Monthly hotel forecasts for key UK and German markets. New reports launched as result of predictive intelligence collaboration between e-forecasting.com and HotStats. Hotel market forecasts highlights for April for following markets: Berlin, Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, Frankfurt, Glasgow, Liverpool, London, Manchester, Munich, Newcastle, Provincial UK and Total UK.

1. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next
UK & German Monthly Hotel
Market Forecast
April Highlights
Presented by
E-forecasting.com & HotStats

2. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next
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Monthly Hotel Forecasts
 Launched in June 2013,
e−forecasting.com and HotStats
develop market Monthly Hotel
Forecasts of key UK and German
markets
 More markets in Europe and MENA to
follow in the coming months

3. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next
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Current Forecast Markets
 Berlin
 Birmingham
 Bristol
 Cardiff
 Frankfurt
 Glasgow
 Liverpool
 London
 Manchester
 Munich
 Newcastle
 Provincial UK
 Total UK

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Monthly Hotel Forecast
Reports
 Historic hotel market data from powerful HotStats database
 24 month forecast, 8 quarters out, 2 years out
 Key metrics: occupancy, ADR, RevPAR
 Proprietary hotel metrics:
– HIP - hotel industry pulse
– HIL - hotel industry leading indicator
– FTLI – foreign travel leading indicator
– Monthly GDP
 Additional econometric insights:
– Labor market conditions
– Inflation
– Exchange and interest rates
– Energy prices
– Special events

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UK Hotel Market Forecast
April Highlights
 UK countrywide 2 year forecast:
– Increase 1.9% in 2014 and 2.2% in 2015
– Long term economic growth = 2.2%
 Monetary policy: Euro refinancing rate
down, due to rising inflation, all other
key rates on hold
 Oil prices: WTI & Brent prices lowering
 Financial futures: US dollar and British
Pound mixed

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UK Hotel Market Forecast
April Highlights
 UK HIP – up 2.4%
 UK HIL – up 1.7%
 Probability of upcoming recession: 34.9%
 UK Monthly GDP – down 0.1%
 UK FTLI up 0.2%
 Consumer prices up 2.4%
 Unemployment rate at 7.8%
 Consumer confidence down
 Business executives less optimistic
 Builders showing lower expectations

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UK Hotel Forecast Highlights
Market 2014 RevPAR
Forecast
2015 RevPAR
Forecast
Birmingham (0.2%) 2.1%
Bristol (0.1%) 1.7%
Cardiff (3%) (0.1%)
Glasgow (0.3%) (3.2%)
Liverpool 3.8% 2.7%
London (2.8%) (0.2%)
Manchester (1.9%) (0.2%)
Newcastle 6.6% 2.4%
Provincial UK 0.1% (0.2%)
Total UK (2.8%) 0%

8. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next
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German Hotel Market Forecast
April Highlights
 German countrywide 2 year forecast:
– Increase 1.9% in 2014 and 2.0% in 2015
– Long term economic growth = 1.7%
 Monetary policy: Euro refinancing rate
down, due to rising inflation, all other
key rates on hold
 Oil prices: WTI & Brent prices lowering
 Financial futures: US dollar and Euro
mixed

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German Hotel Market Forecast
April Highlights
 German HIP – flat
 German HIL – up 0.8%
 Probability of upcoming recession: 25.6%
 German Monthly GDP – up 0.1%
 German FTLI up 0.1%
 Consumer prices up 1.4%
 Unemployment rate at 5.4%
 Consumer confidence up
 Business executives less optimistic
 Builders showing lower expectations

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German Hotel Forecast
April Highlights
Market 2014 RevPAR
Forecast
2015 RevPAR
Forecast
Berlin (8.4%) 0.3%
Frankfurt (4.7%) (0.4%)
Munich (12.9%) (1.1%)

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For More Information
 Monthly hotel forecast highlights
were taken from the May issue of
Monthly Hotel Forecasts, please visit:
– http://www.e-forecasting.com or email
info@e-forecasting.com for subscription
rates and queries on additional markets