This presentation shows how a simple mission and operations planning process (M&OP) can be combined with a cost-effective supply chain simulation tool to plan and coordinate actual humanitarian and disaster response missions. This same combination also provides an effective online training platform. A scenario depicting the simulated evacuation of refugees from war torn Aleppo in Syria is used to illustrate these points.

1. 1ITEC Conference 2017, Rotterdam
Mission & Operations Planning Using
Supply Chain Modeling and Simulation
Dr. Dennis Duke - Florida Institute of Technology
Mr. Michael Hugos – SCM Globe Corporation
Mr. William Morrissey (Col. US Army, Ret) – RDM Corporation
Tactical Mission Planning in Humanitarian
Response Situations

2. 2ITEC Conference 2017, Rotterdam
Syria Conflict Map (Summer, 2016)
The authors combined supply chain
modeling and simulation with a 5-step
planning process to drive creation of
mission plans for mass refugee exodus
from Aleppo, Idlib and Marat Numan to
a safe haven near Homs, Syria.
Scenario planning based on:
• Mission and operations planning
(M&OP) process
• Commercial off the shelf (COTS)
software for supply chain
modeling and simulation
• This process is also used for
coordination and monitoring of
events as they happen.
• Training of people and
organizations participating in
humanitarian missions is
enhanced by use of this
process.

3. 3ITEC Conference 2017, Rotterdam
Mission & Operations Planning (M&OP)
1.
Mission
Orders
2.
Demand
Planning
3.
Supply
Planning
4.
Reconcile
Plans
(Run Simulations)
5.
Implement
and Monitor
(Evaluate Options)
Every 15 days (or as needed)
Demand Plan:
- Product specs
- Facility demands
Supply Plan:
- Vehicle specs
- Delivery Routes
Logistics Plan:
Effective logistics
plan for 15+ days
• Based on supply chain S&OP process modified to fit
needs of humanitarian / disaster response missions
• CONOPS drives demand and supply planning
• Supply chain simulations show how well these plans work
• Use simulation results to adjust Supply Plan and Demand
Plan so product supply meets mission demand
CONOPS:
- Scope/Facilities
- Personnel
Operating Cost:
Operating budget
and performance
metrics
(Products, Facilities) (Vehicles, Routes)
Supply Chain Modeling
& Simulation

4. 4ITEC Conference 2017, Rotterdam
STEP 1. Mission Orders: Concept of Operations (CONOPS)
Tartus
Port
Homs Safe Haven
Hamah Operating Base
Marat
Numan
Idlib
Aleppo
Facilities:
Refugee Camp
Military Operating
Base (FOB)
Main Operating
Base and Airport
Carrier Task Force
Humanitarian and military facilities
constructed by JTF-51 to be
turned over to UN and PK units
CTF
CTF
DODAF ConOps – OV-1
Concept diagram for mission

5. 5ITEC Conference 2017, Rotterdam
STEP 2: Demand Planning: PRODUCTS and FACILITIES
CTF & APS
Supply Ships
Tartus Port
1,760 Military
Homs Safe Haven
1,000 Military
Hamah Ops Base &
Airfield 5,950 Military
Murat Numan
2,150 Soldiers
Idlib
950 Soldiers
Aleppo
950 Soldiers
Military Facilities
Tartus
Port
Transit
Only
Homs Safe Haven
500,000 Refugees
Hamah Triage Ctr
30,000 Refugees/Day
Murat Numan
30,000 Refugees/Day
Idlib
10,000 Refugees/Day
Civilian Facilities
Aleppo
10,000 Refugees/Day
• Identify location of facilities and activities specified in mission CONOPS
• 10 Classes of products are needed at military and civilian facilities
• Calculate product demand at each facility to support military and civilian personnel
assigned to each facility – see military and UNHCR daily per person standards

6. 6ITEC Conference 2017, Rotterdam
STEP 2: Demand Planning: Product and Facility Data
PRODUCTS (MIL
and CIV)
Name Price Weight
(kg)
Size
(m3)
Define product data
for fully loaded 20
Foot Cargo
Container
Class I:
Rations
$38,400 9,500 kg 34 m3
Class II:
Clothing, Equip
$24,000 10,500 kg 34 m3
etc.
FACILITY Name Type Storage Rent Ops Cost
Define data for
each facility
Aleppo FOB 2,000 m3 $0.1/ m3 $180,000
Idlib FOB 2,000 m3 $0.1/ m3 $230,000
etc.
FACILITY -
PRODUCT
Product Name Demand
(20’ Ctr)
Production
(20’ Ctr)
On-Hand
(20’ Ctr)
Define for each
product at each
facility
Class I: Rations 1 3
Class II: Clothing 1 2
etc.
Simple
data sets
define
Products
and
Facilities

7. 7ITEC Conference 2017, Rotterdam
STEP 3. Supply Planning : VEHICLES and ROUTES
• Use available vehicles to move people and products between facilities to meet daily demands
• Define delivery schedules and routes for the vehicles serving each facility
Mission Route Map and Positioning of Vehicles

8. 8ITEC Conference 2017, Rotterdam
STEP 3. Supply Planning : Vehicle and Route Data
VEHICLE Name Type Carry Volume Max Weight Speed
per Hr
Ops Cost
per km
Delay -
Depart
Define data
for each
vehicle – CIV
and MIL
Rail Freight CIV 130 m3 63,000 65 $0.50 6
Large Truck CIV 110 m3 10,000 45 $1.50 8
etc.ROUTE Name Vehicle Distance Time
Define vehicle
routes (each
vehicle has one
or more routes)
Tartus - Homs Rail Freight (calculated) (calculated)
Hamah - Idlib Trucks - 20 (calculated) (calculated)
etc.
ROUTE - PRODUCT Name Facility/Stop Drop Qty Pickup Qty
Define product drop qty for
each product at each
facility on a route
Rations Homs CIV 20
Clothing Homs CIV 12
etc.
Simple data sets enable accurate modeling and simulations of proposed humanitarian or
military supply chains anywhere in the world

9. 9ITEC Conference 2017, Rotterdam
STEP 4. Reconcile Plans: Build Supply Chain Model
• Demand Plan provides data for: 1) PRODUCTS; 2) FACILITIES and product demand
• Supply Plan provides data for: 3) VEHICLES; and 4) ROUTES and product delivery qty
• Use this data to build initial supply chain model for disaster response mission

10. 10ITEC Conference 2017, Rotterdam
STEP 4. Reconcile Plans: Run Simulations – Fix Problems
Simulate
operations to find
points of failure
Fix problems and
explore options
Mission commander
can do “what if”
analysis
Supply chain design
that works best in
simulation becomes
operating plan!

11. 11ITEC Conference 2017, Rotterdam
STEP 4. Reconcile Plans: Analyze Simulation Data
• Simulations generate data for analysis in printed reports and onscreen displays
• Define delivery schedules and routes for the vehicles serving each facility

12. 12ITEC Conference 2017, Rotterdam
STEP 5: Implement and Monitor: Collaboration
• Cloud-based collaboration platform accessible to all (PCs, laptops, Internet)
• Real-time visibility of problems as they arise, drives consensus and effective action
• Data collection from participant organization computer systems and mobile devices
• Map-based user interface to organize streams of data - Situational Awareness

13. 13ITEC Conference 2017, Rotterdam
STEP 5. Implement and Monitor: Operations
• Continuous planning and simulations to respond to new situations as mission unfolds…
• Operations team uses M&OP and simulations to coordinate ongoing mission operations
Monitor
events, update
simulations
based on new
data from field
operations
“No plan survives
contact with the enemy”

14. 14ITEC Conference 2017, Rotterdam
Mission Planning Using Supply Chain Simulations
Material in this presentation is discussed in greater detail in our paper titled
“Operation Inherent Rescue: A Humanitarian Supply Chain Simulation for
the Evacuation of Refugees from Aleppo, Syria” - available on the ITEC 17
Conference website
We are interested to hear your questions and comments:
• Dr. Dennis Duke - Florida Institute of Technology – dduke@fit.edu
• Mr. Michael Hugos – SCM Globe Corporation – mhugos@scmglobe.com
• Mr. William Morrissey (Col. US Army, Ret) – RDM Corporation -
wjmorrissey@gmail.com
SCM Globe supply chain modeling and simulation software (www.scmglobe.com) was used in
this project. It is a cloud-based application currently used in universities and training
programs worldwide. Companies are using it to model real supply chains and explore
options for improvement.