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F                           F                                                F               1

                                                                                                                                 11
                                                                                                                             F

11.1                                                                         F

                                                              (exchange rate)                                                                                                  F             F
                                                  F
                                                                         F                                                                                       F                               F        F

                         F                                                                       F                                                       F               39 = $ 1
           39                                         F                                                  F F             1                       F

            1)                                                                                                       F                                               F     F                                              F
                     F                F                                                      F
            2)                                            F                          F                   F                                   F                                                                    F
                                  F
                 F                                                                                                                   F                                               F                                F
       F                                                             F                                           F                       F           F
                                          F                                                          F
                                                                                         2
            1)                                                                                   (fixed exchange rate)
                                                                                                                                                                                                      F
                                                                 F               F
        2)                                                                                                                                                                         F F               (flexible or
floating exchange rate)                                                                                                                                                             F                 F
                   F
                                                                  (flexible exchange rate)
                                 F F                            F           (demand for foreign exchange)
                                                                    (direct determination) F F                                                                                                                                    F
                                              F



            F                F                                                                               F                                                                           F
F                                 F                                                                             F                   2

                                                                      F               (indirect determinations)                                            F F                     F F                                                                            F
                                    ,                    , F                                                                                                                         F                                                                F
                                                    (exogenous variable)

                                                                            :$

                                                                                      B
                               45

                               40                                                         C                   A                              E              D$
                                                                                                                                                                     ″

                                                                                                                                                  D$
                                                                                                                                              ′
                                                                                                                                   D$



                                            0                               Q2                            Q1                                Q3             Q(              FF                                      F
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       F                                  )

                                                      F           F                          FF                   F                                    F        D$

                        F         F                                                                                                                                        F
         F       (move along the curve on demand curve)                                                                            F F                           F                       ( D$ )                            F                      F
                          F       40 = $ 1 (                                                                                        F              40                    F 1                           F                                                      )
                                             A                                                                                    F F                       F
     F                      F Q1                                                                                                                       45 = $ 1 (
             F     45         F 1          F        )                                                                              F F                        F
 F                                      Q2                                                                                                                F                                                                B
                                                                                                                      F                     F F                 F
                                                                                  F               F F                         F
                 FF                             F                                                                                       F                                                          F                                          F
                                                                          F F                     F                                                                            F
                          FF                              F
                                        F                                                                                                                                                                      F                             F
                                                              F                 F F                       F                                                                                                                          F (shift
demand curve) F                                                                                                                                                                            F                                   F F
 F              ( F                                                                    F F                                          F                                                          F                                      F

                      F                     F                                                         F                                                                                                    F
F                                                         F                                                                                    F                     3

                                F             F                                     ,                                                                                      F                                               F                               F                                                                                F
                            F                           ,                                                                                                      F                                                                                                                    F                                       F
                                                       ,                                                                                   F                           F                                                                                                        F                      F
        F                                                                               FF                                F                                                                                      F )                                                            F F                                F F
        F                                                                                    F                                                                                                   F               D$                            F                   D$
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ″
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ( F                                                                  F
                                                                                                                         40 = $ 1                                                                                (shift)                                               A       E                                                                F F
                                          F                                                                                                        F                                                                                    Q1                             Q3) F
                                                                                                                                                                                                         F                             F F                                F                                                                 ( F
                                    F F                                                                      F                                                                       F                                 F                                                F    F   ,
                                                       F                                         F                            F                                                                      F                                 F                           ,
                    F                                                                                                                          F                                             F                                                                                             ,
                        F                                               F                                                                                  F                             F                                                                     F                                                            FF
            F                                                                                    F )                                    F F                                    F F                                             F                                                                               F                 F
                                                                   F            D$                                   F    D$
                                                                                                                                  ′
                                                                                                                                       ( F                                                                        F                                                                                                        40 = $ 1
                                                                       (shift)                                            A                                C                                         F F                                           F
    F                                                                        Q1                                          Q2)
                                                                                                                 F                 (supply of foreign exchange)
                                                                                                                          (direct determination) F F                                                                                                                                                                                                          F

                                                                                                         F         (indirect determinations)     F F                                                                                                                                           F                                                          F
                F                                 (                                     F                               F F               F                F                                                                                                                                                           ,                F
                                                  ,                                                              F        F      ,                   F F
                F                                  F                            F                                           F ),       F                 F
,                                                              F                                                      F            (         F
                                                                        ,                                           F                )         F                                                                                                                                                                   (exogenous
variable)
                                                                            F                        F                                FF                           F                                                               F           S$

                           F       F                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        F
                  F (move along the curve on supply curve)                                                                                                                                                                                             F                                ( S$ )                     F                F
                             F     40 = $ 1 (                                                                                                                                                                F         40                                          F 1                             F                                                      )
                                               A                                                                                                                                                                                      F
                F              F Q1                                                                                                                                                                                                45 = $ 1 (

                                     F                     F                                                                                           F                                                                                                                                                   F
F                                  F                                                                                             F            4

         F           45                       F 1                          F                                                )                                                                        F
 F                                                                Q3                                                                                                                   F                                                           B
                                                                                                                                    F                                                                    F
                                                                               F                                                                              F
                                              F                                                                                                                                                                                                    F                                           F
                                                                                                       F                                                                                                                         F
                                                      F                                                                                                                                                      F                       F        S$       F                               F

                                                                           :$B
                                                                                                                                                                       ′                                                                  ″
                                                                                                                                                                  S$                             S$                                  S$


                             45                                                                                                                                       B
                                                                                   C                                    A                                         E
                             40



                                  0                                            Q2                                           Q1                                        Q3                   Q(                                                                      F
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       F                                    )

                              F                                                                                                                                                                                                                                F                           F
                                                  F                                                                     F                                                                                                                                                          F (shift
supply curve) F                                                                                                                                                                                                                               F
 F                                                                                                                                          F F                                                                  F                                                         F
        / F                                                                                F                                            F                                                                                                                                      F
             /                                                         F               F                            F                                                                                                                    / F
                                                                                   F           F                                F                                                          /                             F
             F                                                                                             F F                                                             F                 F                                                                 ,
     F                                                        F                                                                                                                            F                                              F                                        F
                                                                                                   F                                                                               ,                                                                                                                    F
                                                                                                                                                      F                        F                 F
                                          F               F                                                 F                                                                                                        F
                 F       F        F                       F F                                                                                     F                                                                          F                                                                     F   S$



                     F                F                                                                         F                                                                                                                                          F
F                                       F                                                                      F                    5

                             F       S$
                                          ″
                                               ( F                                                  F                                                                                                     40 = $ 1
(shift)                                       A         E                                                                                 F                                                                                  F
      Q1                                      Q3) F                                                                                                                                                                                                                           F
                                                 F                                                                                                                      F F                                                              F
     F                                              / F                                                                   F                                 F                                                                                                     F
                                                   /                                      F             F                     F                                                                                                  / F
                                                                                                            F                     F                 F                                                                    /                           F
                                                         F                                                                                    F F                                             F                  F                                           ,
                     F                                                       F                                                                                                    F                                                  F                                    F
                                                                                                                F                                                             ,
                 F                                                                                                                                              F                                 F                  F
                                                                F                              F                                      F                             F                                        F                               F
             F                                                                   F                                      F F                                                                           F                                                               F
                         F                    F        S$            F           S$
                                                                                      ′
                                                                                              ( F                                                       F                                                                                                40 = $ 1
                                                      (shift)                    A                              C                                                                         F
         F                                                      Q1               Q2)
                                                                                              (equilibrium exchange rate)
                                                                                                                     F F          F       (demand for
foreign exchange))                                                                                        F       (supply of foreign exchange)
                                                                         F                              F F        F            F
 F

                                                                                     :$B
                                                                                                                                                                          S$



                                                                                                                          E
                                      40

                                                                                                                                                                                  D$




                                              0                                                                          QE                                               Q(                                                     F                               :$)


                                 F                F                                                                 F                                                                                                                            F
F                                             F                                                           F                     6

                                                                                                                                                                     F                        E                                          FF                       F                                       F
                                                                           F                                                            QE                                                                                                    40 = $ 1
                                                   F                                                                                                                                                       F                                                                               F
                    F                                                                                       F F                                         F                                                                                                                 F                                       F
                             F                                                                                F                                                                                                     F                    F                    F
                                                                                                F                                                                        F                                                                                F F
        F                                                                               F                                 F                                 F        S$                            F           S$
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ′
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              F
                            (                          F                                    F           F )

                                                                                                        :$B
                                                                                                                                                                                          ′
                                                                                                                                   E′                                         S$                                    S$

                                         41
                                                                                                        A                                                       E
                                         40

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    D$




                                                   0                                                    Q3                        Q2                            Q1                                                      Q(                                            F                             :$)

                                                                                    F                                                                                                             40 = $ 1                                                                        (shift)                      E
                                     A                                                                            F                                                                                                             F                                                      Q1                     Q3
                                         F F                                    F                                             F                                 F EA (                                     Q1Q3 )                                                             F
                                                               F                                                                                    F                                                                                   40 = $ 1                                   41 = $ 1                           F
                            F F                                        F                                                                                                                      E                                 E′

F                                                                                                   A                             E′                                          F F                               F                                         F
            F                                                                  Q2                                                               F                        E′                                                                                       F F                          41 = $ 1
                                           F
    F                                                                                                                                   F                                         F                                                                   F                                                       F
                                 F                                                                                    F                                                       F                                             F                                                      F                F F
                                                                   F                                                                                            F            S$                        F       S$
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ′
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  F
                (                              F                                                    F         )


                        F                                  F                                                                                F                                                                                                                                          F
F                             F                                                    F             7


                                                                          :$
                                                                                                                                   S$


                                                                                                                                                    ′
                                                                                             E                                             S$

                     41                                                                                                        A
                                                                                                             E′
                     40


                                                                                                                                                    D$



                                  0                                                          Q1 Q2                        Q3               Q(                                    F                               :$)


                                                      F                                                                             41 = $ 1                                             (shift)                        E
                 A                                                             F                                                                F                                             Q1                       Q3
                                                          F                              F                   F EA (                     Q1Q3 )                                       F
                                      F                                                                  F                                                  41 = $ 1                     40 = $ 1                          F
                                              F                                                                                    A                        E′                               F F
     F                                                            F                    F F                        F                                                        E                      E′                           F
 F                   F                                        F                                                       F                                          Q2                                               F
E′                                                                                 F F               40 = $ 1
                                                                                                                                                                                                  F F
         F                                F       F                                                           F                F          F F                          F                                               F
                          F                                           F                                                                                                    F F                     F F
         F                                    (                                    )             F                                                           (     F                          F          F        )




             F                F                                                                      F                                                                                    F
F                                         F                                                                                      F                8

                                                :$
                                                                                                                                                   S$


                                                                                                                  E′
                     41
                                                                                                 E                                         A
                     40
                                                                                                                                                                                 /
                                                                                                                                                                    D$


                                                                                                                                                       D$



                                  0                                                                  Q1 Q2                                 Q3               Q(                                                       F                                         :$)

     F                                                                                                                                      F F                                          F                                                 F               F
                                       F    F                      F F                                   F                                                                             F F                               F F
 F                                    F (              )                                 F                                                         (                                 F F                                                       )
                          F

                     - appreciate                          F                                                                           F                                                             ( F
         ) F                                                       (                                                   )                                                         ( F                                               F                          )
                                                                         F                                                                                  F                                        F                                                     40 =
$1                   35 = $ 1                                                                                              F                   F            (                        40                              35                                    )
                                                 F                                                   F       (1                                    F                     )                                                             F

                     - depreciate                              F                                                                   F                                                                 ( F
         )       F                                             (                                                   )                                                     ( F                                                   F                                )
                                                                                 F                                                                              F                                        F                                                     40
=$1                           45 = $ 1                                       F                                                                                               F               (               40                                                45
   )                                                                                 F                                         F            (1                                       F                   )
 F
                      F                              F F                                                     ( F                                                                     )                                                                 F
                                                                                                               ( F                                                   F                           )           F                                     F



             F                F                                                              F                                                                                                                   F
F                                                  F                                                                                  F                 9

                          (                       F                   F)                                                 F                                               F                        (                                                            F                     )
        F                                                                                         F                                               F                     (                                         F                    F                                                                  F)

          - revaluation                                                                                      F
  F     FF                                                                      ( F                                                                                     ) F
    ( F              F                                                           ) F                                 F                                                                                                            F                                        F                 40 =
$1       F 1 = $ 40 (1
                                                                                    1                                                F F                                    1
                                                                                                                                                                            40
                                                                                                                                                                                                              F                            )                       F
                                                              F       35 = $ 1                                                                F                    1=$              1
                                                                                                                                                                                    35
                                                                                                                                                                                                      (                                    1                                       F F                    1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          35
                    F                 )                                                                                                                                                                           F F                                        F F                                                       F
                                                                                              F                      (                                     F                                                                                                                                                                   F
                )                         F                                                                                                                                          40 = $ 1                                                  35 = $ 1
    F             (                                                               F                                                   F                                 )
          - devaluation                                                                                  F
  F     F F                                                                       ( F                                                                                       )        F
    ( F              F                                                             ) F                               F                                                                                                            F                                        F                 40 =
$1       F 1 = $ 40 (1
                                                                                    1                                                F F                                    1
                                                                                                                                                                            40
                                                                                                                                                                                                              F                            )                       F
                                                          F           45 = $ 1                                                            F                        1=$              1
                                                                                                                                                                                    45
                                                                                                                                                                                                  (                                   1                                            F F                    1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          45
                    F                 )                                                                                                                                                                           F F                                        F F                                                   F
                                                                                      F                              (                                         F                                                                                                                                                           F
                )                     F                                                                                                                                             40 = $ 1                                               45 = $ 1                                                            F
                                      (                                     F                                                F                                     )
                              F                                             F F                                                                       ( F                                                                     )                                                                  F
                                                                                                                                                        ( F                                                           F                          )                             F                     F
                                                                                          F                      F                                                              (                 F                                   F)                     ( F                                         40 =
$1                        35 = $ 1 )                                   F                                                         F                                                        (
                     F)                                           F                                                                                                                           F                           F                                                              (                 F
                    F)                    ( F                              40 = $ 1                                                  45 = $ 1 )                                                       F                                              F
(                                                                                                                    )
                                                                                                                     F
                                      F               F                                                                                                                             F F




            F                     F                                                                   35 =F $ 1                                                                                                                                                        F

appreciate                                    F                                                                                                                        revaluation                                                                       F
F                              F                               F        10




                                       F                                                               F                                          F F
                                                                      F                                                          F




                            F                      (                                              )
                                                                                                  F                                                      (       F                F)


        F               F                                                         F                                    F                                                 40 = $
                                                       1=$       1
                                                                                      1=$                          1                 45 = $ 1
                                                                 40
    1
    35
            (                                                                                   40 =
$1                                35 = $ 1)

                                   F                                          F                                    F                      F                  F         40 = $
1                               45 = $ 1                                                                                                           F F            (depreciate)
    F                                                                                                      F                          F                        (devaluation )
                F                                                         F             F                                  F          40 = $ 1               35 = $ 1
                                                                                                F F                              (appreciate) F
                                                             F                              F                                  (revaluation)
                                               F

            F                   (indirect determination)                                                               (exogenous variable)                               F

                    F                      F                                                      F                                                                  F
F                                         F                                                F       11

                 (shift)                                               F                            FF                              F                                                  /               F                                                 F
     F            F
                 1)                                                                                                                                 F                                                              F                (change in taste)
                       F                                                                                                                                     F                 F                                                         F         F
 F                                                                                                  F F                                 F                                                                  F                  F F            F
                      F           F    F                                                                                                                                                                                          (
                     depreciate              F         ) (                                                                                                                                                                                 F F
↑ → M ↑ → D$ ↑ → e ↑ → depreciate)

           F        F F                                   F                                                                                                                                                                                                         F
   F                                     F                         F
 F                              F          F       F                                                                                                                                                                                         (
                         appreciate              F          )(       F
             F       ↑ → X ↑ → S $ ↑ → e ↓ → appreciate)

     2)                       F        (relative income change)
         F     F                                     F         ( F
                              ∆Y T
                                                   ↑           )                                F                   F                                                                                              (                 F                                   )
                          ∆YUS
                     F F                                           F                                                                            F                        F F                       F
         F                             F                                           F                                                                             (
                                                                                                                                                ∆Y T
depreciate                                                                                  F                  )(                                            ↑ → M ↑ → D$ ↑ → e ↑ →                                               depreciate)
                                                                                                                                    ∆YUS
                                   F                                       F                                                                                                               F                            ( F
                                   T
                              ∆Y
                                                   ↓                                                                    F                                                                                                                                                )
                          ∆YUS
                      F                                    F                                                                                                     (                             F                                         )
                          F                                                                                F                                                                       F                                                                             F
             F                             F                                                                                    (                                                                                                                            appreciate
                                                                                                          ∆Y T
                                                   F                                   )(                               ↓ → X ↑ → S$ ↑ → e ↓ →                                                                         appreciate)
                                                                                                          ∆YUS
                                                                                                               F                                                                                                                                     F                       F
                                                                               F                                            F                           F                                                      F F
                                                       F
                 3)                                                                                                                                         (relative price change)



                 F                             F                                                                                            F                                                                                                    F
F                                        F                                                      F       12

                         F                                                             F                                                                                                                                 F                           ( F
                  PT
                                 ↓                                                                                                                        F
                  P US
      )                                      F                                             F                                                                                                                 (                           F                                                      )
                                                     F                                                                                            F                                                                              F
  F                              F                                         F                                                                                                            (
                                                                                                                                                                          T
appreciate                                                                                         F                               )(                                 P
                                                                                                                                                                                   ↓ → X ↑ → S$ ↑ → e ↓ →                                                         appreciate)
                                                                                                                                                                  P US
                             F                                                     F                                                                                                                                         F                             ( F
                                     PT
                                                         ↑                 )                                           F                                      F                                                                                       (                             F
                                 P US
          )                                                  F F                                                   F                                                                                 F                       F F                             F
                                     F                                                         F                           F                                                                                         (
                                                                                                                                                                                  PT
      depreciate                                                                                               F                            )(                                                  ↑ → M ↑ → D$ ↑ → e ↑ →                                                 depreciate)
                                                                                                                                                                                  P US
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                F                           F
                                                                       F                                                                F                         F                                                              F F
                                                 F
          4)                                                       F                                                                F                                              (capital flow)
                                                                                                                               F                (r) F                                                                                                            (i)        F
      (p ) → r = i− p
       &            &

                                                                               F                                                            F                                                            F                                                                                          F
                                                                                                           F                                                                                                     F                               F                                      F
                       F                                                                                                            (r T )                                          F                                                                      ( r US )                                     F
                       (capital inflow)                                                                                                                                       F                                                              F
              F                                                                           F            F                                                                                         F
  F        F                         (                                             appreciate
         F           ) ( r T > r US → capital inflow ↑ → S $ ↑ → e ↓ → appreciation)
             F                          (r T )    F                       ( r US )
                       (capital outflow)              F        F F      F
                 F                    F        FF       F                                     F
    F          F                            (                                            depreciate
                   F     ( r T < r US → capital outflow ↑ → D$ ↑ → e ↑ → depreciate )
      5)                                        F         (speculation)


          F                              F                                                                                                            F                                                                                                                 F
F                               F                                                                    F               13

                                                                                                              F                                     F                                                                                                            F
                                   (                                                                                                                                            : growth rate) ,                                         (p )
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          &

                                F (r)
                                 F                                                        F                                                                         F                                                                                    F
                                                                                                      F                                     ,                                                                               F                        (
            F                                                             )                                   /                                                             F                                       F                                                            F
        F                                           (                                 )                                             /                                                   F
                                            F                        FF                                           F                                                                                     F                                                                    F
    F F                                                     F                                                                                      F                                        F                           F
(                                                                                                                                           depreciate                                                          F                   (




                                                                 ∆Y T
                                                                                  ↑
                                                                ∆YUS                                                            M↑
                                                                PT
                                                    F                ↑
                                                                                                                                                                                                    D$ ↑ → e ↑ →                        depreciate)
                                                                P US
                                                                ( r T < r US ) ↑                              →           capital outflow ↑

                                        F                                                     F                                                                         F                                                                                    F
                                                                              F                           F                                 ,                                                                                   F                    (
    F                                                            )                /                                                             F                                                   F                                            F                       F
                                                                                                  (                                     F               F                                                                           )        /
                        F           F                                                                                                                       F                                               F
                                F                                                                                     F                                                          F                                                                F
                F                               F                                                                          (                                                                                                            appreciate
                            F                                    (
                                                                 ∆Y T
                                                                                  ↓
                                                                ∆YUS                                                            X↑
                                                                PT
                                                    F                ↓
                                                                                                                                                                                                    S$ ↑ → e ↓ →                        appreciate)
                                                                P US
                                                                ( r T > r US ) ↑ → capital inflow ↑

                    6)


                    F                                   F                                                                       F                                                                                                        F
F                                                F                                                                                              F               14

                                                                                                       F                                                                                             (                                                                                                                           F
                                                                                                                                                                ),                                       (                                             F
                                                                                                                                F                                                                                 F                                                                                                      F capital
outflow                                                                   F                        F F                                  F                                                                                                          F
   F                                                                                                                                F               F                                                    F                                                                                 F
                                                                                                                                                                F                F
             F                                    )                                    F
                         F
                                 1) F                                         F                                                                                                                              (
                                                                                                                                                                    F )                                       F                           F
                                     F
                                                                                                                                                                        (balance of payment deficit)
 F                                                        F                                                    F                            F               F F                                                                                                                        F                           F F
 F                                                                                                 /                                                                        F                                                                  F                           F
                                                                                               F                       F                                                    /                                             F                                                        F                               F
                                          F                                                                                (                       F                                                                              F                                                                F                                              F
                     F                                                             )                                           (capital account : CA)                                                                 (                                                                                                           F F
                                                                                  )                        F                                                                                                                          (                            BOP                                                           deficit
→ e ↑ → X ↑, M ↓ → ( X − M) ↑ → CA ↑ → BOP ↑                                                                                                                                     )
                                 2)                                                                                                                                                          F
                                                                      F                                                                                                                                               F                                        F               F                                         F
                                         F F                                      F                                                                                                  F                                                                                 F                                   F                         F
                 F                                    F                                    F                                                                F                                                F                                                                                         F                                      F
         F                                                                                                                                      F                   F                    F                                                    F F F                                                                                      F
                                              F                                                    F
                             F
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           F
     F                                                                                         F F                                                                                                                                    F/                           F                                           F
                                                                  F                             F                                                                                                F

11.2                                                                                                               F


                                 F                            F                                                                                         F                                                                                                                                      F
F            F                                             F           15


                                 (Balance of payment : BOP)                                             F
                                              (economic transactions)                       F   F                     (residents)
                             F         F             F

        F
                                              F 4      F
            1.                     (Current Account : CA)                                                             F
    F            F                   F
                                          F              F
                     .              F (Trade balance account )                                                                                    F
     F                                 F    F     F        F (export of goods)                                                F                           F
(import of goods)
                .                (Net service account)
       F                       F       F        F         (export of services)                                                                        F
          (import of services)                F         F           F
  F                F
          2.                         (Transfer payment account)
                         F                                            F                                         F F
                                                  F
              F                             F                                                                                         F
                           3
          3.                      F (Capital account)
         F (assets)                      F                                                                                                    F

                                                                      (direct investment)                                                 F
(indirect investment)                                                                               F                     F
               F                        F                                  F
           F                                F           F         F            F
  F                                 F               1
        4.                                      F             (International reserve account)
             F                                              F      (monetary gold)        F F

            F            F                                    F                                             F
F                                    F                                               F       16

     F                                                                                   F                                                                   F
                                                             F                   F                           F                                              F
(SDRs)                                                                                               F                           (International Monetary Fund : IMF)
                                                                                                                                                         F

 F                                                                                                                                   F                   (                                                                            )
                                                                         F                   F
                                                                             F                                       F                                               F                                        F                               (
           F                         F                           F                                                   /                   F                                                                F                   F
               F                                                     F                                                                           F               F                                    )
                                                 F                                   (                                       F                                           F )
                                                     4                               F F                                                                                                                              F (Double Bookkeeping
Entry) F                                                                               F                                                     F                            2                                               F       1
    F      1                                                                                                                                                                                  F                                 F        F
  F   F
         F                                                                           F           F                                                                                                                ,                   ,
                                 F
                                                                                                                                                                              F                       (-)

                                                                                                                                                                              F                               (+)


                                                                                                                         F                                                    F                               (+)

                                                                                                                                                                              F                       (-)

                                                         F
                                             F
       1)                                                                                                                                                                 (short-run disequilibrium or cyclical
disequilibrium)
                                                                                                                                                                                      2
                       (1)                                                                                       F                                                                F                                       F
         F ( F                           F                           F )                                 F                                                                                        F                                   F

                   F         F                                                                                                   F                                                                                                F
F                      F                           F   17

                                               F         F               (                  F
                                                                                          F →
            ↓ → X ↓ → ( X − M) ↓ → BOT ↓ → CA ↓ → BOP ↓ ) (                    BOT = Balance of trade
                 F)
              (2)                         F                          F
                    F         F                                        F            F                       F
                                                                                                    (
 YT ↑ → M ↑ → ( X − M) ↓ → BOT ↓ → CA ↓ → BOP ↓ )(                   YT =             F                     )
                      F                       F                            F
    F                             F                                                                   (
CPI T ↑ → P ↑ → X ↓ → ( X − M) ↓ → BOT ↓ → CA ↓ → BOP ↓ )(
               &                                                                 CPI T       = Consumer
price index :                   F                   )
                                        F                                                       F       F
      F     F               F                   F     F                  (        F
  F                                   F F                  F     F F                    F         F
                        )           F                   (      F                              F           F
                                            F     F F                           F F         F F
                          F                               )
        2)                                                   F               (long-run disequilibrium or
structural disequilibrium)

             (1)                                                                                    F                     F
                           F           F                                     F        F                                  (aggregate
demand : AD)                                                                                                (aggregate supply : AS)
           F                       F               F F       (       F                                  F            )       F
         F
 ∆MS ↑ → AD ↑ → AS ( AD ↑> AS ↑) → AD > AS ,
                                                                                          → P ↑ → ( X − M) ↓ → CA ↓ → BOP ↓
∆Cost ↑ → AS ↓ → AD > AS

     ↓             ↑
     P↑→               F
             (2)                                                 F               (fundamental disequilibrium) F
 F                             F                                                                  F       F


         F         F                                         F                                                       F
Ch11 International Finance
Ch11 International Finance
Ch11 International Finance

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Ch11 International Finance

  • 1. F F F 1 11 F 11.1 F (exchange rate) F F F F F F F F F F 39 = $ 1 39 F F F 1 F 1) F F F F F F F 2) F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F 2 1) (fixed exchange rate) F F F 2) F F (flexible or floating exchange rate) F F F (flexible exchange rate) F F F (demand for foreign exchange) (direct determination) F F F F F F F F
  • 2. F F F 2 F (indirect determinations) F F F F F , , F F F (exogenous variable) :$ B 45 40 C A E D$ ″ D$ ′ D$ 0 Q2 Q1 Q3 Q( FF F F ) F F FF F F D$ F F F F (move along the curve on demand curve) F F F ( D$ ) F F F 40 = $ 1 ( F 40 F 1 F ) A F F F F F Q1 45 = $ 1 ( F 45 F 1 F ) F F F F Q2 F B F F F F F F F F FF F F F F F F F F FF F F F F F F F F F (shift demand curve) F F F F F ( F F F F F F F F F F
  • 3. F F F 3 F F , F F F F F , F F F , F F F F F FF F F ) F F F F F F F D$ F D$ ″ ( F F 40 = $ 1 (shift) A E F F F F Q1 Q3) F F F F F ( F F F F F F F F , F F F F F , F F F , F F F F F FF F F ) F F F F F F F F D$ F D$ ′ ( F F 40 = $ 1 (shift) A C F F F F Q1 Q2) F (supply of foreign exchange) (direct determination) F F F F (indirect determinations) F F F F F ( F F F F F , F , F F , F F F F F F ), F F , F F ( F , F ) F (exogenous variable) F F FF F F S$ F F F F (move along the curve on supply curve) F ( S$ ) F F F 40 = $ 1 ( F 40 F 1 F ) A F F F Q1 45 = $ 1 ( F F F F
  • 4. F F F 4 F 45 F 1 F ) F F Q3 F B F F F F F F F F F F F F S$ F F :$B ′ ″ S$ S$ S$ 45 B C A E 40 0 Q2 Q1 Q3 Q( F F ) F F F F F F (shift supply curve) F F F F F F F / F F F F / F F F / F F F F / F F F F F F , F F F F F F , F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F S$ F F F F
  • 5. F F F 5 F S$ ″ ( F F 40 = $ 1 (shift) A E F F Q1 Q3) F F F F F F F / F F F F / F F F / F F F F / F F F F F F , F F F F F F , F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F S$ F S$ ′ ( F F 40 = $ 1 (shift) A C F F Q1 Q2) (equilibrium exchange rate) F F F (demand for foreign exchange)) F (supply of foreign exchange) F F F F F F :$B S$ E 40 D$ 0 QE Q( F :$) F F F F
  • 6. F F F 6 F E FF F F F QE 40 = $ 1 F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F S$ F S$ ′ F ( F F F ) :$B ′ E′ S$ S$ 41 A E 40 D$ 0 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q( F :$) F 40 = $ 1 (shift) E A F F Q1 Q3 F F F F F EA ( Q1Q3 ) F F F 40 = $ 1 41 = $ 1 F F F F E E′ F A E′ F F F F F Q2 F E′ F F 41 = $ 1 F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F S$ F S$ ′ F ( F F ) F F F F
  • 7. F F F 7 :$ S$ ′ E S$ 41 A E′ 40 D$ 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q( F :$) F 41 = $ 1 (shift) E A F F Q1 Q3 F F F EA ( Q1Q3 ) F F F 41 = $ 1 40 = $ 1 F F A E′ F F F F F F F E E′ F F F F F Q2 F E′ F F 40 = $ 1 F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F ( ) F ( F F F ) F F F F
  • 8. F F F 8 :$ S$ E′ 41 E A 40 / D$ D$ 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q( F :$) F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F ( ) F ( F F ) F - appreciate F F ( F ) F ( ) ( F F ) F F F 40 = $1 35 = $ 1 F F ( 40 35 ) F F (1 F ) F - depreciate F F ( F ) F ( ) ( F F ) F F F 40 =$1 45 = $ 1 F F ( 40 45 ) F F (1 F ) F F F F ( F ) F ( F F ) F F F F F F
  • 9. F F F 9 ( F F) F F ( F ) F F F ( F F F) - revaluation F F FF ( F ) F ( F F ) F F F F 40 = $1 F 1 = $ 40 (1 1 F F 1 40 F ) F F 35 = $ 1 F 1=$ 1 35 ( 1 F F 1 35 F ) F F F F F F ( F F ) F 40 = $ 1 35 = $ 1 F ( F F ) - devaluation F F F F ( F ) F ( F F ) F F F F 40 = $1 F 1 = $ 40 (1 1 F F 1 40 F ) F F 45 = $ 1 F 1=$ 1 45 ( 1 F F 1 45 F ) F F F F F F ( F F ) F 40 = $ 1 45 = $ 1 F ( F F ) F F F ( F ) F ( F F ) F F F F ( F F) ( F 40 = $1 35 = $ 1 ) F F ( F) F F F ( F F) ( F 40 = $ 1 45 = $ 1 ) F F ( ) F F F F F F F 35 =F $ 1 F appreciate F revaluation F
  • 10. F F F 10 F F F F F F F ( ) F ( F F) F F F F 40 = $ 1=$ 1 1=$ 1 45 = $ 1 40 1 35 ( 40 = $1 35 = $ 1) F F F F F 40 = $ 1 45 = $ 1 F F (depreciate) F F F (devaluation ) F F F F 40 = $ 1 35 = $ 1 F F (appreciate) F F F (revaluation) F F (indirect determination) (exogenous variable) F F F F F
  • 11. F F F 11 (shift) F FF F / F F F F 1) F F (change in taste) F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F ( depreciate F ) ( F F ↑ → M ↑ → D$ ↑ → e ↑ → depreciate) F F F F F F F F F F F F ( appreciate F )( F F ↑ → X ↑ → S $ ↑ → e ↓ → appreciate) 2) F (relative income change) F F F ( F ∆Y T ↑ ) F F ( F ) ∆YUS F F F F F F F F F F ( ∆Y T depreciate F )( ↑ → M ↑ → D$ ↑ → e ↑ → depreciate) ∆YUS F F F ( F T ∆Y ↓ F ) ∆YUS F F ( F ) F F F F F F ( appreciate ∆Y T F )( ↓ → X ↑ → S$ ↑ → e ↓ → appreciate) ∆YUS F F F F F F F F F 3) (relative price change) F F F F
  • 12. F F F 12 F F F ( F PT ↓ F P US ) F F ( F ) F F F F F F ( T appreciate F )( P ↓ → X ↑ → S$ ↑ → e ↓ → appreciate) P US F F F ( F PT ↑ ) F F ( F P US ) F F F F F F F F F F ( PT depreciate F )( ↑ → M ↑ → D$ ↑ → e ↑ → depreciate) P US F F F F F F F F 4) F F (capital flow) F (r) F (i) F (p ) → r = i− p & & F F F F F F F F F (r T ) F ( r US ) F (capital inflow) F F F F F F F F ( appreciate F ) ( r T > r US → capital inflow ↑ → S $ ↑ → e ↓ → appreciation) F (r T ) F ( r US ) (capital outflow) F F F F F F FF F F F F ( depreciate F ( r T < r US → capital outflow ↑ → D$ ↑ → e ↑ → depreciate ) 5) F (speculation) F F F F
  • 13. F F F 13 F F F ( : growth rate) , (p ) & F (r) F F F F F , F ( F ) / F F F F ( ) / F F FF F F F F F F F F F ( depreciate F ( ∆Y T ↑ ∆YUS M↑ PT F ↑ D$ ↑ → e ↑ → depreciate) P US ( r T < r US ) ↑ → capital outflow ↑ F F F F F F , F ( F ) / F F F F ( F F ) / F F F F F F F F F F ( appreciate F ( ∆Y T ↓ ∆YUS X↑ PT F ↓ S$ ↑ → e ↓ → appreciate) P US ( r T > r US ) ↑ → capital inflow ↑ 6) F F F F
  • 14. F F F 14 F ( F ), ( F F F F capital outflow F F F F F F F F F F F F F ) F F 1) F F ( F ) F F F (balance of payment deficit) F F F F F F F F F F / F F F F F / F F F F ( F F F F F ) (capital account : CA) ( F F ) F ( BOP deficit → e ↑ → X ↑, M ↓ → ( X − M) ↑ → CA ↑ → BOP ↑ ) 2) F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F F/ F F F F F 11.2 F F F F F
  • 15. F F F 15 (Balance of payment : BOP) F (economic transactions) F F (residents) F F F F F 4 F 1. (Current Account : CA) F F F F F F . F (Trade balance account ) F F F F F F (export of goods) F F (import of goods) . (Net service account) F F F F (export of services) F (import of services) F F F F F 2. (Transfer payment account) F F F F F F F F 3 3. F (Capital account) F (assets) F F (direct investment) F (indirect investment) F F F F F F F F F F F F 1 4. F (International reserve account) F F (monetary gold) F F F F F F
  • 16. F F F 16 F F F F F F F (SDRs) F (International Monetary Fund : IMF) F F F ( ) F F F F F F ( F F F / F F F F F F F ) F ( F F ) 4 F F F (Double Bookkeeping Entry) F F F 2 F 1 F 1 F F F F F F F F , , F F (-) F (+) F F (+) F (-) F F 1) (short-run disequilibrium or cyclical disequilibrium) 2 (1) F F F F ( F F F ) F F F F F F F
  • 17. F F F 17 F F ( F F → ↓ → X ↓ → ( X − M) ↓ → BOT ↓ → CA ↓ → BOP ↓ ) ( BOT = Balance of trade F) (2) F F F F F F F ( YT ↑ → M ↑ → ( X − M) ↓ → BOT ↓ → CA ↓ → BOP ↓ )( YT = F ) F F F F F ( CPI T ↑ → P ↑ → X ↓ → ( X − M) ↓ → BOT ↓ → CA ↓ → BOP ↓ )( & CPI T = Consumer price index : F ) F F F F F F F F ( F F F F F F F F F ) F ( F F F F F F F F F F F ) 2) F (long-run disequilibrium or structural disequilibrium) (1) F F F F F F (aggregate demand : AD) (aggregate supply : AS) F F F F ( F F ) F F ∆MS ↑ → AD ↑ → AS ( AD ↑> AS ↑) → AD > AS , → P ↑ → ( X − M) ↓ → CA ↓ → BOP ↓ ∆Cost ↑ → AS ↓ → AD > AS ↓ ↑ P↑→ F (2) F (fundamental disequilibrium) F F F F F F F F F