Watson Solutions General Manager Manoj Saxena's TED talk on Bending the Knowledge Curve: "We have only just begun a new era of Cognitive Computing which will dramatically influence our own evolution" http://bit.ly/13cyAGX
3. 3
Person Organization
L. Gerstner IBM
J. Welch GE
W. Gates Microsoft
“If leadership is an art
then surely Jack Welch
has proved himself a
master painter during his
tenure at GE.”
Welch ran
this?
Noses that run and feet that smell?
How can a house burn up as it burns down?
Does CPD represent a complex comorbidity of lung cancer?
What mix of zero-coupon, non-callable, A+ munis fit my risk tolerance?
Why is Watson a Big Deal?
4. 4
Humanity is at its next big inflection point ...
Cuneiform Tablets
Mesopotamia
34 B.C
Gutenberg Press
Europe
1450 A.D
The Internet
US (DoD)
1960
Cognitive Computers
US (IBM)
2006
“Systems that are capable of
learning from interactions
with data and humans —
continuously reprogramming
themselves vs. being
programmed by humans”
5. 5
Understands
natural language
and human
communication
Adapts and learns
from user
selections and
responses
Generates and
evaluates
evidence-based
hypothesis
…built on a massively parallel
architecture optimized for IBM POWER7
1
2
3
IBM Watson combines transformational technologies to help
computers understand and engage with us
200m pages in 3 seconds!
7. 7
7
Symptoms
UTI
Diabetes
Influenza
Hypokalemia
Renal Failure
no abdominal pain
no back pain
no cough
no diarrhea
(Thyroid Autoimmune)
Esophagitis
pravastatin
Alendronate
levothyroxine
hydroxychloroquine
Diagnosis Models
frequent UTI
cutaneous lupus
hyperlipidemia
osteoporosis
hypothyroidism
SymptomsFam.History
Pat.History
MedicationsFindings
Confidence
difficulty swallowing
dizziness
anorexia
fever
dry mouth
thirst
frequent urination
Family
History
Graves’ Disease
Oral cancer
Bladder cancer
Hemochromatosis
Purpura
Patient
HistoryMedicationsFindings
supine 120/80 mm HG
urine dipstick:
leukocyte esterase
urine culture: E. Coli
heart rate: 88 bpm
Symptoms
A 58-year-old woman complains of
dizziness, anorexia, dry mouth,
increased thirst, and frequent
urination. She had also had a fever.
She reported no pain in her abdomen,
back, and no cough, or diarrhea.
A 58-year-old woman presented to her
primary care physician after several days
of dizziness, anorexia, dry mouth,
increased thirst, and frequent urination.
She had also had a fever and reported that
food would “get stuck” when she was
swallowing. She reported no pain in her
abdomen, back, or flank and no cough,
shortness of breath, diarrhea, or dysuria
Family
History
Her family history included oral and
bladder cancer in her mother,
Graves' disease in two sisters,
hemochromatosis in one sister, and
idiopathic thrombocytopenic
purpura in one sister
Patient
History
Her history was notable for cutaneous
lupus, hyperlipidemia, osteoporosis,
frequent urinary tract infections, a left
oophorectomy for a benign cyst, and
primary hypothyroidism, diagnosed a
year earlier
Her medications were levothyroxine,
hydroxychloroquine, pravastatin, and
alendronate.
MedicationsFindings
A urine dipstick was positive for
leukocyte esterase and nitrites. The
patient given a prescription fo
ciprofloxacin for a urinary tract
infection. 3 days later, patient reported
weakness and dizziness. Her supine
blood pressure was 120/80 mm Hg,
and pulse was 88.
•
Extract Symptoms from record
•
Use paraphrasings mined from text to handle
alternate phrasings and variants
•
Perform broad search for possible diagnoses
•
Score Confidence in each diagnosis based on
evidence so far
•
Identify negative Symptoms
•
Reason with mined relations to explain away
symptoms (thirst is consistent w/ UTI)
•
Extract Family History
•
Use Medical Taxonomies to generalize medical
conditions to the granularity used by the models
•
Extract Patient History•
Extract Medications
•
Use database of drug side-effects
•
Together, multiple diagnoses may best explain
symptoms
•
Extract Findings: Confirms that UTI was present
Most Confident Diagnosis: DiabetesMost Confident Diagnosis: UTIMost Confident Diagnosis: EsophagitisMost Confident Diagnosis: Influenza
Putting the pieces together at point of impact can be game changing
can be life changing
8. 8
Medicine
In 2020
Watson will change
the way Medicine is:
RESEARCHED
•
MD Anderson’s Moon Shot program
PRACTICED
•
Memorial Sloan-Kettering, Community
Cancer Care Centers
TAUGHT
•
Students learning from and “teaching”
Watson at the Cleveland Clinic
9. 9
Contact Center
Healthcare Financial Services
Government
Diagnostic/treatment
assistance, evidenced-
based insights,
collaborative medicine
Investment and
retirement planning,
institutional trading and
decision support
Call center and tech support
services, enterprise
knowledge management,
consumer insight
Public safety, improved
information sharing,
security
Cognitive Systems will enable mass movement in core industries
by bending the knowledge curve
10. 10
We are about to get “Schumpetered” from this Super Convergence
Cloud
Social
Mobile
Big Data
Analytics Millennials
11. 11
1
1900 1950 20XX
Watson Jeopardy!
System
circa 2011
Cognitive
Computing “Brain
Cube”
aka SyNAPSE
circa 2020
We have only just begun a new era of Cognitive Computing
Calculate rapidly Learn from data &
interactions
12. 12
Watson represents the beginning of a great shift in our own evolution
“Homo sapiens have had it, Homo digitus* is the future”
*David Zeitlyn
X
Notes de l'éditeur
Main Point: At the core of what makes Watson different are three powerful technologies - natural language, hypothesis generation, and evidence based learning. But Watson is more than the sum of its individual parts. Watson is about bringing these capabilities together in a way that’s never been done before resulting in a fundamental change in the way businesses look at quickly solving problems Solutions that learn with each iteration Capable of navigating human communication Dynamically evaluating hypothesis to questions asked Responses optimized based on relevant data Ingesting and analyzing Big Data Discovering new patterns and insights in seconds Further speaking points: . Looking at these one by one, understanding natural language and the way we speak breaks down the communication barrier that has stood in the way between people and their machines for so long. Hypothesis generation bypasses the historic deterministic way that computers function and recognizes that there are various probabilities of various outcomes rather than a single definitive ‘right’ response. And adaptation and learning helps Watson continuously improve in the same way that humans learn….it keeps track of which of its selections were selected by users and which responses got positive feedback thus improving future response generation Additional information : The result is a machine that functions along side of us as an assistant rather than something we wrestle with to get an adequate outcome
Main point: Watson has already changed industries around the world by expanding the expectations that tens of millions of people have about technology and its possibilities to help them live and work better. And as Watson is deployed in more and more industries it will continue to raise the bar for business technology. In many ways, the barriers that have for so long kept IT from meeting its full potential for helping us live and work better are falling. The only barriers are our own imaginations. How can Watson help you? Further speaking points: . Moving beyond healthcare, the Watson team is exploring opportunities to help financial planners help their investment and retirement planning customers and help institutional traders make better decisions. The team is working with contact centers improve their call center and tech support services, improve enterprise knowledge management , and improve customer insight. And the team is working with governments to improve public safety, public information sharing and security. Additional information : IBM Watson has the capabilities to address grand business and societal challenges
Main Point: Watson represents a whole new class of industry specific solutions called cognitive systems. It builds on the current paradigm of Programmatic Systems and is not meant to be a replacement; programmatic systems will be with us for the foreseeable future. But in many cases, keeping pace with the demands of an increasingly complex business environment and challenges requires a paradigm shift in what we should expect from IT. We need an approach that recognizes today’s realities and treats them as opportunities rather than challenges. Further speaking points: For example, most digitized information of the past was structured. It was organized into tables, stored in easily identified cells in databases, and easily searched and accessed. Unstructured information was largely ignored as too difficult to utilize…and therefore it lay fallow. Similarly, traditional IT has largely limited itself to deterministic applications. 2+2=4. 100cm in a meter. Situations where there is only one answer to a question But this rules out a whole world of real world situations that have a more probabilistic outcome. It is very likely that the car will not start because of a dead battery but there is a chance there is a clog in the fuel line. It is very likely to be sunny tomorrow but it may rain. Traditional IT relies on search to find the location of a key phrase. Emerging IT gathers information and combines it for true discovery. Traditional IT can handle only small sets of focused data while IT today must live with big data. And traditional IT interacts with machine language while what we as users really need is interaction the way we ourselves communicate – in natural language.