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1 | P a g e | I n f o r m a t i o n ’ s R o l e i n D i s r u p t i o n s a n d t h e
E x p l o i t a t i o n o f “ t h e T i p p i n g P o i n t ”
By Mark Albala, InfoSight Partners
ABSTRACT
“The Tipping Point”, written in 2000 prior to the digital economy, described a means for forging
disruptions through the exploitation of information. Having a keen understanding of the information
you have at your disposal and a keen awareness of the attempted disruptions through viral social
media and other means is critical for survival in the digital economy. This writing will go over what
the tipping point is, how information aligns to the tipping point in the digital economy and what
organizations must do now to survive disruptive attempts to dethrone their products and services in
the digital economy.
2 | P a g e | I n f o r m a t i o n ’ s R o l e i n D i s r u p t i o n s a n d t h e
E x p l o i t a t i o n o f “ t h e T i p p i n g P o i n t ”
Introduction
In 2000, The Tipping Point was written by Malcolm Gladwell. It provided a framework for how and why
small changes can result in great impacts in the marketplace. It further defined the magic formula for
instituting a tipping point to influence the market in one’s favor. However, The Tipping Point was
written prior to the existence of a thriving digital economy, where Facebook, Youtube, Snapchat,
Google, Yelp, TripAdvisor and other sites provide a venue for launching content capable of serving up
conditions ripe for a tipping point. They can equally serve up market turbulence to the benefit of no one.
It is no longer feasible for organizations to put their head in the sand and presume that they are
protected from any attempts through video, customer reviews because of the solid relationship they
have with their customer base. It is also no surprise that video is the fastest growing form of media
intended to influence consumers, with an increase of ad spend from 2.4% of total spend dedicated to
video in 2013 to 4.4% of total spend in 2015 (eMarketer study, 2015).
By understanding how the tipping point works and how clues to tipping points can be recognized from
within the platforms participating in your digital events and those outside your digital ecosphere within
social media (Facebook, Youtube, Snapchat, Yelp, Tripadvisor, etc.) and other digital sites, you can thrive
in the digital economy.
Disrupted Broadcasting
The music, photographic and video broadcasting video broadcasting industries have been disrupted
through the wide availability of digital services. This example focuses on the video broadcasting
industries, but a similar case could be made for the music and photography industries (Columbia house
could serve as a good example of the disruption of the music industry, and Kodak could serve as a good
example of the disruption in the photographic industry).
It is also no surprise that the video media has been disrupted, from core broadcasters (NBC, ABC, CBS) to
Cable (HBO, Showtime, Disney, CNN, etc.) and now to internet supplied broadcasters (Sling TV, Netflix,
Hulu, YouTube, Amazon, etc.), where the consumer has been thrust through a series of disruptions
which provided greater control of media outlets, the cost of subscriptions and the portability of their
subscriptions across the myriad of devices in their digital ecosphere. The advent of cable and the
accessibility of everywhere available internet connectivity have provided the necessary ingredients to
disrupt broadcasting. This series of disruptions have impacted most the revenue model of media
carriers because of the ever-increased number of channels which can be used to carry an advertisement.
Because the choices have increased, the ad revenue per minute has come under downward pressure. In
2013, internet based advertising ($42.8 Billion) surpassed broadcast revenue ($40.1 Billion) for the first
time, with digital video advertising growing at 19% annually (IAB, 2013).
It is exactly because information is the thing that is wielded in the music, photography and video
broadcasting industries that makes the ability to wield tipping points through information in the digital
3 | P a g e | I n f o r m a t i o n ’ s R o l e i n D i s r u p t i o n s a n d t h e
E x p l o i t a t i o n o f “ t h e T i p p i n g P o i n t ”
economy such a powerful concept. But we first must understand exactly what a disruption is and how it
manifests itself to be able to wield information to through tipping points to exploit it.
What is a disruption?
A disruption is something which provides a sufficiently greater benefit than the cost associated that
makes it worthwhile for a consumer to consciously take action to shift their consumption of certain
goods or services in favor of another. An example of a disruptive service is the Vonage phone service,
which uses the internet in virtually all homes to displace the more traditional phone services available
from the more traditional phone companies. In the case of Vonage, their inclusion of international
service and bundling of mobile access to Vonage services outweighs the tried and true phone service
from phone companies. Many have eliminated a home phone number all together and only utilize
mobile phone service, this too is a disruption to the phone companies.
Such actions require a change to the business models for participants in the marketplace. For those who
have adopted Vonage or who have decided to eliminate their home phone service all together, a
discounted service from the traditional carriers would likely be unsuccessful. Therefore, it is the
business models and the value propositions and processes and assumptions supporting those value
propositions that require retrofitting to a new marketplace, which in the case of our example, includes
Vonage and no home phone service competing with legacy landline carriers.
Other noted disruptions are those, like the iPod as a device used for utilizing digitally stored music,
forever changing the music market and the core of assumptions used in the business models of
participants selling music. Columbia House, a club devised to sell music media, was displaced in the
market by digital music and the displacement of much of the need for owning music media.
In the case of the iPod, music was easily acquired digitally and stored digitally on a small easy to use
device with much larger capacities than their analog brethren (CDs, Walkman devices, etc.) and both
displaced the need to acquire whole albums of music rather than only acquiring desired songs.
What is a “tipping point”?
According to Malcolm Gladwell (The Tipping Point, 2000), a tipping point is a moment where a trend,
idea or social event tips into the limelight and spreads like wildfire. A tipping point can impact the
behavior of consumers if the message positively or negatively impact their impression of the digital
identity of the supplier. In the digital economy, a successful tipping point infects the potential digital
consumers with a change of attitude beneficial to the outcome of digital commerce opportunities of the
supplier. However, an unsuccessful tipping point or conflicting attempts to influence a customer can
result in nothing more than turbulence, which generally muddies the waters of the digital commerce
opportunities of all digital market participants.
The tipping point agents are:
4 | P a g e | I n f o r m a t i o n ’ s R o l e i n D i s r u p t i o n s a n d t h e
E x p l o i t a t i o n o f “ t h e T i p p i n g P o i n t ”
• The law of the few is a description of how a handful of influencers through their actions make a
big difference. An influencer is an independent voice that influences the actions of others.
Early adopters are normally influencers. Crossing the Chasm (Geoffrey Moore, 1979) describes
the process of the early majority being influenced by early adopters. The tipping point describes
the point where the effort that influence is eased.
• The stickiness factor. Stickiness in the digital economy is the ability for a message to be so
memorable or influential that it compels action by a consumer. An extremely sticky message in
the digital economy is one that goes viral.
• The power of context. Context provides the potential consumer in the digital economy the
necessary information to understand the conditions and circumstances of how they could
benefit from the tipping point so that they could decide whether the benefits of adoption
outweigh the costs of conversion.
Social media changes the game because it is easier to launch tipping points through the likes of Youtube,
Facebook and other environments that did not exist when The Tipping Point was written.
Social media is an environment where the ingredients for launching a tipping point are put within reach
of anyone if executed properly, making it much easier to engage influencers for the purpose of creating
and navigating a tipping point. According a 2009 Yankelovich study, 76% of people believe that
advertisers lie. They will represent their version beneficial to the advertiser whether or not there was
fact backing up the advertisement. However, according to an April 2009 global Neilsen Online Global
consumer study, influencers, who are independent from the advertiser, do not suffer from the same
expected position of non-truth that advertisers portray. It is through social media that the word of
influencers can reach potential consumers independently from suppliers or advertisers.
However, if the independence is not believed in the social media post, the impact could be viewed as
another source of advertising, potentially eroding customer value rather than the intended impact.
Turbulence is a situation where multiple tipping points bombard the consumer thereby confusing the
consumer, resulting in neither having the intended impact but both impacting the marketplace in a
rather haphazard way.
Using Antview concepts (Antview.com, 1999), through social media, if a tipping point is going to be
successful, it is the job of the supplier:
• Engage influencers (creators, critics and editors, connectors and collectors) with the necessary
context to independently influence the marketplace
• and monitor and measure the impact influencers have in influencing the remainder of the
potential consumers in the marketplace (spectators and inactives).
• It is the responsibility of the supplier to continually monitor the impact of influencers and adjust
the content provided to them to create the intended tipping point and not create turbulence
instead of a tipping point.
5 | P a g e | I n f o r m a t i o n ’ s R o l e i n D i s r u p t i o n s a n d t h e
E x p l o i t a t i o n o f “ t h e T i p p i n g P o i n t ”
• The overall activity and impact of the influencers should be monitored throughout the social
media campaign.
Figure 1 Antview concepts, 1999
What is a disruption cycle?
A disruption cycle is the cycle that a disruption either through the introduction of an innovation or other
means will have on the marketplace. Disruptions will follow four phases before resulting in a new
market equilibrium, these being:
• The period where a disruption is identified and market participants each individually determine
their reaction to the disruption and executed their reaction plans in the marketplace.
• The big bang, which is when the individual reaction plans are thwarted on the marketplace each
having an impact. Collectively, the market will react to both the disruption and the actions of
the market participants. There is a window of opportunity available to market participants,
actions either of insufficient magnitude or out of phase with the frequency of the disruption will
have no impact on the marketplace. The big bang is a period of an instable but rapidly
expanding market as market participants quickly try to benefit from the disruption.
• The big crunch, which is the period where the market has taken some action and the trajectory
of the market begins to be visible. The disruptor begins to enter a mature steady state and
others who have taken action during the big bang phase of the disruption either react to the
new but smaller marketplace or get consolidated out of the market.
• Finally, the disruption dissipates into a new market equilibrium.
A tipping point is akin to a stone thrown into the disruption wave, causing ripples in the disruption wave.
A small tipping point in a massive disruption wave is quickly dissipated because of the magnitude of the
disruption wave, however if timed properly, could benefit the originator of the tipping point by
impacting the disruption wave in their favor.
6 | P a g e | I n f o r m a t i o n ’ s R o l e i n D i s r u p t i o n s a n d t h e
E x p l o i t a t i o n o f “ t h e T i p p i n g P o i n t ”
• An example of a successful tipping point is a disruptor launching a social media campaign to
accelerate the frequency of a disruption wave.
Figure 2 The disruption cycle, InfoSight Partners, 2017
How “tipping points” impact disruption cycles?
Tipping points are ripples in a disruption cycle. They slightly alter the frequency, magnitude and
direction of a disruption wave. The timing of tipping points is critical. They can move edge dwellers of a
disruption cycle in and out of the cycle. An understanding the current positioning of a disruption cycle is
critical information for successful execution and survival of tipping points.
Your perception of where you reside in a disruption cycle is critical. That means if you are an edge
dweller and execute a tipping point you stand an equal chance of navigating yourself into the disruption
wave or outside of the disruption cycle, the outcome is totally dependent on the accuracy of your
perception. A sea of turbulence caused by the disruption cycle is all that is visible from the edge of the
disruption cycle prior to the tipping point.
How does information factor into disruption cycles and tipping points?
If one finds themselves outside of the disruption cycle or desires to push some market participants
outside of the disruption cycle, then the proper use of tipping points can ultimately yield the desired
benefit. However, in order to orchestrate, those enlisting the use of tipping points must have the
necessary information to monitor the impact of their tipping point attempts to ascertain if the outcome
is one that is desired. Should it not be, turbulence can be expected, which blurs the boundaries of the
tipping point and further complicates the successful navigation through a disruption cycle.
7 | P a g e | I n f o r m a t i o n ’ s R o l e i n D i s r u p t i o n s a n d t h e
E x p l o i t a t i o n o f “ t h e T i p p i n g P o i n t ”
The information required has many components which must be executed in tandem to be effective.
These components are:
• A keen understanding of the business models, including the assumptions, key processes and
information supporting the business model, all of which will be used as key components of
navigating both a disruption cycle and the tipping point.
• A keen understanding of the disruption cycle and the impact on the assumptions and processes
devised to achieve a value proposition within a business model. There will most probably be an
equal distribution of organizations wo perceive the impact of a disruption because they are
perceiving he disruption without being armed with a full complement of available information.
In the digital economy, information will be made available from your internal systems, the logs
created through your internal systems and your digital and mobile channels, the logs created by
the platforms handling components of your digital ecosystem and the social media which
influences participants in your digital content or commerce. Using information to fine tune
perception about the disruption cycle is critical for navigating a tipping point correctly.
• The current phase of the disruption cycle, namely whether the cycle is discovery waiting for
market correction reactions, the big bang, the big crunch or dissipating into a new equilibrium.
• The anticipated impact of a tipping point, analyzed in preparation of launching a tipping point
through models of the marketplace. The greater the self-learning autonomous capabilities a
model has, the more precise adjustment criteria can be in steering a tipping point and any
turbulence strategies to the benefit of the organization.
• Metrics to measure the success of the overall navigation process as a means of improving the
execution of the models and the reaction time of the organization.
Example 1 | Apple
Apple has been one of the companies who have been most successful and copied for using social media,
allowing the media to postulate the features of future releases of technology and, although never
proven, launching leaks to the influencers as a means of using social media to launch tipping points to
derive the market to their benefit.
Apple has used this strategy on an annual basis for the iPad, the iPod, the iPhone, Apple TV and a host of
other products too numerous to mention. In 2008, Apple sold 60 million Apps for the iPhone within 1
month of its introduction, and became the third largest handset supplier in the world due to the
popularity of the iPhone. Apple successfully utilizes early adopters and “leaked” specs and other
information about impending product launches as a vehicle to engage early adopters to virally spread
information. This activity is specifically intended to influence the markets and create buzz for the new
products, which also results in turbulence for everyone but Apple.
In 2010, Apple used the same strategy for the launch of the iPad, and more than 300,000 iPads were
sold on the first day they were available and 500,000 in the first introductory week.
8 | P a g e | I n f o r m a t i o n ’ s R o l e i n D i s r u p t i o n s a n d t h e
E x p l o i t a t i o n o f “ t h e T i p p i n g P o i n t ”
Example 2 | Cyber-Monday
Shop.Org launched the concept of Cyber-Monday in 2005 to disrupt the traditional Black Friday with
eCommerce sales, or the date that traditional brick and mortar retailers become profitable for the year.
The concept was based on Tony Valado’s 2003 White Wednesday day, to sell flowers from
1800Flowers.com before florists could sell Thanksgiving flowers. The concept of Cyber-Monday survived
and represents approximately $3.5 Billion of the holiday season sales on an annual basis, of course at
the expense of sales occurring on Black Friday. The growth of Cyber Monday has been phenomenal,
from $610 Million on November 26th
, 2008 to $3.450 Billion on November 29, 2016, a five-fold increase
since 2006.
Example 3 | Shopping Malls
Shopping malls have been on a decline for years with the advent of the digital economy, but there is the
matter of the real estate and what to do with it that is of extreme importance to the owners of the
shopping malls.
A recent phenomenon has been occurring to transform the shopping mall from a place to shop to a
center for entertainment, which houses the best restaurants, a myriad of entertainment opportunities,
the largest cinema outlets and a host of other visionary changes to the definition of the shopping mall to
maintain its viability.
For example, aside from shopping venues, the Mall of America has a full-blown amusement park in the
mall.
Figure 3 Mall of America amusement park
9 | P a g e | I n f o r m a t i o n ’ s R o l e i n D i s r u p t i o n s a n d t h e
E x p l o i t a t i o n o f “ t h e T i p p i n g P o i n t ”
About the Author
Mark Albala is the President of InfoSight Partners, L.L.C. Mark has
served in a variety of information strategy, architecture and
governance roles and has been an influential futurist in defining
ways in which information could be wielded, and has been an
active advocate of the disciplines of information economics and the
acceptance and management of information as an organizational
asset. Mark currently serves as an advisor to companies and
analysts. Mark can be reached at mark@infosightpartners.com.

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Information's role in disruption cycles and the exploitation of tipping points

  • 1. 1 | P a g e | I n f o r m a t i o n ’ s R o l e i n D i s r u p t i o n s a n d t h e E x p l o i t a t i o n o f “ t h e T i p p i n g P o i n t ” By Mark Albala, InfoSight Partners ABSTRACT “The Tipping Point”, written in 2000 prior to the digital economy, described a means for forging disruptions through the exploitation of information. Having a keen understanding of the information you have at your disposal and a keen awareness of the attempted disruptions through viral social media and other means is critical for survival in the digital economy. This writing will go over what the tipping point is, how information aligns to the tipping point in the digital economy and what organizations must do now to survive disruptive attempts to dethrone their products and services in the digital economy.
  • 2. 2 | P a g e | I n f o r m a t i o n ’ s R o l e i n D i s r u p t i o n s a n d t h e E x p l o i t a t i o n o f “ t h e T i p p i n g P o i n t ” Introduction In 2000, The Tipping Point was written by Malcolm Gladwell. It provided a framework for how and why small changes can result in great impacts in the marketplace. It further defined the magic formula for instituting a tipping point to influence the market in one’s favor. However, The Tipping Point was written prior to the existence of a thriving digital economy, where Facebook, Youtube, Snapchat, Google, Yelp, TripAdvisor and other sites provide a venue for launching content capable of serving up conditions ripe for a tipping point. They can equally serve up market turbulence to the benefit of no one. It is no longer feasible for organizations to put their head in the sand and presume that they are protected from any attempts through video, customer reviews because of the solid relationship they have with their customer base. It is also no surprise that video is the fastest growing form of media intended to influence consumers, with an increase of ad spend from 2.4% of total spend dedicated to video in 2013 to 4.4% of total spend in 2015 (eMarketer study, 2015). By understanding how the tipping point works and how clues to tipping points can be recognized from within the platforms participating in your digital events and those outside your digital ecosphere within social media (Facebook, Youtube, Snapchat, Yelp, Tripadvisor, etc.) and other digital sites, you can thrive in the digital economy. Disrupted Broadcasting The music, photographic and video broadcasting video broadcasting industries have been disrupted through the wide availability of digital services. This example focuses on the video broadcasting industries, but a similar case could be made for the music and photography industries (Columbia house could serve as a good example of the disruption of the music industry, and Kodak could serve as a good example of the disruption in the photographic industry). It is also no surprise that the video media has been disrupted, from core broadcasters (NBC, ABC, CBS) to Cable (HBO, Showtime, Disney, CNN, etc.) and now to internet supplied broadcasters (Sling TV, Netflix, Hulu, YouTube, Amazon, etc.), where the consumer has been thrust through a series of disruptions which provided greater control of media outlets, the cost of subscriptions and the portability of their subscriptions across the myriad of devices in their digital ecosphere. The advent of cable and the accessibility of everywhere available internet connectivity have provided the necessary ingredients to disrupt broadcasting. This series of disruptions have impacted most the revenue model of media carriers because of the ever-increased number of channels which can be used to carry an advertisement. Because the choices have increased, the ad revenue per minute has come under downward pressure. In 2013, internet based advertising ($42.8 Billion) surpassed broadcast revenue ($40.1 Billion) for the first time, with digital video advertising growing at 19% annually (IAB, 2013). It is exactly because information is the thing that is wielded in the music, photography and video broadcasting industries that makes the ability to wield tipping points through information in the digital
  • 3. 3 | P a g e | I n f o r m a t i o n ’ s R o l e i n D i s r u p t i o n s a n d t h e E x p l o i t a t i o n o f “ t h e T i p p i n g P o i n t ” economy such a powerful concept. But we first must understand exactly what a disruption is and how it manifests itself to be able to wield information to through tipping points to exploit it. What is a disruption? A disruption is something which provides a sufficiently greater benefit than the cost associated that makes it worthwhile for a consumer to consciously take action to shift their consumption of certain goods or services in favor of another. An example of a disruptive service is the Vonage phone service, which uses the internet in virtually all homes to displace the more traditional phone services available from the more traditional phone companies. In the case of Vonage, their inclusion of international service and bundling of mobile access to Vonage services outweighs the tried and true phone service from phone companies. Many have eliminated a home phone number all together and only utilize mobile phone service, this too is a disruption to the phone companies. Such actions require a change to the business models for participants in the marketplace. For those who have adopted Vonage or who have decided to eliminate their home phone service all together, a discounted service from the traditional carriers would likely be unsuccessful. Therefore, it is the business models and the value propositions and processes and assumptions supporting those value propositions that require retrofitting to a new marketplace, which in the case of our example, includes Vonage and no home phone service competing with legacy landline carriers. Other noted disruptions are those, like the iPod as a device used for utilizing digitally stored music, forever changing the music market and the core of assumptions used in the business models of participants selling music. Columbia House, a club devised to sell music media, was displaced in the market by digital music and the displacement of much of the need for owning music media. In the case of the iPod, music was easily acquired digitally and stored digitally on a small easy to use device with much larger capacities than their analog brethren (CDs, Walkman devices, etc.) and both displaced the need to acquire whole albums of music rather than only acquiring desired songs. What is a “tipping point”? According to Malcolm Gladwell (The Tipping Point, 2000), a tipping point is a moment where a trend, idea or social event tips into the limelight and spreads like wildfire. A tipping point can impact the behavior of consumers if the message positively or negatively impact their impression of the digital identity of the supplier. In the digital economy, a successful tipping point infects the potential digital consumers with a change of attitude beneficial to the outcome of digital commerce opportunities of the supplier. However, an unsuccessful tipping point or conflicting attempts to influence a customer can result in nothing more than turbulence, which generally muddies the waters of the digital commerce opportunities of all digital market participants. The tipping point agents are:
  • 4. 4 | P a g e | I n f o r m a t i o n ’ s R o l e i n D i s r u p t i o n s a n d t h e E x p l o i t a t i o n o f “ t h e T i p p i n g P o i n t ” • The law of the few is a description of how a handful of influencers through their actions make a big difference. An influencer is an independent voice that influences the actions of others. Early adopters are normally influencers. Crossing the Chasm (Geoffrey Moore, 1979) describes the process of the early majority being influenced by early adopters. The tipping point describes the point where the effort that influence is eased. • The stickiness factor. Stickiness in the digital economy is the ability for a message to be so memorable or influential that it compels action by a consumer. An extremely sticky message in the digital economy is one that goes viral. • The power of context. Context provides the potential consumer in the digital economy the necessary information to understand the conditions and circumstances of how they could benefit from the tipping point so that they could decide whether the benefits of adoption outweigh the costs of conversion. Social media changes the game because it is easier to launch tipping points through the likes of Youtube, Facebook and other environments that did not exist when The Tipping Point was written. Social media is an environment where the ingredients for launching a tipping point are put within reach of anyone if executed properly, making it much easier to engage influencers for the purpose of creating and navigating a tipping point. According a 2009 Yankelovich study, 76% of people believe that advertisers lie. They will represent their version beneficial to the advertiser whether or not there was fact backing up the advertisement. However, according to an April 2009 global Neilsen Online Global consumer study, influencers, who are independent from the advertiser, do not suffer from the same expected position of non-truth that advertisers portray. It is through social media that the word of influencers can reach potential consumers independently from suppliers or advertisers. However, if the independence is not believed in the social media post, the impact could be viewed as another source of advertising, potentially eroding customer value rather than the intended impact. Turbulence is a situation where multiple tipping points bombard the consumer thereby confusing the consumer, resulting in neither having the intended impact but both impacting the marketplace in a rather haphazard way. Using Antview concepts (Antview.com, 1999), through social media, if a tipping point is going to be successful, it is the job of the supplier: • Engage influencers (creators, critics and editors, connectors and collectors) with the necessary context to independently influence the marketplace • and monitor and measure the impact influencers have in influencing the remainder of the potential consumers in the marketplace (spectators and inactives). • It is the responsibility of the supplier to continually monitor the impact of influencers and adjust the content provided to them to create the intended tipping point and not create turbulence instead of a tipping point.
  • 5. 5 | P a g e | I n f o r m a t i o n ’ s R o l e i n D i s r u p t i o n s a n d t h e E x p l o i t a t i o n o f “ t h e T i p p i n g P o i n t ” • The overall activity and impact of the influencers should be monitored throughout the social media campaign. Figure 1 Antview concepts, 1999 What is a disruption cycle? A disruption cycle is the cycle that a disruption either through the introduction of an innovation or other means will have on the marketplace. Disruptions will follow four phases before resulting in a new market equilibrium, these being: • The period where a disruption is identified and market participants each individually determine their reaction to the disruption and executed their reaction plans in the marketplace. • The big bang, which is when the individual reaction plans are thwarted on the marketplace each having an impact. Collectively, the market will react to both the disruption and the actions of the market participants. There is a window of opportunity available to market participants, actions either of insufficient magnitude or out of phase with the frequency of the disruption will have no impact on the marketplace. The big bang is a period of an instable but rapidly expanding market as market participants quickly try to benefit from the disruption. • The big crunch, which is the period where the market has taken some action and the trajectory of the market begins to be visible. The disruptor begins to enter a mature steady state and others who have taken action during the big bang phase of the disruption either react to the new but smaller marketplace or get consolidated out of the market. • Finally, the disruption dissipates into a new market equilibrium. A tipping point is akin to a stone thrown into the disruption wave, causing ripples in the disruption wave. A small tipping point in a massive disruption wave is quickly dissipated because of the magnitude of the disruption wave, however if timed properly, could benefit the originator of the tipping point by impacting the disruption wave in their favor.
  • 6. 6 | P a g e | I n f o r m a t i o n ’ s R o l e i n D i s r u p t i o n s a n d t h e E x p l o i t a t i o n o f “ t h e T i p p i n g P o i n t ” • An example of a successful tipping point is a disruptor launching a social media campaign to accelerate the frequency of a disruption wave. Figure 2 The disruption cycle, InfoSight Partners, 2017 How “tipping points” impact disruption cycles? Tipping points are ripples in a disruption cycle. They slightly alter the frequency, magnitude and direction of a disruption wave. The timing of tipping points is critical. They can move edge dwellers of a disruption cycle in and out of the cycle. An understanding the current positioning of a disruption cycle is critical information for successful execution and survival of tipping points. Your perception of where you reside in a disruption cycle is critical. That means if you are an edge dweller and execute a tipping point you stand an equal chance of navigating yourself into the disruption wave or outside of the disruption cycle, the outcome is totally dependent on the accuracy of your perception. A sea of turbulence caused by the disruption cycle is all that is visible from the edge of the disruption cycle prior to the tipping point. How does information factor into disruption cycles and tipping points? If one finds themselves outside of the disruption cycle or desires to push some market participants outside of the disruption cycle, then the proper use of tipping points can ultimately yield the desired benefit. However, in order to orchestrate, those enlisting the use of tipping points must have the necessary information to monitor the impact of their tipping point attempts to ascertain if the outcome is one that is desired. Should it not be, turbulence can be expected, which blurs the boundaries of the tipping point and further complicates the successful navigation through a disruption cycle.
  • 7. 7 | P a g e | I n f o r m a t i o n ’ s R o l e i n D i s r u p t i o n s a n d t h e E x p l o i t a t i o n o f “ t h e T i p p i n g P o i n t ” The information required has many components which must be executed in tandem to be effective. These components are: • A keen understanding of the business models, including the assumptions, key processes and information supporting the business model, all of which will be used as key components of navigating both a disruption cycle and the tipping point. • A keen understanding of the disruption cycle and the impact on the assumptions and processes devised to achieve a value proposition within a business model. There will most probably be an equal distribution of organizations wo perceive the impact of a disruption because they are perceiving he disruption without being armed with a full complement of available information. In the digital economy, information will be made available from your internal systems, the logs created through your internal systems and your digital and mobile channels, the logs created by the platforms handling components of your digital ecosystem and the social media which influences participants in your digital content or commerce. Using information to fine tune perception about the disruption cycle is critical for navigating a tipping point correctly. • The current phase of the disruption cycle, namely whether the cycle is discovery waiting for market correction reactions, the big bang, the big crunch or dissipating into a new equilibrium. • The anticipated impact of a tipping point, analyzed in preparation of launching a tipping point through models of the marketplace. The greater the self-learning autonomous capabilities a model has, the more precise adjustment criteria can be in steering a tipping point and any turbulence strategies to the benefit of the organization. • Metrics to measure the success of the overall navigation process as a means of improving the execution of the models and the reaction time of the organization. Example 1 | Apple Apple has been one of the companies who have been most successful and copied for using social media, allowing the media to postulate the features of future releases of technology and, although never proven, launching leaks to the influencers as a means of using social media to launch tipping points to derive the market to their benefit. Apple has used this strategy on an annual basis for the iPad, the iPod, the iPhone, Apple TV and a host of other products too numerous to mention. In 2008, Apple sold 60 million Apps for the iPhone within 1 month of its introduction, and became the third largest handset supplier in the world due to the popularity of the iPhone. Apple successfully utilizes early adopters and “leaked” specs and other information about impending product launches as a vehicle to engage early adopters to virally spread information. This activity is specifically intended to influence the markets and create buzz for the new products, which also results in turbulence for everyone but Apple. In 2010, Apple used the same strategy for the launch of the iPad, and more than 300,000 iPads were sold on the first day they were available and 500,000 in the first introductory week.
  • 8. 8 | P a g e | I n f o r m a t i o n ’ s R o l e i n D i s r u p t i o n s a n d t h e E x p l o i t a t i o n o f “ t h e T i p p i n g P o i n t ” Example 2 | Cyber-Monday Shop.Org launched the concept of Cyber-Monday in 2005 to disrupt the traditional Black Friday with eCommerce sales, or the date that traditional brick and mortar retailers become profitable for the year. The concept was based on Tony Valado’s 2003 White Wednesday day, to sell flowers from 1800Flowers.com before florists could sell Thanksgiving flowers. The concept of Cyber-Monday survived and represents approximately $3.5 Billion of the holiday season sales on an annual basis, of course at the expense of sales occurring on Black Friday. The growth of Cyber Monday has been phenomenal, from $610 Million on November 26th , 2008 to $3.450 Billion on November 29, 2016, a five-fold increase since 2006. Example 3 | Shopping Malls Shopping malls have been on a decline for years with the advent of the digital economy, but there is the matter of the real estate and what to do with it that is of extreme importance to the owners of the shopping malls. A recent phenomenon has been occurring to transform the shopping mall from a place to shop to a center for entertainment, which houses the best restaurants, a myriad of entertainment opportunities, the largest cinema outlets and a host of other visionary changes to the definition of the shopping mall to maintain its viability. For example, aside from shopping venues, the Mall of America has a full-blown amusement park in the mall. Figure 3 Mall of America amusement park
  • 9. 9 | P a g e | I n f o r m a t i o n ’ s R o l e i n D i s r u p t i o n s a n d t h e E x p l o i t a t i o n o f “ t h e T i p p i n g P o i n t ” About the Author Mark Albala is the President of InfoSight Partners, L.L.C. Mark has served in a variety of information strategy, architecture and governance roles and has been an influential futurist in defining ways in which information could be wielded, and has been an active advocate of the disciplines of information economics and the acceptance and management of information as an organizational asset. Mark currently serves as an advisor to companies and analysts. Mark can be reached at mark@infosightpartners.com.