Lecture at Wageningen University

1. ICES Advisory practice: shaping the boundary between science and policy Martin Pastoors 23 November 2009 FNP-21806 Policy for Natural Resource Management: Models and Trends

2. A sea full of life and activity

3. How to maintain sustainable fishing?

4. The role of ICES as a knowledge provider....

5. ... and the boundary between science and policy Science Policy

6. ICES To advance the scientific capacity to give advice on human activities affecting, and affected by, marine ecosystems.

7. Advisory “space”

10. 1. Fisheries advisory and policy-landscape in Europe

11. Fisheries advisory / decision process

12. Disproportionate advisory capacity in the European Commission?

13. ICES 2005 annual input & output

14. “ cod science” input and output

15. cod science quality assessment

16. ICES advice structure Working Group Review Group Advice drafting group Advisory Committee

18. Example: textual arguments in North Sea Cod advice http://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/press_corner/pictures/north_sea_cod_en.jpg

25. Advisory report highly technical

26. ICES website also technical

27. “ Explaining” advice with 3 key terms Credibility Salience Legitimacy Scientific plausibility Relevant and useable Unbiased, meeting standards

28. 2. The TAC machine

29. TAC Machine?

30. © Bygdeforskning Artist: Bjarne Stenberg The Cyborg fish: chain of standardizations allow stock assessments and TAC forecasts http://www.cyborg-fish.net/

31. “ TAC Machine”

32. The TAC Machine requires VPA

35. TAC Machine? ICES Herring Working Group 1996

36. 3. ICES and the precautionary approach

37. The precautionary approach and the boundary between science and policy Science Policy

42. MBAL can be reconstituted in the precautionary approach MBAL Precautionary biomass

44. ICES struggle with the precautionary approach 1997 1998 1998 2001 2002 2003 2007 Study Group on the Precautionary Approach (1) Study Group on the Precautionary Approach (2) ACFM 1998 Study Group on the Further Development of the Precautionary Approach (1) Study Group on the Further Development of the Precautionary Approach (2 + 3) Study Group on the Precautionary Reference Points for Advice (SGPRP) Study Group on the Biological Reference Points for North east Artic Cod (SGBRP) 2003 Workshop on Target and Limit reference points (WKREF)

45. So what is this beast called “precautionary approach”?

49. Preliminary closure in 1998: defining the reference values

50. Preliminary closure in 1998: reasoning behind the values Blim -> Bpa

52. ... and the new ACFM presentation Example: Cod in the North Sea

53. Attempts to apply rule-based decision systems in ICES (2001)

54. Further developments 2001-2003: attempts to be more systematic Segmented regression to define Blim Method to derive other ref. points

59. Garcia & Charles: combining a science-based analytical process with a negotiation-based decision-making process

60. Wageningen UR, Centre for Marine Policy P.O.Box 1528 8901 BV Leeuwarden, the Netherlands phone +31 317 487 849 mobile +31 610 939 549 Email [email_address] Internet www.cmp.wur.nl Blog martinpastoors.blogspot.com/ Twitter @martinpastoors or @marinepolicy LinkedIn nl.linkedin.com/in/martinpastoors