Possible lessons from the campaign trail will be explored by Will Feltus, SVP for media research at National Media, the Alexandria, Virginia media agency that has handled national television planning and placement for the last three successful Republican presidential campaigns. The rare agency executive who manages both consumer and political accounts, Feltus argues that consumer and political marketing are very different. But once those differences are understood, Feltus believes both consumer and political advertisers can learn from one another.
2. 2
After 2016, can consumer advertisers
learn anything from political campaigns?
Will Feltus
Senior Vice President
National Media Research, Planning and Placement LLC
Alexandria VA
3. 3
OVERVIEW
1. How Consumer Advertising and
Political Advertising are Different
2. What They have in Common:
The Political Consumers Model
3. Can Consumer and Political
Advertisers Learn Anything from One
Another in 2017?
5. 5
Academic appearance by Trump TV
buyer Ben Angle draws angry barbs
from California college students as they
enjoy a catered buffet dinner in D.C.,
February 2017.
“Ask Me How
I’ve Ben
Affected by
Trump’s Media”
“You Contributed
to the
Dissemination
of HATE”
“EVERYONE
Is Welcome Here”
Trump Media Buyer Greeted by College Students
6. HOW THEY ARE DIFFERENT
Consumer and Political Advertising:
7. 7
PUBLIC SCRUTINY
Consumer campaigns
take care to avoid
potential negative
reactions.
Low levels of public and
news interest.
Political campaigns
expect negative
reactions (and love to
be criticized by the
losers.)
High levels of public
and news interest.
8. 8
PURCHASE OPPORTUNITY
Consumer Marketers
The store or website will be
open again tomorrow.
Political Marketers
The store is only open for
one day (or a few weeks
for absentee and early
voting) then closed
forever.
9. 9
TRACKING WHAT’S WORKING
Consumer Marketers
have daily sales and
customer level purchase
data.
Political Marketers
have a secret ballot
problem.
10. 10
MEASURING SUCCESS AND ROI
Consumer campaigns
can be very profitable
with single digit market
shares.
Political campaigns
ultimately fail if they
are not #1 in their
category.
11. 11
PLANNING HORIZONS AND PRICING
Consumer campaigns
can plan over multiple quarters
with price negotiating leverage
and audience guarantees.
There’s always next quarter.
Spot costs and CPM’s are stable
Political campaigns have
uncertain cash flows and are
typically funded on a week-
by-week basis. Must pay
unpredictable market rates
with cash upfront. No
guarantees or makegoods on
ratings.
Multi-tiered rate cards
change constantly
12. 12
POLITICAL MEDIA PLANNERS ALWAYS FACE RISING COSTS…
… and deal with a complicated and
federally regulated sellside market.
• Political advertisers are constantly pre-
empted by other political advertisers
willing to pay more.
• The so-called candidate “lowest unit
rate” is obtuse at the local market
level, and available only 45 days prior
to a primary and 60 days prior to a
general election.
• Non-candidate ”Super Pac’s” are
forced by TV and cable outlets to pay
3x-4x the candidate rate.
• There’s no confidentiality – all political
ad orders must be publically disclosed.
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
WMURTV
BurlingtonDMATV
CostperRatingPoint:Adults35–64
FIGURE 5.1
PoliticalAdvertisers Bid UpWMUR Rates during 2007 –2008 Presidential Primary Campaign
Source: Analysisof advertisingratespreparedbyNational Media ResearchPlanningandPlacement LLC.
itsbest advertisers, for example, alargelocal automobiledealership. TheLURrule
Feb
20-25
M
ar 12-18
M
ar 19-25
Apr 4-10
Feb
26-M
ar 4
M
ay 2-8
M
ay 23-29
Jun
13-19
July 4-10
July 18-24
Aug 1-7
Aug 30-Sep
4
Sep
22-25
Oct 3-9
Oct 24-30
Nov 14-20
Dec 5-11
Dec 26-Jan
8
WMUR’s presidential
candidate rates up 200% in
11 months before New
Hampshire primary.
14. 14
MESSAGING AND TRAFFIC
Political campaigns constantly
create new ad content and
want it up the same day.
From September to November,
Clinton and her Democratic allies
aired 137 spots. Trump and
Republican allies aired 80.
CLINTON CAMPAIGN TRUMP CAMPAIGN
Positive 20 Positive 10
Contrast 25 Contrast 11
Negative 25 Negative 10
DEMOCRAT THIRD-PARTY REPUPLICAN THIRD-PARTY
Positive 2 Positive 4
Contrast 8 Contrast 9
Negative 58 Negative 36
15. 15
During June-August, Clinton and her allies spent an estimated $127 million
on TV versus Trump and allies total of $24 million. Trump spend was only
18% of Clinton.
Gap narrowed in September-November when Trump spend was 69% of
Clinton.
2016 PRESIDENTIAL AD SPENDING
Sept-Nov Estimated Gross Spend in Millions CLINTON CAMPAIGN CLINTON ALLIES CLINTON COMBINED TRUMP CAMPAIGN TRUMP ALLIES TRUMP COMBINED
TRUMP $$
AS A % OF
CLINTON
Network Broadcast and Cable $52.0 26% $0 - $52.0 19% $34.6 25% $11.5 22% $46.1 24% 89%
Local Broadcast and Cable $150.0 74% $73.3 100% $223.3 81% $101.1 75% $41.9 78% $143.0 76% 64%
Total $202.0 100% $73.3 100% $275.3 100% $135.7 100% $53.4
100
%
$189.1
100
%
69%
Remember: Each third-party allied dollar is worth only 1/3 – to – 1/4 of a candidate dollar.
16. 16
MANAGEMENT
Consumer campaigns
are long term, and run
by experienced brand
managers and vice-
presidents of
advertising.
Political campaigns are
short term organizations
and don’t have vice-
presidents of advertising.
18. 18
MANAGEMENT
Some presidential and national party campaigns have used
separate media and creative teams.
Client
Creative &
Account Mgt.
Client
Media
Team
Traditional Political Model Current Consumer Model
Creative
Team
Media
Buyer
Bush 2000, 2004 and Trump 2016 used
independent creative and media teams.
McCain 2008 and Romney 2012 did not.
20. 20
MARKETING IS ONLY PART OF WHAT CAMPAIGN MANAGERS DO
CAMPAIGN
MANAGER
as:
Entrepreneur
and
Chief Financial
Officer
Team
Builder
Marketing
Maven
Field
General
Press
Spinner
Political
Historian and
Data Scientist
Strategy
Enforcer
Scriptwriter
and Stage
Manager
Policy
Wonk
Candidate
Confidant and
Concierge
Managing Inside
the Campaign
Managing Outside
the Campaign
Ten Key Roles the Campaign Manager Must Play
21. 21
CONTROL OF INFORMATION FLOW
Consumer campaigns and
brands are infrequently
affected by unanticipated
outside information
sources.
Political campaigns and
candidates are
continually disrupted by
information sources
beyond their control.
News events and reporting,
opposition candidates, pro-
and anti- third party groups
25. 25
KEY TARGETING VARIABLES: VOTER TURNOUT AND
PARTISANSHIP
1.) Consumption: Turnout Index
2.) Brand: Party Index
DEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
HIGHTURNOUTLOWTURNOUTVoterTurnoutIndex
Party Index
26. 26
ADULT VOTING PROPENSITY BY PARTY AFFILIATION: 2014-
16
14.3% 4.5% 4.5% 3.4% 5.2% 14.4%
7.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 2.7% 5.5%
6.0% 2.3% 2.4% 14.0% 1.4% 2.9%
Scarborough USA 2015/2016 Release 2 (Aug 2014 – Nov 2016), N=408,708
SometimesVotesStatewide
24.7%
AlwaysVote
Statewide46.3%
NeverVotes
Statewide29%
Democrat
27.6%
Independent, but feel
closer to Democrat
9.9%
None of these
20.4%
Independent, but feel closer
to Republican
9.3%
Republican
22.8%
Independent
10.1%
27. 27
MEDIA HEAVINESS: TOP TWO QUINTILES
TV - Top 40%
Radio - Top 40% Internet - Top 40%
Newspaper - Top 40%
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
LOWTURNOUTHIGHTURNOUTVoterTurnoutIndex
High Turnout Democrat Voters High Turnout Republican Voters
Low Turnout Democrat Voters Low Turnout Republican Voters
Scarborough USA+ 2015/2016 Release 2
(Aug 2014-Nov 2016) N= 408,708
28. 28
MEDIA HEAVINESS: TV
TV Top 20%
TV Second 20%
TV Bottom 60%
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
LOWTURNOUTHIGHTURNOUTVoterTurnoutIndex
High Turnout Democrat Voters High Turnout Republican Voters
Low Turnout Democrat Voters Low Turnout Republican Voters
Scarborough USA+ 2015/2016 Release 2
(Aug 2014-Nov 2016) N= 408,708
29. 29
THE EXPANDING PARTISAN CABLE NEWS UNIVERSE: 2000 -
2016
2000
11%
2004
13%2008
11%
2012
9%
2016
8%
2000
17%
2004
26%
2008
26%
2012
22%
2016
18%
2000
34.4%
2004
27.1%
2008
25.8%
2012
20.7%
2016
19.3%
100
110
120
130
140
150
-100 -75 -50 -25 0 25 50 75 100 125 150
LOWERTURNOUT
HIGHER
TURNOUT
VoterTurnoutIndex
Differences between Republican and Democrat Indexes
DEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
More Democratic Audience More Republican Audience
In 2000 all three news nets had center-
right audiences
30. 30
VOTER TURNOUT & PARTISANSHIP: CABLE NETWORKS
ESPN
History
Discovery
A&E
CNN
FOX News
T…
USA
HGTV
Weather
Food Net
AMC
Hallmark
Lifetime FX
Nat Geo
TNT
Disney Ch
Animal Planet
Cooking Ch
Comedy Central
Syfy
FOX Sports 1
Freeform
TCM
TLC
Spike
MSNBC
Bravo
LMN
MTV
NFL Net
TV Land
CNBC
FOX Sports Net
E!
Travel
Nick
CMT
Adult Swim
Cartoon Net
DIY Net
Golf Ch
GSN
HLN
MLB Net
Nick at Nite
WGN America
NBCSN
IFC
Destination America
Boomerang
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
LOWERTURNOUT
HIGHER
TURNOUT
VoterTurnoutIndex
31. 31
VOTER TURNOUT & PARTISANSHIP: NEWSLOWERTURNOUT
HIGHER
TURNOUT
VoterTurnoutIndex
ABC World News Tonight
BBC World News
Anderson Cooper 360°
CBS Evening News
Face the Nation
CBS Morning News
CBS Sunday Morning
CBS This Morning
Fox and Friends
Hannity
The Kelly File
The O'Reilly Factor
Fox News Sunday
GMA
Nancy Grace
NBC Meet the Press NBC Nightly News
Nightly Business Report
PBS NewsHour
America This Morning
This Week with George
Stephanopoulos
Today Show
90
110
130
150
170
190
-140 -90 -40 10 60 110 160 210
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
GfK MRI 2016, N= 48,273
32. 32
VOTER TURNOUT & PARTISANSHIP: PRIMETIME TVLOWERTURNOUT
HIGHER
TURNOUT
VoterTurnoutIndex
America's Got Talent
American Crime American Ninja Warrior
Aquarius
Beyond the Tank
Black-ish
Blindspot
Celebrity Family Feud
Chicago Med
Code Black
Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders
Dr. Ken
Empire
Fresh Off the Boat
How to Get Away with Murder
iZombie
Jane the Virgin
Last Comic Standing
Legends of Tomorrow
Life in Pieces
Little Big Shots
Lucifer
Lucky Dog
Madam Secretary
NCIS: New Orleans
Outer Limits
Quantico
Rosewood
Scorpion
Secrets and Lies
Shades of Blue
Supergirl
The 100
The Catch
The Flash
The Last Man on Earth
The Night Shift
The Odd Couple
The X-FilesWhose Line is it Anyway?
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
-140 -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
LOWTURNOUTHIGHTURNOUTVoterTurnoutIndex
GfK MRI 2016, N= 48,273
33. CAN THEY LEARN ANYTHING
FROM ONE ANOTHER IN
2017?
Consumer and Political Advertising:
35. 35
VOTER TURNOUT AND PARTISANSHIP: RETAIL
Sherwin Williams
Dick's Sporting GoodsPottery Barn
Lowe's
Eddie Bauer
TalbotsBed Bath & Beyond
Chico's
Costco
American Eagle Outfitters
Ann Taylor
Walmart
Williams-Sonoma
Crate & Barrel
Pier 1 Imports
Trader Joe's
Nordstrom
Macy's
Neiman Marcus
Whole Foods Market
Victoria's Secret
Ralphs
Lord & Taylor
Bloomingdale's
Saks Fifth Avenue
Foot Locker
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
GfK MRI 2016, N= 48,273
VoterTurnoutIndex
36. 36
VOTER TURNOUT AND PARTISANSHIP: RESTAURANTSVoterTurnoutIndex
Cracker Barrel
Outback Steakhouse
Chili's Grill & Bar
Ruby Tuesday
Buffalo Wild Wings
CiCi's Pizza
International House of
Pancakes (IHOP)
Village Inn Restaurant
Uno Chicago Grill
T.G.I. Friday's
Dave & Buster's
Benihana
Chick-Fil-A
Whataburger
Arby's
Panera Bread
Krystal
Papa John's
Subway
Wendy's
StarbucksMcDonald's
Burger King
Carl's Jr.
Domino's
Chipotle Mexican Grill
Jack in the Box
Boston Market
Popeyes Chicken
Au Bon Pain
Rally's
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
GfK MRI 2016, N= 48,273
37. 37
IDENTIFYING OPINION LEADERS: ELITES AND
INFLUENCERS
If corporate reputation is important to your client, learn
how to reach well-informed
and highly-involved opinion leaders.
10% - 25% of American adults
39. 39
ELITES AND INFLUENCERS: SPORTS
Super Bowl
NFL playoffs
Monday Night Football
Sunday Night Football
Thursday Night Football
World Series
Olympics
MLB playoffs
NBA playoffs
NBA Finals
NCAA Men's Tournament
PGA TOUR (men's golf)
Horse racing
Figure skating
Stanley Cup playoffs
Ultimate Fighting
Championship (UFC)
Pro boxing
Women's tennis (WTA)
Men's tennis (ATP)
WWE (pro wrestling)
Pro Bull Riding (PBR)
U.S. Soccer National Team
European soccer
Fishing
Regular season MLB
Tournament poker
NHRA Drag Racing
Pro rodeo
Formula One (F1) racing
LPGA Tour (women's golf)
Extreme/action sports
Regular season NBA
NCAA Women's Tournament
Supercross/Motocross
PBA (pro bowling)
Regular season NHL
High school sportsPro surfing
Pro/college lacrosse
80
100
120
140
160
180
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
Sports watched in the past 12 months
Scarborough USA+ 2016 Release 2
Aug 2015-Nov 2016, N=204,314
Elites+InfluencersIndex
41. Vodka
Bud Light
Rum
Tequila
Bourbon whiskey
Coors Light
Corona
Miller Lite
Budweiser
Blue Moon
Samuel Adams
Heineken
Any microbrew
Merlot
White Zinfandel
Gin
Cabernet Sauvignon
Scotch whisky
Chardonnay
Michelob Ultra
Canadian whiskey
Pinot Grigio
Guinness
Brandy
Stella Artois
Corona Light
Miller High Life
Pinot Noir
Dos Equis
Cognac
Miller Genuine Draft
Red Zinfandel
Any malt liquor
Natural Light
Busch LightTecate
Coors Original
Rolling Rock
Shiraz/Syrah
Busch
Amstel Light
Labatt Blue
Michelob Light
Sauvignon Blanc
Milwaukee's Best
Brut/Brut Extra Dry
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
-80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Political Happy Hour
HIGHTURNOUTLOWTURNOUTVoterTurnoutIndex
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEWCopyright 2013 W. Feltus & NMRPP LLC
41
42. Bud Light
Budweiser
Blue Moon
Corona Extra
Jose Cuervo
Samuel Adams
Grey Goose
Coors Light
Absolut
Heineken
Barefoot
Jack Daniel's
Mike's Hard Lemonade
Coors
Yuengling
Miller Lite
Corona Light
Patrón
Capt. Morgan
Yellow Tail
Bud Light Lime-A-Rita
Smirnoff Ice
Stella Artois
Jameson
Dos Equis
Crown Royal
Kendall-Jackson
Miller High Life
Sutter Home
Bailey's Orig. Irish Cream
Beringer
Malibu Coconut
Woodbridge
1800 Tequila
Michelob UltraShock Top
Jim Beam
Guinness Draught
Robert Mondavi
Tanqueray
Bacardi Gold
Smirnoff No. 21
Pabst Blue Ribbon
Maker's Mark
Skyy
Sierra Nevada
Svedka
Leinenkugel's
Chateau Ste. Michelle
Arbor Mist
Korbel
Kahlúa
Modelo Especial
Newcastle
Michelob
Miller
Busch
Martini & Rossi
Ketel One
Don Julio
Ménage à Trois
Gallo
Pinnacle
Bombay Sapphire
Moët & Chandon
Rolling Rock
Budweiser Select
Tecate
Twisted Tea
Andre
Shiner Bock
Pacifico
Amstel Light
Jägermeister
Franzia
Oak Leaf
Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Honey
Three Olives
Red Stripe
Blackstone
Mike's Hard Tea
Evan Williams
Knob Creek
Becks
Seagram's
Stolichnaya
Black Box
Canadian Club
George Killian's Irish Red
Beefeater
Bombay
Ravenswood
Landshark Lager
Michelob Light
Natural Light
Keystone
Jacob's Creek
Gentleman Jack
Concha y Toro
Cazadores
Gordon's
Chandon
Pilsner Urquell
Hendrick's
Milwaukee's Best
Red Stag
St. Pauli Girl
Skinnygirl
Admiral Nelson’s
Manischewitz
Appleton Estate
Select 55
60
80
100
120
140
160
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
High Turnout Democrat Voters High Turnout Republican Voters
Low Turnout Democrat Voters Low Turnout Republican Voters
Politics of Alcohol Beverage
Consumers
Gfk MRI 2015 Doublebase Study
(n = 48,168)
Republican Index Minus Democrat IndexDEMOCRAT SKEW REPUBLICAN SKEW
LOWTURNOUTHIGHTURNOUTVoterTurnoutIndex
High Turnout Democrat Voters High Turnout Republican Voters
Low Turnout Democrat Voters