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Facebook Analytics for
Obsessive Compulsives
by @mediaczar
30 minutes of data wankery




                             1
Social Media has changed since the early days

              Search volume on key Social Media
               blogs   myspace   facebook     twitter




2005   2006     2007    2008     2009       2010        2011



                                                               2
European Web Usage




   85 billion
        user
 minutes/mo
          nth



  Data: comScore EMEA August 2011
                                    3
Marketers instinctively
misunderstand Facebook




                          4
How people use Facebook




                               Ignore, Like
         Login to     View                      Leave
                                   or
        Facebook    Newsfeed                  Facebook
                                Comment




                                                         5
How people use Client X’s Facebook Page


 Audience Activity             Day Part         Week Day            Competitor Activity



                                See Brand       Ignore, Like
                                                                     Leave
          Like Page              Posts in           or
                                                                   Facebook
                                Newsfeed         Comment



          Like source          First exposure   Responders

                                                     0.6%

                       36%


                                     99%

          0.6% attributed to       Estimate     Comments + Likes
           “on Page” Likes
                                                     DAU                           6
Response Windows

 50%

               91.4%
                                                              80% of responses
 40%                                                          within 3 hours.

 30%

                                                              90% within 6 hours
 20%




 10%




 0%
       0   6      12    18        24   30     36    42   48
                         Elapsed Hours

                 %age responses        cumulative



                                                                                   7
How people use Client X’s Facebook Page


 Audience Activity             Day Part         Week Day            Competitor Activity



                                See Brand       Ignore, Like
                                                                     Leave
          Like Page              Posts in           or
                                                                   Facebook
                                Newsfeed         Comment



          Like source          First exposure   Responders

                                                     0.6%

                       36%


                                     99%

          0.6% attributed to       Estimate     Comments + Likes
           “on Page” Likes
                                                     DAU                           8
How people use Client X’s Facebook Page

                                             åuwd   e     e    e
                                          edges e
                                             Newsfeed Algo




                               See Brand                Ignore, Like         See/Don’t
         Like Page              Post in                     or                See Next
                               Newsfeed                  Comment                Post



         Like source          First exposure            Responders         Ongoing Exposure

                                                              0.6%                 11%
                      36%


                                    99%

         0.6% attributed to       Estimate              Comments + Likes         DAU
          “on Page” Likes                                                        Total
                                                              DAU                             9
                                                                                 Fans
“We’re going to make
Facebook the hub of all our
activity”


                              10
Most people don’t visit the Page.


What are the
implications for                    All Fans
                                    100%
Page Tabs?                          470K




                                    MAU
                                    53%
                                    250K



         DAU
         11%
         52K

                                    Daily Page Visits (Unique)
                                    0.3%
                                    1.4K
                                                        11
How fan growth Affects Daily Active Users (DAU)

                    90                                 600                                11.60
        Thousands




                                                             Thousands
                    80                                                                    11.40
                                                       500
                    70                                                                    11.20


                                                                                          11.00                          R² = 0.598
                    60                                 400

                                                                                          10.80




                                                                                ln(DAU)
                    50




                                                                         Fans
  DAU




                                                       300
                                                                                          10.60
                    40

                                                                                          10.40
                    30                                 200
                                                                                          10.20
                    20
                                                       100                                10.00
                    10
                                                                                           9.80
                                                                                              12.50 12.60 12.70 12.80 12.90 13.00 13.10 13.20
                     0                                 0
                         Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug                                                              ln(Fans)


                    1% increase in fans leads to 1.65% increase in DAU
                                                                                                                                           12
                    (0.35% increase in MAU)
Unsubscribes grow strongly inline with fan growth

 250                                                                                 5.5
                                                                                                               y = 2.219x - 24.01
                                                                                                                   R² = 0.503

                                                        467,512                       5
 200



                                                                                     4.5




                                                                  ln(unsubscribes)
 150

   288,631
                                                                                      4

 100

                                                                                     3.5


  50
                                                                                      3



   0
                                                                                     2.5
       Feb   Mar   Apr    May        Jun          Jul   Aug                            12.5   12.6   12.7   12.8   12.9    13       13.1   13.2

                     Daily Unlikes         Fans                                                               ln(fans)



             1% increase in fans leads to 2.22% increase in Unsubscribes                                                                    13
What happens if we post more often?

 50%

               91.4%
                                                              80% of responses
 40%                                                          within 3 hours.

 30%

                                                              90% within 6 hours
 20%




 10%




  0%
       0   6      12    18        24   30     36    42   48
                         Elapsed Hours

                 %age responses        cumulative



                                                                                   14
Impressions grow strongly inline with post frequency

              3500                                                                                              15.5
  Thousands




                                                                                                                                   y = 1.108x + 11.63
                                                        21                                                       15
              3000                                                                                                                     R² = 0.943

                                                                                                                14.5
              2500                               17                 17
                                                                                                                 14




                                                                                       ln(7-day rolling imps)
              2000
                                                                                                                13.5
                                                                                  12

              1500                                                                                               13


                                                                                                                12.5
              1000

                                      4                                                                          12

               500
                                                                                                                11.5


                 0                                                                                               11
                     Jan       Feb     Mar      Apr     May      Jun        Jul                                        0   1             2               3    4

                           7-day rolling imps         7-day rolling posts                                                      ln(7-day rolling posts)



                                                                                                                                                             15
Reach grows inline with post frequency
            -1.4



            -1.6


                                                         y = 0.400x - 2.346
            -1.8                                             R² = 0.530



             -2
ln(reach)




            -2.2



            -2.4



            -2.6



            -2.8
                   0   0.2   0.4   0.6       0.8     1      1.2               1.4   1.6
                                         ln(posts)




                                                                                          16
..and so do unsubscribes
                           7.5

                                               y = 0.459x + 5.523
                                                   R² = 0.577
                            7
ln(7-day rolling unsubs)




                           6.5




                            6




                           5.5




                            5
                                 0   0.5   1         1.5                 2     2.5   3   3.5
                                                     ln(7-day rolling posts)




                                                                                               17
A Facebook Page isn’t a
community




                          18
Facebook Group 1




                   19
Is your Facebook Page really a “Community”?




                     Community        Hierarchy

                       Facebook                   20
“We just want to LISTEN”




                           21
Brand Page




             22
Retailer Page




                23
Waitrose’s Page, early November 2011




                                       24
What happened?




                 25
What happened?




                 26
Facebook isn’t your microsite

Facebook isn’t your forum

Facebook is your email list

Focus on News Feed optimisation

BTW (You’ll never have enough fans)
                                  27
@mediaczar

blog.magicbeanlab.com




                        28

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Measurement.ie

  • 1. Facebook Analytics for Obsessive Compulsives by @mediaczar
  • 2. 30 minutes of data wankery 1
  • 3. Social Media has changed since the early days Search volume on key Social Media blogs myspace facebook twitter 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2
  • 4. European Web Usage 85 billion user minutes/mo nth Data: comScore EMEA August 2011 3
  • 6. How people use Facebook Ignore, Like Login to View Leave or Facebook Newsfeed Facebook Comment 5
  • 7. How people use Client X’s Facebook Page Audience Activity Day Part Week Day Competitor Activity See Brand Ignore, Like Leave Like Page Posts in or Facebook Newsfeed Comment Like source First exposure Responders 0.6% 36% 99% 0.6% attributed to Estimate Comments + Likes “on Page” Likes DAU 6
  • 8. Response Windows 50% 91.4% 80% of responses 40% within 3 hours. 30% 90% within 6 hours 20% 10% 0% 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 Elapsed Hours %age responses cumulative 7
  • 9. How people use Client X’s Facebook Page Audience Activity Day Part Week Day Competitor Activity See Brand Ignore, Like Leave Like Page Posts in or Facebook Newsfeed Comment Like source First exposure Responders 0.6% 36% 99% 0.6% attributed to Estimate Comments + Likes “on Page” Likes DAU 8
  • 10. How people use Client X’s Facebook Page åuwd e e e edges e Newsfeed Algo See Brand Ignore, Like See/Don’t Like Page Post in or See Next Newsfeed Comment Post Like source First exposure Responders Ongoing Exposure 0.6% 11% 36% 99% 0.6% attributed to Estimate Comments + Likes DAU “on Page” Likes Total DAU 9 Fans
  • 11. “We’re going to make Facebook the hub of all our activity” 10
  • 12. Most people don’t visit the Page. What are the implications for All Fans 100% Page Tabs? 470K MAU 53% 250K DAU 11% 52K Daily Page Visits (Unique) 0.3% 1.4K 11
  • 13. How fan growth Affects Daily Active Users (DAU) 90 600 11.60 Thousands Thousands 80 11.40 500 70 11.20 11.00 R² = 0.598 60 400 10.80 ln(DAU) 50 Fans DAU 300 10.60 40 10.40 30 200 10.20 20 100 10.00 10 9.80 12.50 12.60 12.70 12.80 12.90 13.00 13.10 13.20 0 0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug ln(Fans) 1% increase in fans leads to 1.65% increase in DAU 12 (0.35% increase in MAU)
  • 14. Unsubscribes grow strongly inline with fan growth 250 5.5 y = 2.219x - 24.01 R² = 0.503 467,512 5 200 4.5 ln(unsubscribes) 150 288,631 4 100 3.5 50 3 0 2.5 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13 13.1 13.2 Daily Unlikes Fans ln(fans) 1% increase in fans leads to 2.22% increase in Unsubscribes 13
  • 15. What happens if we post more often? 50% 91.4% 80% of responses 40% within 3 hours. 30% 90% within 6 hours 20% 10% 0% 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 Elapsed Hours %age responses cumulative 14
  • 16. Impressions grow strongly inline with post frequency 3500 15.5 Thousands y = 1.108x + 11.63 21 15 3000 R² = 0.943 14.5 2500 17 17 14 ln(7-day rolling imps) 2000 13.5 12 1500 13 12.5 1000 4 12 500 11.5 0 11 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 0 1 2 3 4 7-day rolling imps 7-day rolling posts ln(7-day rolling posts) 15
  • 17. Reach grows inline with post frequency -1.4 -1.6 y = 0.400x - 2.346 -1.8 R² = 0.530 -2 ln(reach) -2.2 -2.4 -2.6 -2.8 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 ln(posts) 16
  • 18. ..and so do unsubscribes 7.5 y = 0.459x + 5.523 R² = 0.577 7 ln(7-day rolling unsubs) 6.5 6 5.5 5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 ln(7-day rolling posts) 17
  • 19. A Facebook Page isn’t a community 18
  • 21. Is your Facebook Page really a “Community”? Community Hierarchy Facebook 20
  • 22. “We just want to LISTEN” 21
  • 25. Waitrose’s Page, early November 2011 24
  • 28. Facebook isn’t your microsite Facebook isn’t your forum Facebook is your email list Focus on News Feed optimisation BTW (You’ll never have enough fans) 27

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Just looking at Europe, Facebook accounts for 85 BILLION European user minutes per month. If you were to go back in time 85 billion minutes, then the Neanderthals and wooly mammoths would still be around.
  2. This is the most common path through Facebook…
  3. Like Source: At least 36% of Likes in the past 6 months have come from Advertising. 0.6% attributed to “from Page”First exposure: assumes that (since recency has a heavy impact on EdgeRank) that 100% of posts get to News Feed, but that not everyone is there to see them. Early stage pages show very high correspondence between DAU and Total Fans.Data: Facebook Insights for 100 day period 1 June to 8 September 2011
  4. Like Source: At least 36% of Likes in the past 6 months have come from Advertising. 0.6% attributed to “from Page”First exposure: assumes that (since recency has a heavy impact on EdgeRank) that 100% of posts get to News Feed, but that not everyone is there to see them. Early stage pages show very high correspondence between DAU and Total Fans.Data: Facebook Insights for 100 day period 1 June to 8 September 2011
  5. Like Source: At least 36% of Pizza Hut Likes in the past 6 months have come from Advertising. 0.6% attributed to “from Page”First exposure: assumes that (since recency has a heavy impact on EdgeRank) that 100% of posts get to News Feed, but that not everyone is there to see them. Early stage pages show very high correspondence between DAU and Total Fans.Data: Facebook Insights for 100 day period 1 June to 8 September 2011
  6. 100 day average
  7. ((although, as a proportion, these are lower – 0.5 % a/c Thomas G.))
  8. 1 to 2 posts = 100% increase in posts – 46% increase in unsubs