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2. Asia and the New World Order
The Menu
How the epicenter of the world economy is shifting towards Asia
Milestones in this development
The China factor
Integrating Asia - New trade routes are shaping the world economy
Challenges (the risks going forward)
Still lots of room to grow
Where do I invest in Asia ? – Best locations for Business
Dessert: The 5 corners of China
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

3. How the epicenter
of the world economy
is shifting towards Asia
1
Asia and the New World Order

4. 94
100
106
112
118
124
130
June 2008 June 2009 June 2010
India
Brazil
Turkey
US
Emerging Markets are Producing
Above Their Pre-Crisis Levels
Index: June 2007 = 100
June 2007
China
Eurozone

8. Company Year Volume –
bn. dollars
Country
Agricultural Bank
of China
2010 22,10 China
ICBC 2006 21,97 China
Visa Inc. 2008 19,65 USA
NTT Mobile 1998 18,05 Japan
Enel SpA 1999 16,59 Italy
Nippon Telegraph 1986 13,75 Japan
Deutsche Telekom 1996 12,49 Germany
Bank of China 2006 11,19 China
Dai-ichi Life 2010 11,16 Japan
Rosneft Oil 2006 10,66 Russia
ASIA TOTAL 98 of 157 bn. =62,3% of the
volume
World´s
largest
IPOs
Source: FORBES

9. Largest Forex Trading
Countries
Share of
World Market
Growth in %
Jan. 2007 – Apr. 2010
UK 36,7% +24,9%
U.S. 17,9% +21.4%
Japan 6,2% +24,8%
Singapore 5,3% +10%
Switzerland 5,2% +3,5%
Hong Kong 4,7% +31,2%
Australia 3,8% +8,9%
France 3,0% +19,5%
Denmark 2,4% +36,6%
Germany 2,1% +7,1%

10. Commercial Real Estate: Asia Pacific
taking the lead in global transactions

11. US Eurozone Japan Asia China India
0
10
20
30
40
Share of
World´s Total Consumption
2000
2009
Asia and Eurozone with a Growing
Share of the World´s Consumption
34,7%
28,8%
18,2%
20,6%
13,3%
8,6%
8,9%
11,6%
2,8%
5,0%
1,6%
2,2%
Sources: IMF, UBS
In Percent

12. Europe France Germany Japan UKChina0
4
8
12
16
20
-4
-8
-12
China´s innovators
are escaping the crisis
Y-o-y change in patent registrations in Percent
2008 2009
18,2
8,5
3,8
-7,9
-2,4 -3,6
2,3
-4,5
-1,3
-10,8
-6,5
-3,9
Source:World Intellectual Property Indicators 2010
Global R&D Center Shifting East

15. Milestones in this Development2
Asia and the New World Order

17. Milestones
Asia and the New World Order
China surpassing Germany as the leading export power (2009)
China overtaking the U.S. as the largest car market (2009)
China becomes no. 2 economy ahead of Japan (1Q2010)
China is now the leading investor in renewable energy sources
China now the world´s largest wind market (after doubling capacity in 2008)
China passes the U.S. as the world´s biggest energy user (2009)
China now registers most of the global IPOs
China now the largest English-speaking nation (2010) – 300 million

18. Global Forex
Reserves
- Q4 of each
year
Total
in bn
dollars
Indus-
trialized
countries
EM World
Share of
EM
Holdings
2001 2.049 1.245 803 39,2%
2002 2.407 1.442 965 40,1%
2003 3.025 1.765 1.259 41,6%
2004 3.748 2.068 1.679 44,8%
2005 4.320 2.076 2.243 51,9%
2006 5.251 2.249 3.001 57,2%
2007 6.699 2.429 4.270 63,7%
2008 7.337 2.487 4.850 66,1%
2009 8.165 2.775 5.390 66,0%
2010 / Q1 8.295 2.824 5.471 65,9%
Growth in %
2001-2010
404,8% 226,8% 681,3
%
Source: IMF
http://www.imf.org/external/
np/sta/cofer/eng/cofer.pdf
2005:
For the first time ever
EM are holding more
forex reserves than the
„West“, and more than
50 % of the world´s
reserves
2001-2010:
EM reserves grow by
681 % / In the West it´s
„only“ 226 % - EM now
holding 65% of global
forex reserves

19. Europe Outstripped by Asia
in Building the Future
10
20
30
40
50
Asia Europe U.S. China Germany
35.7
41.4
31.9
28.4
23.2
20.3
14.0
20.1
4.6
4.0
2002
2007
Asia represents more and more of
the world´s researchers
R&D
Hub
United States
Germany
Europe
China
Asia
2,000 4,000 6,000
Researchers
per million
Inhabitants
Weighted Numbers
The UNESCO´s „Global Perspective On Research And Development“
shows Asia winning the race for the most R&D Brains
Asia represented 41.4% of world researchers in 2007, vs. 28.4 in
Europe and 25.8 in the Americas – Asia´s rise fueled by China
0

20. The China Factor3
Asia and the New World Order

22. London
Shanghai
Beijing
Tokyo
Hong Kong
Hangzhou
Paris
Tianjin
New York
Suzhou
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10 15 20 25 30
26,3
Billion USD
25,9
23,9
21,4
20,3
13,8
13,3
12,8
12,4
11,9
Total Turnover, including all deals
with at least 10 million dollars
since September 2009
The World´s Top Real Estate Places
Six Chinese cities are among the Top 10 locations with the Highest Turnover
Quelle: Real Capital Analytics

25. How much does China contribute to
the growth of various countries ?

28. Source: Airports Council International

30. 10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
08
2009 2010
09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
13,4
13,7
16,5
17,8
18,1
20,720,7
18,5
19,2
16,1
13,9
12,3
China Holding Up Well
Industrial production keeps growing
at rates above 13%
even though loans are restricted and Beijing
is tightening the the real estate market
Change in % y-o-y Source: Li & Fung Group
The Relentless Dragon
09
13,9
13,3

31. Latest on CHINA
World Bank

33. Integrating Asia - New trade routes
are shaping the world economy
4
Asia and the New World Order

35. Source: U.S. Commerce Department

36. Challenges (the risks going forward)5
Asia and the New World Order

37. Asia and the New World Order
Risks going Forward
1 Massive capital inflows as a result of Fed easing – World Bank: „Rising Risks“
2 Rising income gaps
3 Weakening of the traditional family
4 Greying societies
5 Massive environmental degradation
6 Challenges to authoritarian rule
7 Strategic rivalry between China, India and Japan / ASEAN
8 Scarcity of commodities – Food security, energy imports (ADB)
9 A possible setback in China
10 Will the transformation from export-led economies to strong domestic markets
work ? (IMF)

39. Wage growth
accelerating ....

40. Lots of room to grow6
Asia and the New World Order

47. Where do I invest in Asia ?
Best locations for Business7
Asia and the New World Order

51. Corruption Perceptions
Index 2009 /
Corruption in the civil
service sector
Ranking
in 2009
0 = Totally corrupt
10 = no corruption
Singapore 3 9,2
Hong Kong 12 8,2
Japan 17 7,7
Taiwan 37 5,6
South Korea 39 5,5
Malaysia 56 4,5
China 79 3,6
India 84 3,4
Thailand 84 3,4
Indonesia 111 2,8
Vietnam 120 2,7
Philippines 139 2,4
Source: Transparency International -
www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2009/cpi_2009_table

52. The Global
Competitiveness
Index 2009–
2010
Position/
Ranking
in 2009/2010
Position
in prior year
Singapore 3 5
Japan 8 9
Hong Kong 11 11
Taiwan 12 17
South Korea 19 13
Malaysia 24 21
China 29 30
Thailand 36 34
India 49 50
Indonesia 54 55
Vietnam 75 70
Philippines 87 71
Source: World Economic Forum - WEF -
www.weforum.org/pdf/GCR09/GCR20092010fullrankings.pdf

53. Top Asian countries
in the Index
South Korea
India
Japan
Indonesia
China
OECD
FDI Restrictiveness
Index 2010
Singapore & Hong Kong no OECD members
Neither are India, Indonesia and China

56. The 5 Corners of China8
Asia and the New World Order

57. Patience
Guanxi
The LawHòu mén
Face
The Five Corners
of China

59. Asia and the New World Order
Sources for this presentation
1 You find the presentation at – www.slideshare.net/markusgaertner/asia-driving-the-global-economy
2 Doing Business 2011 - www.doingbusiness.org/reports/doing-business/doing-business-2011
3 BASF „Doing Business in China“ - www.trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/july/tradoc_129277.pdf
4 The Path to 2050 / Goldman Sachs - http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/book/99-dreaming.pdf
5 IMF Global Forex Reserves - www.imf.org/external/np/sta/cofer/eng/cofer.pdf
6 World´s largest IPOs - www.forbes.com/2010/06/22/biggest-ipo-china-markets-equities-agbank_slide_4.html
7 Real Capital Analytics - www.rcanalytics.com/abouttrendstrades.aspx
8 IMF – World Economic Outlook - www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2006/02/index.htm
9 World Intellectual Property Indicators -
www.wipo.int/export/sites/www/ipstats/en/statistics/patents/pdf/941_2010.pdf
10 World Development Indicators / WB – www.data.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/wdi-final.pdf
11 World Energy Outlook 2010 / IEA - www.worldenergyoutlook.org/
12 IMF Regional Economic Outlook – Asia and the Pacific, October 2010 -
www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2010/apd/eng/areo1010.htm
13 UNESCO Science Report 2010 - www.unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0018/001898/189883E.pdf
14 A Global Perspective on Research and Development -
www.unesco.org/science/psd/wsd07/Fact_Sheet_2009.pdf
15 World Federation of Exchanges – Key Market Figures - www.world-exchanges.org/statistics/key-market-figures
16 World Wealth Report 2010, Cap Gemini - www.capgemini.com/services-and-solutions/by-industry/financial-
services/solutions/wealth/worldwealthreport/
17 Li & Fung Group – Research Center, Hong Kong - www.lifunggroup.com/research/research01.htm