
fully
immersive
virtual

environment.

In
these
virtual
environments,
you

can
be
a
different
person
with
a
different
body

for
each
occasion.

The
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in
2033
and
in
2064

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INOVA
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Your
interac[ons
with
the
realis[c
virtual

projec[ons
of
other
people
will
also
be

completely
convincing.
Search
engines
won’t

wait
for
you
to
ask
for
informa[on.

They
will

know
you
like
a
friend
and
will
be
aware
of
your

concerns
and
interests
at
a
detailed
level.

So
it

will
pop
up
periodically
and
offer
something
like

“You’ve
expressed
concern
about
Vitamin
B12

geqng
into
your
cells,
here’s
new
research
from

four
seconds
ago
that
provides
a
new
approach

to
doing
that.”

You’ll
be
able
to
talk
things
over

with
your
computer,
clarifying
your
needs
and

requests
just
like
you’re
talking
with
a
human

assistant.

Ar[ficially
intelligent
en[[es
will
be
opera[ng
at

human
levels
meaning
they
will
have
the
same

ability
to
get
the
joke,
to
be
funny,
to
be
sexy,
to

be
roman[c.

However,
the
primary
applica[on

of
this
technology
will
be
to
improve
our
own

ability
to
do
these
things.”

Raymond
“Ray”
Kurzweil
is
an
American
author,

inventor,
futurist,
and
director
of
engineering
at

Google.
For
addi*onal
insights,
go

towww.kurzweilai.net

On
Global
Conflict:
Robert
D.
Kaplan

“In
2033,
global
conflict
will
be
widespread
and

chao[c,
but
not
necessarily
more
violent.
Rather

than
the
post-‐Oboman
state
system
in
the

Middle
East
with
hard
borders
and
suffoca[ng

central
control,
there
will
be
a
series
of
weak

states
and
sectarian
and
ethnic
regions
in
tense

rela[onships
with
each
other.

For
example,
Mosul
in
Iraq
will
have
more
in

common
with
Damascus
in
Syria
than
with

Baghdad,
even
as
Aleppo
in
Syria
has
more
in

common
with
Baghdad
in
Iraq
than
with

Damascus
itself.

There
will
be
an
independent
and
decentralized

Kurdistan,
a
more
feisty
ethnic
Azeri
region
in

northwestern
Iran,
even
as
Jordan
and
the
West

Bank
meld
together.

In
China
there
will
be
an
ethnic-‐Han
island
in
the

center
and
Pacific
coast
living
in
reasonable

harmony
with
virtually
independent

Inner
Mongolia,
Muslim-‐Turkic
Uighurstan,
and

Tibet.
Chinese
Yunnan
will
be
the
capital
of

Southeast
Asia.
Africa
will
have
a
green

r e v o l u [ o n ,
w h i l e
a t
t h e
s a m e

[me
Nigeria
pulverizes
into
several
pieces.

In
short,
the
next
few
decades
will
see
the

erosion
of
central
authority
in
the
former

colonial
world,
which
will
be
somewhat
violent

at
first,
before
sebling
down
into
a
reasonable

harmony.
Geography
will
be
more
crucial
than

ever,
even
as
technology
makes
the
earth

smaller
and
more
claustrophobic.”

Robert
David
Kaplan
is
an
American
journalist,

(currently
a
Na*onal
Correspondent
for

The
Atlan*c
magazine),
chief
geopoli*cal
analyst

a t S t r a K o r ,
a n d
a u t h o r
“
The
Revenge
of
Geography.”
For
addi*onal

insights,
go
to
www.RobertDKaplan.com.

The
World
in
2033
and
in
2064

6
INOVA
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TODOS
OS
DIREITOS
RESERVADOS

On
EducaHon:
Khan
Academy

“Global
Access:
In
twenty
years,
almost

everyone
on
the
planet
will
have
access
to
the

world’s
best
educa[onal
materials.
Almost
every

subject
will
be
available
for
free
online.
A
child

in
Mongolia
would
be
able
to
learn
anything

from
Algebra
to
String
Theory
to
Greek
History.

Personalized
learning:
Students
won’t
be
forced

to
learn
in
a
“one-‐size-‐fits-‐all”
model
with

everyone
the
same
age
learning
the
same
thing

at
once.
Rather,
technology
will
allow
the
system

to
adjust
to
every
student’s
needs.
A
35-‐year
old

would
easily
be
able
to
brush
up
on

Trigonometry.
A
4th
grader
would
be
able
to

learn
Algebra.
Everyone
will
be
able
to
focus
on

their
own
needs.

Interac[ve
classrooms:
Teachers
will
spend
less

[me
lecturing,
and
much
more
[me
mentoring.

Classrooms
will
be
highly
engaging
environments

with
almost
all
[me
spent
on
valuable
human

interac[ons
(e.g.,
mentorship,
peer
tutoring)
and

more
hands-‐on,
cross-‐disciplinary,
project-‐based

learning.

Competency-‐based
creden[als:
Students
will
be

able
to
prove
what
they
know,
not
by
seat-‐[me,

but
with
competency-‐based
creden[als.
An
out-‐
of-‐work
40
year
old
would
not
need
to
go
back

to
school
and
pile
up
thousands
of
dollars
of

debt
before
employers
took
him
seriously.

Instead,
he
would
be
able
to
take
an
accoun[ng

course
online
for
free,
prove
what
he
knows,
and

get
a
job.

Shantanu
Sinha
is
President
and
COO
of
Khan

Academy,
a
not-‐for-‐profit
with
the
goal
of

changing
educa*on
for
the
bePer
by
providing
a

free
world-‐class
educa*on
for
anyone
anywhere.

F o r
a d d i * o n a l
i n s i g h t s ,
g o

towww.khanacademy.org.

On
Space
Travel:
Virgin
GalacHc

“Over
the
next
20
years,
I
believe
thousands,
and

perhaps
even
millions,
of
private
individuals
will

travel
to
space.
Since
the
dawn
of
the
space
age,

just
over
500
men
and
women
have
been
to

outer
space.
With
only
a
few
recent
excep[ons,

these
men
and
women
have
all
been

government
employees,
handpicked
by
space

agencies
such
as
NASA
and
trained
to
an

enormous
degree.
Their
missions
are
worthwhile

and
worthy
of
our
gra[tude
and
admira[on,
but

it
is
cri[cal
to
realize
that
for
the
overwhelming

majority
of
us,
government
space
programs
are

not
our
[cket
to
space.
The
challenge
of
sending

individuals
to
space
is
being
taken
up
by
private

companies,
which
have
both
tools
and
mo[ves

those
government
agencies
may
not
have.

Recently,
several
entrepreneurs
have
started

new
businesses
expressly
designed
to
tackle
this

problem.

Such
future
space
travel
won’t
be
enjoyed
only

by
adventurers.
As
we
progress
through
the

21st
century,
spaceflight
may
become
nearly
as

common
for
travelers
as
taking
a
plane
trip

became
for
millions
across
the
world
during
the

20th.

The
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in
2033
and
in
2064

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The
technology
that
permits
flights
into
space

will
also
allow
passengers
to
fly
to
far-‐flung

places
on
Earth
in
record
[me.
By
traveling
out

of
the
Earth’s
atmosphere
for
a
small
amount
of

[me,
a
non-‐stop
trip
from
New
York
to
Sydney

might
take
two
to
three
hours
instead
of
the
20-‐
hour,
mul[-‐leg
trip
required
today.
Furthermore,

I
believe
air
travel
will
be
more
environmentally

friendly.

Airlines
ferrying
passengers
on
regional

routes
will
run
small,
short-‐hop
planes
on

babery
cells.

Now
is
a
fascina[ng
[me
for
the
commercial

space
industry.
It
is
inspiring
to
see
business

leaders
from
different
sectors
applying
their
best

ideas
and
prac[ces
to
the
unique
challenges
of

spaceflight.
The
next
20
years
hold
exci[ng,

unexplored
territory
for
the
people
of
the

world.”

George
Whitesides
is
President
and
CEO
of
Virgin

G a l a c * c
w i t h
p l a n s
t o
p r o v i d e

sub-‐orbital
spaceflights
to
space
tourists,

suborbital
launches
for
space
science
missions

and
orbital
launches
of
small
satellites.

For

a d d i * o n a l
i n s i g h t s ,
g o

to
www.VirginGalac*c.com.

On
The
Global
Workforce:
Oliver
Bussmann

“Over
the
past
20
years
we
have
gone
from
the

early
stages
of
Internet
to
a
fully
connected

world.
By
2033,
a
“born-‐mobile”
workforce
will

be
constantly
connected
to
both
work
and
home

life,
using
devices
that
are
wearable
–
or
even

implantable.

Leadership
structures
will
become
increasingly

flat,
as
roles
shi}
based
on
each
individual’s

strengths
and
capabili[es.
Many
decisions
will

become
automated,
using
increasingly

sophis[cated
analy[cal
tools,
allowing
people
to

focus
on
crea[ve
endeavors
that
are
uniquely

human.”

Oliver
Bussmann
is
the
CIO
for
SAP
AG,
the

German
mul[na[onal
so}ware
corpora[on
that

makes
enterprise
so}ware
to
manage
business

opera[ons
and
customer
rela[ons.
For

addi[onal
insights,
follow
Oliver
on

Twiber
@SAPCIO
or
on
LinkedIn

On
Religion
And
The
Papacy:
John
Allen

“First,
it
will
be
increasingly
led
from
the
global

south,
where
two-‐thirds
of
the
1.1
billion

Catholics
on
the
planet
live
today,
and
where

three-‐quarters
will
be
found
by
mid-‐century.

Places
such
as
Mumbai,
Manila
and
Abuja
will
be

to
the
21st
century
what
Paris,
Leuven
and
Milan

were
to
the
16th
century
–
the
primary
centers

of
new
intellectual
imagina[on,
pastoral

leadership,
and
poli[cal
momentum.
As
that

transi[on
unfolds,
Catholicism
on
the
global

stage
will
become
increasingly
a
church
of
the

poor
and
a
church
commibed
to
the
agenda
of

the
developing
world,
meaning
economic
jus[ce,

mul[lateralism,
and
opposi[on
to
war.

Second,
Catholicism
in
the
West
will
be

increasingly
‘evangelical,’
meaning
commibed
to

defense
of
its
tradi[onal
iden[ty
in
an
ever
more

secular
milieu.

The
World
in
2033
and
in
2064

8
INOVA
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Once
upon
a
[me,
Catholicism
was
the
culture-‐
shaping
majority
in
the
West.
Today
it’s
an

embabled
subculture,
and
like
other

subcultures,
it’s
learning
to
prac[ce
a
“poli[cs
of

iden[ty”
as
an
an[dote
to
assimila[on.
In

Europe
and
North
America,
in
other
words,

Catholicism
will
not
so}en
its
role
in
the
culture

wars,
but
rather
dial
it
up.”

John
L.
Allen,
Jr.
is
an
American
journalist,
author

of
several
books,
a
senior
correspondent
for
the

N a * o n a l
C a t h o l i c

Reporter,
and
va*canologist
of
CNN
and
NPR.

For
addi*onal
insights,
go
to
his
Wikipedia
page.

On
Global
Warming:
Gene
Robinson

“Twenty
years
ago,
alarmists
were
already

predic[ng
calamitous
effects
in
the
near
future

from
a
warming
planet
due
mainly
to
petroleum

and
coal
combus[on.
The
1990
best-‐seller
Dead

Heat
painted
a
nightmarish
picture
of
our
world

in
2020-‐2030
when
the
temperature
would

average
six
or
seven
degrees
greater.
The
first

IPCC
reports
of
1990
and
1995
supported
such

scary
scenarios,
giving
them
an
aura
of
scien[fic

respectability.
What
actually
happened
is
that

the
mean
global
temperature
since
1993

increased
about
0.2
degree
C
through
2012
with

most
of
that
occurring
in
the
record
year
of

1998,
at
the
peak
of
a
thirty-‐year
warming
trend.

Since
then,
the
global
temperature
has

plateaued
with
no
clear
trend
up
or
down.

Because
the
flabening
is
at
the
high
point
of
a

warming
trend,
each
year
has
to
be
among
the

warmest
recorded
years,
as
the
media
[relessly

trumpets.

What
a
convenient
way
to
mask
the
fact
that

although
CO2
has
con[nued
to
increase,

temperature
has
not,
in
spite
of
the
computer

models.
What,
then,
can
we
project
for
global

warming
in
2033?
Instead
of
the
abrupt
warming

that
alarmists
always
say
is
about
to
start,
my

rather
cloudy
crystal
ball
says
global

temperature
is
more
likely
to
con[nue
showing

no
clear
trend
or
to
be
at
the
beginning
of
a

cooling
trend.
Alarmists
will
con[nue
to
blame

every
severe
weather
event
on
climate
change

and
to
oppose
all
energy
projects
except
solar

and
wind.
All
studies
suppor[ng
the
alarmist

view
will
con[nue
to
be
publicized
in
the
liberal

media
while
all
studies
reaching
conclusions
in

opposi[on
will
be
ignored.
Liberal
poli[cians
will

s[ll
support
schemes
to
tax
carbon
by
trying
to

scare
people
of
what
will
happen
without
them,

even
as
the
skep[cism
of
ordinary
people

con[nues
to
increase.
Grants
will
s[ll
be
doled

out
to
scien[sts
whose
previous
results

supported
the
poli[cally
correct
view
while

proposals
from
skep[cs
go
unfunded.
In
short,

just
as
lible
has
changed
with
regard
to
the

poli[cizing
of
the
global
warming
theory
in
the

last
twenty
years,
lible
is
likely
to
change
in
the

next
twenty.”

Dr.
Gene
D.
Robinson
is
Professor
Emeritus

at
James
Madison
University
inVirginia
and

a u t h o r
o f

Global
Warming:
Alarmists,
Skep[cs
&
Deniers
–

A
Geoscien[st
Looks
at
the
Science
of
Climate

Change,
available
at
Amazon
and
most
book

stores.
He
is
also
the
publisher
at

Moonshine
Cove
Publishing,
LLC

The
World
in
2033
and
in
2064

9
INOVA
CONSULTORIA
DE
GESTÃO
E
INOVAÇÃO
ESTRATÉGICA
LTDA

TODOS
OS
DIREITOS
RESERVADOS

Bonus
Thoughts
From
A
Future
Leader

“In
the
next
two
decades
I
believe
my
childhood

desire
to
be
Inspector
Gadget
will
ﬁnally
be

realized.

As
it
is
now,
our
smartphones
are

prac[cally
glued
to
our
hands.

They
are
almost

an
extension
of
our
bodies.

People
are
calling

for
the
next
step
in
technology
to
be
‘wearables,’

including
devices
such
as
web-‐enabled
watches

and
eyeglasses.

But
is
it
really
that
far
of
a

stretch
to
imagine
that
we’d
skip
the
annoyance

of
having
to
“put
on”
our
technology
and
instead

just
“plug
in?”

By
2033
I
believe
that
technological
devices
will

be
directly
implanted
into
our
bodies.

We
are

already
on
the
cusp
of
this
with
cochlear

implants
and
pacemakers,
and
it
isn’t
a
stretch

to
see
where
this
could
go
next.

In
our
future

society,
the
boundaries
between
machine
and

human,
ability
and
disability,
will
be
blurred.

Go

Go
Gadget…”

Paul
G.
Brown
is
a
Ph.D.
Candidate
at

Boston
College.

For
addi*onal
insights,
go

to
paulgordonbrown.wordpress.com

##

For
an
addi[onal
view
of
these
quotes,
view

the
supplemental
deck
on
Slideshare.
To
read

more
about
what
Todd
thinks
today,
follow
me

on
Twiber
at
@toddmwilms
or
connect

on
LinkedIn.

Maybe
we
can
make
it
to
2033

together.

The
World
In
2064

hbps://medium.com/whatsnext/wednesday-‐
aug-‐20-‐2064-‐c24af88637f4

Dear
Diary:
I
am
going
out
for
ice
cream.
Yes,
I

feel
indulgent
tonight.
I
had
a
preby
insane
four-‐
hour
day
at
work.
I
was
on
my
feet
the
whole

[me,
and
my
trackers
say
I’ve
got
so
many
extra

calories
that
I
can
eat
or
drink
anything
I
want

for
the
next
four
hours.
So
I’m
going
to
The

Sweetline.

My
ride
is
plain—a
typical
U.S.
Robots
mini

three-‐seater.
The
car
introduces
itself.

WELCOME.
I
AM
AL-‐76.
WHERE
WOULD
YOU

LIKE
TO
GO?
Printed
and
assembled
eight
days

ago
at
a
car
fab
in
Schenectady,
New
York,
I
see.

Quark,
another
pop-‐up
factory.

AL-‐76’s
probes
seem
a
bit
jumpy.
It
hiccups
as
it

scans
ahead
every
few
hundred
yards,
devouring

informa[on
from
the
GLM
like…What
did
they

used
to
call
it?
A
SPONGE.
Thanks
AL-‐76.

(Historical
Note:
The
Global
Local
Micro
Network

was
created
by
the
mega-‐merger
of
Cisco

Business
Machines
and
Appltel
Corp.
in
2021.)

This
is
a
busy
stretch,
the
heads-‐up
shows
AL-‐76

is
hyper-‐tuning
for
squirrels
and
stray
cats.
It
is

seeking
deer
and
falling
branches;
and
of
course

other
cars,
even
though
no
one’s
seen
a
crash

since
2025.

The
World
in
2033
and
in
2064

10
INOVA
CONSULTORIA
DE
GESTÃO
E
INOVAÇÃO
ESTRATÉGICA
LTDA

TODOS
OS
DIREITOS
RESERVADOS

I
usually
like
LessTraveled,
although
their

standards
seem
to
be
slipping
a
bit.
Cloud
car

services
are
geqng
preby
compe[[ve
these

days;
I
should
have
waved
off
AL-‐76
for
a
real

cruiser.
Then
again
you
never
know
who
you’ll

meet
here.
Anyone
can
subscribe
to

LessTraveled,
but
mostly
they
market
to
people

like
me:
singles
under
40.
Which
means
the
cars

are
smaller
and
you
pay
for
different
services.
I

get
a
lot
of
discounts
at
restaurants
via

LessTraveled.
The
transporta[on
service
you

subscribe
to
is
all
about
where
you
are
in
your

life
right
now.
If
I
was
married
with
kids
I
would

probably
subscribe
to
FamilyVan
and
then
I’d
get

groceries
delivered
whenever
I
want
them,
for

free.

It’s
a
very
preby,
muggy
night.
The
highway
is

smooth,
the
road
sensors
are
hardly
bleeping
at

all
and
we
haven’t
passed
any
repair
drones.
I

can’t
say
I
miss
the
smell
of
smoothing
agent,

they
spray
it
everywhere
as
soon
as
the
sensors

report
any
hint
of
a
crack
or
bump.
I
feel
the

AL-‐76
dri}
to
a
stop.
The
windshield
tells
me
a

squirrel
is
passing.

Apparently,
50
years
ago,
squirrels
used
to
fear

roads.
It
was
bred
out
of
them.
Now
they
just

step
right
out.
Nothing
is
going
to
run
them
over.

Cloud-‐based
subscrip[on-‐driven
automo[ve

lifestyle
services
are
good
for
squirrels.

Off
we
go.

While
various
predic[ons
exist
regarding
self-‐
driving
cars—one
analyst
thinks
we’ll
all
drive

them
by
2026,
but
it’s
hard
to
imagine

regula[ons
changing
so
fast—it
also
makes

sense
that
we
won’t
own
them
ourselves.
A}er

all,
how
o}en
do
you
use
a
car?
Large
networks

make
it
possible
to
be
more
efficient
than
ever

before,
which
is
why
services
like
AirBnb
and

Uber
are
thriving.
More
automa[on
will
yield

ever-‐higher
dividends—the
CEO
of
Uber
has

suggested
that
the
Uber
fleet
will
eventually
be

all
self-‐driving
cars.

Ice
Cream

I
love
the
Sweetline
Ice
Cream
Manufactory.
The

ice
cream
goes
from
cow,
to
pasteurizer,
to

freezer,
to
your
dish
or
cone
along
a
beau[ful

lible
assembly
line.
It’s
enclosed
in
glass
so
that

you
can
watch
it
all
happen.
I
admit
that
this
is

part
of
the
fun
for
me.
I
like
watching
machines

do
their
work.

If
you
want,
you
can
request
ice
cream
by
the

name
of
your
cow.
I
do
not
have
a
favorite
cow.

The
cows
each
have
news
feeds
if
you
are

interested.
They’re
mostly
for
kids,
of
course:

BETSY-‐COW’S
DIARY
AUGUST
20,
2064
Time
for

milking!
Ate
some
grass.
Ate
some
more
grass!

Stomachs
1–4
all
working
great!
Mooed
loudly!

Had
my
regular
automa[c
health
check.
I
am
a

healthy
cow!
Mooed
loudly!
A
great
day!

The
World
in
2033
and
in
2064

11
INOVA
CONSULTORIA
DE
GESTÃO
E
INOVAÇÃO
ESTRATÉGICA
LTDA

TODOS
OS
DIREITOS
RESERVADOS

The
cows
don’t
write
this
of
course.
The
cows

are
filled
with
[ny
microphones
listening
for

moos,
with
GLM
trackers,
and
with
floa[ng

sensors
in
their
stomachs
monitoring
acid
levels.

Bots
tend
the
herd.
When
it
is
[me
to
be
milked

they
all
get
a
lible
milking
buzz
in
their
ears
and

they
line
up
to
be
milked.
The
milk
flows
right

into
a
pasteuriza[on
tank
connected
to
the
ice-‐
cream
machines.

Some
people
really
do
get
into
the
cows
and
you

can
have
a
T-‐shirt
printed
for
you
right
there

where
you
get
your
ice
cream,
with
slogans
like

TEAM
BETSY.
There
is
a
commercial
for
the

Sweetline
chain
that
shows
how
one
couple
met

because
they
each
preferred
mint
chocolate
chip

ice
cream
made
from
a
par[cular
Guernsey
cow

named
Ezekiel.

I
probably
saw
that
commercial
because
I’m

affiliated
with
LessTraveled.
If
I
had
children
I

would
have
seen
a
commercial
about
adop[ng

your
ice
cream
cow.

A
factory
is
no
longer
a
big
building
filled
with

big
machines.
Industrial
designers
are
already

hard
at
work
on
[ny
mul[-‐purpose
factory-‐style

kitchens — like
Swiss
Army
knives.
3-‐D
printers

can
solve
a
lot
of
manufacturing
problems,
but

not
all
of
them.
Tex[le
produc[on,
food

prepara[on,
and
the
like
will
remain
the
domain

of
purpose-‐built
machines.
Let’s
call
them
VSALs,

for
“Very
Small
Assembly
Lines.”
Specialized

devices
speaking
a
similar
language.
They
are
a

key
component
of
the
Industrial
Internet.

A
New
Friend

There
is
a
low
boop
noise
and
upon
my

windshield
there
is
projected
a
picture
of
a

young
woman.
It
tells
me
her
name
is
Susan

Calvin.
She
looks
abrac[ve
to
me
and
I
can
see

at
a
glance
that
we
share
a
number
of
interests

in
history,
technology,
and
graphic
design.
She
is

a
cat
person
while
I
am
a
dog
person,
but
I
can

look
beyond
that.
Since
I
don’t
gesture
her

picture
away
the
car
takes
a
right,
and
in
a

minute
we
pull
up
in
front
of
a
pleasant-‐looking

modern
apartment
building.
She
comes
out
and

the
car
door
opens.
She
hops
in.

Hello,
Susan,
nice
to
share
a
ride
with
you.

Nice
to
meet
you,
Hari.

Susan
gives
me
a
big,
winning
smile.
She
knows

my
name
too,
of
course.
Like
me
she
is
a

subscriber
to
LessTraveled.
Since
it
is
an

automo[ve
network
for
young
people
it
o}en

suggests
that
you
share
a
ride
with
someone

compa[ble.
It
saves
everyone
money
and
[me

and
means
LessTraveled
can
put
fewer
cars
on

the
road.
It’s
interes[ng
when
you
scan
old

history
scrolls
to
learn
just
how
panicked

everyone
was
about
total
global
micro-‐
surveillance.
They
just
didn’t
see
it
as
a
means
of

libera[on,
like
we
do
now.
Of
course
they
lived

in
the
era
of
giant
government-‐run
spying

computers
like
Mul[vac.
No
one
could
imagine

the
upside
of
having
every
human
interac[on

observed
by
penny
sensors
at
all
[mes.
I’m
glad

to
live
in
a
world
where
a
young
woman
can
hop

into
a
self-‐driving
car
with
a
total
stranger
and

not
feel
a
bit
of
concern.

The
World
in
2033
and
in
2064

12
INOVA
CONSULTORIA
DE
GESTÃO
E
INOVAÇÃO
ESTRATÉGICA
LTDA

TODOS
OS
DIREITOS
RESERVADOS

I’m
going
to
go
get
some
ice
cream,
I
say.

Unwevs!
I
love
ice
cream.
Do
you
want
to
go

swimming?
I’m
mee[ng
friends.

Sure.
But
I
didn’t
bring
trunks.

Sensors
are
everywhere,
but
right
now
they
can

only
measure
a
few
things — heart
rate,

temperature,
number
of
steps,
and
the
like.
But

new,
more
unusual
devices
are
far
more

sensi[ve
to
their
surroundings.
There
is
a
cup

that
knows
what
beverages
you
are
drinking —
and
devices
that
count
the
calories
of
foods,
not

by
forcing
you
to
select
from
a
list
but
by

actually
looking
at
the
foods
themselves.

Anything
that
can
be
quan[fied,
probably
will
be

quan[fied.
And
once
it
can
be
quan[fied
it
can

be
analyzed
and
understood.

New
Trunks

Swim
trunks,
I
tell
AL-‐76.
Please
make
them
red

and
white
and
have
them
cut
off
below
the

knee.

That
sounds
nice,
says
Susan.
Car:
I
would
like
a

red-‐and-‐white
one-‐piece!

We
look
at
each
other
briefly
then
shi}
our

aben[on
to
the
car’s
windshield,
where
we
start

to
see
the
whole
process
unfold.
Pictures
of
the

swim-‐trunks
float
before
us,
superimposed
onto

3-‐D
versions
of
our
bodies.
We
look
nice

together.

A
few
miles
away,
a
strategically-‐placed

assembly
line
(about
three
[mes
the
size
of
the

one
used
to
make
the
ice
cream
at
Sweetline)

gears
up
and
sews
me
a
pair
of
trunks.
For

Susan,
it
makes
a
one-‐piece
in
the
same
colors.

One
machine
picks
the
fabrics,
one
dyes
them,

one
sews,
one
finishes.
It
takes
a
few
minutes

and
twenty
other
pieces
of
clothing
are
made
at

the
same
[me.

Now
comes
the
baton
toss:
A
self-‐driving
shuble

car
takes
our
clothes,
and
the
other
ar[cles
of

clothing,
out
to
the
highway.
It
enters
traffic
(on

the
windshield
we
see
a
map
and
dots)
and

begins
to
go
from
car
to
car,
extending
a
tube

and
shoo[ng
ar[cles
into
the
car’s
trunk.
Then

that
car
will
drive
for
a
bit
and
hand
off
various

ar[cles — clothes,
groceries,
baked
goods,
and

the
like — to
other
cars.
In
my
opinion,
CarNet
is

one
of
the
greatest
accomplishments
of
human

civiliza[on,
the
way
moving
cars
deliver
items

from
one
to
another
un[l
they
reach
their

des[na[on — typically
another
moving
car.

Our
swimsuits
are
now
six
minutes
away.

Which
is
fine
because
we’re
here
at
the

Sweetline
and
it’s
[me
for
ice
cream.
I
tear

myself
away
from
the
windshield
and
go
in
and

order.
Of
course
I
could
order
right
from
the
car,

and
Sweetline
could
deliver
me
some
ice
cream

by
CarNet.
But
this
is
a
nice
old-‐fashioned
place

with
blue
[le
on
the
walls
and
people
available

to
answer
any
ques[ons
about
the
ice
cream.

They
wear
white
hats.
I
always
wanted
to
work

here
when
I
was
a
kid.

The
World
in
2033
and
in
2064

13
INOVA
CONSULTORIA
DE
GESTÃO
E
INOVAÇÃO
ESTRATÉGICA
LTDA

TODOS
OS
DIREITOS
RESERVADOS

We
are
uncovering
capacity
that
we
never
knew

existed.
For
example,
most
hotels
would
be

happy
with
60%
occupancy
on
a
typical
night,

which
is
obviously
quite
inefficient;
the
hotel

industry
can
do
all
sorts
of
things
online
to

dynamically
price
and
market
those
rooms.

Other
services—here
AirBNB
comes
to
mind—
are
excellent
at
iden[fying
new
kinds
of
capacity

and
exploi[ng
it.
This
is
s[ll
a
new
approach,
and

some
of
the
early
players
are
winning
big.
But

there
are
literally
hundreds
of
startups
seeking

to
be
the
“Uber
for
X,”
and
through
itera[on,

over
the
next
few
decades,
we
will
find

efficiencies
that
we
never
imagined.

Supply
Chain

It’s
a
nice
night
so
we
sit
at
the
picnic
tables.

Susan’s
diet
trackers
tell
her
she
can
enjoy
ice

cream
as
long
as
she
swims
for
20
minutes
later,

so
she
has
a
small
cone,
custom-‐made
to
the

exactly
quan[[es
communicated
by
her
tracker

to
the
ice-‐cream
maker.
I
have
a
huge
cone
with

sprinkles.
It’s
preby
great.
We
make
small
talk.

Susan
builds
visualiza[on
tools
for
life
coaches

and
therapists,
so
that
they
know
everything

that’s
going
on
in
their
pa[ent’s
lives.
She’s
part

programmer,
part
graphic
designer,
part
data

scien[st.
I
tell
her
about
my
job
in
babery
design

and
delivery.
At
first
she
thinks
I
design
the

baberies
myself,
but
that’s
basically
a
genius-‐
level
gig.
What
I
do
is
a
lot
so}er:
I
keep
track
of

all
the
rela[onships
between
all
the
companies

that
go
into
the
real-‐[me
babery
supply
chain.

So
when
your
car
pulls
up
to
a
kiosk
and
a
new

babery
is
installed,
that’s
all
done
by
robots,
of

course.

But
underneath
that
are
a
ton
of
human

rela[onships — problems
of
real
estate,
and
who

owns
what
intellectual
property.
You
can’t
just

step
all
over
that
when
you
decide
to
insert
tab

A
into
socket
B.
So
when
a
new
babery
is
coming

out
I
go
from
manufactory
owner
to
kiosk

manager
and
explain
what’s
needed
and
what’s

new,
and
how
they
may
need
to
retool
their

kiosks,
and
what
raw
materials
they
might
need,

and
how
to
make
sure
that
waste
is
transported

according
to
federal
guidelines.
They’re
going
to

need
to
spend
money,
a}er
all.
We
don’t
take

that
for
granted
in
the
babery
industry.

I
think
I
love
the
CarNet
baton
toss
and
watching

the
ice
cream
being
made
so
much
because
it

isn’t
just
robots
touching
each
other.
I
see
this

grand
human
orchestra[on,
all
these
people

working
together.
I
know
how
hard
it
can
be
to

build
rela[onships
that
make
all
of
this
possible.

We
can
see
our
car
from
our
picnic
table.
A}er
a

few
minutes
a
small
car
pulls
up
next
to
ours
and

two
things
happen:
The
car
extends
a
tube
and

shoots
a
package
into
our
trunk,
so
that’s
done.

Our
swimsuits
are
here!
My
wrist
buzzes
to
let

me
know
that
the
money
has
been
withdrawn

from
my
LessTraveled
account.
And,
then,
two

people
get
out,
and
Susan’s
wrist
beeps,

announcing
her
friends
Gaal
Dornick
and
Hober

Mallow
have
arrived.
Coincidentally
their
car

was
carrying
our
swimsuits.

The
World
in
2033
and
in
2064

14
INOVA
CONSULTORIA
DE
GESTÃO
E
INOVAÇÃO
ESTRATÉGICA
LTDA

TODOS
OS
DIREITOS
RESERVADOS

Susan
introduces
us.
I
can’t
tell
if
they
are
a

couple
or
not.
Of
course
if
they
were
single
I

would
know
that,
so
they
probably
are
in
a

rela[onship
but
just
aren’t
announcing
it
yet.

I
just
ordered
a
new
swimsuit,
says
Susan.

Oh
cool,
says
Hober.
I
should
get
a
new
one
too.

My
other
pair
is
a
few
weeks
old.

We
all
chat
a
lible
about
how
nice
the
night
is

and
how
much
fun
it
is
to
be
out.
We
all
eat
ice

cream.
Then
it’s
[me
to
go.
Susan
has
the
easy

op[on
to
go
with
Gaal
and
Hober — a
polite
way

to
signal
that
this
won’t
turn
into
a
date,
but
is

just
friendly — but
she
doesn’t.
She
gets
back

into
our
car.

The
future
is
in
big,
powerful
baberies.
And

baberies
are
geqng
smarter:
they
have
smarts

of
their
own,
the
ability
to
signal
how
they
are

opera[ng,
and
even
keep
track
of
things
like

humidity.
This
will
allow
for
many
small,
[ny,

incremental
changes.
Enormous
leaps
in

materials
science
and
computer
technology
are

going
to
be
preby
rare,
but
incremental
change

can
happen
by
analyzing
big
data
and
truly

working
to
understand
it.
The
future
is
probably

thousands,
or
millions,
of
incremental

op[miza[ons
as
opposed
to
any
one
single

colossal
technological
advance.

Swimming

It
turns
out
a
friend
of
Susan
lives
on
a
lake,
near

Terminus
sta[on.

When
we
open
the
trunk
of
our
car
there
are
the

swimsuits,
ready
to
pull
from
their
travel
tubes.

There
are
lots
of
people
here,
making
drinks
the

old-‐fashioned
way,
with
cups
and
bobles.
I
let

my
earpiece
guide
me
to
my
host
and
introduce

myself.
He’s
a
man
in
his
40s
in
great
shape,

Lawrence
Robertson.
He
must
exercise

constantly.
According
to
his
bio,
he
created
an

app
that
matched
people
to
cats
that
fit
their

personal
profile.
That’s
why
he
can
afford
this

lake
house.

I
change
in
his
spare
bedroom
and
come
out
to

find
that
Susan
has
changed
too.
I
have
to
swim

if
I’m
going
to
jus[fy
that
ice
cream,
she
laughs.

She
runs
to
the
dock
and
jumps
off.
Then
she

yells:
it’s
very
cold.

I
go
in
too
and
we
both
tread
water
for
a
while,

warming
up.
Just
swimming.
The
sun
is
going

down.
Susan
dives
and
comes
up
with
a
smooth

stone.

Here,
she
says.
I
got
you
this.

I
put
it
in
the
pocket
of
my
trunks.
I’m
grateful

they
have
a
pocket.
I
didn’t
ask
for
one.

A
few
more
people
dive
off
the
dock.
We
all

know
each
other’s
names
and
interests.
Susan

swims
du[fully
out
and
back
for
ten
minutes.
I

watch
the
sun
drop
behind
the
horizon,
enjoying

the
reflec[on
over
the
lakefront.

The
World
in
2033
and
in
2064

15
INOVA
CONSULTORIA
DE
GESTÃO
E
INOVAÇÃO
ESTRATÉGICA
LTDA

TODOS
OS
DIREITOS
RESERVADOS

As
I
get
out
of
the
water,
Hober
jumps
in.
He’s

wearing
a
[ny
inflatable
cast
around
his
ankle.

Hober
yells
out,
hurt
it
at
soccer!
He
flops

around
on
his
back.
The
cast
glows
briefly
to
tell

him
to
stop
moving
so
much,
and
he
goes
s[ll

and
takes
a
long
breath.
This
is
preby
nice,
he

says
to
me.

I
spend
the
night
as
I
spend
so
many
nights:

smiling,
realizing
how
much
I
have
in
common

with
people,
flir[ng,
talking
about
our
jobs.

But
unlike
many
of
the
people
here
I
have
an

early
morning.
Most
of
them
work
in
the

crea[ve
industries.
But
kiosk
and
manufactory

people
tend
to
be
up
and
to
work
by
9AM.

I
go
find
Susan
and
tell
her
it
was
nice
to
meet

her.
She’s
not
bothered
I’m
leaving,
of
course.

I’m
not
quite
sure
what
she
thinks
of
me.
She’s

with
some
friends.
She
gives
me
a
hug
goodbye.

My
car
pulls
up
on
the
gravel
path
outside.

I
look
around
but
no
one
else
needs
a
ride.
I’m
a

lible
saddened
by
that.
I
let
the
car
drive
me

home.

When
the
car
reaches
my
apartment
I
get
out

and
it
drives
away.
My
front
door
unlocks

automa[cally
and
I
walk
in.

It’s
a
very
quiet
place,
my
apartment.
I
like
it

simple.
No
screens,
just
a
few
chairs.
There’s
a

kitchen
manufactory
but
I
hardly
use
it.
It
feels
a

lible
empty
tonight,
to
be
honest.
My
swim

trunks
are
wet
and
I
wonder
why
I
didn’t
just

leave
them
for
the
car
company
to
deal
with.

Then
I
think
for
a
moment
about
hanging
them

up
to
dry,
but
it’s
going
to
be
Fall
soon
and
I

probably
won’t
go
swimming
again
this
season,

so
why
bother?
They’ll
feel
weird
hanging
up
in

front
of
the
nice
white
walls.
I
throw
them
in
the

composter
and
it
begins
to
beep.
Something
is

wrong.

I
retrieve
them
and
feel
the
weight
of
the
lake

stone
in
the
pocket.
I
pull
it
out.

It’s
very
preby,
very
old,
just
a
rock,
of
course.

But
it’s
also
something
solid
and
permanent.
I

like
that
another
human
being
gave
me
this
old,

solid,
ar[fact
of
the
earth.
It’s
a
welcome

reminder
of
just
how
long
this
world
has
been

here.
I
like
that
it
came
from
Susan.
I’ll
see
her

again,
I’m
sure
of
it.
I
put
the
rock
on
a
small

shelf
above
the
kitchen
units,
and
it
catches

some
of
the
moonlight
through
the
window.
I

am
very
pleased
with
the
effect.
Then
I
throw

the
swim
trunks
away
again,
and
the
composter

accepts
them
without
complaint.

This
ar[cle
is
a
part
of
GE’s
“What’s
Next”

collec[on
that
gathers
perspec[ves
from
the

makers
of
tomorrow.
Do
you
have
a
vision
for

the
future?
Tweet
@generalelectric
for
the

opportunity
to
collaborate
on
“What’s
Next.”

17
INOVA
CONSULTORIA
DE
GESTÃO
E
INOVAÇÃO
ESTRATÉGICA
LTDA

TODOS
OS
DIREITOS
RESERVADOS

contato@inovaconsul[ng.com


conteúdos

Estudos
e
Relatórios
de
Pesquisa:

•  futuro,
prospec[va
e
foresight

•  drivers
&
megatendências

•  tendências
comportamentais

•  tendências
de
negócio

•  tendências
setoriais

•  insights
de
negócio

Conteúdos
Acadêmicos
e

Empresariais

Futuro,
Tendências,
Inovação:

•  ar[gos

•  papers

•  apresentações

•  livros

•  cri[cas
literárias

•  research
notes

consultoria
educação
–
INOVA
BUSINESS
SCHOOL

Futuro
e
Tendências

•  futuro,
prospec[va
e
foresight

aplicado
à
estratégia
de
negócio

•  predições
e
[melines

•  tradução
e
aplicação
de

tendências
no
negócio

•  gestão
por
cenários
e

mapeamento
de
realidades

futuras

• 
trend
maps
&
visão
2020

Inovação

•  mindset
inovador

•  criação,
construção
e

disseminação
corpora[va
de

programas
de
cultura
e
gestão
da

inovação

•  inovação
estratégica,
modelos
e

projetos
de
inovação

•  empreendedorismo
corpora[vo

•  design
thinking
aplicado
à
gestão

•  cria[vidade
e
idea[on

•  geração
de
insights

MBA
Execu[vo
e
Pós-‐MBA
com

especializações
inéditas
nas
áreas
de:

•  tendências
e
inovação

•  cria[vidade,
storytelling
e
design

thinking

•  empreendedorismo,
marke[ng,

branding
e
comunicação

•  estratégia,
negócios
digitais
e

midias
sociais

•  ﬁnanças,
pessoas
e
operações

Palestras
In
Company
sobre
os

temas:

•  futuro:
visão
2050

•  design
thinking
ac[on
lab

•  storytelling,
cria[vidade,

pensamento
lateral
e
es]mulo

cria[vo

•  tendências
e
insights
para

negócios

•  ferramentas
e
metodologias
para

conhecer
o
futuro
e
as
tendências

Programas
In
Company
com
os

temas:

•  observatório
de
tendências

•  Branding

•  Storytelling

•  Empreendedorismo

•  Corpora[vo

•  inovação
estratégica

•  cria[vidade
e
design
thinking

•  audit
e
desenvolvimento
de

competências
de
inovação

Masters
de
Especialização

•  coolhun[ng
e
pesquisa
de

tendências

•  gestão
da
inovação
e
inovação

estratégica

•  como
fazer
apresentações
e
falar

em
público

INOVA
CONSULTING

18
INOVA
CONSULTORIA
DE
GESTÃO
E
INOVAÇÃO
ESTRATÉGICA
LTDA

TODOS
OS
DIREITOS
RESERVADOS

contato@inovaconsul[ng.com


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